Tokyo reports 4,704 coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 24,976

11 deaths reported today in Tokyo (deceased between July 24 and August 23) : 3 50s, 1 60s, 2 70s, 4 80s and 1 90s.

hopefully this meaningless SOE will be the last one, and struggling restaurant/bar owners can re-open as usual in due course.

Testing as usual down 2,000 from the original number from yesterday ( nearly 5,000 From yesterday's newly adjusted number.)

So by tomorrow's update it will be down 2,000 to 3,000 as usual.

This will also mean after tomorrow's adjustment today's testing will be 3,000 or so lower than last Thursday.

Now what a coincidence 3,000 fewer tests and we get 800 fewer cases.than last Thursday.

Now if we look at today's positivity rate we are around 30% (taking into account the projected testing numbers being adjust higher)

What is 30% of 3,000 tests not done (AKA fewer than last Thursday) oh 900, how many cases are we fewer than last week 830 .

Interesting coincidence.

I wanna see the number of tests they have done in Tokyo before I can get excited.

Dont want to count my chickens before they hatch but could these numbers really ne falling for good in Tokyo?

But how come Osaka gets a new record high today and Aichi over 2000 for the first time ever? Are these the Obon figures coming into play I wonder…….

Not really much more to say. Numbers decreasing is now the norm instead of the exception.

Kev JamesToday  05:13 pm JST

I wanna see the number of tests they have done in Tokyo before I can get excited

12,398 tests. It is in the pdf linked above.

Tomorrow's update will bring that to about 14,500 to 15,000 or 3,000 fewer than Thursday last week.

Going by today's positivity rate the near exact number of fewer tests needed to have 830 fewer cases

Numbers decreasing is now the norm instead of the exception.

Correct. Numbers of tests are indeed decreasing.

I have no idea what to deduce from all of these numbers anymore except that according to the J media Japan has done much better at curbing the impact and number of deaths connected to the virus.

Mr. Prime Minister! Please do something a little more conclusive than the slap on the wrist basically, as far as the current state of emergency goes, PLEASE!

According to my records for this month only, just here in Tokyo, there have been 109,893 cases. That represents 32.3% of the 327,861 cases Tokyo has had since the start of this horrible pandemic. And now also it seems to be hitting much younger people too.

Rant over-

I don't get the constant claims here that testing is decreasing. 

7 day moving averages:

23rd 15620

16th 14942

9th 13741

2nd 13342

Of course, the 20%+ positivity rate is absurd. However it peaked on 15th August at 23.8% and yesterday was at 20.7%.  I'm not saying that's a significant decrease, it's not. But its not going up. So I don't see the evidence for decreasing testing nor increasing under-detection either. (Under detection is for sure huge, I'm just saying I don't see an argument for its increasing).

For sure, the situation is dire, and the govt has done the worst job imaginable.  However, it does look like this wave has peaked, and if they continue to get the vaccinations out at a good pace we may not see another like this (unless more awful mutations, which admittedly wouldn't be surprising).

@audioboy

You are absolutely correct. Delta surges like the one we have seen for the last month or so, are not infinite. They have a distinct curve. As inept as the gov't is, their mentality was to ride out the storm, and wait for it to pass for the sake of the economy. Arguably, after seeing these falling numbers, they made the right choice.

With 12,389 tests carried out yesterday, I make that pretty close to a 38% positivity rate.

audioboy77Today  05:29 pm JST

7 day moving averages:

23rd 15620

16th 14942

9th 13741

2nd 13342

Where did you get those numbers ?

hopefully this meaningless SOE will be the last one, and struggling restaurant/bar owners can re-open as usual in due course.

Let’s hope so.

The key factor in getting back to normal is the strain on the health system.

Get vaccinated when you can.

So I don't see the evidence for decreasing testing

You don't?

Really?

Well let's see have you looked at the charts provided by Tokyo gov?

It is quite clear that This weeks testing is lower than last week's.

Drop the 7 day magic moving average Joke the Tokyo give uses as it makes no sense in any other place but the Tokyo government head.

Just look at today 12,398 tests now we know that will increase as more information comes in and that increase is always between 2,000 and 3000.

That brings today's testing to 14,500~15,000

Thursday last week it was 18,000

Today's positivity rate is about 30%

What is 30% of 3,000 fewer tests?

900.

How many fewer cases do we have today compared to last Thursday? 830.

But we are supposed to believe lowering the testing has nothing to do with lower cases numbers.

With 12,389 tests carried out yesterday, I make that pretty close to a 38% positivity rate.

So 38% of people sickened with flu-like symptoms have Covid. Sounds about right. What % do you expect? I'm more interested in the number or % of fully vaccinated people sicked by Covid. Any way we can get that information?

Osaka increase the daily average tests from 10,000 end of July to 17,000 now. The ratio of infections rose from 6 % to 14 %.

Same increase of daily average tests for Tokyo 10,000 to 16,500 (but the number of inhabitants is bigger). Ratio has increased from 18 % to 27 %.

Derek GrebeToday  05:37 pm JST

With 12,389 tests carried out yesterday, I make that pretty close to a 38% positivity rate

As with every day, tomorrow it will be adjusted higher by about 3000 tests.

Yesterday's original number of tests was 14,910 adjusted that number today is 17,505 up 2,595.

So if history holds by tomorrow today's testing will be adjusted up to around 15,000

So about 30% posivity rate for today

Give us the breakdown of who is getting hospitalized and dying.

As of 2 weeks ago 59% were fully vaccinated and that number was rising rapidly.

As of Saturday 21, consolidated nationwide data : the average daily number of tests is reaching 173,000 (it was 110,000 one month earlier). Ratio of infections grew from 3% to 13 %.

Here are the number of positive cases by date of confirmation:

8/24 3307

8/23 3805

8/22 2093

8/21 3719

8/20 5143

8/19 4899

8/18 5594

AntiquesavingToday  05:50 pm JST

As with every day, tomorrow it will be adjusted higher by about 3000 tests.

And as if by magic, the number of positive cases will remain unchanged. As with every day.

People in their 20s (1,330 cases), their 30s (896) and their 40s (811) accounted for the highest numbers, while 809 cases were aged under 19.

It seems like age 50 and up are still accounting for 1500/day positive. Why have you stopped reporting these figures?

Derek GrebeToday  05:56 pm JST

AntiquesavingToday  05:50 pm JST

As with every day, tomorrow it will be adjusted higher by about 3000 tests.

And as if by magic, the number of positive cases will remain unchanged. As with every day.

Yes I have pointed out that statistical impossibility many times.

How testing seems to get adjusted but never a single positive case.

NadrewToday  05:59 pm JST

People in their 20s (1,330 cases), their 30s (896) and their 40s (811) accounted for the highest numbers, while 809 cases were aged under 19.

It seems like age 50 and up are still accounting for 1500/day positive. Why have you stopped reporting these figures?

Possibly because on July 28 ( the last Tokyo gov update) the number of those between 39 and 59 were making up more than half of those with severe cases in hospital.

And it doesn't look good

The number of infected people hospitalized with severe symptoms in Tokyo was 276, down one from Wednesday, health officials said. 

That down one bed was given to a paralympic fella. So back up to 277 and counting.

After almost two years, numbers are meaningless to me. I just want COVID gone.

So it is clear the Vaccines are working and working very well.

That’s a bit too euphoric. They just work in very many cases. Not more, not less.

I may not agree with how Tokyo is testing but what is irrefutable are the age groups of those testing positive.

We know that the vast majority of those fully vaccinated in Japanese are over 65, we know that those over 65 make up over 28% of the population, we also know they are the most vulnerable with regards to covid.

We are told that over 80% of the over 65 are vaccinated.

Today we have 4,704 cases if those 191 are over 65, that is barely over 4% of positive cases.

What we are seeing is an increase in younger people who for the most part haven't gotten or haven't been able to get vaccinated.

So it is clear the Vaccines are working and working very well or we would be seeing a far higher number of sick elderly as we saw before the vaccine.

With the combination of increased herd immunity and growing vaccination rates, Japan will be well-placed compared with the rest of the world in the upcoming months,

Once a week, the stopcovid site updates info on each positive case, including onset of symptoms, date of confirmation and date released. Most positive cases are announced within 1-2 days of the date of confirmation. However, I was surprised that some are 4-5 days old.

ワクチン

日本語 https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=en&tl=ja&u=https://v-sys.mhlw.go.jp/search/

For Those Seeking Vaccination Sites in Japan,

https://v-sys.mhlw.go.jp/search/

Find an inoculation venue| Corona Vaccine Navi | Ministry of Health, (mhlw.go.jp)

Love the picture of all these lemmings lined up crowded no social distances and not even knowing if they are already covid infected and going to get the jab. Isn’t it dangerous to have covid and get the vaccine at the same time?

Where is the news about how well/bad the surrounding prefecture that boarders Tokyo doing. Guess the surrounding prefecture are in good hands and every covid infected individuals have medical access and the hospitals are welcoming all?

Well let's see have you looked at the charts provided by Tokyo gov?

Yes, that's from where I'm quoting the moving averages on reported on those particular dates.

*as reported

OJToday  07:53 pm JST

Once a week, the stopcovid site updates info on each positive case, including onset of symptoms, date of confirmation and date released. Most positive cases are announced within 1-2 days of the date of confirmation. However, I was surprised that some are 4-5 days old.

I just went back and checked every PDF download and the number of cases release on each day from the Tokyo government.

I compared 2 weeks of PDF case numbers with those on stopcovid and not a single change.

Now I have been checking for months never once has the number of cases been adjusted up or down.

Only the number of tests done somehow gets updated and alway higher.

If any researcher submited data like this, it would be rejected as a statistical impossibility.

In no logical world do they only find missed or forgotten negative tests and not one positive.

audioboy77Today  08:30 pm JST

Well let's see have you looked at the charts provided by Tokyo gov?

Yes, that's from where I'm quoting the moving averages

Now add up the 7 days of cases and the relevant 7 days of tests and do the math.

I will bet it doesn't come close to the official 7 day rolling average rate

You see unlike other countries were the 7 day average of cases is compared to the 7 day average of tests.

Tokyo has this magical way.

As far as I can figure is they compare today's cases with the 7 day rolling average of tests.

And any one with the slightest knowledge of how stats and averages go will tell you that is not how it goes.

You either compare today's cases with today's tests or you compare the 7 days cases with the 7 days test.

But if they compare 7 and 7 the the positivity rate jumps by 10% and that is not wanted.

Testing is meaningless, unless used to locate & isolate clusters or if an individual has been exposed to the virus or has SARSCoV-2 symptoms.

You take a test. No SARSCoV-2. Then what? You going to get tested every day/week/month? As if testing is a panacea. You would have to test everyone on the same day at the same exact time - otherwise it is a diagnostic tool for specific use.

Testing is to affirm a diagnosis or in case of exposure.