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Parts of Japan emerge from virus emergency; Tokyo needs fewer than 20 daily infections

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By Rocky Swift

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© Thomson Reuters 2020.

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It’s a Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.......Friday. She bores me to death...

-8 ( +4 / -12 )

Good job Japan!

-12 ( +11 / -23 )

While Matsuyama (Ehime) sees an increase of 20 infections.

That puts us up quite some levels on the "infection scale".

Guess we can expect more to come, probably not just "down" here.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

An excellent piece everyone should read: Japan's coronavirus response is flawed -- but it works

Excerpts: "As a result, Japan now has 31,289 dedicated COVID-19 beds, which are at at only 17.1% occupancy."

Yet, despite gloomy forecasts by Japanese politicians, so-called experts, and the media -- especially overseas media -- Japan's status with respect to COVID-19 remains relatively good. The forecast upsurge in cases has not materialized and, in contrast, the number of new positive cases has been trending downward since early April.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Japan-s-coronavirus-response-is-flawed-but-it-works

-10 ( +5 / -15 )

While Matsuyama (Ehime) sees an increase of 20 infections.

The case is a in-house spike at a local hospital, thus it's easy to trace and crush a cluster. In the Ehime prefecture, there have been to date 63 cases confirmed, 3 dead, which I think is pretty minimal. Yet, true, such a mini spike could occur at a particular context.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

@Objective

I follow up with another "revisionist" view on Japan's virus response :)

Japan’s Halfhearted Coronavirus Measures Are Working Anyway

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/14/japan-coronavirus-pandemic-lockdown-testing/

We don't need a praise (though Abe might want to seek fairer assessment) which could lead to make us overly complacent. But we definitely need a serious investigation into such outlying phenomenon which is significant (no major stat. errors), yet hardly explained about.

It's not limited uniquely to Japan. For some countries seem to have dodged a virus bullet despite clumsy responses or relatively poor healthcare systems while some others suffers a lot despite high-end quality in health care service and serious efforts by authorities. To get better prepared for a second wave and thereafter, we need to unveil this mystery.

-7 ( +3 / -10 )

when you are only testing about 150 people a day, keeping positive results under 20 should be no problem.

10 ( +17 / -7 )

Tokyo with the most cases in Japan should be under a strict lockdown...

0 ( +13 / -13 )

Good. In another week or so all other prefectures will follow suit and things will be back to normal. Sorry JT doomsayers, didn’t get the pandemic you wanted.

2 ( +13 / -11 )

The emergency gives governors more authority to tell people to stay at home and to close schools and businesses but there is no penalty for non-compliance.

haha typical Japan

2 ( +6 / -4 )

The trend is looking good with fewer infections. Hopefully things will improve from here.

5 ( +7 / -2 )

"noriahojanen",

maybe you want to explain this more to me:

The case is a in-house spike at a local hospital, thus it's easy to trace and crush a cluster. 

With those people running around after work, probably have family members and so on, guess they will be spreading the virus (with or without knowing). If you assume an infection rate of 1:1 that means in a short time double the people will (or may not) have COVID 19 symptoms. Keeping on counting this way ... it wouldn't look too good, now, would it?

But maybe you have more information and knowledge than me and I am always willing to learn!

0 ( +2 / -2 )

Yikes! Down votes again for commenters sharing good news. I guess people want Japan to fail here or like bad news. People are strange.

-1 ( +13 / -14 )

@Objective

Excerpts: "As a result, Japan now has 31,289 dedicated COVID-19 beds, which are at at only 17.1% occupancy."

Well if you refuse people in hospital, by definition your beds remain unoccupied.

10 ( +15 / -5 )

@Objective

An excellent piece everyone should read: Japan's coronavirus response is flawed -- but it works

Written by someone with zero medical background. Pass.

Andy Crump is a consultant at the Medical Governance Research Institute, or MEGRI, and a visiting professor at Kitasato University, Keio University and St Luke's International University in Tokyo. He previously worked as a multimedia communications officer at the World Health Organization for 15 years. Since 2004, he has handled the English-language communications for Nobel Prize-winning biochemist Satoshi Omura.

0 ( +4 / -4 )

I really think 20 is too low limit. Especially with all the problems with the test. Maybe it's doable but getting under 20 a day is kind of a pipe dream.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

"Whatsnext",

don't worry, with the "Japanese counting system" any- and everything is possible.

Remember the "Olympics-pre-cancellation-times"?

-1 ( +5 / -6 )

Just test 19 people. Done!

9 ( +13 / -4 )

I really think 20 is too low limit. Especially with all the problems with the test. Maybe it's doable but getting under 20 a day is kind of a pipe dream.

I agree! When you are talking about what, close to 15,000,000 people! 20 is a drop in the bucket!

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Nationwide, Japan has reported 16,203 cases of the coronavirus...

Ha, ha, ha. Makes you wonder why they even bothered testing at all.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

but said the urban centers of Tokyo and Osaka and six other prefectures will remain under restrictions until there is convincing containment of the coronavirus.

The numbers have been dropping like a satellite in freefall until Tokyo is now in single digits, doesn't make sense keeping the SOE in place. is it supposed to drop to zero to be convincing containment, looks like they are hiding something from us, likely knowing the true infection way more than is reported since what they have been doing is basically controlling the flow at the outlet by regulating the inlet.

-8 ( +0 / -8 )

@klausdorth

Traceability is key, and I see the current Ehime case and its spread history more traceable despite a relatively large size in number. Transmission between unknowns to neighboring unknowns is harder to track down, let alone to contain.

In the meantime, the validity of full containment remains to be explored. In the long run, herd immunity only gives a way out.

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

"noriahojanen",

herd immunity, you mean like Sweden? Have you seen what's happening there? Doesn't look too goo, does it?

And by the way, we got another two infections in Ehime, bringing today's count to 22!

2 ( +6 / -4 )

@Northernlife

Well said! Glad you’re keeping it real. You can’t take out an insurance plan after the incident. Folly if you believe the government is gonna lift the state of emergency without making sure they have no accountability first.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

when you are only testing about 150 people a day, keeping positive results under 20 should be no problem.

I'm aware of sarcasm...

In Tokyo the number of inquiries (diagnosis request) over the phone has also been decreasing since April. It does not, no longer look like more and more people calling for testing.

新型コロナ受診相談窓口相談件数

https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/cards/number-of-reports-to-covid19-consultation-desk/

-2 ( +2 / -4 )

*5/6 *37

*5/7 *23

*5/8 *39

*5/9 *36

*5/10 *22

*5/11 *15

*5/12 *28

*5/13 *10

*5/14 *30

On several days they haven't even tested 20 people and even on the other days they have tested barely more than their set number. If you only test 15 or 10 people, you're bound to have less than 20 new cases...

That is not the number of people tested, it is the number of new positive cases.

The number of people ranges from 75-400 over the last week.

It might seem low, but testing people by contact tracing makes sense.

8 ( +8 / -0 )

It would be nice if the people who think it’s safe now to go back to normal to at least share what insurance policies that they have that the rest of us aren’t aware of? Please highlight where it states you are covered for COVID-19 for infection/health care/death.

It’s only sensible to have these in place before returning to normal right?

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

This is the real number of tests.

5/6 65

5/7 111

5/8 134

5/9 155

5/10 253

5/11 108

5/12 72

5/13 87

1 ( +2 / -1 )

On several days they haven't even tested 20 people and even on the other days they have tested barely more than their set number. If you only test 15 or 10 people, you're bound to have less than 20 new cases

For a city of 12M, the number of tests performed is criminal, the biggest disappointment is the media taking part in the charade instead of rightly educating the public. Well, the low numbers instill feel-good and national pride which is more important than the health of the citizens.

7 ( +11 / -4 )

It might seem low, but testing people by contact tracing makes sense.

Makes sense when the virus has not spread in the society, which is not the case here. At this stage with the virus widely spread, it is a waste of time and resources contact tracing.

Testing massively, tracing and isolating is the only way.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

In Tokyo the number of inquiries (diagnosis request) over the phone has also been decreasing since April. It does not, no longer look like more and more people calling for testing.

Requests for testing from people tend to decrease when they are continually denied those tests, because of the ridiculously high bar set for testing in the first place. This is well publicized.

It also tends to decrease when the health center simply don't pick up the phone, as was the case with the 28 sumo wrestler who died after trying for 3 days to successfully contact a health center.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

the 28 sumo wrestler who died after trying for 3 days to successfully contact a health center.

sorry, that should read...

the 28 year old sumo wrestler who died after trying unsuccessfully for 3 days to contact a health center.

6 ( +9 / -3 )

Open up the economy quickly

0 ( +5 / -5 )

More people will die due to the closing of economies than from Covid.

-1 ( +6 / -7 )

@Taro

It would be nice if the people who think it’s safe now to go back to normal to at least share what insurance policies that they have that the rest of us aren’t aware of? Please highlight where it states you are covered for COVID-19 for infection/health care/death.

It’s only sensible to have these in place before returning to normal right?

Speaking of insurance, several firms have launched corona-related services. Kanpo Life ensures a double size amount to corona patients:

保険金の2倍支払い決定 かんぽ生命、新型コロナで

https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO58086860V10C20A4EE9000/

You sense it? Firms are NOT doing the charity. All schemes are designed for maximizing profit in CBA. Their business would benefit, so long as many people feel scared and urged to pay premiums while actual infection and death numbers have continued to stay minimal. Don't blame those firms. Ignorance is an easy prey.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

One more info concerning "herd immunity":

https://www.yahoo.com/news/swedens-per-capita-coronavirus-death-233500208.html

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Typical Media story.

" We're down to 9 but real numbers may be higher..."

I am wondering , when we are down to 0-1 infections a day - will media ever say we are safe or will it still be :

" real numbers may be higher..." ?*
-2 ( +1 / -3 )

@noriahojanen

Cheers. Basically, you’re a fool if you do and you’re a fool if you don’t right? If you don’t and take the risk and worse case die from COVID-19 you’re a fool. If you do you might not get infected but paid out the ¥100,000 you haven’t even got yet and some insurance will take your money!

Only solution, stay home until it’s safe to go back to work and “normal”.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

urban centers of Tokyo and Osaka and six other prefectures will remain under restrictions until there is convincing containment of the coronavirus.

today 9 cases over a population of 13 million people, do the math and see how ridicolous is this state of emergency...

ps : Tokyo will be the next NYC (lol, you really made me laugh during this month)

-4 ( +3 / -7 )

Good job Japan!

Thanks, we all need a good laugh on a Friday night..the sarcasm is appreciated :)

-2 ( +3 / -5 )

ConfusiusToday 06:38 pm JST

This is the real number of tests.

5/6 65

5/7 111

5/8 134

5/9 155

5/10 253

5/11 108

5/12 72

5/13 87

so tell me how many people died in Tokyo for corona virus, dead numbers can't be hide

but remember we are talking about a 13mln people, not 30,000, so everything under 10,000 (which means 0,1%) is not worth for declaring a state of emergency

-6 ( +2 / -8 )

Just declare this so called state-of-emergency over! Everyone knows it is for nothing yet the economy is getting damaged beyond repair. There were probably more infected in Tokyo before the postponement of the Olympics than now.

-4 ( +1 / -5 )

LDP's Japan is like Mini China in term of data suppression, saving faces, corruption and covering up. The US and EU know that Japan is lying in this case. They barred Japanese travelers to come into their countries before the Olympics was postponed.

4 ( +8 / -4 )

I can see alternative viewpoints being posted.

I understand the debate as to if this is a real emergency or not. The numbers are revealing a much lower mortality rate but it is still very infectious (I do not want to get this).

However asking for "fewer than 20 daily infections" to be used alone as a metric does not make sense to me and it is not scientific. It needs to be based on a minimum number of tests (appropriate sample size) or a percentage of those tested who are found to be infected.

This needs to be addressed scientifically and it does not appear this is being done if this is the true metric.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

How lame can you people get?

Basically test are submitted to people who fits a criteria potentially afflicted with COVID-19.

Meaning that the number of test going down also means that potential case of COVID-19 all together is going down with it.

Doing any random testing was never the intent of the government, the intent was to contain the disease in which the requirement of testing going down shows clear proof that number of cases requiring testing is going down meaning the overall health of is going up.

-2 ( +4 / -6 )

Nobody dies of the virus-they die with it...

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Cognac

so tell me how many people died in Tokyo for corona virus, dead numbers can't be hide

Can you educate us why you think death cannot be hidden.

China last month revised upward by 1300 the death rate for Wuhan from Covid-19. They got away with under reporting it and felt guilt that the wuhan number was low after European and U.S numbers just kept on increasing.

1 ( +5 / -4 )

drluciferToday 08:42 pm JST

Cognac

so tell me how many people died in Tokyo for corona virus, dead numbers can't be hide

Can you educate us why you think death cannot be hidden.

China last month revised upward by 1300 the death rate for Wuhan from Covid-19. They got away with under reporting it and felt guilt that the wuhan number was low after European and U.S numbers just kept on increasing.

As of Tuesday, there were 633 deaths in Japan attributed to the virus, far fewer than the some 80,000 in the U.S, and 32,000 in the U.K., with Japan having the fewest confirmed cases and deaths of any Group of Seven leading democracy. Japanese authorities have placed a high emphasis on identifying infection clusters and limiting their spread.

While authorities have acknowledged that, similar to other countries, the true size of the infection in Japan is unknown, they have said they’re confident in grasping the scale of the casualties. Tokyo, with an estimated population of about 14 million, has had the most confirmed cases in Japan, at almost 5,000.

read carefully this :

"The capital saw 33,106 deaths in the three months through March, 0.4% fewer than the average of the previous four years for the same period, according to data from the Tokyo Metropolitan Government. Data for April, when new daily virus cases peaked in the city, is not yet available."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-12/tokyo-mortality-tally-shows-no-surge-in-deaths-during-pandemic

-4 ( +2 / -6 )

I'm amazed that so many of these countries shut down their economies for this. We have nurses in the US. furloughed from their jobs because of not enough work and we're dismantling the "unused" temporary facilities that costs millions to build. First it was flatten the curve now it's turned into no one should leave until we have a vaccine in the U.S. We don't have a vaccine for the common cold nor the flu so don't bet on one for this either. Dr. Fauci in the beginning said don't wear a mask and now he says do wear a mask. It's truly an amazing time to be a sheep.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

Tiring.

Doing any random testing was never the intent of the government, the intent was to contain the disease in which the requirement of testing going down shows clear proof that number of cases requiring testing is going down meaning the overall health of is going up.

I am afraid it is you who is lame.

Nobody has demanded that the government do random testing.

Testing has remained low from the onset despite people with symptoms being refused testing even when doctors recommend that a test is necessary. Japan has the potential to do 100,000 test a day but did on average 6500 test a day eventhough Abe promised 20,000 test a day, half of that number has never been realised. The past week the number of test has dropped to levels of a country with a population of 5,000 people, which is really a shame. Even the vatican at its peak tested more than japan is testing now.

5 ( +6 / -1 )

@drlucifer

The reason for low testing is because the potential cases were low simple as that.

If there is no requirement of testing then why do it?

No probable cause no need to do it and yet you bang on numbers which really do not make any sense.

You say that nobody demanded random testing and yet you are implying it by talking about numbers.

That is what I call lame.

-5 ( +1 / -6 )

The jGov isjust going to fake the numbers so that they can open. There is no transparancy

4 ( +7 / -3 )

drluciferToday 08:42 pm JST

Can you educate us why you think death cannot be hidden.

China last month revised upward by 1300 the death rate for Wuhan from Covid-19. They got away with under reporting it and felt guilt that the wuhan number was low after European and U.S numbers just kept on increasing.

It can't be done in a democratic nation.

Basically life insurance companies would need to report the amount paid out to life insurance holder in which if there is a spike it will stick out like a sore thumb.

Mortuaries and, cremation facilities will have a large back log in which corpses will be piling up for the media to report.

A spike in demand for cemeteries lots will drive a sudden peak in the cost for a plot which will also be reported as a market trend.

-1 ( +3 / -4 )

@CognacToday  08:51 pm JST

so tell me how many people died in Tokyo for corona virus, dead numbers can't be hide

> (By drlucifer: Can you educate us why you think death cannot be hidden.

China last month revised upward by 1300 the death rate for Wuhan from Covid-19. They got away with under reporting it and felt guilt that the wuhan number was low after European and U.S numbers just kept on increasing."

As of Tuesday, there were 633 deaths in Japan attributed to the virus, far fewer than the some 80,000 in the U.S, and 32,000 in the U.K., with Japan having the fewest confirmed cases and deaths of any Group of Seven leading democracy. Japanese authorities have placed a high emphasis on identifying infection clusters and limiting their spread.

While authorities have acknowledged that, similar to other countries, the true size of the infection in Japan is unknown, they have said they’re confident in grasping the scale of the casualties. Tokyo, with an estimated population of about 14 million, has had the most confirmed cases in Japan, at almost 5,000.

read carefully this :

"The capital saw 33,106 deaths in the three months through March, 0.4% fewer than the average of the previous four years for the same period, according to data from the Tokyo Metropolitan Government. Data for April, when new daily virus cases peaked in the city, is not yet available."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-12/tokyo-mortality-tally-shows-no-surge-in-deaths-during-pandemic

A few excerpts from some already "older" article, considering, but which are nevertheless still valid:

*"There is also a difficulty in obtaining data about the death rate from pneumonia in Japan. Because of the concern that the lack of testing means some deaths recorded simply as pneumonia might actually be due to COVID-19, there have been calls for MHLW to clarify the recent pneumonia case and death rates. Unlike influenza data, which is published weekly, similar pneumonia data seems to be unavailable. Writer Jake Adelstein recently tweeted that he contacted the ministry directly and was told that the pneumonia reporting period was every three years, and they had no intention of making an exception now. Again, this kind of inflexibility and lack of transparency only increases mistrust and suspicion. We don’t know why the Japanese government doesn’t realize that." *

(https://safecast.org/2020/03/making-sense-of-covid-19-numbers-in-japan/)

-

*"If medical pros find you have pneumonia, they will begin treating you. There is a very good chance you will be cured. And if you are cured, they probably will not test you for coronavirus. So a case of Covid-19 vanishes – literally and statistically.  -- Stats are murkier for the dead. Japan only does autopsies in 10% of suspicious deaths. If someone dies of pneumonia in a hospital, the odds of an autopsy are low. Japan has not released data on the number of autopsies performed to verify whether coronavirus was the cause of death. There is occasionally a post-mortem analysis of tissue samples – but rarely. Possibly, coronavirus deaths are being hidden among pneumonia fatalities. -- The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare told Asia Times: “We only issue those numbers [in a comprehensive survey] every three years.” And the ministry’s latest nationwide hospital admissions data date back to November, before the pandemic struck."* (https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/japans-winning-its-quiet-fight-against-covid-19/)

"Autopsy and post mortem examinations are generally conducted only where there is evidence of violent death, there is reason to suspect foul play, or the cause of death is unknown.

There are three types of autopsies:

1) Judicial autopsy (for criminal investigation purpose by court order)

2) Administrative autopsy (no crimes are involved, but the cause of death is unknown)

3) Pathological autopsy or autopsy by consent (at the request of the family)

*Invasive autopsies are not common in Japan when someone died of medical or natural cause.** Only when death occurred under unusual circumstances, for example, if someone died in a hotel or the police are involved to determine whether there was foul play involved or not. In the event of suicide or accidental death, there is generally no official requirement for an autopsy as part of the police investigation. If next of kin wish to request an autopsy (category three above) or other investigation into the cause of death they should appoint a private legal representative in Japan to make arrangements on their behalf. A funeral home may also be able to assist." *

(https://japan.embassy.gov.au/tkyo/when_someone_dies.html)

"Japan has one of the lowest autopsy rates in the world. -- Nationwide, only 11.7 percent of “unusual deaths” resulted in autopsies, according to National Police Agency figures for 2014. -- In many cases, the barrier is respect for the deceased and consideration of the family’s wishes."

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2016/02/27/editorials/troubling-low-autopsy-rate/#.Xr6LlBMzb6o

The cause of death for patients brought to care (or recently - left to die at home due to refusals at hospitals) for e.g. pneumonia, heart issues, etc. are very likely marked off as such, "natural" (which yes, in a way they are - just accelerated thanks to covid-19), and do not therefore get autopsies, which would confirm the actual cause of death as covid-19.

2 ( +5 / -3 )

The Japanese government has really shot themselves in the foot on this one. Because of where the bar has been set regarding the state emergency, they have no choice but to keep fudging the numbers in order keep the country open and the economy going. A foul circle of insincerity and dishonesty.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

VinkeToday 09:47 pm JST

A few excerpts from some already "older" article, considering, but which are nevertheless still valid:

"There is also a difficulty in obtaining data about the death rate from pneumonia in Japan. Because of the concern that the lack of testing means some deaths recorded simply as pneumonia might actually be due to COVID-19, there have been calls for MHLW to clarify the recent pneumonia case and death rates. Unlike influenza data, which is published weekly, similar pneumonia data seems to be unavailable. Writer Jake Adelstein recently tweeted that he contacted the ministry directly and was told that the pneumonia reporting period was every three years, and they had no intention of making an exception now. Again, this kind of inflexibility and lack of transparency only increases mistrust and suspicion. We don’t know why the Japanese government doesn’t realize that."

(https://safecast.org/2020/03/making-sense-of-covid-19-numbers-in-japan/)

-

"If medical pros find you have pneumonia, they will begin treating you. There is a very good chance you will be cured. And if you are cured, they probably will not test you for coronavirus. So a case of Covid-19 vanishes – literally and statistically. -- Stats are murkier for the dead. Japan only does autopsies in 10% of suspicious deaths. If someone dies of pneumonia in a hospital, the odds of an autopsy are low. Japan has not released data on the number of autopsies performed to verify whether coronavirus was the cause of death. There is occasionally a post-mortem analysis of tissue samples – but rarely. Possibly, coronavirus deaths are being hidden among pneumonia fatalities. -- The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare told Asia Times: “We only issue those numbers [in a comprehensive survey] every three years.” And the ministry’s latest nationwide hospital admissions data date back to November, before the pandemic struck." (https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/japans-winning-its-quiet-fight-against-covid-19/)

actual cause of death as covid-19.

Blah, blah blah

Doesn't really mean much since the TOTAL NUMBER DEATHS compare to previous years HAVE NOT SPIKED.

Without that it basically means that the number of fatality by the Corona virus is small OR the number of fatalities related to the flu is remarkably low this certain year.

Which makes more sense?

3 ( +8 / -5 )

This virus shows how people are stupid, the media shouts corona corona all day and they think they're going to die.

No, its 9 cases and they don't ask how , why or what that means.

Personally, I believe the the economy needs to start and it was an over reation because

hospitals aren't full, the recovery rate is high, the death rate is low, ro is going down, its not going away and I have never heard of anyone who is sick.

Not because today is nine cases or the media and message boards are telling me what to think.

-1 ( +3 / -4 )

@Triring

I agree.

So you may have to dumb down your explanation a little (maybe a lot) more

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Without that it basically means that the number of fatality by the Corona virus is small OR the number of fatalities related to the flu is remarkably low this certain year.

Interesting you think that there are only two possibilities, and can't come up with any more. It makes me question the rest of your post...

1 ( +3 / -2 )

@Vinke

 If someone dies of pneumonia in a hospital, the odds of an autopsy are low. Japan has not released data on the number of autopsies performed to verify whether coronavirus was the cause of death. There is occasionally a post-mortem analysis of tissue samples – but rarely. Possibly, coronavirus deaths are being hidden among pneumonia fatalities. 

I doubt it. Under the current crisis, patients suffering pneumonia must get special attention and PCR-tested before they die, or even before they go to ICU. What most healthcare staff fear is an in-house spike within hospital wards.

Outside hospital, someone may die of peumonia only to be found infected. But your story is also empirically denied, as there have been several cases reported after postmortem. They haven't tried to hid the cases.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

This whole incident has shown how much Japan has fallen from grace. Japan and China are the same when it comes to fudging numbers. They gain no international respect. Oh, and they're also the same when it comes to bullying other nations to try and get what they want.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

noriahojanen, the work is on the way to do the analysis of past cases. In fact, many cases already proved that the virus existed before November, 2019. In many countries too. Most recent one is from France, where cases are analyzed and found the virus caused the death can be traced back to November last year.

Science neve lies.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Pandemic is a part of natural selection process, it will never disappear. This is science. Through evolution, humanity only grows stronger, not weaker.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Cognac

 Japanese authorities have placed a high emphasis on identifying infection clusters and limiting their spread

Tell me how you trace infection when an infected person takes the train as it happened with the many clusters in the major cities.

It doesn't make sense allowing the virus spread wildly while precious time and resources is spent chasing

Shadows aka clusters

3 ( +3 / -0 )

@Triring

Blah, blah blah

Doesn't really mean much since the TOTAL NUMBER DEATHS compare to previous years HAVE NOT SPIKED.

Without that it basically means that the number of fatality by the Corona virus is small OR the number of fatalities related to the flu is remarkably low this certain year.

Which makes more sense?

More people are staying home = less traffic accidents, less suicides (I think there was an article and statistics published on this very recently), less work related accidents (e.g. building work is halted), less stress (= less cardiovascular related deaths). So I would actually guess there are less deaths that would occur "normally".

1 ( +2 / -1 )

@noriahojanen

I doubt it. Under the current crisis, patients suffering pneumonia must get special attention and PCR-tested before they die, or even before they go to ICU. What most healthcare staff fear is an in-house spike within hospital wards.

Outside hospital, someone may die of peumonia only to be found infected. But your story is also empirically denied, as there have been several cases reported after postmortem. They haven't tried to hid the cases.

You can doubt as much as you like. I, however, just quoted several articles stating the theory, and you can find many more, from fairly trustworthy sources, if you look. But, unless you work in hospitals or the MHLW and deal closely with these issues, you'll maybe never know the truth.

I just think it's dangerous to blindly trust the "facts" that are given to us currently, and go celebrating when there's no reason for it yet.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Triring

It can't be done in a democratic nation.

Basically life insurance companies would need to report the amount paid out to life insurance holder in which if there is a spike it will stick out like a sore thumb.

Mortuaries and, cremation facilities will have a large back log in which corpses will be piling up for the media to report.

A spike in demand for cemeteries lots will drive a sudden peak in the cost for a plot which will also be reported as a market trend.

Your post is full of assumptions and lacking in reality. You are assuming everybody that dies has a policy which is not true.

Presently all deaths that the person had pneumonia are treated as covid-19 and cremated within 24hrs to avoid infection.

For your info, corpse are not buried here but rather cremated and the ash handed to the families.

It is a bit difficult hiding corpse where burial is necessary, as we saw in New York, but then it wasn't as if they tried hiding it. They were transparent. It isn't a competition to select the country with the lowest casualty.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Autopsy's , unless a crime is involved, are only conducted with the permission of the family or next-of-kin and frequently refused.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

@Vinke

I'm partly involved in the field. At lest medical staff have no reason, no motive to hide "suspicious" deaths. In Wuhan, cover-ups are more likely. Risk of cover-ups to be revealed are most costly.

More significantly, putting all "suspicious" cases together and add to the entire corona-related death toll, Japan would still be low, far behind many other virus-hit countries.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

@Triring

the number of fatalities related to the flu is remarkably low this certain year.

Since you asked :

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/21/national/influenza-wave-drastically-wanes-japan-amid-spread-coronavirus/

According to a JT poster which did not put link, seems that the suicide number is too on decline

kokontozai May 14 09:34 am JST

The numbers of suicide for this year are as follows; (the last year ) 

January : 1,667 (1,684)

February : 1,434 (1,615)

March : 1,704 (1,856)

April : 1,455 (1,814)

and you can see the drop in the mortality tally in February in Tokyo.

There were 1,200 fewer deaths in February this year than in the same month in 2019, while they rose by 428 in March.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-12/tokyo-mortality-tally-shows-no-surge-in-deaths-during-pandemic

The early end of flu season and other effect of self restrain&co could be a hypothesis explanation for the 1200 less deaths.

That should be interesting to make more researches about what reduced the deaths number and why the effect did not extend past February.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

"Autopsy's , unless a crime is involved, are only conducted with the permission of the family or next-of-kin and frequently refused."

Zichi, I'm beginning to "dislike" you; far too much sense in your posts. All of them actually.

Please, stop!

The other one on my "list" is OssanAmerica with his constant tearing apart of "imbecilic" statements of the countless JT resident "experts".

Something wrong with you two geezers! Can 't you just let the "experts" flaunt their own ignorance for all and sundry.

"Does Everybody Get an Autopsy When They Die?"

"No, in fact, most people do not get an autopsy when they die. In cases of suspicious deaths, the medical examiner or coroner can order an autopsy to be performed, even without the consent of the next of kin. In all other cases (not of a medicolegal nature) the next-of-kin must give consent before an autopsy can be performed."

"https://www.medicinenet.com/does_everybody_get_an_autopsy_when_they_die/ask.htm"

0 ( +2 / -2 )

Open the airports for international flights.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

I’m so glad I’ve avoided these stories and comments here for the past two weeks. Unfortunately I just wasted twenty minutes catching up on the mood here.. It seems even when things are looking much brighter than two weeks ago, there are many who still hold on to excessive fear and conspiracy theories. What will it take for you to accept and appreciate that Japan has fared better than many countries around the world, especially other rich, first world countries? Deny the statistics all you want, as do people in many countries , but ask yourself how many people you actually know suffering from the infection. I’m guessing the answer is zero.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

I am glad that some people are numbers people, when you test per population is one of the lowest in the world, but those data are good, by some of you , which is your right to believe or not to believe,

but if we don't agree with your opinion, we are conspiracy theorist which is wrong on your part too.

Ok, let see who is right end of the year, also why don't you add in you don't need masks at all.

I glad to see this guy with idiot id doesn't get any clicks, we need to continue to do this,

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

Noria,

At lest medical staff have no reason, no motive to hide "suspicious" deaths.

Cmon, we are not that stupid to think that medical institutions would be ones forging the numbers. There are thousands of hospitals in the country and all of them will need to take part for any sizeable number to be realised. Why would hospitals indulge in forging death numbers?

There isn't any reason for them to do.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Rzadd

but ask yourself how many people you actually know suffering from the infection. I’m guessing the answer is zero

Sorry, the answer is not zero, there are posters who have related their experienced here having multiple symptoms of the virus, requesting a pcr test and being refused one. If you are ignorant doesn't mean everyone is.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

The bottom line is this, I’m all for re-opening in a safe and phased manner or areas where the infection rate is almost zero, but I think hotspots should be under quarantined under all circumstances and that testing should be mandatory within those areas, but to just re-open without a detailed plan, not enforcing social guidelines or zero heavy penalties and a mash dash to get kids back in school is not the safest or smartest thing the GOJ can and should do. Japan is not some miraculous country where the virus has a difficult time claiming many lives, I doubt it and would never believe it. If Japan followed the exact same measures as South Korea has been doing, I believe without a doubt the numbers of infected would be much, much higher. But for Abe and this administration the absolute main concern is all about continuing and saving the Olympics.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

@noriahojanen

More significantly, putting all "suspicious" cases together and add to the entire corona-related death toll, Japan would still be low, far behind many other virus-hit countries.

Yes, I actually think so too, that Japan's toll is probably much lower than many hard hit countries, but I also think that the stats presented to us now are obviously not the truth, and the toll is much higher. Painting the prettier picture gives false sense of security for people.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

It's not a government issue.

A country is supported by its people.

Europe and the U.S. only suffered a lot of damage because they have a lot of idiot citizens.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

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