Abe says no need for another state of emergency over coronavirus

Abe says no need for another state of emergency over coronavirus.

Anybody feel that tune will change after Obon?

Still seeing many mask-less travelers here in Fukuoka. Obon has arrived.

Am I a paranoid to think a virus spike?

https://covid19japan.com/?fbclid=IwAR1JhV0qk2yWfodr94eBU5urQH51upnxdRYG-T4tHJBcMT_emnhgvSI-4iY

Lets see.

@Bruce

Thank you for those links.

@Luis

This study does observe excess mortality of between 50 - 60 cases for January through April 2020.

As the study further notes:

一方で、同時期に新型コロナウイルス感染症以外を原因とする死亡（例えば、交通事故死、自殺、インフルエンザ等他の感染症による死亡）が過去の同時期より減少した場合、新型コロナウイルス感染症を直接死因とする超過死亡を相殺することがあり得る。 

Roughly translated as:

If deaths due to causes other than new coronavirus (for example, death from traffic accident, suicide, death due to other infectious diseases such as influenza) decreased during this time, it is possible that deaths due to the new coronavirus are offset with regard to excess mortality.

With regard to death from traffic accident alone, there were 41 fewer deaths for the months January through April 2020 than the same period in 2019:

https://www.e-stat.go.jp/en/stat-search/files?page=1&layout=datalist&toukei=00130002&tstat=000001032727&cycle=1&year=20200&month=12040605

Furthermore, the peak in deaths for the corona virus occurred in May, which was not covered by this survey:

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

All that said, I agree that Japan had been successful at limited mortality and spread of the new coronavirus up until the end of June 2020. Looking at the statistics, it appears the biggest impact was the SoE. The situation now appears to be changing, and the current strategy is failing as cases, hospitalizations and deaths are all trending up. I understand we are not yet at the same level we were in April/May, however I believe it would prudent to act prior to reaching that level.

@Tobias

do you have a link for the excess mortality data for Japan for this year?

J govt stats excess mortality rates Jan - April 2020:

https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/ja/from-idsc/493-guidelines/9748-excess-mortality-20jul.html

In the media and only reporting on Tokyo:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-11/tokyo-mortality-increased-in-april-at-height-of-virus-pandemic

On a related note, apparently the stats published by MHLW on pneumonia related deaths are released only every 3 years. They were last released in 2019 for the years 2016 through 2018. So that makes the next release due in 2022...

https://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/jinkou/geppo/nengai18/dl/gaikyou30.pdf

And on top of that, in 2014, Professor Ikegaya of the Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine wrote in the respected journal Nature: "Autopsies in Japan are performed on only 1.6% of all deaths, the lowest rate among developed countries. Cause of death is almost always determined by simple visual inspection, as it was 100 years ago."

https://www.nature.com/articles/507306e

Finally, I believe that MHLW considers "old age" to be a cause of death.

@Social Distancer

Got it, clear, thanks for clearing that up.

@moonbloom

The cat's out of the bag. Japan keeps corona death numbers low by simply averting their gaze, which if you've lived here for an appreciable amount of time you'll recognize is an accepted way of doing things here.

I'll take your word for it on that matter moonbloom. Your view seems to be shared by a number of people here and elsewhere.

@ i@n

Sorry, I meant east asian. Around here when people say asian countries they mean EAST asian (china, japan, taiwan, the two koreas). No offence intended to central asian countries, Se asian countries or the philipines.

As for my source.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Asia

He needs to shut down nightclubs that's where its spreading the most and that's why its so prevalent in the younger age group....

There is something called the "excess mortality rate", which compares mortality of the current year, current month with an average of all the recorded years.

Excess mortality is actually one of the best tools to calculate the extend of a pandemic.

Currently there is no out of normal excess mortality in Japan.

Luis, do you have a link for the excess mortality data for Japan for this year? I have seen reporting on this, but cannot find the data itself.

@Social Distancer

The cat's out of the bag. Japan keeps corona death numbers low by simply averting their gaze, which if you've lived here for an appreciable amount of time you'll recognize is an accepted way of doing things here.

CapuchinToday  07:13 am JST

But there's also this.

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200522/p2a/00m/0na/010000c

'Over half of Japan pathologists' requests for postmortem coronavirus tests rejected: survey'

Because PCR tests are not being carried out sufficiently on deceased patients, there are concerns that the number of people who have died from COVID-19 is actually higher than reported. Kondo said, "If a cause of death cannot be ascertained, then accurate coronavirus death rates cannot be obtained."

what is the reason for banning foreign residents?

They are not banning just foreign residents, they are banning everyone from outside. Of course they cannot and should not ban their own citizens from coming in.

Other countries are doing the same, it's just the malicious minded or downright stupid that make it sound as if Japan is the only country that's doing it.

Other countries even went so far as to limit the flights coming in to limit the entry of their own citizens.

. In the here and now, every asian country outside of china is doing better than japan at pandemic response.

Lol that's not just ignorance, that's outright misinformation.

What makes you say that?

@moonbloom

That little spiel you wrote cites an article dated 3/25/2020. We are currently in 8/6/2020. Your information is waaaay out of date. Of course sk had higher numbers back in March, because they were doing mass testing even back. The japanese were not doing mass testing back then. In fact they were downplaying the problem because the olympics were still going on. In the here and now, every asian country outside of china is doing better than japan at pandemic response.

Respect the virus but do not fear it. Wear a face mask and face shield and social distance. If you are sick, stay home. I trust the Japanese people with their intelligence and discipline to do what is right.

You know what they say about keeping all of the people happy all of the time. Keeping them healthy and alive should come before happy.

If the situation deems no emergency and carry on commuting into work then what is the reason for banning foreign residents?

It's a nuanced approach to a difficult situation.

What do you suppose the "correct" response would be where everyone is happy?

The more they play this down, the worse the long term consequences will be. People are being left with long term lung and kidney damage from covid. Oh well, nothing I can do about it except try stay away from the lemmings.

For all those talking conspiracy teories about the goverment hidding COVID deaths.

There is something called the "excess mortality rate", which compares mortality of the current year, current month with an average of all the recorded years.

Excess mortality is actually one of the best tools to calculate the extend of a pandemic.

Currently there is no out of normal excess mortality in Japan.

No need for a state of emergency but 'the foreigners cannot re-enter'. Have to commute into work on crammed trains but the foreign residents cannot travel. Abe is a walking hypocrite.

If the situation deems no emergency and carry on commuting into work then what is the reason for banning foreign residents?

Possibly, coronavirus deaths are being hidden among pneumonia fatalities.

Ok, so where is this spike in pneumonia fatalities in Japan this year?

it is possible that the more populous Japan is sweeping Covid-19 fatalities under the rug?

You made a statement, then added a question mark.

I'll address that statement:

So where are the bodies hidden? If they're being hidden as something else, that means there will be spikes in that "something else" as compared to other years. So where are the spikes?

[ Stats are murkier for the dead. Japan only does autopsies in 10% of suspicious deaths. If someone dies of pneumonia in a hospital, the odds of an autopsy are low. Japan has not released data on the number of autopsies performed to verify whether coronavirus was the cause of death. There is occasionally a post-mortem analysis of tissue samples – but rarely.

Possibly, coronavirus deaths are being hidden among pneumonia fatalities. South Korea has had 120 deaths from Covid-19, but Japan only 49. So, it is possible that the more populous Japan is sweeping Covid-19 fatalities under the rug?

South Korea also had a mass outbreak in the southeastern city of Daegu among a religious sect. Japan has had no such calamity.

So what are the latest figures for pneumonia deaths?

The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare told Asia Times: “We only issue those numbers [in a comprehensive survey] every three years.” And the ministry’s latest nationwide hospital admissions data date back to November, before the pandemic struck. ]

https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/japans-winning-its-quiet-fight-against-covid-19/

If you believe the government numbers, I have a limo ready to pick you up and take you to Disneyland.

Oh. So where are they hiding all the dead people then?

Anyone with health issues / vulnerable should stay home. Everyone else should continue with extra caution. Wear mask!

Yes, and we should ignore the fact that the less measures we take against the virus, such as a stay-at-home order, will result in more deaths of those vulnerable. After all, they're vulnerable, and therefore of a demographic that has less meaning to healthy people. Most of them are old - they've had their run, and are almost dead anyways. And we all know they would NEVER prevent the flow of profits to the elites, to protect one of our demographics.

theFuToday  12:44 am JST

Why does Japan have extremely low death rates from this virus?

If you believe the government numbers, I have a limo ready to pick you up and take you to Disneyland.

Why does Japan have extremely low death rates from this virus?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53188847

I want some of whatever my Japanese friends are doing, assuming it isn't due to prior exposure of other COVID viruses or genetic differences.

You will need to tighten your belt and live frugally during the lockdown.

For business startups it is not that easy. If you lose your entire income for up to a year, it doesn’t matter how much you metaphorically tighten your belt. For instance, companies which started up in late 2019 with no income in December get no support, a terrible “loophole” which I hope they address soon. The taxes keep coming though, everything OK in that department!

Was it before, after, or while coughing up blood in a mask that was not the ones he wasted millions on to send out (then get recalled in many cases)? Was it after he mentioned that, yes, it's MUCH worse than when they 'shut down' before, but... well... this time there is no reason to shut down while the numbers grow every day?

I don’t think japan needs another SOE nor lock down. 

Daily increase seems a lot because we’re comparing to prior when japan did minimal testing.

Anyone with health issues / vulnerable should stay home. Everyone else should continue with extra caution. Wear mask! 

To many people have lost their jobs, homes, their savings. Small businesses are suffering. They’ve worked their entire life to build what they have and they are about to loose them. 

I do wish that night life businesses to close for two weeks or more. Employees (not employer) should get government support.

''for what amounts to a glorified version of the common cold.''

Wow.

Barring the advance of a vaccine, containment with purposeful strictures is necessary for tamping it down to a slow rolling community spread as the main means of eliminating the virus. This determines a shift away from industrial tourism, which has arisen over the three years preceding The Olympics, eventually replacing it with domestic tourism which was in place five to ten years ago. The politics and mediated realities attending the methods or lack of response to the contagion is an impediment to structuring a successful response. A complete lockdown has serious impacts on the economy and indeed the culture. Existing protocols need to remain and not loosened. Masks, hand washing, social distancing, reasonable sheltering in place, banning large gatherings, reducing but not eliminating patterns of consumption or framing such with a means of reducing contact. A gradual, evolved opening-up, but kept local & regional. Year from now, if Japan has kept a ban on foreign visitors, SARSCoV-2 may revert to a cyclical virus. Better yet, a vaccine.

And this is why he needs to retire into the abyss. No consideration for even his own people. What a poor excuse of a leader.

If he was only worried about himself, he would just put Japan in total lock-down since that's what you all seem to want. He has the money to live a comfortable life, regardless. But unlike you, he seems to care about the millions of lives that would be destroyed by taking drastic measures for what amounts to a glorified version of the common cold.

Even with young people who got infected, need to look at the long term effects, such as lung and brain damage, so the numbers of infection rate still quite important.

Statistically do you actually have any idea how often there is brain or lung damage? The American media has hyped that but there is little proof of any large segment of patients being affected by that. And most likely those patients would have been hospitalized and been in ICU, which kinda proves my point that only looking at infection rates is ridiculous.

The same people complaining about Abe not shutting down the country will be the same that complain about the economy crashing if Abe does shut things down.

I can't wait to have my old life back, if that is possible.

There is no more old life, this will be the new normal.

The reality is that they don't have enough money to give to businesses and people should they decide to declare a national state of emergency. And since most of the infections are among young people who will probably not die and the number of deaths isn't rising, I agree with Mr. Abe on his decision to keep the economy open.

Very good descission !

The whole world pretends that there is nothing except Covid19 anymore.

The aftereffects of all useless attempts to stop the Virus will hurt humanity as a whole much more and much longer then Corona would have done.

Just look how many people die every day because of others stuff ... so much more .... covid19 is only an incredibly small fraction and still everyon is fixated on that one thing while in Antarctica it is 30+ degree and all the Ice is Melting and so on :/

Hey @tooheysnew. Seriously. EVERYONE is affected by a lockdown. But it is necessary whatever the cost! Would you rather be dead? Yes. You may loose your job and it will get tough. But if you live in Japan for the long term, there is social security and other support. You will need to tighten your belt and live frugally during the lockdown. And if you're one of those people passing through on the "Asian Tour", teaching English or whatever, this may be the time to leave and go home. What is not appreciated is the thoughtless, "all about me, all about the money" position that ABE (and apparently you) espouse. Grow up and be a team player!

It is just flabbergasting! The level of idiocy, stupidity, and Trumpist nature of this poor excuse for a human being. Japan is in dire need of a state of emergency! What a dolt.

Abe has had a lifetime's experience of avoiding unpleasant facts and he ain't gonna let a little virus force him to take his head out of the sand and face reality, at least not until it eventually bites him on the b*tt when he and his LDP cronies start circling the drain. No sane person wants the world to suffer any longer this brutal pandemic, but until scientists come up with an effective means of neutralizing the virus everybody else (including politicians and business people) must expect the worst in the coming months while exercising common sense (don't follow "leaders") and taking all possible measures to halt community spread (masks, social distancing -staying home instead of hanging out). Abe should take more decisive action immediately to flatten the curve and avoid the temptation to ape the "great job" of the old orange Pollyanna prognosticator who assures us ad nauseam that it's getting better all the time, that the virus will go away (eventually!), and that we'll all soon be ready to "rock n' roll"...

a wop bop a loo bop a wop bam boom!

Bush had "read my lips NO MORE TAXES" Clinton had " I did not have "explicit" with that woman" and Abe has "no immediate need" those words will come back to haunt him....bad mistake.

Obviously all of the people here who support another lockdown aren’t affected financially by doing so. You can work from the comfort of home, have some days off & still receive your full salary.

Well not everybody is so lucky.

Those people like me whose income is drastically reduced are totally against another lockdown.

Bruce may have used more firsthand sources, this site gives same data and links to the primary sources

https://www.stopcovid19.jp/

@Bruce Chatwin

Could you provide the actual link for that info you posted from the MHLW? I haven't been able to find useful info like that. Thanks.

there is no need for ABE.

@drlucifer

It is difficult to hide dead bodies and overflowing hospitals. I invite you to look at the figures provided by Koike's government in Tokyo: https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en

I don't know a single person with this. None of our students, my son and daughter's schools, our friends. I think focusing on hotspots will work as long as people continue to be more careful about visiting nightspots.

@nakanoguy

unfortunately, too many people, and the media, just focus on the infection rate, which merely reflects one data point. the more important data points are hospitalization rates, icu rates and number of deaths.

According to MHLW,

Okinawa has 227 beds suitable for Covid-19 patients. Okinawa has 477 active cases. Okinawa has an estimated bed occupancy rate of 210%

Fukuoka has 945 beds suitable for Covid-19 patients. Fukuoka has 1,073 active cases. Fukuoka has an estimated bed occupancy rate of 113%

Aichi has 1,800 beds suitable for Covid-19 patients. Aichi has 1,560 active cases. Aichi has an estimated bed occupancy rate of 86%

Tokyo has 3,970 beds suitable for Covid-19 patients. Tokyo has 3,265 active cases. Tokyo has an estimated bed occupancy rate of 82%

Osaka has 1,969 beds suitable for Covid-19 patients. Osaka has 1,509 active cases. Osaka has an estimated bed occupancy rate of 76%

if these remail low, then who cares if 1,000 people a day, most of whom are young people, get infected.

Who cares? Really? It must be liberating to have such a cavalier attitude.

I think the low numbers proves that all that social distancing, hand sanitizer, masks and what not, has worked. I think we earned those low numbers(relative to the rest of the Earth). To think that this virus is a not as living up to the hype is ignoring what has happened elsewhere like, ahem, the US an other places. I agree with both Koike and Abesan, if that is possible, and I think we should just keep doing what we are doing, being careful, but working where we can, minus whatever is causing the latest spike(pubs, pachinko, karaoke?).

I can't wait to have my old life back, if that is possible.

Maybe. But Abe had better be ready to pull the trigger if and when the situation calls for it. Aichi has already gone ahead on their own. Waiting too see if Tokyo will. Forecasting and pulling the trigger early enough to make a difference is crucial.

After getting the outbreak under some degree of control in May, Japan has seen a sharp rise in cases in recent weeks especially in urban centers such as Tokyo and Osaka, as well as Aichi Prefecture and Okinawa.

With testing embarrassingly low and thousand of people with symptoms being refused testing it cannot be said with certainty that it was brought under control. Easy to control the number of testing to achieve lower infection rate and claim victory.

Im just perplexed. If they are refusing testing to those with symptoms, who are they testing then?

drluciferToday  06:25 pm JST

The aim is to prevent the spread of infections as much as possible while also keeping social and economic activity going," he said. 

How do you prevent the spread with minimal testing and refusing testing to those with symptoms?

In the USA we call them a hypocrite.

How do you prevent the spread with minimal testing and refusing testing to those with symptoms?

They cannot prevent the spread if they are refusing testing to those with symptoms.

If you do take the train you should wear a mask. It’s that simple.

Unfortunately it's not that simple.

Many people still believe masks don't work or worse, make people more prone to infection;

or they just don't want to wear a mask for various reasons

The aim is to prevent the spread of infections as much as possible while also keeping social and economic activity going," he said. 

How do you prevent the spread with minimal testing and refusing testing to those with symptoms?

which is it?

Which ever you think would make me look worse.

Now, do you have any real commentary about what I said, or are you going to continue to talk about my looks?

Japan seems to be doing a great job of containing the virus. I’ve heard other countries have much higher rates. I usually walk to work so don’t know much about the trains. If you do take the train you should wear a mask. It’s that simple.

There is something about this Prime minister....... He is a very wealthy man that has nothing in common with most Japanese. He cannot relate to the daily challenges of his people.

Well in that case what was the first wishey washy lock down about when it's worse now?

Not sure I’m following your argument there. It was a simple question.

won’t answer the question? So you wear a mask.

No matter what my answer is, you will find a way to insult me with that information, so unless you have something to add to my comments that is actually relevant to what I said and isn't trying to attack my person, I won't answer anything else to you.

you are a consistent virus denier. 

You are just a provoker. Never once I've "denied" the virus, or the existence of the virus, or anything like that.

You can go back and look, how when people ask for backup for the things I say I provide academic links and scientific data.

If anything, you people like to spread fake news about the virus, and make it look like it is the apocalypse.

And after insulting people, you just try to claim "it wasn't an insult".

You changed the profile pic and won’t answer the question? So you wear a mask.

But if that is what Abe said people will believe that without asking for evidence

To the contrary, Abe right now has the lowest approval rate he has had, and it started to go down ever since the whole pandemic started.

In contrast, someone like Koike that loves to push the fear of the virus every time she can, has an extremely high approval rate.

Right now, being anything else than someone who is willing to destroy the whole country to stop a couple of infections means you are unpopular.

But people just want to believe this is a horrible virus that will kill everyone, even thou the evidence shows otherwise...

But if that is what Abe said people will believe that without asking for evidence

[ Stats are murkier for the dead. Japan only does autopsies in 10% of suspicious deaths. If someone dies of pneumonia in a hospital, the odds of an autopsy are low. Japan has not released data on the number of autopsies performed to verify whether coronavirus was the cause of death. There is occasionally a post-mortem analysis of tissue samples – but rarely.

Possibly, coronavirus deaths are being hidden among pneumonia fatalities. South Korea has had 120 deaths from Covid-19, but Japan only 49. So, it is possible that the more populous Japan is sweeping Covid-19 fatalities under the rug?

South Korea also had a mass outbreak in the southeastern city of Daegu among a religious sect. Japan has had no such calamity.

So what are the latest figures for pneumonia deaths?

The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare told Asia Times: “We only issue those numbers [in a comprehensive survey] every three years.” And the ministry’s latest nationwide hospital admissions data date back to November, before the pandemic struck. ]

https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/japans-winning-its-quiet-fight-against-covid-19/

He is so out of touch it's offencive. One could say vulga.

Where is the proof anyone can make a statement.

Literally you can look at the data yourself.

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/

There was no need for the first one

Word.

But people just want to believe this is a horrible virus that will kill everyone, even thou the evidence shows otherwise...

Just put him in the packed Yamamoto line every morning for 1 week. He will change his mind.

Well the health care system should be much better prepared now.

Problem is if people from Tokyo can't travel some might spend the holidays in places with 3Cs

Hopefully most people will do the prudent thing

unfortunately, too many people, and the media, just focus on the infection rate, which merely reflects one data point. the more important data points are hospitalization rates, icu rates and number of deaths. if these remail low, then who cares if 1,000 people a day, most of whom are young people, get infected.

I understand your point, but I do care because so long as the number of infections is growing then we run the risk of them getting out of control and growing at an exponential rate as has been seen in other countries. If that happens then the numbers of hospitalizations and deaths will also increase.

While I am very thankful that deaths remain low, the best way of ensuring that it stays that way is to care about the infection rate.

This is a good website for deciding one's opinion on the matter for us Tokyo folks: https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en

You can choose the language.

I wish the ministry of health used the same layout. No wonder people are confused: https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/bunya/newpage_00032.html#situation

The two old people on the pictures do wear gloves. They are certainly scared to go out.

"I ask that we be especially careful not to spread infections to the elderly," he said.

Well, since you asked so nicely I'll do my best.

Haven't agreed with him much so far, but I think he's right this time.

"The aim is to prevent the spread of infections as much as possible while also keeping social and economic activity going,"

Well said!

@Reckless and @Larr Flint:

Enjoy!

unfortunately, too many people, and the media, just focus on the infection rate, which merely reflects one data point. the more important data points are hospitalization rates, icu rates and number of deaths. if these remail low, then who cares if 1,000 people a day, most of whom are young people, get infected.

Even with young people who got infected, need to look at the long term effects, such as lung and brain damage, so the numbers of infection rate still quite important.

Abe said there had been far fewer serious and fatal cases recently compared to when the previous state of emergency was declared in April, and that hospitals across the country were better equipped to treat patients.

Where is the proof anyone can make a statement.

There was no need for the first one

unfortunately, too many people, and the media, just focus on the infection rate, which merely reflects one data point. the more important data points are hospitalization rates, icu rates and number of deaths. if these remail low, then who cares if 1,000 people a day, most of whom are young people, get infected.

Well they better have enough ventilators and hospital beds to accommodate all who gets sick from the un-controlled spreading of virus.

Ofcourse Mr.President you're commuting by your Government car.

please consider like us everyday using public government vehicle. 100 peoples are standing and sitting next to me. still feeling fear..

And this is why he needs to retire into the abyss. No consideration for even his own people. What a poor excuse of a leader.