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Strangerland
Correction. If the virus was as virulent as you have interpreted it to be based on what some media outlets are reporting, we should be seeing millions of infections.
The problem being on JT that posters interpret the numbers how they think they should work, rather than how they actually do work, and then make proclamations based on their generally incorrect interpretations.
zatoizugoodo
They offer to cover it because they know nobody is being tested.
Kobe White Bar Owner
What’s that 250000 million for then?
kurisupisu
It is about time too!
For many people this will be a needed reassurance.
Enough people get tested then tissue and toilet paper might appear again....
Hiro
That good news. All other nation charge money for tests. Unless you are suspected to be infected, you gonna have to pay for the test. No one can just walk in a hospital and expect to get free testing. In the USA it cost around $3000 for a single test.
Snow
Either it's not as virulent as some media outlets are claiming or we don't know the actual numbers of people infected in Japan.
As of March 4, Japan did 8,111 tests.
As of March 2, South Korea did 105,379 tests.
Hiro
Look, if we truly have many infection, people would already be dropping on the floor and send to the hospitals already. Japan is not a country that you can actually hide these things.
Of course Korea need to test that many. The church that spread the virus has around 200k members. The whole country demand that the government test every last one of them. They already reach 6000numbers infection and need to lock down two region. Don't think is good news because they tested so many people. The cost to actually do this, is currently breaking down down their medical industry both physically and mentally. You have no idea how much they are spending trying to save those cities. But if they don't they would be blamed too by the people. They are force to quickly scan all the church members to ease the public anger and try to salvage the situation.
JJ Jetplane
@Hiro
That is false information. The person that complained about his emergency room visit and that cost was tested for 22 possible respiratory illnesses.
Also, each state is different. New York state for example, the testing there is free. In Minnesota you can pay as much as $1,000 if you don't have insurance. So it ranges from free to $1,000 depending on your insurance. Also where you live.
kurisupisu
The UK is conducting drive-in tests conducted in the privacy of ones car....
Hiro
Actually the cost depend on what a lot of things. It can range from 1000-6000. And that is for those with insurance. Read the 'thehill' site about the cost of these tests.
JJ Jetplane
@Hiro
I read that site. They are more concerned with readers than actual information. That cost is what you would look at if you were rushed to the emergency room, tested, and forced into hospital quarantine.
Also, they don't take into account the subsidies that all states have already put into place or the coming subsidies that the federal government just approved.
kwatt
National Health Insurance is very good. It costs around 5000 yen.
Hiro
But you gotta admit, these testing are a bit pricey. Not every country has prepare sufficient enough to tackle the situation if a outbreak happen. The time,cost and it take up a lot of space and equipment from the hospital. I guess it depend on the situation. I am really wondering how Korea had manage to do it that quickly while the rest of the world is still struggling. Are they even sharing information with the rest of the world? They must have skip a lot of steps in the testing to speed up the process.
JJ Jetplane
What I can admit is that the state of the US medical system is horrible. Aside from preventative care, everything grossly overpriced. But some states, New York for example, have already mandated that any necessary testing will not cost anything. Doesn't matter if the person has insurance or not.
No Business
Given how so many people here have shocking personal hygiene (trickle cold water on fingers after taking a dump?) , I fully expect this to grow exponentially.
MikaTakara
Either it's not as virulent as some media outlets are claiming or we don't know the actual numbers of people infected in Japan.
or South Korea had more exposures to the virus than Japan did. Japan did not have the Shinchon Church with
200,000 members and Churches in Wuhan. So South Korea had more cases because they had more exposure to virus
As of March 6th
Number of Cases:
China: 80,422
South Korea 6088
Italy 3858
Iran 3513
Germany 482
France 377
Japan 259
It looks like Japan is doing a good job. Both Germany and France now have more cases than Japan does.
The above numbers are from the John Hopkins dashbaord
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
I have a link to the numbers and can be checked.
Hiro
What i don't get is why the medical treatment in Italy is so bad. Their mass outbreak was like a week ago and they have so many death already. If you look at the 'worldometers updates, the death counts is pretty high. I always though italy was a very advance nation.
Amir Marzouk
@MikaTakara
One of the main differences between Japan and those countries above it is the mandatory testing.
Everyone in Daegu is being tested. Everyone in a surrounding area of an infected person is being tested. Europe is also starting to conduct more tests. Japan still are not readily testing people. The US is now being forced to perform more tests so their numbers will rise as well.
I have coworkers that are sick in Japan and a few friends. Even though they all had fevers and/or flu like symptoms when they went to the doctor, they were told it's probably X illness and given medication. They were not tested and recommended to visit a testing area.
JJ Jetplane
@Hiro
For Italy, they are in a situation similar to Japan where they have many old people. So many fatalities are expected in Italy as the virus spreads. Countries that have a high advanced aged population is expected to get hit the hardest. In the US, most of the deaths are people in nursing homes.
kwatt
Coronavirus testing becomes very late for everyone in Japan, because Prime Minister Abe is so stupid. He could not decide it very quickly. He probably did not think the coronavirus become pandemic. Everyone can have a corona testing with low price from now.
jojobird
This is the problem. I have a sore throat, body aches and general malaise/very tired.
I want to get tested because if I have it, I don’t want to spread it to anyone else. I’ll self quarantine and let my job know that I will not be coming in for two weeks.
Without this info, I can take a few days off but not two weeks. I don’t want to spread it if I have it!
iraira
The virus (of which there are two serotypes known) has yet to enter the general population. It has entered a less susceptible (younger, healthier, etc) subpopulation. Should it spread (often by symptomatic carriers) therein, it will eventually get to the general population which includes the elderly. Then you'll see a higher body count, which seems less of a concern to Burning Bush and his cohorts.
So your math is not based on any real population dynamics. For the above reason and due to the "stay away from each other" response, exponential growth models cannot be used to predict the spread of this disease.
Strangerland
Where was it reported Japan has had those fatality rates?
Or were you (quite mistakenly) thinking that the death rate is the same everywhere?
You do realize Japan is a first-world nation with an excellent medical system, don't you? It would be silly to think the death rate here would be the same as say a third-world nation or a dictatorship that is more focused on suppressing information than in dealing with the problem.
For that matter, the WHO says on their site:
"The overall CFR [Case Fatality Ratio] varies by location and intensity of transmission (i.e. 5.8% in Wuhan vs. 0.7% in other areas in China)."
MrHeisei
It’s estimated that actual rate in Japan is 10 times more than that officially stated...mainly because they did not let people get tested. This new development should be interesting
Govt is incompetent and not capable of dealing with any emergency or crisis. Those of us living in Japan are all aware of this
MikaTakara
One of the main differences between Japan and those countries above it is the mandatory testing.
Not it is not. Every country has guidelines for testing. Just because you have fever does not mean you get tested for Covid19. The guidelines are pretty much the same. You have to have a fever and you have to been in contact with exposed person. Here are the guidelines:
Guidelines from the Health Ministry say people should get tested if they have cold-like symptoms, a fever of 37.5 Celsius, or experience extreme tiredness or breathing problems for four days or more. In the meantime, they should self-quarantine.
Senior citizens or people with preexisting medical conditions that put them at higher risk should seek testing if they exhibit symptoms for two or more days, according to the guidelines.
MikaTakara
I am expecting some people calling it fake news (since CNN), but facts are facts.
Yes facts are facts and here are the guidelines:
Guidelines from the Health Ministry say people should get tested if they have cold-like symptoms, a fever of 37.5 Celsius, or experience extreme tiredness or breathing problems for four days or more. In the meantime, they should self-quarantine.
Senior citizens or people with preexisting medical conditions that put them at higher risk should seek testing if they exhibit symptoms for two or more days, according to the guidelines.
But CNN forgot to mention that ever country has the same guidelines. I wonder why CNN left that bit of information out of the article as well:
As of March 6th
Number of Cases:
China: 80,422
South Korea 6088
Italy 3858
Iran 3513
Germany 482
France 377
Japan 259
It looks like Japan is doing a good job. Both Germany and France now have more cases than Japan does.
The above numbers are from the John Hopkins dashbaord
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
I have a link to the numbers and can be checked.
Tora
@strangerland, BB
You guys keep downplaying this, saying it's not serious. Then, why are governments around the world (beginning) to take it so seriously? Why is everything shutting down, the markets tanking, oil taking a hiding, and people generally closing up shop?
Why do Black Hawk helicopters deliver supplies to the Cruise Ship off California?
See you guys at the Hanami in a few days!
noriahojanen
Let's check and compare the death toll for each; 12 in Japan, 42 in South Korea as of today (6.3). Korea as a "late-comer" has unfortunately been pushing up this critical number. If applying this Korean pattern, Japan must have produced far more number of deaths considering population size (unconfirmed cases) and time-lags. This only implies that something is going wrong on Korea side or course of action; it seems, testing and detection have not contributed to proper treatment primarily for life-threatened patients
I value, and do agree on active testing and earlier virus detection, but it should not overwhelm follow-up treatment and entire healthcare service capacity. Korea seems to be failing in this regard. In politico-diplomatic front, there isn't necessarily a sensible move; instead of receiving a praise for testing outcomes, Korea is suffering travel restrictions imposed by a increasing number of countries including Japan. Out there surely are a terrible bias and misunderstanding, and I never suggest manipulation or info cover-ups. Politicians are always responsible for outcomes no matter what. Perhaps, a good news is that Korean "fast" test kit is now popular, selling well worldwide.
Jimizo
Everything shutting down? People generally closing up shop?
Are you sure?
There are some accurate things in your post but the two things I pointed out sound a bit hysterical.
Wallace Fred
This elementary school like propaganda won't fly anymore today.
Akie
Thanks China.
ian
Massive testing by South Korea provides most comprehensive data yet and puts mortality rate at just over 0.6%.
drlucifer
Yea, Japan is doing a good job.
So what is Japan really doing good.
No cities are locked down, the trains are still running jammed pack.
I see people in supermarkets touching fruits and vegetables with their bare hands.
Can someone explain to me how Japan is doing good cause I am really lost.
ian
I don't know if Japan is doing a good job but I think it's doing good. Only 12 deaths so far, relatively low. The population by itself seems to keep the virus in check.
Garthgoyle
I can't believe I'm saying this but for once, I agree with Akie. Thanks, China, for creating this virus. If it wasn't for them, we would still be paying attention to Ghosn and stuff. Instead, we are now busy getting sick and losing money, all thanks to China.
Utopia
There are many complaints from Japanese citizens who got denied for COVID-19 testing from the government.
Many Western media and experts believe that Abe is downplaying the current stats. Although the official death count is only 12, that number may well be skewed and not reflect the actual death count from COVID-19.
Tora
@Ian
Need to look at the complete picture. Also, they haven't tested many people. At the moment, if somebody has Corona like symtoms and dies untested, the cause will be recorded as some other respiratory disease.
Numbers from Japan Times (not incl. Princess)
Total tested: 6667
Total postive: 341
Open cases: 289
Resolved: 46
Critical: 29
Deaths: 6
Expect the number of deaths to rise.
starpunk
Coronavirus 19 is a flu virus and flu viruses can and do develop anywhere. They run their course then exist forever inactive. Nobody 'creates' them. As for China 'creating' this, bear in mind that the CCP, rotten as it is , is taking steps to combat and control it. This is no time for stupid xenophobic panicking. Perhaps you read too many story books.
Flute
@BurningBush
Yes, for this one.
The R0 of covid-19 is not 10. So all your calculation is wrong.
They currently do not know the exact covid-19 R0 because it is too early. The estimate are roughly in between 2 and 5. And the chain transmission is so far of 4 people.
Thus, if not detected soon enough, with a average behavior pattern, taking a R0 of 5 and a 4degree chain :
1 - 1+(15) - 1+(15)+((15)5) - 1+(15)+((15)5)+(((15)5)5) -1+(15)+((15)5)+(((15)5)5)+((((15)5)5)5) = 1 - 6 - 31 - 156 - 781
That is a purely mathematical calculation (and as you can guess that is something which is more suited for graph). There is other factor to take in account : human behavior, illness characteristic, ... the illness is as of now too new to have sufficient data.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_outbreak#Transmission
Prognosis again : people are not to drop dead the second they got it (or the incubation period is finished).
And as of now, you are aware that there is not even 1million confirmed cases worldwide ?
@MikaTakara
What do you call doing a good job ? Having less confirmed cases than the buddies ? That does not mean they have less cases.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jfB4muWkzKTR0daklmf8D5F0UfIYAgcx-Ij9McClQ/edit#gid=211530313
That is data about the amount of people tested. As of yesterday, excluding on cruise people that is 6777 for 341 confirmed cases.
If Japan happened to truly have less case, that should be interesting as it could help collect data about this illness, but that need to be proved.
Thus Japan as to jump of the boat of testing.
I am also questioning their circling, mapping, contact management and so on, thus the choose of people eligible to test.
According to "Home care for patients with suspected novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection presenting with mild symptoms, and management of their contacts" of WHO, https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance
If for work/school/family that is easy to follow, what about transportation people ?
What about people from the second circle (first circle people in contact with the patient ; second circle people in contact with someone from the first circle) even excluding transportation, as 1rst circle people can be asymptomatic (and false negative for the one tested) ?
Are all these people eligible to being tested in Japan ? Regarding the number of tests, ones have right to wonder.
After perhaps, everything is done accurately, but we need to factually know as it is relevant data about the illness.
So for any government related person passing by : people want data (and, when you are at it, make a risk assessment calculator to help people, and so on, monitor their risk (there is data to built it which can not be made public without endangering privacy of patient)).
Tora
And, they have the capacity to test 8000 per day now. It's a farce that only 6667 have been tested nationally since this crisis broke out.
JJ Jetplane
@MrHeisei
This estimation may be applicable everywhere. Many people came and went from ground zero prior to detection of the virus. WuHan is a central hub in China and massive amount of international business professionals frequent that area.
CDC recently said that there already may be millions in the US with the virus since most cases don't have symptoms or show mild symptoms. Also, children are largely unaffected by the virus and can still spread it from their parents or other children.
Flute
I mean : Japan has to jump on the boat of testing. Or if you prefer : Japan has to start testing more.
Edit button, please T_T
Disillusioned
And, the irony is, you are most likely to catch the virus sitting in the local dump clinic waiting for your turn to be tested.
noriahojanen
Please be reminded: testing itself can never cure the infection, nor prevent the death, nor ultimately contain the outbreak. Local healthcare readiness and capacity with sufficient manpower and equipment are the key, decisive factor. An excessive number of testing could overwhelm, exhaust medical services and resources. Think about opportunity costs and sacrifice (of lives which could have been saved).
Japan shouldn't follow South Korea where the death toll is more than triple (42, vs. 12 in Japan); serious shortage of local beds, equipment and staff are reported despite (or because of) broader, random testing with enormous numbers confirmed (second only to China) .
Meanwhile, Germany is an interesting case where testing is rather moderate in number or selective, only critical patients being intensively cared. A large majority "non-critical" patients are advised to stay home or self-quarantined. So far there is no single death in Germany, a big contrast to the neighboring Italy with its toll of 107. Again, no matter how increasingly (pro-) active it's applied, testing is NOT a real solution to the outbreak crisis. It may help people's mood, making them feel safer.... rather subjective and socio-psychological issue.
Utopia
Japan is capable, but not willing....
Wallace Fred
As I mentioned earlier, kindergarten style propaganda like this will simply not fly today. If the government is purposefully refusing to perform tests which actually endangers other people's lives, then it's safe to assume they're refusing to list the actual number of dead from the virus.
Utopia
Wallace, I can't agree with you more.
Abe should really refocus his attention from Olympic to his people. If he fails to do that, people of Japan should impeach him. They deserve better..
Strangerland
Irrelevant, as the number you've been speaking of (3.4) is the CFR. The number you've been using.
Strangerland
Don't rope me into this. I am realistic about it, neither downplaying it nor playing into the hysteria.
Snow
No need for a government conspiracy. Autopsies are incredibly rare in Japan. Also, Japan often uses the term "natural causes" for elderly people who die.
If a patient was not tested for coronavirus before his or her death, he or she likely would not end up in the statistics.
Flute
@noriahojanen
Because ?
And they identify "non-critical" patients by throwing dart on map ? They test people then treat them according to their situation.
I order to do that testing is needed and that is what people are asking. Did you see any post stating : "I want to be tested then isolated in a hospital if tested positive with intensive care" ?
jojobird's post could be seen as a good example (thought the 14days time frame is inaccurate as mixing illness duration and incubation period but well) :
I think you are under-estimating japanese system and japanese resident (Japanese and foreigner alike).
ian
What's your basis for saying this? If somebody is experiencing severe symptoms they will go to the hospital. They will be tested to find out what's causing the symptoms, be it flu, coronavirus or others. You're saying they'll just write a random disease as cause of death?
lesenfant
Use university labs to help too. They have the facilities.
EuroJP
Nothing to be proud of. You are either first year in Japan or have almost no income.
Rosalind Harris
@MikaTakara
As I and many others have said in these comments, even with those symptoms people have been refused testing. Many people in Japan don't have sick leave, so 'self-quarantine' means a big hit to your funds, or getting fired. My boss told me to that the week off as I have had all of those symptoms, and I don't know how I will pay my bills next month. /Still haven't been tested though.
drlucifer
The PCR test cost 19, 500yen of which the patient foots 5,800yen which the government covers fully.
However, it is limited to those who have been diagnosed as needing the test and meeting the strict criteria.
Whether the use of health insurance
will lead to more test is left to be seen. I am not holding my breath though.