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Japan's population projected to shrink 30% to 87 mil in 2070

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No surprises here at all. This has been in the news for the whole longtime I've been living in Japan. The train has long ago left the station...

31 ( +38 / -7 )

Actually this is good news. With limited natural resources, Japan doesnt need 100 plus million people, all living crammed into a few megalopolises.

Only problem is the government can't wrap it's head around the idea.

9 ( +34 / -25 )

While in past decades government just busy promoting Olympics, what happened after Olympics? Did it solve Japan fundamental problem like population decline? Of course no.

The National Institute of Population and Security Research said those aged 65 or above in Japan are projected to hit 33.67 million in 2070 after peaking at 39.53 million in 2043. In 2070, they will comprise 38.7 percent of the population, resulting in ballooning social security costs.

How much at that time people need to pay for pension?

-2 ( +14 / -16 )

Actually this is good news. With limited natural resources, Japan doesnt need 100 plus million people, all living crammed into a few megalopolises.

Only problem is the government can't wrap it's head around the idea.

Actually no, its bad news. A country with almost no young people in it is going to be a dystopian nightmare. Just look at rural villages where this has already happened - everything is falling apart because old people don’t have a future to look forward to nor do they have the ability to take care of stuff even if they wanted to. The villages are just waiting to slowly die. Towns and mid size cities are next in line to experience that. There is nothing even remotely good about it,

0 ( +17 / -17 )

And my recent paper on the topic proves that's a good thing. https://www.japanesestudies.org.uk/ejcjs/vol23/iss1/rogers.html

An interesting read but I wouldn't take it to the bank.

0 ( +6 / -6 )

South Korea is also grappling with a plummeting birth rate.

The shrinking population trend is more pronounced in Asia that in the West. Yet the Asians are overwhelming against large-scale immigration as a solution, in stark contrast to the attitude in the West, which believes it to be essential for a society's sustainability.

I wonder which side is right? One of them must be wrong. And being wrong in this case has enormous consequences, involving a society's sheer survival. Interesting.

6 ( +14 / -8 )

Japan's population projected to shrink 30% to 87 mil in 2070

Even then, it is larger than UK, which is 68.8 mil today.

4 ( +10 / -6 )

The world is going to be very different in 2070. A.I. robots and new technology will take over many of the jobs we have now. Japan will do just fine with its falling population. It is other countries with their masses of unemployed that will have the real problems.

-5 ( +10 / -15 )

This is positive news to wake up to!

Japan is overcrowded - we all agree on that. Getting a train in Osaka or Tokyo is horrible, times like Golden Week are a nightmare. Japanese, in choosing to reduce their population, will make these things easier. The environment will benefit, universities will be easier to enter, graduates will have multiple job offers and close to zero unemployment. The air will be cleaner and the country will be quieter. Getting seats on any train will become easy.

Other nations should look to the Japanese model : reducing population while improving the environment and still growing economically. Win-win for all!

-4 ( +13 / -17 )

All these population projections are based on the assumption that the current trends will continue uninterrupted. Things rarely turn out the way the government predicts. So no need to be alarmed. Shrinking work-age population can be more than offset by innovation and increasing productivity.

-1 ( +8 / -9 )

The ones who favor such a horrible development just forget, that the much bigger rest will have extreme population growth but won’t even less be capable to feed themselves or solve any problems on that planet. That’s why it is a nightmare for the shrinking developed countries as well as for the ones who will take over everything but can’t handle it all even if they ever want or try.

2 ( +5 / -3 )

What is the government 'eyeing' to tackle this dilemma? SFA it would seem. Tossing a few biscuits to Taros and Naomi's out there to pump out bubs isn't working. How long will it take to realise the desperate need for immigration is needed. Seems they'd prefer the country die as a pure, racist one than survive as a thriving multi cultural society.

-12 ( +11 / -23 )

People reveling on this news, thinking Tokyo and Osaka are going to get less crowded don't see that the populations of these areas are still increasing while Japan is shedding one million people per year. The decreasing population is only going to make the megalopolises more crowded until literally everyone has moved into one of these areas. Reason is quite simple, the lower population areas will not get enough investment to even keep the lights on. People will emigrate to larger population centers to find jobs and make a living. Rural areas will be populated by the few that mega farming corporations will employ to continue their operations.

4 ( +14 / -10 )

Japan's population projected to shrink 30% to 87 mil in 2070

Again, that's a very optimistic projection. It will reach that number MUCH sooner. The fertility rate is going down, not up, AND that is with less and less young people going around to begin with. A while back there was an article on here saying that gov officials were alarmed at the speed of the decline and that it was faster than they expected. 2050 seems like a better bet.

People reveling on this news, thinking Tokyo and Osaka are going to get less crowded don't see that the populations of these areas are still increasing while Japan is shedding one million people per year. The decreasing population is only going to make the megalopolises more crowded until literally everyone has moved into one of these areas. Reason is quite simple, the lower population areas will not get enough investment to even keep the lights on. People will emigrate to larger population centers to find jobs and make a living. Rural areas will be populated by the few that mega farming corporations will employ to continue their operations.

Exactly. Not to mention that people saying that Japan is overcrowded have probably never owned a car nor driven around Japan like I have. Japan is EMPTY. You want space?? You can have it AND border Tokyo. Go to Yamanashi. The WHOLE prefecture has less people than Saitama City. And speaking of Saitama, take a trip to the Western part like Chichibu which does also border Tokyo. NOTHING there. Drive around Hokkaido like I did. NOTHING there. Sapporo, the biggest city, wasn't even that big nor crowded at all. And I was there for the Snow Festival back in 2007. From people I know up there, its been hollowed out even more. Hokkaido is empty.

People here are not going to be happy until the Tokyo-Yokohama area resembles the Yukon and Osaka looks like Western Australia.

-5 ( +11 / -16 )

Actually no, its bad news. A country with almost no young people in it is going to be a dystopian nightmare. Just look at rural villages where this has already happened - everything is falling apart because old people don’t have a future to look forward to nor do they have the ability to take care of stuff even if they wanted to. The villages are just waiting to slowly die. Towns and mid size cities are next in line to experience that. There is nothing even remotely good about it,

You think Japan is going to stay "elderly" forever? Do the math, the current "ageing" of Japan is a temporary thing and balance will return within a generation or two at most.

Japan doesnt need to fill every nook and crany of space, in fact nature can return to those mountainous regions

2 ( +13 / -11 )

Look at England specifically, the landmass of the island is similar to Japan, with much more livable land area than Japan, but Japan has nearly double the population.

Japan could easily survive with less people, but to do so, it's system needs to adjust to a smaller population, and the government has to adjust too.

(Yeah I know, pipe dream about the government "changing")

2 ( +11 / -9 )

Shocking but it is reality. The pension system in place is looking very very shaky! Good luck if you're hoping for a pension payout in 30 years. There are a few solutions around this. Paying people more and increasing the pension premiums. Let immigrants in. However I suspect this won't be happening any time soon.

5 ( +10 / -5 )

Good. That's prudent considering AI and mass automation will have made 50% of current jobs obsolete within the next 25 years. What's needed is a new economic model that doesn't rely on unsustainable population growth to sustain it.

-3 ( +5 / -8 )

The wheels were set in motion back in the 1970s when Japan as a nation was an economic heavyweight.

The wealth then, should have been used to lift the living conditions so Japanese received some benefit of their hard work.

However, they kept workers on long hours, mostly salariman, that weren't present for families.

Understandably, their children and those later "dropped out" of Japan Inc, and are now struggling to support themselves, let alone get married and have children.

8 ( +13 / -5 )

At the rate Technology is advancing in about 50 years nations DO NOT need as many people to survive and have a quality life.

-4 ( +5 / -9 )

Three goals 08:21 am JST

Shocking but it is reality. The pension system in place is looking very very shaky! Good luck if you're hoping for a pension payout in 30 years. There are a few solutions around this. Paying people more and increasing the pension premiums. Let immigrants in. However I suspect this won't be happening any time soon.

NHK news last night highlighted the crushing burden working people will face in 2070, as 45m workers will be supporting 37.5m pensioners.

NHK also focused on the expected increase in foreign residents in Japan, from around 2% now to an estimated 11% in 2070, something this Kyodo article entirely fails to mention.

8 ( +12 / -4 )

You think Japan is going to stay "elderly" forever? Do the math, the current "ageing" of Japan is a temporary thing and balance will return within a generation or two at most.

Look at England specifically, the landmass of the island is similar to Japan, with much more livable land area than Japan, but Japan has nearly double the population.

Exactly. Short term pain for long term comfort.

-1 ( +6 / -7 )

The situation where 10% will be foreigners is a bit dangerous. I like foreigners, but ethnic diversity may breed hate and violence, just like in the West.

-5 ( +8 / -13 )

That will still leave over 40 million below 65.

A tiny country with 87 million, proper care home system technology, automation it is very durable.

The alternative is immigration and look at the problems this brings, in Canada a prime example, housing problems, oh the government and activists would like to blame land and property speculation.

But the reality is millions of new homes are needed regardless and immigrants are arriving in greater numbers and faster than these houses can be built no matter how fast they try to build.

Then the idea that new immigrants would live in depopulated areas is a fantasy with 80% migrating to the 3 or 4 largest cities, creating overcrowding and complaints that there isn't enough "public housing" again going back to the government needing to pay!

This is happening all over western countries.

Does Japan want that?

-7 ( +3 / -10 )

Look at England specifically, the landmass of the island is similar to Japan, with much more livable land area than Japan, but Japan has nearly double the population.

England itself is much more densely populated than Japan ( 434 v 336 per square km). If you are talking about the whole UK, it is different (270).

6 ( +9 / -3 )

Highly OPTIMISTIC FANTASY actuarial modeling here folks!

Prior Covid-19 infection per Lancet (Top Medical Journal, UK), contributing to EXCESS death and severe disease for ALL age groups. Research released this year.

Number of people dying increasing double digits EVERYWHERE, likely % increase this year in Japan will be conservatively 1000/people/day or b/w 20-25% increase vs. 2022, could be double that if you believe Lancet's work.

Japan lucky if 87 million by 2050, forgetting aging and geopolitical risk escalation/war.

Seems immigration and more babies both great but seems difficult given track-record and Japan continuing to be 'captured' by its legacy culture that inhibits access to global talent and connection needed to compete in borderless digital economy - Galapagos.

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

To all the millennials and under, you can kiss your pension goodbye. Either save up now or invest in a reliable retirement fund (if there are any anymore). The alternative would be to Yolo all your money now and enjoy the moment. We can all sink together when the time has come.

7 ( +14 / -7 )

We all know this is happening in every single developed country that isn’t accepting immigration to raise the replenishment rate. And no matter how much child care, or how much workers/parents rights you throw at it , it won’t reverse. We just want too much of a good life. SDCA is perfectly right. The pension will only be there either as a top up for those that have no money saved or as an emergency. Otherwise they will copy other countries facing the same dilemma. Compulsive self invested pension. Get your my number and you IDECO ready now. Because you will be forced to pay probably 2% of your salary with the company paying 2%.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

And the last Japanese will switch the light off over these islands in around 2500, assuming any power remaining.

0 ( +6 / -6 )

"Japan's population projected to shrink 30% to 87 mil in 2070"

If one is paying attention, it will be obvious that, by 2070, 87 mil could well be the GLOBAL population of surviving Homo demens... but, for a sure large reduction in the population of Nihon sooner than 2070: War with China.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

You think Japan is going to stay "elderly" forever?

If by "forever" you mean "literally for all eternity" then no.

But at any meaningful timescale - my own lifeteime, my children's lifetime - yes, Japan is going to keep getting more and more elderly. This is what concerns me, and should concern anyone living and raising kids in this country.

 Do the math, the current "ageing" of Japan is a temporary thing and balance will return within a generation or two at most.

This is just incorrect. The Math is crystal clear - this is going to last far longer than a generation or two, the graying of the population is already baked in due to 50 years of sub replacement level birth rates. Even in the highly unlikely event that they raise the birthrate to replacement levels next year we'd still be stuck with a population that was getting grayer and grayer for generations to come. And even that isn't going to happen since there is simply no realistic pathway to getting back to replacement levels in the near or mid term future.

This is a problem that will play out well into the future.

-4 ( +10 / -14 )

For once I agree with you there Elvis.

Oh, how that made my day.

I'd say you have agreed with me more often than you care to admit.

Can't disagree with that.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

All those commenting how this is a good thing because ....... Tokyo and Osaka ........ maybe take a trian ride away from your bustling cities and wander out in the Japanese countryside. You know the place where all the food you eat come from. The decline and abandonment of agriculture and fishing industries in Japan is going to have a profound impact on everyone's lives here.

Or maybe we can get AI robots to grow our foods and harvest the seas.......and maybe change our diapers along the way.......

Pretty sure I won't be around to see that, but my 6 grandkids here will. Sad!

10 ( +14 / -4 )

The Japanese are a good people, . . . they need more opportunity to meet each other and form relationships . . . .

3 ( +6 / -3 )

And my recent paper on the topic proves that's a good thing. https://www.japanesestudies.org.uk/ejcjs/vol23/iss1/rogers.html

This is a very disingenuous description of what your paper purports to prove.

Your paper doesn't address the question of whether Japan's population trends are beneficial or detrimental to it. Rather you purport to offer an analysis of Japan's demographics based on the simple metric of its population density (LMTPR as you label it).

Frankly there are a lot of problems with your paper.

First, its really obvious that you are writing in a field that isn't your area of expertise. While interdisciplinary research is great, doing it alone like that is always dangerous in academic writing. The underlying assumption of your paper is that an ideal population size for a given country (at which a "population can stabilise while maintaining its current quality of life and world power status")  is even something that can be estimated (let alone by such a simple metric as population density).

That is a really bold assumption and one that I doubt anyone specializing in demographic studies would make. I'm not such an expert myself, but the pitfalls of such an assumption should be obvious - there are a massive number of variables, many of which difficult/impossible to measure, which would have to be accounted for in creating a model to even try to address that question. You basically skip that hard work and instead focus on population density without really making the case that this is a sensible way of addressing the question.

This is further hampered by your literature review, which isn't really a literature review. that addresses the question. Your literature review should be focused on explaining what previous studies in the field have demonstrated about using population density to try to determine the ideal population for a country to stabilize at, which is the core focus of your paper. You don't offer that (because no such literature exists?) and instead offer a very meandering summary of disparate issues related to Japan's demographic trends in general, and you go off on several tangents (wonder if Japan should abandon kanji?) and make several arguments that don't belong in a literature review section but rather should be elsewhere (if mentioned at all).

Another problem is that you haven't really done much original here. Your puported statistical results are just a table of select countries ranked by population density, data that anyone could put together in about 30 seconds after a Google search. This is just lazy. You really couldn't find data about what latitude these countries in your table are at? Seriously? You should be embarassed by that claim, it makes it impossible to take anything you've written seriously.

Finally your discussion section just offers some superficial comparisons of Germany and Japan's economies to come to the conclusion that Japan should aim for about a Germany-ish sized population. This is just a mess honestly and isn't at all convincing.

2 ( +6 / -4 )

And oh, by the way JT, posting a story about the declining population and the pitfalls lsociety faces if the trend is not reversed and then illustrating that story with a photo of the busiest pedestrian crossing in the country at peak hours is a bit confusing, don't you think?

9 ( +10 / -1 )

All these population projections are based on the assumption that the current trends will continue uninterrupted. Things rarely turn out the way the government predicts. So no need to be alarmed. 

They are very strongly established trends though. Like life expectancy, the existing birthrates, marriage rates, and lifestyles, existing immigration, attitudes to immigration and appeal of Japan to immigrants, etc.

The most likely of these to change is the appeal of Japan to immigrants, not because of any improvements to Japan or pro-immigration policies, but because climate change is likely to make other places inhabitable.

Breakthroughs in renewable energy and AI could create humungous amounts of new wealth. However, as things stand, it is obvious that such wealth is not going to to ordinary people, it'll go to Musk, Bezos, Mr. Zozotown and whoever. Such tech will not be liberating for Japanese people or anyone coming to Japan.

1 ( +4 / -3 )

And oh, by the way JT, posting a story about the declining population and the pitfalls lsociety faces if the trend is not reversed and then illustrating that story with a photo of the busiest pedestrian crossing in the country at peak hours is a bit confusing, don't you think?

A picture of an abandoned shopping street in a small town where almost everyone is over 70 years old would have probably been more apt.

4 ( +12 / -8 )

And the last Japanese will switch the light off over these islands in around 2500, assuming any power remaining.

Movie idea: Last Japanese on Earth.

-1 ( +5 / -6 )

In recent months I have been into several family restaurants and Izakaya chains,

With perhaps 2 waiting staff for dozens of full tables.

Zero problems, why?

Well we ordered via a tablet, and a funny Dalek like robot delivered our order.

Welcome to the future!

By 2070 we will have far more advanced robots to supplement human staff in care homes, etc... greatly reducing personnel and costs.

This isn't science fiction anymore 2 years ago you rarely if ever saw these robot waiters today they are everywhere.

-5 ( +5 / -10 )

This isn't science fiction anymore 2 years ago you rarely if ever saw these robot waiters today they are everywhere.

Took a video of one and posted it on my facebook

1 ( +2 / -1 )

wanderlust

Today 09:22 am JST

And the last Japanese will switch the light off over these islands in around 2500, assuming any power remaining.

So suddenly everyone will stop having children in Japan?

No more power? Why, will the wind stop, the sun disappear, dams burst?

Look at the response to covid and after.

The USA couldn't take closures reopened fast but has a labour shortage now in service industry, solution try bringing in cheap labour immigration.

Canada and the EU same problem service staff shortages, solution immigration and offer more money for the few available.

Japan solution, tablet menus, robotics servers, automation and fast implementation of it all.

-6 ( +2 / -8 )

But at any meaningful timescale - my own lifeteime, my children's lifetime - yes, Japan is going to keep getting more and more elderly. This is what concerns me, and should concern anyone living and raising kids in this country.

EXACTLY!

-6 ( +8 / -14 )

Many on JT will not be around in 2070. 1.5 million restaurants but increased costs of supplies and energy are pushing some to close down.

Lower government income.

5 ( +6 / -1 )

Aly Rustom

Today 10:50 am JST

This isn't science fiction anymore 2 years ago you rarely if ever saw these robot waiters today they are everywhere.

> Took a video of one and posted it on my facebook

Skylar's Syabuyo shabu shabu all you can eat has these robots, they bring you your meat you place your empty plates and meat dishes in exchange.

Never see a human waiting staff unless something goes wrong.

These are primitive robots, in 5 years things will be very different.

-4 ( +2 / -6 )

The country will need 30 million foreigners with something like equal rights to citizens such as voting.

3 ( +6 / -3 )

Dave

Today 10:58 am JST

Well, when 2070 rolls around, I will be the first one here to say I told you so

Not to me you won't.

By 2070 I would be far into my 100s if I would still be around.

-6 ( +0 / -6 )

There are millions of people in other countries who are descendants of the Japanese.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

More room on the trains. Less crowds in Shibuya, and shorter lines at restaurants. Sounds awesome for future generations. Too many people are in Japan today. A bright future ahead.

-9 ( +0 / -9 )

Look at England specifically, the landmass of the island is similar to Japan

Japan is THREE TIMES bigger than England.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Only the urban areas are crowded. Tokyo government income will fall. Income for transport companies will fall. Fewer restaurants will be needed.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

I'm sorry, but your paper does not prove this. It only proves that future Japan will have a population density more similar to that of Germany and the UK. It doesn't consider demographic (changes) or other factors besides population density which are also important. The problem isn't that there will be too few people in Japan, the problem is there will be too few young people.

And my recent paper on the topic proves that's a good thing. https://www.japanesestudies.org.uk/ejcjs/vol23/iss1/rogers.html

6 ( +7 / -1 )

Japan's population will shrink by 30% in fifty years? I'll believe it when I see it. Oh, wait, I won't be around to see it. Still, seems like a pretty drastic change in demographics. Perhaps the government will choose to make it easier for people of child-bearing age to support themselves and their children?

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

More room on the trains. Less crowds in Shibuya, and shorter lines at restaurants. Sounds awesome for future generations. Too many people are in Japan today. A bright future ahead.

Each of these points are just plain wrong.

More room on trains? No. You'll just have smaller trains that run less frequently, cost more and are just as crowded as they are now. This is how business works: Fewer customers = scaled back business operations.

Less crowds in Shibuya? Well, maybe, but a less crowded Shibuya is going to be a Shibuya with way fewer businesses and way fewer things to do. Turning Shibuya into a boring empty place isn't a plus.

Shorter lines at restaurants? No, you'll just have fewer restaurants. Again, this is how business works.

1 ( +8 / -7 )

And 50per cent of this 87M were age over 60 ? Awesome !

4 ( +4 / -0 )

Great news in an extremely over-populated country and indeed, world.

-6 ( +2 / -8 )

More than 80% of Japan's land mass is mountains.

1 ( +4 / -3 )

That's the good news. The bad news is that it will 1 carer per 100 elderly.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

rainyday

Today 11:25 am JST

You seem to dismiss or ignore technical advances, after all we are talking nearly 50 years from now.

You ignore or dismiss lower population means few resources needed, so less electric power, smaller trains or at least fewer train cars will not bother anyone as there will be fewer people, fewer train cars means less power needed this partially offsetting less users.

If the yamanote today each need 10 cars per train and in 2070 it only needs 5 and the efficiency of the electric motors will have improved then we can expect a far lower operating cost that will offset less passengers.

It is interesting to see how many here are all for the doom and gloom scenario.

I suspect some are the "open borders" type wanting to see more people immgrate.

But looking at countries that do use immigration to counter population shrinking, why would Japan want it?

Racial tensions, ethnic fighting, demands the original population change its culture to accommodate the newer arrivals or their descendants.

Why would Japan want those problems.

Build robots, automate as much as possible accept a smaller population.

-4 ( +3 / -7 )

Japan will need to greatly increase its foreign population to maintain the taxes and social welfare payments to support the aging community. 10 times the current levels.

4 ( +7 / -3 )

You seem to dismiss or ignore technical advances, after all we are talking nearly 50 years from now.

Not at all, technical advances will undoubtedly happen. But those things will happen independent of demographic change, not because of it.

You ignore or dismiss lower population means few resources needed, so less electric power, smaller trains or at least fewer train cars will not bother anyone as there will be fewer people, fewer train cars means less power needed this partially offsetting less users.

Yes, but if the issue is crowding, then using fewer train cars will just mean that although there are fewer people, there will also be less space and they'll be just as crowded as they are now.

Businesses are run to maximize profit. Even with technical advances, hauling the weight of train cars is going to require energy which is going to cost money (not to mention cost of purchasing and maintaining cars, etc). If they have fewer riders, meaning less money coming in, they are going to find efficiencies, which is going to mean reducing car numbers or frequency of trains. This isn't something I'm discussing in the abstract, this is exactly what they have done to train services in rural areas where populations have declined.

It is interesting to see how many here are all for the doom and gloom scenario.

I suspect some are the "open borders" type wanting to see more people immgrate.

But looking at countries that do use immigration to counter population shrinking, why would Japan want it?

Its interesting to me how guys like you always turn the debate on any issue into an opportunity to air greivances against immigration while ignoring serious and real concerns that you don't have an answer to. I haven't said anything about immigration.

Technological advances will undoubtedly help alleviate some of the issues related to the greying population, but it should be bloody obvious that robots aren't a substitute for having young people exist in society. You've glibly told us you'll be dead by the time these problems come home to roost, but some of us have children whose futures we actually care about and we have to actually give a dam about what this country is going to be like 50 years from now. If Japan doesn't want immigration fine, but if that is the case it needs to fix its birthrate.

2 ( +7 / -5 )

By 2070, the majority of the workforce will need a universal income with work replaced by AI-aided technology.

1 ( +4 / -3 )

Japan will need to greatly increase its foreign population to maintain the taxes and social welfare payments to support the aging community. 10 times the current levels.

I disagree.

AI and robots will do the job.

The Japanese government should provide all elderly people over 65 with a robot that will act as a personal assistant. This will eliminate the need for care workers etc.

-4 ( +3 / -7 )

Although the demographic cliff and the dire consequences for the nation are very real, the massive societal changes just on the horizon, brought about by the dawn of AI ( very matrixy I know ) means that NO ONE knows what the world will look like in 2040, never mind 2070. To think that graphs will behave as they have done until now and that we can predict for example, that 10% of Japan's population will be foreigners in 2070, is just a fallacy. No one knows anything about the future, that's all I know.

Sort of exciting too when you think of it. Nothing is written in stone , yet!

0 ( +2 / -2 )

MiuraAnjinToday  11:11 am JST

Look at England specifically, the landmass of the island is similar to Japan

Japan is THREE TIMES bigger than England.

Japan's 75% mountains & no 'Commonwealth', plus now Population driven primarily by econonics not land mass!

-4 ( +1 / -5 )

Japan would probably belong to China by then…. And population would increase with an influx of Chinese …. There will not be another kamikaze to save us unfortunately

3 ( +7 / -4 )

rainyday

Today 12:14 pm JST

You seem to dismiss or ignore technical advances, after all we are talking nearly 50 years from now.

> Not at all, technical advances will undoubtedly happen. But those things will happen independent of demographic change, not because of it.

Well funny how demographics and lack of workers created all these new robot waiters in record time right after covid!

Demographics are a major reason for change and always have been.

Home automation like automatic washing machines and dryers weren't first invented then the need, it was the changing demographics of working women that created the need for better more automated machines.

Elevators went from a rich novelty to a necessity because of demographics, more people living and working in higher buildings.

Highway construction, due to Demographics, as people lived further from work and drove to commute daily!

Its interesting to me how guys like you always turn the debate on any issue into an opportunity to air greivances against immigration while ignoring serious and real concerns that you don't have an answer to. I haven't said anything about immigration.

Guys like me live in reality, we gave seen the results, we walk in Tokyo, Osaka, etc...late night in safety but our old neighbourhood back home even in the day time is no longer safe.

-5 ( +1 / -6 )

Well funny how demographics and lack of workers created all these new robot waiters in record time right after covid!

Demographics are a major reason for change and always have been.

Home automation like automatic washing machines and dryers weren't first invented then the need, it was the changing demographics of working women that created the need for better more automated machines.

Elevators went from a rich novelty to a necessity because of demographics, more people living and working in higher buildings.

Highway construction, due to Demographics, as people lived further from work and drove to commute daily!

Yeah, my main argument isn't that there is zero connection between demographic changes and technological development. Clearly there sometimes is, though demographic changes are just one of many factors influencing those things.

My argument is that robots aren't a substitute for having young people exist in society. THAT is the problem. Having robot waiters serve you at an Izakaya is very neat and it does solve the problem of not having a young person be a waiter (or other jobs that can be replaced by robots). The problem is that serving as waiters (etc) isn't the only function that young people fulfill in society.

Guys like me live in reality, we gave seen the results, we walk in Tokyo, Osaka, etc...late night in safety but our old neighbourhood back home even in the day time is no longer safe.

Yeah, this is my point. You aren't viewing Japan's demographic problem as a "Japan problem" and addressing it as such. You are instead viewing it as a "Problems I have with immigrants in Canada" issue. This is a completely useless framing. Yeah, there may indeed by a lot of negative social costs associated with mass immigration in Canada, and yeah, Japan should consider that when deciding what to do. That dosn't mean that Japan should just let robots do everything and pretend that the collapse of its youth population isn't a serious bloody problem.

4 ( +8 / -4 )

Righteous

Today 12:46 pm JST

I anticipate taxes will go up dramatically. The unfortunate young will be exploited slaves of the old

No the government is actually expecting a windfall from inheritance and the simple fact that the vast majority of government bonds are domestic owned.

In the end a large position of bonds, savings, property will end up in the government coffers!

-4 ( +0 / -4 )

AI and robots will help more with time.

Who will care for robots : young people, immigrants or not enough people ?

You have your answer to what dire situation is heading Japan.

Some people think that persons are no longer required to live properly. If mechanical actions can be taken care of somehow, it still won't mean thinking and services will be dealt all by the Matrix and we all be happy. Or maybe ?

50 years of sure decline in view of Japanese population pyramid.

Where is the future of mankind : love and sex in all that ?

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Well, when 2070 rolls around, I will be the first one here to say I told you so

You are one of the spring chicken I was referring to! Things will be much brighter here in Japan, if the government finally realizes that its folks your age that need more support and assistance, with out all the stupid strings attached!

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Rather than having immigrants coming in we may have young Japanese rushing out to avoid to have to bear the weight of this aging society!

3 ( +4 / -1 )

2070 is far away. Entire world population may shrink more than 30% by then. It doesn’t seems like a trivial issue, only 30% change in so many years to come.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

RakurakuToday  01:32 pm JST

Rather than having immigrants coming in we may have young Japanese rushing out to avoid to have to bear the weight of this aging society!

> tokyo_mToday  01:46 pm JST

The country will need 30 million foreigners with something like equal rights to citizens such as voting.

Indeed. Unless Japan starts allowing dual-citizenship, this country is finished.

How RIGHT you both are!

Country mindset no longer works, again I ask, where's this successful country culture-based corporation?

THERE IS NO NEW COUNTRY CULTURE ANYWHERE

0 ( +3 / -3 )

I mean to say it does seem trivial. Typo error.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

I wonder if increasingly sedantary jobs and an increasingly Western diet will mean that future retirees will have more health problems than current retirees.

I can foresee Japan having not only more retirees, that's already decided, but also ones who need more medical treatment, placing a higher burden per capita on the shrinking workforce.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

...those aged 65 or above in Japan are projected to hit 33.67 million in 2070 after peaking at 39.53 million in 2043. In 2070, they will comprise 38.7 percent of the population, resulting in ballooning social security costs.

What nonsense. Currently 28.9% of the population are over 65. So during the next 47 years this will increase by (38.7-28.9)/47 = 0.2% per year, hardly a balloon.

If people work for 40yrs in their lifetime, then an extra 0.2% comes out to raising the retirement age by one month, per year. So raising it 4yrs to 69 by 2070 would be enough.

Pretty sure the retirement age will be 80 by then ....

-5 ( +0 / -5 )

If the Government has taken-care costs of children pre-school and education, and then that will encourage young peoples to get married and get the baby. Also, Government must be acknowledged there were many newborn babies died from disposed by young unmarried mother. The babies never should have died from that kind of circumstance.

The Japanese Government can do a lot of things with more sex education classes and girls only sex education class in the School. The Government must be placing unwanted baby Dumpster at the local Hospital and the place where 24 hrs nurses are attending. So, young mother can drop the baby without worrying caught by someone else. Also, there should be maternity clinics for young pregnant mother can give birth without afraid of know by other peoples.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Yes and it'll be a heavily aged 87 million people, with the population graph upside down.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

On the flipside, I'd bet that the most impoverish third world populations are probably going to grow much more than 30% by 2070 which would not be a good thing.

6 ( +6 / -0 )

I don't believe these numbers.

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

Maybe by 2070 I'll be able to board the Tokyo Sky Tree elevator without a 45 minute wait to buy a ticket.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

The World's Shrinking Population - YouTube

an interesting video on global depopulation

2 ( +2 / -0 )

A lot can happen in 50 years.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

The 30% shrink of Japan's population in 47 years from now, that is, by 2070? That's a real headache for not only government planners but all of us.

We must keep asking what the real cause of Japan's population decline is. Maybe, it's the end result of pursuing material prosperity by modern human beings. Along this line is the change of thought about marriage. 

 Is traditional mode of thinking about marriage so bad whereby it must be destroyed completely as Mao Zedong's Cultural Revolution has done on everything traditional?

2 ( +2 / -0 )

An important detail missed out of this article is that the population fall is NOT going to be equal across the country. Tokyo, Osaka, Yokohama, Nagoya and a couple of other major cities are going to only decrease a little or in Tokyo's case increase slightly. Tohoku is going to be a wasteland with a space population of geriatrics.

9 ( +9 / -0 )

Forced childbirth is not an answer.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

Think logically : Is 1.3 kid only average the future ?

You got your answer : not sustainable in the long term.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Nothing to complain here, its actually might be a better for japan since this island is miserably over populated.

-5 ( +2 / -7 )

Nothing to complain here, its actually might be a better for japan since this island is miserably over populated

Hope you have a plan for retirement then! You don't want to be old and poor!

4 ( +4 / -0 )

An important detail missed out of this article is that the population fall is NOT going to be equal across the country. Tokyo, Osaka, Yokohama, Nagoya and a couple of other major cities are going to only decrease a little or in Tokyo's case increase slightly. Tohoku is going to be a wasteland with a space population of geriatrics.

Sendai will be the hub, not sure if Morioka, Yamagata City, etc. will hold up.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

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