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Japan's births set to hit new all-time low below 800,000 in 2022

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Every year is always another new low birth rate in Japan.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-recorded-record-low-births-biggest-ever-population-drop-2021-2022-06-03/

Govt solution just give few extra bucks lump sum for parents, no other solution.

https://japantoday.com/category/national/japanese-government-wants-to-give-people-an-extra-%C2%A580-000-to-have-babies-but-will-it-work

2 ( +11 / -9 )

Where did all the babies go?

To fully understand the decline in the fertility rate (TFR), we first need to drop back a little over 70 years to July 1944. For three weeks that summer, representatives of 44 nations came together at Bretton Woods to make financial arrangements for the postwar world after the expected defeat of Germany and Japan. Conference participants established a modified “gold standard” under which the exchange rates of most currencies were fixed against the U.S. dollar. In 1949, under the Bretton Woods system, Japan accepted a fixed exchange rate of Y360 to the U.S. dollar – a rate that remained unchanged for 22 years.

The year that delegates met at Bretton Woods, 1944, Japan had a TFR of 4.12, and three years later the country’s TFR hit a postwar high of 4.54. In 1948, however, abortion was legalized, and by 1957 Japan’s TFR had fallen to 2.04, below the 2.07 needed for population replacement. Over the next 16 years, through 1973, Japan’s TFR averaged about 2.06, but in 1974 a drop began from which the country has never recovered.

What happened?

Inflation. From 1956 to 1972, Japan’s economy grew 9.3% on average in real terms as all sorts of durable consumer goods were produced. However, imports continued to exceed exports. Prices rose. From 1969 through 1971, unions demanded wage increases in excess of 22, 23, and 24 percent, and companies met those demands by granting raises of 15, 18, and 17 percent, respectively.

The U.S. gold coverage, meanwhile, deteriorated from 55 to 22 percent; that is, the U.S. had printed so many dollars that it had the ability to convert only 22% of those dollars into gold on demand. Because the U.S. could no longer honor its commitment to pay gold for dollars, President Nixon announced on August 15, 1971, that the U.S. would no longer sell gold, thus ending the fixed exchange-rate system. The yen immediately appreciated to 340 per dollar and was at 315 by the end of the year.

To counter the deflationary impact of the yen appreciation, fiscal and monetary policy was relaxed. Bond issuance tripled. And the Tanaka administration spent, spent, and spent some more. Inflation roared, reaching double digits. In 1972 and 1973, unions demanded wage increases surpassing 25 and 39 percent, and received raises exceeding 20 and 32 percent, respectively.

And then, war. At noon on October 6, 1973, on the Jewish Day of Atonement, Egypt and Syria staged a surprise attack on Israeli forces situated on the Suez Canal and the Golan Heights, starting the Yom Kippur War. Three days later, the members of OAPEC, comprising the Arab members of OPEC in addition to Egypt and Syria, announced that they would no longer ship oil to nations that had lent Israel support during the war – that is, the U.S., its allies in Western Europe, and Japan.

Japan’s CPI surged to 24% and inflation topped 20%, and struggling companies shifted to a policy that would greatly impact Japan’s TFR over the next three decades: They started hiring part-time workers at much lower wages, jobs mostly taken by women.

Japan’s TFR fell to 1.91 in 1975, 1.76 in 1985, 1.42 in 1995, and 1.26 in 2005.

1 ( +7 / -6 )

Funny, in Okinawa there seems to be a lot of young people with babies/ small children.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

As the prolonged coronavirus pandemic has continued to cause women to delay plans to become pregnant due to economic reasons and health concerns.

Health concerns? More like costs related to raising a child skyrocketing and the government doing little if anything to assist in meaningful ways.

The rise in the consumption tax, to 10%, was supposedly to be used for the issues related to child rearing, and yet little if anything concrete has come about. Where did all that money go?

4 ( +11 / -7 )

Funny, in Okinawa there seems to be a lot of young people with babies/ small children

If I recall correctly, Okinawa is the only prefecture, with an increasing population and rising birthrate. As you probably know, thanks to the culture here, it's easier than other places, for young mothers and families to get support from their families.

Hell even with my own 3 children, my in-laws were their "day care" providers, and it allowed both my wife and I to work, so we had the money to send them to "American" school's for their education. If we had had to pay for daycare along the way, that would have been next to impossible.

5 ( +8 / -3 )

Japan's births set to hit new all-time low below 800,000 in 2022

Thus putting even more pressure on the already failed pension system. People are paying into this scam all their working life and get a less than 20% return on the money they put in. It's no surprise people are not declaring income and stashing their cash in shoe boxes at home.

5 ( +11 / -6 )

"In addition to designing the country's social security system in a way that will fit the aging society, we need to further analyze ways to raise the birth rate,"

Thanks, professor obvious!

10 ( +11 / -1 )

The number is declining faster than the government anticipated.

I've been saying for years that the gov's population outlook is WAY too optimistic.

-5 ( +3 / -8 )

Funny, in Okinawa there seems to be a lot of young people with babies/ small children.

In Okinawa, and a few major cities, one can still see lots of kids. But go out into the countryside, or even just to smaller towns and cities, and the demographic crisis becomes very apparent. You see lots of houses but almost no families, just elderly people living in them. And as they die off, the towns they live in slowly die off too since there isn’t a generation of young people there to replace them.

30 years ago this was only happening in remote farming villages, but now its pretty much happening everywhere except the major urban centres and a few small outliers.

Its depressing to think about where this country is heading if they continue to fail to address this problem. Most of the country is in a kind of death spiral that it can no longer escape. Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya, etc can only avoid that outcome for so long before it hits there too.

1 ( +7 / -6 )

I wonder if the people whose job it is within the Japanese government to study why the birthrate won't climb are pressured to stay at the office until 10:30 PM, go to obligatory after-hours drunk sessions with the section chief, and shamed from using their vacation time?

Because that would be ironic.

3 ( +8 / -5 )

Shortage of babies in Japan? Just encourage more weddings! Shortage of eligible men? Just encourage eligible men from neighbour countries to settle in Japan! And encourage eligible Japanese women to visit neighbour countries to find eligible men to marry them and settle in Japan

to make babies. Encouraging married couples to have more babies? Yes! Just paying them is a good way to encourage them to have more babies. Yes! But!! But not just by offering payment of a few hundred yen. If the Japanese government really wish for more babies to shore up the birth rate to normal, it must not offer the gift of yen that can be counted by fingers. Be more generous. Or... more.... than...... generous and ........more and more babies will descend on Japanese shores to shore up the birth rate very quickly and.....naturally.

-6 ( +2 / -8 )

Politicians focus on financial subsidies because that is a tool they have. But I think it is really limited. I don't even think it is the work culture. I think that once your culture gets to a place where people don't want many children, you are basically going down this path of losing population (not just JP either). Several thousand dollars and/or free houikuen will blunt the impact, but it won't be the reason people will have babies. It's really more of a cultural phenomenon. Most likely, Japan is going to have to work hard on attracting immigrants who have a different mindset to shore up the population. I'm not saying I love the idea because it will be disruptive, but yeah...that's pretty much what needs to happen.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

There are more abortions than giving live births in Japan.

-5 ( +5 / -10 )

More countries should follow Japan's example. Too many people on this planet.

-4 ( +5 / -9 )

There are more abortions than giving live births in Japan.

Just looking up the data on Google now and this is not true. There are about 150,000 abortions per year, versus about 800,000 births this year (according to this article).

2 ( +4 / -2 )

"When the people of a society start asking the question of 'should we have a child?', that society is already dying."

Oswald Spengler

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

raise taxes, raise prices, force people to work ridiculous hours with no raise.... Gee I wonder why nobody makes babies!!!!!

1 ( +7 / -6 )

Some interesting comments and theories above. This is first time I've seen Bretton Woods mentioned.

The main reason Japanese blame is "bankonka", which is women getting married later. Anyone who came to Japan in Showa or early Heisei (i.e. 20 plus years ago) will have heard the "Christmas Cake" theory about women, i.e., they are worthless after 25. Well nobody says that anymore. In 2022, if a young woman, esp. a college educated one, wanted to get married before 25, you'd probably be concerned and ask her if she knew what she was doing. That's a huge cultural shift.

Rather than simply womens' lib or whatever, it is true that most families now need the woman to financially contribute and not simply be a homemaker. In the West, this has been driven by (frankly ridiculous) house price inflation, but in Japan, the main culprit is falling male wages.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Ah, BUT, with all the spending going towards defense the elderly population, which will be 70% before long, can take that afternoon nap resting easily.

1 ( +6 / -5 )

A country built around every mother being a house wife were fewer and fewer families are able to afford it, of course the first thing families will do is have less children.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

This is good news for an already grossly over -populated country.

-8 ( +0 / -8 )

The worst part is that we know the reasons for this: enormous work burdens, outdated gender norms, the lack of daycare centers, high costs of living and education...

Meanwhile the clueless government of people stuck in the 1950s thinks it's enough to give people some small cash bonuses here and there. These are not enough. The real solution involves using the brute force of the state to make companies comply with stricter labor laws, preventing discrimination and taking initiatives to change the culture of overwork and other outdated norms. Japan actually has some decent benefits when it comes to maternity AND paternity leave; the problem is in making these socially acceptable and normal to use, particularly the latter.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

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