Tokyo reports 12,693 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 72,646

It might be helpful to have a graph to look at instead of people at a crossroads or whatever the usual picture is.

I look at this graph:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/#graph-deaths-daily

I still make that a 76% positivity rate of the number of tests conducted yesterday.

Can you explain how you calculated those numbers, since variant by patient data is not complete, ie., they do not test all positive patients for the specific variant.

This meta-analysis article shows the mortality rates for alpha, beta, gamma, and delta variants.

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.775224/full

To put it in numbers, omicron is significantly less lethal than previous variants. On a case fatality basis, 2.8% for alpha, 0.4% for delta, and 0.07% for omicron. The least deadly variant we've seen in Japan.

omicron is less deadly than other variants on a CFR basis.

It is far deadlier on a deaths per capita basis, however. Statistics presented in isolation rarely give an accurate picture (a criticism that swings both ways).

Commodore flag

1) The technique ignores the fact that two or more variants were present in a population at any given time. Replacement isn’t instantaneous but gradual.

2) if the data is a composite of vaccinated and unvaccinated people who tested positive for any of the variants, then of course, you would see a higher death rate for alpha, because there was no vaccine or effective treatments available at the time when alpha predominated.

3) the data needs to be parsed based on vax status for it to have any meaning.

Commodore flag

regarding point 3)

Problem is, you have two distinct populations when that was vaccinated and one that was not vaccinated. Therefore you have a treatment by variant interaction that’s going to confound anything that you could interpret as a decrease in mortality.

in addition people who received the vaccine are less likely to develop extreme symptoms and so the data on them is lacking as they never even went to the hospital or were tested.

The number of coronavirus-related deaths reported nationwide was 235.

Sigh

5600 is by far and away the deadliest month .

Out of around 24,000 since the start of the epidemic in Japan

Well, my argument was about overall lethality of a variant/wave based on looking at a graph. Can look at it up and down or side to side, right? :)

Precisely what I'm saying.

What's there is overall lethality not just cfr.

It's actual body count for the population not likelihood of an individual dying

Another dramatic increase. So much for bold predictions. All these patently false statements and outright fabrications of common knowledge facts . Omicron is the deadliest variant of Covid in Japan to date. PERIOD. Children leading the daily surge and yet there are those who can’t wait to come post how perfect everything is. Usually with fake and false data. How many deaths in February? Let’s do basic math . Say it was 200/day x28 days = 5600. But we know it’s more than 200/day. But using a lower number to please the naysayers, 5600 is by far and away the deadliest month . Fact checked.

Which is why I said the variable you mentioned is significant.

We can only compare final body count when waves have completed

I think using CRF to compare lethality between variants and stages during the pandemic in Japan is an interesting and valid comparison.

I don't think it's enough for that. It doesn't take into acct how transmissible the virus is which has a direct proportionality with number of deaths.

Leads to some, err, curious conclusions like variant is least deadly even though we're having record number of daily deaths all time

Some even claim that omicron is no threat despite the all time highs in deaths and hospitalizations.

that omicron is less deadly than other variants on a CFR basis

I use mortality rate instead of cfr.

Cfr is how likely an infected person is to die.

Mortality rate is how likely an uninfected person is to die it takes into account transmissibility of the virus.

Actually no need to compute I just count how many dead bodies there are.

You introduced another significant variable above and that is how long a wave lasts which would give the total number of deaths not just the daily rates

It's quite simple really.

The answer lies in how one answers the question "what is/are the deadliest pandemic/s in history?"

The only reason the health system in Japan would have any burden from 1000 cases is that only about 10% of hospitals are accepting Covid patients!

roughly 1% or 1.2million people die every year in Japan how many total deaths over 2 years from Corona again???

24000 deaths total from or with Covid or 1% of total deaths for 2 years. The overall majority of these people had 2-3 underlying comorbidities and or were over 70-80 years of age.

why have they sealed the country and destroyed businesses again??!!

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/JPN/japan/death-rate

I look at this graph:

Point noted. Omicron will reach daily highs in deaths. However, both Alpha (4th wave) and Delta (5th wave) waves which lasted from March to July 2021 and July to Nov 2021, respectively were quite long and it's still possible that vanilla omicron (6th wave) accounting for an estimated 90% of cases* now might not last as long previous waves so we'd have a sudden spike but not a drawn out wall.

Can you explain how you calculated those numbers, since variant by patient data is not complete, ie., they do not test all positive patients for the specific variant.

Basing those figures on whatever variant was prevalent during each wave (i.e., 2.8% during the 4th wave, March to June 2021).

*https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/02/10/national/science-health/stealth-omicron-subvariant-spreads-japan/

So the Queen, a 95 year old, got Covid and quickly recovered

will the nervous nellies here finally calm down about this and end the ridiculous quasi state of emergency?

Steven Mccarthy

FFS Fact-checked

Omicron is by far the mildest of the Covid strains, likely to only seriously affect the very old, the very obese and those with weak immune systems. A common knowledge fact as you like to say.

You love going on about the children, none under the age of 10 have died of Covid in Japan since the pandemic started.

Yes, cases are falling, severe cases and deaths will follow.

Life must go on, these things happen on this planet.

Those going on about the amount of deaths RIP and all that are annoying, trying to show they care more. Your pointless statements are meaningless, they don’t make the sick better or resurrect the dead.

To put it in numbers, omicron is significantly less lethal than previous variants. On a case fatality basis, 2.8% for alpha, 0.4% for delta, and 0.07% for omicron. The least deadly variant we've seen in Japan.

……

Yet the Japanese government and people still act like it is.

Way behind the curve as usual.

It is far deadlier on a deaths per capita basis,

Yes, the mortality rate

1) The technique ignores the fact that two or more variants were present in a population at any given time. Replacement isn’t instantaneous but gradual.

I concur, it's not a perfect system and doesn't account for transitionary stages but I think it gives a rough idea of what a case fatality rate would look like for each variant in Japan - the differences in CFR change tenfold.

2) if the data is a composite of vaccinated and unvaccinated people who tested positive for any of the variants, then of course, you would see a higher death rate for alpha, because there was no vaccine or effective treatments available at the time when alpha predominated.

Yes, I agree with this. No denying that a population is better off/safer if more people are vaccinated. Don't think this changes my argument though - that omicron is less deadly than other variants on a CFR basis.

3) the data needs to be parsed based on vax status for it to have any meaning.

Respectfully disagree. My point is about how deadly omicron is to a population - specifically Japan. If we had a 100% cure for a future variant, then that variant would be less deadly than omicron. I'd like vax data too btw in case you're wondering but that's a separate debate I feel.

I use mortality rate instead of cfr.

Sure. I use mortality rate too when comparing between countries - Japan does pretty respectably in this regard. I think using CRF to compare lethality between variants and stages during the pandemic in Japan is an interesting and valid comparison.

The overall approach to testing hasn't changed so we're still getting the same tendency towards symptomatic cases being identified. Are those cases more or less likely to result in death?

You introduced another significant variable above and that is how long a wave lasts which would give the total number of deaths not just the daily rates

Well, my argument was about overall lethality of a variant/wave based on looking at a graph. Can look at it up and down or side to side, right? :)

Statistics presented in isolation rarely give an accurate picture (a criticism that swings both ways).

This true - what I'm actually trying to do is have a discussion about what "deadly" here means. We have fewer restrictions in place now, so omicron would be more deadly in terms overall damage than it would be if we had tougher restrictions (a lockdown might prevent more but not all deaths) but the overall deaths per identified case is still low so that probably counts for something too in terms of lowering restrictions, opening of borders, etc.

Problem is, you have two distinct populations when that was vaccinated and one that was not vaccinated. Therefore you have a treatment by variant interaction that’s going to confound anything that you could interpret as a decrease in mortality.

Sorry, I'm not sure we're on the same page. The effect of a population being semi vaccinated or better protected against a variant is part of why omicron is less lethal than it may have otherwise been. As in, if 50% were vaccinated and 50% weren't, omicron would still be less lethal than if 0% were vaccinated. Natural immunity, restriction compliance, etc. the same way.

It might be helpful to have a graph to look at instead of people at a crossroads or whatever the usual picture is.

https://www.stopcovid19.jp/#Tokyo

Keep in mind the deaths on that graph are cumulative. And you can see they've increased relatively little for the omicron wave compared to Alpha and Delta variants. Admittedly, we will not know the fully tally until the current wave is fully over.

To put it in numbers, omicron is significantly less lethal than previous variants. On a case fatality basis, 2.8% for alpha, 0.4% for delta, and 0.07% for omicron. The least deadly variant we've seen in Japan.

Commordore

Very true old top. Yet, some still claim it’s the most dangerous bizarrely.

Out for a day trip to Wakayama today, just about to have a slice curry. Very lively and plenty of people about. Came here last summer and it was totally dead, nobody about, like a ghost town.