Tokyo reports 429 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 1,626

Can someone explain why numbers are decreasing?

Makes no sense to me and I can not believe it, since the only measure implemented was to request restaurants to close by 8PM.

I am genuinely curious to read a decent answer to my question.

@AG

You nail it. Government have been fiddling the figures from the start. Just check the before and after olympic games had been postponed.

Can someone explain why numbers are decreasing?

The contact tracing is now limited to the vulnerable and elderly, which means even if a person had contact to a "publicly" tested positive, he will not be tested.

People get old, they get sick, and they die. Its the way its always been and always will be.

The completely irrational reaction to covid was the perfect storm of 24 hour clickbait media, political opportunism, and the weakest generation in modern history.

It'll be over when we decide its over.

The COVID-19 is a serious disease proved by the data produced by experts, you could ignore everything in the media or said by politicians and it would still be necessary to consider it so. The medical experts obviously have a much heavier weight under their recommendation than nameless people without evidence on their part.

@AG

Can someone explain why numbers are decreasing?

Makes no sense to me and I can not believe it, since the only measure implemented was to request restaurants to close by 8PM.

I am genuinely curious to read a decent answer to my question.

a) Contact tracing is even more limited now, and Tokyo & Kanagawa gave it up pretty much completely. Less contact tracing = less testing = less cases.

b) People are being diverted to be tested at independent testing sites, and they do not share/report their results to the 'official' stats. More tests done & more positive cases found through independent testing = less positive cases in the official stats.

c) Check the rate of deaths. That hasn't really gone down.

JT actually really should add this reminder to each article they publish about the found covid-19 cases. Now people get the false sense that the situation would be getting better, when in reality, we actually have no clue of the real situation - not until each testing site is required to share their results, and until testing is ramped up all together.

In my opinion, the SOE makes a difference. Not the the silly rules (like 8pm closures), but rather the signal to people to change behavior. Of course not everyone follows the "rules" to the letter, but enough people change their behaviors enough to make a difference.

Makes no sense to me and I can not believe it, since the only measure implemented was to request restaurants to close by 8PM.

The hospitals collapse did the trick I think. People started dying so I reckon fear is what works in Japan.

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, but the comment you're responding to is very similar to your comments in response to old people dying after vaccinations.

Quote the comment, it is not similar at all.

It is completely different to say that old people is at risk from many different causes, so attributing their deaths to a single one is not logical, than saying that measures that protect them (and everybody else that require hospitalization) are not worth doing just because they are at a higher risk of dying.

There is a well know relatinship between the COVID-19 infection and a sudden worsening of chronic conditions that would not cause the death at that time. If you have patients with those conditions some infected and some not, and those infected die acutely after the infection while the ones that are not infected live for a couple more of decades that would point clearly to the infection having an important role on those deaths.

On the other hand if you have a population of people with a lot of risks for their health, some vaccinated and some not, and both groups have the same rate of death, then the logical conclusion is that this sole variable is not the one that caused those deaths.

Yeah, and a number of people have compared these curves and found no/little difference between places with and without lockdowns. And there is also Dr. John Ioannidis (epidemiologist) who concluded that lock downs have very little effect.

References needed, the best studies until now point to a clear effect, and those studies do not depend on comparing "as equals" countries with completely different conditions, some of which make the lockdowns unnecessary.

By the way Ioannidis is not a good reference, at least concerning to COVID-19. After the fiasco where he was foung to be bought to make a terribly unscientific study to "prove" that COVID-19 was much more extended than believed (and that later was demonstrated as false) his credibility was completely lost. His later studies on lockdowns have been heavily criticized, not only because of his hidden conflict of interests but also because again his methodologies are not up to the standards of the studies that contradict his conclusions.

@bob

So you think it's over now and we're on the good side of Farr's law? I highly doubt it.

a) Contact tracing is even more limited now, and Tokyo & Kanagawa gave it up pretty much completely. Less contact tracing = less testing = less cases.

b) People are being diverted to be tested at independent testing sites, and they do not share/report their results to the 'official' stats. More tests done & more positive cases found through independent testing = less positive cases in the official stats.

c) Check the rate of deaths. That hasn't really gone down.

JT actually really should add this reminder to each article they publish about the found covid-19 cases. Now people get the false sense that the situation would be getting better, when in reality, we actually have no clue of the real situation - not until each testing site is required to share their results, and until testing is ramped up all together.

Well said Vinke.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/eci.13484

Yes, that is the report that has been criticized for comparing countries as if they were in equal conditions and in equal need of heavy measures. This apparent huge drop on his previous standards are thought to be related to the conflic of interest discoverend on his previous scandal.

Examples of studies that demonstrate lockdowns and other non pharmaceutical measures have a positive effect on interrupting transmission.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30785-4/fulltext

https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(20)32034-1/fulltext

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0

etc. etc.

Ioannidis is a highly respected epidemiologist, very highly cited. You often make wild baseless accusations for any expert that says something you don't like. What is your proof that he was bought to make an unscientific study?

Ioannidis WAS a highly respected epidemiologist until it was found out that he received money to produce evidence against lockdowns that led to the publication of a study of terribly low methods and completely unreliable results, he actively hid the economic interest in supporting only this prefixed conclusion, which caused a well known scandal that damaged his reputation to the point he is no longer considered unbiased, at least for COVID-19 topics.

This is not baseless, it is a well know fact reported all around the world. Of course there is no proof he actively did a bad study to fit the results he was paid for (there are proof the researchers knew from where the money came), but the alternative is that he suddenly became incompetent and unable to recognize the huge problems the study had and that he usually criticized heavily when found in other studies, in science this may even be worse. Specially because the conclusions of the study predictably could not be replicated by anybody else.

https://geneticliteracyproject.org/2020/05/19/conflict-of-interest-allegation-whistleblower-alleges-study-by-stanfords-john-ioannidis-critical-of-lockdown-funded-by-wealthy-corporate-donor-critical-of-lockdown/

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/stephaniemlee/stanford-coronavirus-neeleman-ioannidis-whistleblower

https://undark.org/2020/04/24/john-ioannidis-covid-19-death-rate-critics/

For someone that routinely complain about conflicts of interest is is disappointing that you are so quick to give authors a pass when the results appear to support your conclusions. This would be an example of having double standards.

Better rate of positivity, but still no significant drop in serious cases or deaths, which is the real indicator. And still the worst testing rate in the world.

Can someone explain why numbers are decreasing?

No, I can’t. Because they are still rising everyday. lol

The number of reported coronavirus-related deaths nationwide was 52.

Havent seen numbers past days but this seems a good drop. Hopefully not a fluke

Do you have a plausible theory for the drop is positive cases that doesn't involve manipulation of the numbers?

At this point nobody has one for sure, Japan has had some advantage against the pandemic from the beginning but nobody knows what it is, The government has counted on this to relax measures and even to put forward things like the Go To campaigns but by now it is clear it is not a free pass. Efforts to contain the spread apparently have a bigger impact than in Europe and America, but going back to normal life spoils the whole thing.

I don’t believe the figure at all , I just look at the severe cases in hospital and hope that they eventually go down to zero . The rest is just lies to make sure the Olympic Games happen .

If that’s true, then it looks like infections indeed slowed down.

More likely some positive cases from tests done thru private clinics are included and some are not.

in any case, number of deaths should indicate if infections indeed are slowing down or accelerating.

According to my doctor, a general health practitioner at a private medical clinic, the official tally of new daily covid-19 cases does include positive tests conducted through private clinics.

If that’s true, then it looks like infections indeed slowed down. Increase probably just came from Go To campaign.

"The good news is always wrong and the bad news is always right? Maybe the reader is the problem."

Exactly. When the number of cases hit 4 digs, no one on this site accused the government of lying. Stats is like a umpire in a game, they only agree with it when the call goes their way.

Active cases now half the number of a few weeks ago.

For those skeptical of the numbers, new cases have fallen significantly in the US, Russia and UK at pretty much the same rate.

Are the numbers played with?

Sure - but to make us feel the situation is worse than it is. I check worldometer every day. It’s really strange.

Yeah, and a number of people have compared these curves and found no/little difference between places with and without lockdowns. And there is also Dr. John Ioannidis (epidemiologist) who concluded that lock downs have very little effect.

References needed,

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/eci.13484

Main conclusion:

"While small benefits cannot be excluded, we do not find significant benefits on case growth of more restrictive NPIs (nonpharmaceutical interventions). Similar reductions in case growth may be achievable with less‐restrictive interventions."

the best studies until now point to a clear effect,

References for these "best" studies needed.

By the way Ioannidis is not a good reference, at least concerning to COVID-19. After the fiasco where he was foung to be bought to make a terribly unscientific study to "prove" that COVID-19 was much more extended than believed (and that later was demonstrated as false) his credibility was completely lost.

Ioannidis is a highly respected epidemiologist, very highly cited. You often make wild baseless accusations for any expert that says something you don't like. What is your proof that he was bought to make an unscientific study?

According to my doctor, a general health practitioner at a private medical clinic, the official tally of new daily covid-19 cases does include positive tests conducted through private clinics.

Great answer Bob,

one of the best I’ve seen here.

Can someone explain why numbers are decreasing?

Hi, AG. I'll field this one if I may.

It's called Farr's law. A virus will eventually burn out at the same rate or symmetrical pattern on a bell curve with which it rose.

If you were under the assumption that viruses gathered strength for eternity, we as a species wouldn't exist.

Hope that helps.

@bob

So you think it's over now and we're on the good side of Farr's law? I highly doubt it.

Fuzzy - Its here to stay and will likely be a seasonal thing as far as I know. But knowing what we now know. it'll be over when we decide its over. The overwhelming majority of deaths are those 75 years and older with at least 2 or 3 co-morbidities.

People get old, they get sick, and they die. Its the way its always been and always will be.

The completely irrational reaction to covid was the perfect storm of 24 hour clickbait media, political opportunism, and the weakest generation in modern history.

It'll be over when we decide its over.

It's called Farr's law. A virus will eventually burn out at the same rate or symmetrical pattern on a bell curve with which it rose.

If you were under the assumption that viruses gathered strength for eternity, we as a species wouldn't exist.

Yeah, and a number of people have compared these curves and found no/little difference between places with and without lockdowns. And there is also Dr. John Ioannidis (epidemiologist) who concluded that lock downs have very little effect.

I agree that for each of us, it's over when we decide its over.

But, although the cases have been going down, I wonder why the deaths haven't. I realize the deaths will lag behind cases, but this lag seems a little too long....

People get old, they get sick, and they die. Its the way its always been and always will be.

The completely irrational reaction to covid was the perfect storm of 24 hour clickbait media, political opportunism, and the weakest generation in modern history.

It'll be over when we decide its over.

You have to be at the same time a terrible person and in deep denial to think that everybody that is "old" simply deserves to die even with decades of productive life in their future just so you can do what you want.

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, but the comment you're responding to is very similar to your comments in response to old people dying after vaccinations.

An old person with several comorbidities that tests positive for covid is automatically counted as a covid death. But when a healthy person dies soon after vaccination, it will very rarely (if ever) be blamed on the vaccine.

Here we go again !

the numbers are low & the Debbie Downers have started.

Get a life people, & try being happy - you might like it

GOOOD...makes me feel more at ease taking the Bullet Train tomorrow not.