Governors ask people to avoid Osaka-Hyogo trips during long weekend

What?

Is this a joke?

Everyday people travel in overcapacity and that is ok?

Today and for this weekend it isn’t?

Unbelievable!

Coronavirus infections through four live music venues in Osaka appear to be over as no new cases among visitors have been reported for a week, local authorities said Thursday.

One week? Geez, then why in the hell is the quarantine for TWO weeks! You have no idea what the hell you are talking about!

The Jiji press wire story put it in more scary terms:

"I've been briefed that an explosive wave of infection could happen anytime in Hyogo and Osaka," Hirofumi Yoshimura, governor of Osaka, told a press conference.

A panel of experts commissioned by the Japanese government called for a voluntary restraint on travel between the two prefectures, according to Osaka prefectural officials.

The panel also "presented an estimate that about 3,300 coronavirus cases will emerge in Osaka and Hyogo together by April 3," Yoshimura said.

https://www.nippon.com/en/news/yjj2020031901351/residents-asked-to-refrain-from-osaka-hyogo-travel.html

It is a bit arbitrary to just be discouraging crossing the prefectural boundary, which is meaningless. Kobe and Osaka are basically an indistinguishable urban area that has swallowed up everything between them.

The panel also "presented an estimate that about 3,300 coronavirus cases will emerge in Osaka and Hyogo together by April 3," Yoshimura said

So we've got a little under 1000 cases nationwide as of today, but the experts are predicting an increase of 3,300 (in two prefectures alone) within 2 weeks... that right there is the beginning of the exponential growth phase. Shouldn't we be ramping up measures rather than scaling back??

It is a bit arbitrary to just be discouraging crossing the prefectural boundary, which is meaningless. Kobe and Osaka are basically an indistinguishable urban area that has swallowed up everything between them.

Exactly. It's an invisible line. Both cities have their clusters and god knows how many undiagnosed or asymptomatic cases there are. How travel across this boundary is of more pressing concern than say going from Kobe to Itami or Umeda to Toyonaka (i.e. within a given pref).

Either urge stringent social distancing measures (which as of yesterday here in Kobe have virtually ceased) or not. And as the first post indicated, millions of residents of the 2 cities commute across that line every week. Why is the weekend any more dangerous?

Not to mention this seems to fly in the face of more sanguine pronouncements nationally. I remain fearful that we'll wind up like Lombardy.

Planes at Itami must avoid taxiing across the prefectural boundary cutting through the airport :p

You can't call for people to avoid these areas when the government and businesses in this area are doing absolutely nothing to help people take it seriously. Lead by example and do something for the people. They will follow suit.

As a Kobe born, and Osaka resident, this doesn’t make me feel very good.

Hearing the advice, and yet being aware of the actual situation makes this potentially another deadly scenario. Japan has a lot of old people but aren’t they worried about the spread?

I think we should we feeling lucky that we got some time and preparing for the worst case scenario.

Funny that the Governor will discourage it, but then JR, Hankyu, Hanshin, and even more government approved and built large super virus carrier train lines will transport a hundred people in one car to breathe all over each other while exercising caution folks)

Exactly. It's an invisible line. Both cities have their clusters and god knows how many undiagnosed or asymptomatic cases there are. How travel across this boundary is of more pressing concern than say going from Kobe to Itami or Umeda to Toyonaka (i.e. within a given pref).

There is a cluster in Osaka and a cluster in Itami. They want to avoid these clusters from meeting and exploding further. Pretty clear stuff here.

@Zichi

Just wear a mask and take the express or local trains, if you go by JR, Sanyo is even less crowded. (if you have time) and if you go out of rush hour then there is really no need to worry.

Better yet, get someone to take you by car.

rainyday Today  08:24 am JST

Kobe and Osaka are basically an indistinguishable urban area

Not basically, it is one continuous urban area separated by an invisible line.

How is that any different from what I said?

Ugh. Guess that rules out walking across the river to my favourite cafe in Itami...

zichi

If possible postpone the appointment a few months or so......again IF possible, hang in there!!!

Silly advice, it's one big urban conurbation. It's like telling Londoners not to cross borough boundaries.

How about closing malls, amusement parks etc, that will cut down travel and social contact, unlike this advice.

@Zichi

Postponement isn't possible post op.

I worry about the future ability of hospitals to cope with those who need regular appointments, such as yourself and all those with serious chronic conditions, if the number of cases ramp up significantly and hospitals start to get overwhelmed. I get regular Brain MRIs as post follow up for brain surgery and radiation treatment for a brain tumor. But those regular MRIs can be skipped for a while if needed.

It’s all the more critical post follow chronic conditions that will suffer, as well as the immunocompromised, who will suffer as a result of overloaded hospitals, as is happening now in some European countries.

Yeah, I think the intention is good, but the way they expressed it doesn't have too much logic. Having the clusters cross would be bad, but how about just telling people all over Japan to stay home and flatten the curve. Viruses don't respect invisible borders as we have seen from the worldwide spread. We are the carriers / vectors. We spread this thing, so we need to stop it as much as possible. The #1 person responsible for your health and well being is... you.

@ therougou

There is a cluster in Osaka and a cluster in Itami. They want to avoid these clusters from meeting and exploding further.

What exactly do you think a cluster is ?

Yoshimura told a press conference that the local government contained the outbreak by [...] by promoting tests.

Pity that it is limited to cluster time.

What exactly do you think a cluster is ?

If you watched Japanese news you would know the (at least so called) health professionals are afraid of one cluster meeting another and forming a supercluster. This is their aim, and effective or not, the intentions are pretty clear.

Silly advice, it's one big urban conurbation. It's like telling Londoners not to cross borough boundaries.

Most people around me (and I live in Hyogo and work in Osaka) know this means don't get your butt onto a train and go into Osaka, or the other way around. They don't care if a few stragglers cross an invisible line. We are talking about preventing hoards of people from traveling. Again, pretty straightforward stuff here.

@therougou

That do not reply to my question. I asked you what do you think a cluster is ? How do you expect cluster to meet ? How do think cluster could create a supercluster ? And so on.

I used to live in Amagasaki, which is in Hyogo as every Japanese person knows but has an Osaka (06) area code for phone numbers. My place was closer to Umeda than a good chunk of Osaka-fu.

I understand that they want to keep people off the trains and away from crowds. It just sounds weird the Osaka guy specifically mentioning "Hyogo" and not Kyoto. There's plenty of disease spreading potential there too.

And what about on Monday? Back to business as normal?

I worry about the future ability of hospitals to cope with those who need regular appointments, such as yourself and all those with serious chronic conditions,

Sorry to hear that. My Ménière's kicked into overdrive 4 weeks ago and I’ve had to go to a few different hospitals and clinics. Spoke with my father in the States (87 yrs old) and he described how at his hospital visit they had people staying in their cars with the doctors going car to car checking patients before admittance if needed.

invalid CSRF

The Costco in Amagasaki (Hyogo) is about 500m outside Osaka. I don't go to that one, but the Costcos I go to are always rammed on long weekends. No big packs of toilet paper for you, naughty Osaka people!

"I think an explosive spread can happen anytime in Hyogo Prefecture. Since the number of infected people has also been increasing in Osaka, we have to be on alert," Yoshimura said.

Should we change the 'can' to 'will' as it is normal it wil lead to panic if used.

@Flute

what do you think a cluster is ?

A cluster (クラスター) is the term Japan has been using to represent a group of infected people (感染者の集団). It isn't a matter of what I think, this is how they are using the term.

How do you expect cluster to meet ?

Mostly likely they will not meet outright, but if one cluster is not isolated and is moving around, multiple people from that cluster will infect other people, causing the creation of more clusters. If this happens between Osaka and Hyogo, where the same people tend to travel back and forth repeatedly, we will see more and more clusters forming.

How do think cluster could create a supercluster

The term they use in Japan is 連鎖, or chain. If multiple clusters in relative proximity (for example, one from a sports gym and one from a bar in the same neighborhood) meet, they will in effect chain together.

@kohakuebisu

I understand that they want to keep people off the trains and away from crowds. It just sounds weird the Osaka guy specifically mentioning "Hyogo" and not Kyoto. There's plenty of disease spreading potential there too.

This is because they are most likely basing their decisions on the group (cluster) infections that happened at a day care center in Itami and several live houses in Osaka. They aren't basing it on potential.

The Costco in Amagasaki (Hyogo) is about 500m outside Osaka. I don't go to that one, but the Costcos I go to are always rammed on long weekends. No big packs of toilet paper for you, naughty Osaka people!

I've been avoiding Costco because last year I seemed to get sick every time I went there in the cold months. But my wife went during the week and said it was very empty. People line up in the morning, get their toilet paper, and leave, lol.

This is worrying because at the moment I'm isolate but beginning of next month I need to travel to Kobe foe a hospital appointment. My body could not deal with this virus at this time.

I feel for you and you are right to worry.

You had better go by car.

If I am not mistaken you live in Tatsuno Right?. It is about an hour drive.

Coronavirus infections through four live music venues in Osaka appear to be over as no new cases among visitors have been reported for a week, local authorities said Thursday.

Over, Really ?

This is on the assumption the infection is limited to only those that were in the concert halls and the known people they were in direct contact with like family members and coworkers most of the concert hall infected people are known to use trains to commute to work and moving around so are they telling us

thls infected individuals transmitted in the livehouses but didn't in the trains and other places that they visited. I find that hard to believe.

There are some who visited the livehouses who didn't own up for testing for fear of facing discrimination or losing their jobs.

"I think an explosive spread can happen anytime in Hyogo Prefecture. Since the number of infected people has also been increasing in Osaka, we have to be on alert," Yoshimura said.

Come again? Based on what?

if one group of infected person is not isolated and is moving around, multiple people from that group of person will infect other people, causing the creation of more group of infected person. If this happens between Osaka and Hyogo, where the same people tend to travel back and forth repeatedly, we will see more and more group of infected person forming.

I see. Does this mean that if people from an infected group of person go around alone or meet other people from the same group of infected people, they can not infect other ?

At the same time, Miyagi-ken is asking for 'exchange population' through high-quality tourism programs!

free time is more important than work time

@Flute

I see. Does this mean that if people from an infected group of person go around alone or meet other people from the same group of infected people, they can not infect other ?

No, of course not. Maybe my explanation wasn't so good. Individuals in a "cluster" don't necessarily know each other and/or travel together. They just happen to live and/or work close together. So as far as travel goes, it isn't really important that the person traveling is part of a cluster, just that they may go and create more clusters. Here is my understanding of their line of thinking:

There are groups of infected people in Osaka and Itami (and maybe other areas of Hyogo. Hyogo gov. really dropped the ball by sending tons of masks to China, but that's another story).

- If there are groups of infected people in Itami, there are probably a lot of infected people.

- If people are traveling from Itami to Osaka, there is a high chance infected are among them.

- If infected people from Itami infect people in Osaka they could create another group of infected people in Osaka.

- If the new group of infected people live or work around an existing group of infected people, these groups will be chained together, creating a larger group of infected people, and basically making it hard to avoid infection in that area.

And so on.

@therougou

I see, so in that case could it not be logical to also ask people to refrain traveling around too much during this long weekend instead of just focusing on the Osaka - Hyogo border ?

And if the hypothesis is that there is still lot of infected people, should not something be done to identify them ?

@zichi

At least 2, there is a cluster linked to a hospital.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jfB4muWkzKTR0daklmf8D5F0UfIYAgcx-Ij9McClQ/edit#gid=0

@Flute

I'm interested to see that google docs link you posted, but it says:

Sorry, the file you have requested does not exist.

Make sure that you have the correct URL and the file exists.

Could you help with that?

It is the live patient data base linked there :

https://covid19japan.com/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jfB4muWkzKTR0daklmf8D5F0UfIYAgcx-Ij9McClQ/edit#gid=0

Perhaps they had to put it out since they were working on it. It is always in process as they double check all the time, so there is stuff added/suppressed with time. They use data from NHK, prefecture, Ministry of Health ...

@Flute

I see, so in that case could it not be logical to also ask people to refrain traveling around too much during this long weekend instead of just focusing on the Osaka - Hyogo border ?

Perhaps, but many people (myself included) are already refraining from travel to begin with. This request is coming from the respective prefectures, targeting a common route of travel in the area. So more people in the area will realize this has to do with them and take notice. In fact, the president of my company (based in Osaka) notified everyone of this on Slack as the news came out.

And if the hypothesis is that there is still lot of infected people, should not something be done to identify them?

If they could do it as efficiently as Korea seemed to be doing with the drive-thru checks and all, then I would tend to agree. But if you can get people to isolate themselves and prevent infections to begin with, that is the best option.