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© 2012 AFPFault beneath nuclear plant in Aomori Prefecture also believed to be active
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© 2012 AFP
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noriyosan73
This is hard to believe. Millions of yen spent on finding this safe location just to find out that Japan is on the biggest fault zone on earth. Really? THE TSUNAMI DID THE DEVASTATION IN MIYAGI, NOT THE EARTHQUAKE. Spend millions on remote energy supply to the nuclear plants, and the problem is solved.
basroil
Samantha Zoe AsoDec. 15, 2012 - 05:58PM JST
Depends on your definitions. In the engineering community, and general statistics, it's not about knowing what the next one is, it's about knowing how likely that an event will occur at a certain place within a certain time-frame is. That is quite different than trying to predict the next quake, and in many ways a more rational method. It's far easier to calculate, and also happens to be the accepted method.
Unlike your house, which is probably sitting atop of land never even checked for active faults, all reactors are sitting on places that are not known to have moved in 100k years, which isn't exactly a short period when considering faults. If a quake strikes in a place where there hasn't been movement in even 35k years, it's considered not only unusual, but also only about as likely as a previously undetected fault becoming active. What if that fault was under a water treatment plant or other chlorine source and caused a massive release that sickens tens of thousands and kills hundreds? Plenty of scary stuff out there that needs more regulation than it currently has, and a lot of that is stored very close to major cities.
Samantha Zoe Aso
Earthquakes cannot be predicted. We don't know where the next shake may hit. Better to be safe when you could be talking about the lives of a lot of people. Never mind the environmental and emotional mess it leaves behind.
bajhista65
Geezzzz Japan is really full of FAULTS and Japan knows that. SO STOP RUNNING THOSE NUKE ELECTRIC POWER PLANTS and start building renewable source of energy no matter the cost. In the long run it will be more beneficial and safe.
noriyosan73
When are these stories going to end? Japan exits because it is on multiple fault zones. There is no place in Japan that is not near or on a fault zone. The real question is how can Japan survive without nuclear energy? If the answer is it cannot, then nuclear plants with adequate safety and backup systems is the only solution.
edojin
Come on already ... the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) promised us these nuclear power stations would be safe when they were built under LDP rule. Now one by one we are finding out these stations were built on top of active earthquake faults. And here comes the LDP again following their predicted win in tomorrow's lower house election. Can these guys be trusted with our lives? We already know we can't trust them with our money. Oh well ... no matter what ... guess we've got to live under their dictatorship once again ... As for the nuclear power plants ... just hope no more blow up ...
basroil
herefornowDec. 15, 2012 - 08:24AM JST
The fault area for 3/11 is entirely different, it is directly above the subduction zone, and it experienced M5+ quakes every year. (http://neic.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/epic/epic.cgi?SEARCHMETHOD=2&FILEFORMAT=6&SEARCHRANGE=HH&SLAT2=39&SLAT1=36&SLON1=141.9&SLON2=145&SYEAR=&SMONTH=&SDAY=&EYEAR=&EMONTH=&EDAY=&LMAG=5&UMAG=&NDEP1=&NDEP2=&IO1=&IO2=&CLAT=0.0&CLON=0.0&CRAD=0.0&SUBMIT=Submit+Search)
smithinjapanDec. 15, 2012 - 08:50AM JST
No, it's pure nonsense as it's just a risk assessment that doesn't even follow normal assessment protocols. Active faults according to geologists are those that have moved in the last 35000 years, but it's more of a legal and classification term than anything else. Older faults can move, younger faults can die out and never move again. But making the assessment based on 120k years rather than 35k is just fear mongering, and it has no real scientific value. ( As of course you will doubt my sources, here's one directly from a geologist <www.water.ca.gov/damsafety/docs/fault.pdf>)
That said, in the nuclear industry, they usually do use a 100k marker rather than 35k for an extra margin of safety, but that too is pointless in that it doesn't actually take anything into account other than fault age, and cannot actually give an accurate assessment of the danger or safety of any fault. (<www.iitk.ac.in/nicee/wcee/article/8_vol2_629.pdf>) I wouldn't be surprised if one of the "inactive" faults moves before the "may be active" faults
smithinjapan
mikihouse: It's "baloney" until it happens and a disaster occurs as a result, then even people like yourself demand to know why the plant wasn't shut down since it was known to be above an active fault. Bottom line is we don't need that plant running, and it's better to be safe than sorry.
mikihouse
3/11 moved because it has a pattern of moving every thousand years. its recorded, verified, and predicted. But to close a plant based on speculation with nothing to support its hypothesis but just simply saying it might move in a span of 130,000 years, thats baloney.
herefornow
mikhouse -- nonsense. They are closing it because "it might move" next week for all anyone knows. Or did you miss 3/11?
mikihouse
active: moved within 120,000 to 130,000 years. I think thats the whole island of Japan.
Get real. Who in their right mind think beyond a week, month or even a year?
We are closing the plant because it might move after 100,000 years. Well we are all dead by the way.
volland
An "active" japanese fault is something like an "active" japanese politician. There is a chance that once every 2 or 3000 years something will move,,,