What is Japan's 'megaquake' warning?

How's Japan preparation status for mega quake?

https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14575046

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Natural-disasters/Tokyo-risks-over-6-000-untreated-deaths-in-major-earthquake

It was certainly the talk of the town yesterday.

So when the quake in Kanagawa kicked off last night with the phone warnings, it had a little extra spice and usual....

I have experienced one of those 5% occurrences where a major earthquake turned out to be a fore shock to an even larger earthquake. Japan just had a M7.1 quake along the plate boundary just south of the Nankai Trough and a day or two later a M5.3 quake on the far north end of the Nankai Trough. That is enough to get the hair on my neck standing up. That fault system however has a history of double quakes so take the warning seriously.

All this Data and history has not convinced developers and greed to limit the number of high rise buildings and structures, makes you think humans can never learn from the past.

I have experienced an 8.2 and a 7.3 mag. in my living years and it is the most horrible feeling one can get when the earth under your feet begins to shake, dance, and swing, LOL

Many nations limit the height of structures in high risk areas to 4 or 5 stories, unlike Japan were I see towering building pupping everywhere and I am thinking how on earth could this be allowed??

Modern structures are suppose to be quake resistant and designed to withstand a 9+ I was told but still it scares the hell out of every soul living or working in it.

Many nations limit the height of structures in high risk areas to 4 or 5 stories, unlike Japan were I see towering building pupping everywhere and I am thinking how on earth could this be allowed??

Because many municipalities govt just want economic growth in their area, no matter what it cost. Even people life at risk.

No one can prepare for a 9 + mag. we have seen how people reacted to the 2011 Fukushima shaker people PANIC and Lose control many get disoriented and just collapse, some were as far as 400km away and yet they could not take it.

We may prepare all we can but it is tough because mother earth holds the element of surprise and that is the worst part.

All this Data and history has not convinced developers and greed to limit the number of high rise buildings and structures

Why wouldn't they? None of them fell down during 2011.

makes you think humans can never learn from the past.

The fact that these buildings survive earthquakes shows that they indeed have learned from the past.

No one can prepare for a 9 + mag. we have seen how people reacted to the 2011 Fukushima shaker people PANIC and Lose control

There was very little panic and people losing control in 2011. The response in the country was amazing.

Japan is probably the most disaster prepared nation on Earth. Earthquake of magnitudes that in Japan get a mention in the news but no damage or injuries often cause thousands of deaths and vast property damage in other parts of the world. Even Italy will see loss of life and major property damage from a 5 point something quake that would do no damage whatsoever in Japan.

I'm scared as hell by the Nankai Trough earthquake. Even if I was living in Osaka at the time of the Tohoku megaquake, it gave me some kind of PTSD because at the time I was scared by the length of the swaying of our mansion (15 stories, we lived on the 2nd), but more than that, because at that time I was unemployed and my wife went to work as usual and I stayed home watching the tsunami come live. So far, worst mistake of my life and since 2011, I feel like the ground is constatly shaking while I'm in Japan (which doesn't happen when I go back to my homecountry for vacations).

But despite that, yes, if a megaquake happens, I prefer to be in Japan when it happens, because when you look at it clearly, most of the damages caused by the 2011 event were because of the tsunami and not because of the earthquake. Even this 7.1 event in Kyushu, I'm hearing about no loss of life and no major destruction, which was not the case for the Noto peninsula in january, mainly because Noto peninsula is mostly old traditional houses.

When a megaquake happens it's likely to kill hundreds of thousands of people—a powerful and extensive tsunami.

Japan's earthquake scientists say the country should prepare for a possible "megaquake" one day that could kill hundreds of thousands of people -- although they stress the warning does not mean a colossal tremor is imminent.

This has been known for decades and regularly reminded , but this warning just creates useless panic, with some events canceled in central Japan.

It is just based on statistics with a higher risk now

A crowbar and backpack is all you need in case of a disaster.

Natural disasters are unavoidable, but that doesn't call for complacency. Disaster management and preparedness in all levels of the government are required based on the worst case scenario but praying and hoping for the best.

Not sure what was the point of those panic news, except bringing more fear into the weak minded and guilible population.

Panic buying is still a thing even today, when there is no more water on the shops.

You'd think people would learn after the same panic modes from Corona, etc...

I'm definitely on edge this week. Restocked my emergency gear just in case.

wallaceToday  09:27 am JST

When a megaquake happens it's likely to kill hundreds of thousands of people—a powerful and extensive tsunami.

LOL, really ? You don't say !

You can prepare yourself with supplies but when an earthquake of that maginatude occurs no one is prepared for that can unleash. Living near the January 1st Earthquake epicenter I am fimilar with this all to well. Yes there was a lot of destruction here and the earthquake here had a depth of 10 kilometers.

My home is about 100 years old and sustained minimal damage. The home next door to ours was built in the 1970s and it was destroyed. From experience homes and buildings buit from the end of the edo period to 1949 faired very well. Homes and buildings built from 1950 to 1990 faired extremely badly against the earthquake. Homes built after this time were also sustained minimal damage.

If a mega quake occurs home built between 1950 and 1990 are going to really face a lot of damage when this earthquake occurs in the near future or decades to come.

So it frankly means nothing. Just a distraction to talk about because frankly they can’t predict earthquakes and they worry the entire country who take non-sense to heart. 30 years ago and probably many years befoee that also they were saying the same thing. Issuing a notice to say someday that they gave a notice. This is just nonsense and distraction.

How many Japanese will be killed in a mega quake?

Worst-case scenarios predict more than 300,000 dead, with a wall of water potentially 30m (100ft) striking along the East Asian nation's Pacific coast.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2en927054o

 A possible Nankai Trough megaquake and tsunami disaster could kill hundreds of thousands of people and cause a trillion-dollar damage to Japan.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/what-is-japans-nankai-trough-megaquake-advisory-2024-08-09/

Of course no one wants to see massive death and destruction and it is always heartbreaking when earthquakes or other disasters take human life. The video of the tsunami on 3/11 is something none of us will ever forget. But even in the event of a mega quake, the chances of being a victim is extremely low. It is certainly nothing to waste energy worrying about. We should make some preparations and continue living our lives.

Japan is the most disaster prepared country in the world, just prepare ourselves and be ready for everything..

Meanwhile let's keep live our lives..

How's Japan preparation status for mega quake?

https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14575046

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Natural-disasters/Tokyo-risks-over-6-000-untreated-deaths-in-major-earthquake

Annnnd????.....

WoodyLeeToday  07:46 am JST “ No one can prepare for a 9 + mag. we have seen how people reacted to the 2011 Fukushima shaker people PANIC and Lose control many get disoriented and just collapse, some were as far as 400km away and yet they could not take it.

We may prepare all we can but it is tough because mother earth holds the element of surprise and that is the worst part. “

a) 98 percent of the damage in 2011 was caused by the tsunami; b) Japan is the world leader in disaster preparedness.

—

Japan's earthquake scientists say the country should prepare for a possible "megaquake" one day that could kill hundreds of thousands of people -- although they stress the warning does not mean a colossal tremor is imminent.

Japan's government has previously said the next magnitude 8-9 megaquake along the Nankai Trough has a roughly 70 percent probability of striking within the next 30 years.

In the worst-case scenario 300,000 lives could be lost, experts estimate, with some engineers saying the damage could reach $13 trillion with infrastructure wiped out.

"A future great Nankai earthquake is surely the most long-anticipated earthquake in history -- it is the original definition of the 'Big One.'"

Geez, what an article—thank you for putting us at ease.

I'm supposed to visit my mother-in-law in October, megaquake before then would be much appreciated thank you

You've gotta wonder at some of the posters here - on one hand saying that major earthquakes have few casualties, that the warnings from authorities are fear mongering etc, on the other hand disrespecting the people of the Tohoku region for 2011 when supposedly they 'couldn't take it'.

What is wrong with you people? The fact that authorities are talking this way is typical Japanese communication - be ready because within certain time periods, major seismic upheavals happen in the Japanese archipelago. Nobody is telling people to panic - they are simply stating the reality that Japan is entering a new period of renewed seismic activity. Normalcy bias along the lines of Oh this is Japan, aint no big deal is dangerous.

Japanese building codes have improved and will prevent loss of life when the next big ones come but everywhere I look in Tokyo, there are older buildings that will not be swaying and absorbing pressure but will collapse and cause casualties. Plenty of these buildings of all kinds throughout Japan. Plenty of propane gas cannisters standing outside homes, plenty of unsecured power lines etc. Unless you live in one of those newer kinds of housing your chances of getting buried under your collapsed building increase.

Many earthquake casualties occur on the streets when earthquakes strike. Cars have accidents, people are literally squashed or impaled by falling debris and advertising signs, fires start and damage to power lines and other electrical infrastructure means the possibility of electrocution. You'd have to rebuild cities like Tokyo and Osaka to prevent these horrible facts when a major earthquake hits and that's not going to happen.

As for the genius on here who said that 2011 showed J people 'panicked' or 'couldn't handle it' - were you actually living in Japan then? The news and private videos showed a level of stoicism that was also heartbreaking, damn, I remember seeing videos of people at a school when the tsunami struck and they were watching their neighbors carried along by the massive water flow in their damaged houses. They all could do nothing but there was not the level of hysteria you'd expect.

I was in Tokyo on 3/11 and watched plenty of the videos over the ensuing days. I encourage all of you to Google those videos, of villages and cities large and small. They had just had a 9-magnitude earthquake off their coast, not many kilometers away, and very few buildings were knocked down or on fire (as happened in January 1995 in Kobe). In some locations, residents were gathering to talk to each other, while in others they were running for their lives as the tsunami warnings went off. (It was the tsunamis that caused all the destruction in those locations.) Yes, some people away from the tsunamis were killed or injured by things falling on them, but by and large Japanese buildings remained standing if not deluged. Look at the pictures from the Fukushima evacuation zone inland - nearly every structure and house was fully intact when abandoned - again, even though located a few score kilometers from the epicenter. So I was shocked to see the collapsing structures on January 1st in Ishikawa, and wondered what the difference was.

I have been in Japan for 30 plus years and was around for the Kobe one, however, lived in Tokyo but volunteered at the Japanese Red Cross and heard firsthand accounts and the stories were not pleasant and incredibly sad.

And I experienced the 2011 one firsthand and living on the 11th floor of a mansion and having it rock violently was and remains an experience I will never forget with dishes crashing onto the floor and cupboards falling all the while holding my baby. It was the most surreal experience that I hope never to repeat, with that said, it cannot be helped living in Japan it can be at times a daily reality with tremors and all.

a) 98 percent of the damage in 2011 was caused by the tsunami; b) Japan is the world leader in disaster preparedness.

Yes to a, but Japan has shown that it reacts quite badly in disaster preparations.

The 1995 Kobe earthquake showed how bad the response was, suggesting poor preparations. The 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster also showed how bad preparations are for entirely conceivable events. To quote Japan's own report:

“What must be admitted – very painfully – is that this was a disaster ‘Made in Japan,’ ” the report said. “Its fundamental causes are to be found in the ingrained conventions of Japanese culture: our reflexive obedience; our reluctance to question authority; our devotion to ‘sticking with the program.’ “

"megaquake" risk has been emphasized from authorities or experts or major media toward Japanese public until now repeatedly. but quake-related nuclear disaster risk is not even mentioned at all socially despite unknown innumerable active faults or many old nuclear plants facing seacoast or unrealistic evacuation plans.

I don't understand why people are panic buying water in Tokyo. Water is still flowing normally from taps, so if people do want to store water in case of an emergency, why not fill some PET bottles with tap water instead of wasting money on bottled water, which nine times out of ten, is tap water in a fancy botle!

Scared to know about megaquakes. I am sure Japan will have proper preparedness for such situations.

Hope it doesn't happen.