Japan considers using U.S. spy drones for marine surveillance

Just don't make the mistake of loosing one to China or North Korea. They will have a media circus. The Iranians are still dancing a jig and bloviating because of that blunder.

Sure, at only US$104 million each, Japan should order a fleet of a couple hundred or so.

CherokeeMut: "Just don't make the mistake of loosing one to China or North Korea."

What, are they going to fire the drone from a sling-shot? It's LOSE, not 'loose'. I really don't understand that particular language problem. Anyway, if it's Japan operating the drone you can bet a few will be lost pretty quick.

And anyway, what are the drones going to do? The coast guard doesn't do anything but shout and try to ram the ships, are the drones just going to take pretty pictures? This is just another backroom deal for Japan to throw more money at the US to curry favour.

Smith, agreed it's a backroom deal to curry favour and use tax money to support the all-important US Military-Industrial-Complex.

Nothing like using a manufactured crisis to expand State surveillance.

The US is currently producing drones that are capable of dropping a large payload such as a torpedo. This would work nicely against some surveillance ships don't you think? But personally I believe this to be more saber rattling than anything else.

smithinjapan,

What, are they going to fire the drone from a sling-shot? It's LOSE, not 'loose'.

I think he meant to write, "loose one AT China or North Korea."

And anyway, what are the drones going to do? The coast guard doesn't do anything but shout and try to ram the ships, are the drones just going to take pretty pictures? This is just another backroom deal for Japan to throw more money at the US to curry favour.

Exactly, Mr Abe's nose is already brown, his tongue is black from bootlicking and his elbows are tired from polishing apples. And he's only been in office a few days!

If Japan does get a spy drone, just hope they don't give its secrets away. If I remember correctly, didn't some of the Aegis secrets go the way of China via some loose-lipped security people here in Japan? And didn't information on another top secret "toy" also land in the laps of the Chinese via Japan's security system?

CherokeeMut: "The US is currently producing drones that are capable of dropping a large payload such as a torpedo."

And again, they aren't going to drop a thing, and needless to say Japan won't be buying the newest drones but likely US decommissioned ones. The minute Japan drops a munitions load on a Chinese survey ships around the disputed islands is the day Japan will glow in the dark.

edojin: "If I remember correctly, didn't some of the Aegis secrets go the way of China via some loose-lipped security people here in Japan?"

You are correct. I've read at least several times over the past couple of years about business men or people in government leaving brief cases in full view in the car and having them stolen, and then of course you have morons who get seduced, robbed of money and secrets, and screwed over by South American women only to have them make their own wine industry with names just to rub it in. Japan deals with secrets like hot potatoes -- throw it to the next guy and let him drop it.

Abe is a hawk. Here is an idea for him.

Fly the unArmed drones first. Get China use to them. Slip in some armed drones to pattern, launch a few AGM-114 Hellfires, range 8km. Predator deone can hold up to 14 of them. They only cost $25,000 each. Sink one Chinese ship, deny it all, call their bluff.

From the US point of view, the more eyes in the sky flying around near China the better. The US is also working on a deal to sell four RQ-4 Global Hawks to South Korea for $1.2-billion.

From the Washington Post:

When President Obama called on the U.S. military to shift its focus to Asia earlier this year, Andrew Marshall, a 91-year-old futurist, had a vision of what to do. Marshall's small office in the Pentagon has spent the past two decades planning for a war against an angry, aggressive and heavily armed China. No one had any idea how the war would start. But the American response, laid out in a concept that one of Marshall's longtime proteges dubbed "Air-Sea Battle," was clear. Stealthy American bombers and submarines would knock out China's long-range surveillance radar and precision missile systems located deep inside the country. The initial "blinding campaign" would be followed by a larger air and naval assault.

...

"We want to put enough uncertainty in the minds of Chinese military planners that they would not want to take us on," said a senior Navy official overseeing the service's modernization efforts. "Air-Sea Battle is all about convincing the Chinese that we will win this competition."

...

"We started to get a parade of senior people, particularly from Japan, though also Taiwan and to a lesser extent China, saying, 'So, this is what Air-Sea Battle is,'" Krepinevich said this year at an event at another think tank. Soon, U.S. officials began to hear complaints. "The PLA went nuts," said a U.S. official who recently returned from Beijing.

Continuous ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) is a capability that all nations desire. As a comparison, just look up how many ISR satellites China currently has in orbit versus Japan. Regarding the Senkakus, it’s critical for Japan to have “eyes on” regarding what the Chinese are doing, or more importantly, planning on doing. A continuous Coast Guard boat presence is expensive – as are patrols by manned surveillance aircraft. RPA (Remotely Piloted Aircraft) provide significant ISR at much lower cost.

ISR is critical because while the islands are controlled by Japan, should the situation escalate, whoever lands troops on the islands first has the advantage – the other nation then has to either capitulate or implement some type of strategy to remove those troops. Given the domestic pressure on both nations not to back down, options to de-escalate the situation would be very difficult. As such, Japan has to have as much strategic warning as possible, so it can have water-borne assets in place to prevent a Chinese landing, or land Japanese Police or JGSDF troops first.

Given that perspective, Japan adding RPAs for additional ISR makes absolute sense.

Come on boys, China is under 7/24/365 scrutiny by US satellites. What more is needed except wasting $$$$ in useless tech toys?

World War III can or not?

Keith: Abe is a moron, not a hawk, with war criminals in the family history to boot.

"Slip in some armed drones to pattern, launch a few AGM-114 Hellfires, range 8km. Predator deone can hold up to 14 of them. They only cost $25,000 each. Sink one Chinese ship, deny it all, call their bluff."

Yeah, that'll work. Then when China nukes Japan they can say it never happened either.

Please build some more homes for the disaster victims before you go buying more military toys...

Frungy: "... all over one Chinese ship that undeniably was invading Japanese territory? I seriously think not."

You do realize my point was sarcastic, don't you? If Japan struck a Chinese ship with a drone, there would be no denying they did what they did, same as, obviously Chine nuking Japan would be obvious.

"The whole world would be an irradiated ball of fire."

And to imagine it's all because of one old 80-year old former Tokyo governor. Amazing, isn't it? Point was that any of these two nations are loony-bin enough to make a move like Keith suggested and it's over; as you said, ball of fire. Well, okay... if China did it first it would take Japan a lot of time to form panels to discuss thinking about the possibility of forming a group to debate a joint study on taking a reaction, but China would not wait one minute.

smithinjapanJan. 02, 2013 - 03:55PM JST "CherokeeMut: "Just don't make the mistake of loosing one to China or North Korea." What, are they going to fire the drone from a sling-shot? It's LOSE, not 'loose'. I really don't understand that particular >language problem.

"For the most part, it is bad form to correct people's spelling in online forums and chats. Part of Internet Etiquette, or 'Netiquette', is to generally ignore people's spelling and typos."

http://netforbeginners.about.com/b/2008/03/01/should-i-correct-other-web-users-on-their-spelling.htm

smithinjapanJan. 02, 2013 - 11:39PM JST

Frungy: "... all over one Chinese ship that undeniably was invading Japanese territory? I seriously think not." You do realize my point was sarcastic, don't you? If Japan struck a Chinese ship with a drone, there would be no denying they did what they did, same as, obviously Chine nuking Japan would be obvious.

Actually they could give any number of excuses, the same type of excuses the U.S. has used for years, my bet would be on:

Deny everything - it never happened, there's no proof, the Chinese are lying - Given the Chinese tendency to cry wolf and make up stuff there's a good chance Japan would be believed.

And to imagine it's all because of one old 80-year old former Tokyo governor. Amazing, isn't it? Point was that any of these two nations are loony-bin enough to make a move like Keith suggested and it's over; as you said, ball of fire. Well, okay... if China did it first it would take Japan a lot of time to form panels to discuss thinking about the possibility of forming a group to debate a joint study on taking a reaction, but China would not wait one minute.

Actually this is going to happen sooner or later. The Chinese ships have been engaging in quite risky manoevers and sooner or later there's going to be a crash. It's not a question of "if", it's a question of "when".

What most people can't quite grasp about the Chinese government is that it isn't centralised. Instead you the communist party (the political wing), the state council (administration), and the army (military), answering to a committee of 360-or-so senior bureacrats which in theory answers to the President, but in actuality they all pretty much do their own thing and often given contradictory instructions... all of which must be obeyed or you're dragged out and shot as a traitor. China is HUGE, three times bigger than the U.S. in terms of land mass, and more than four times the population.... and with a very young government that has incredibly high turnover and is currently engaged in an internal power struggle (as we can see from the recent changes in the central council).

Frankly no-one has a clue what China is capable of at the moment, and how they'll react to what's going on. What we can be sure of is that all of the senior bureaucrats are actually heavily invested in China's industry and that they personally stand to lose a LOT of money if they disrupt the Chinese economy. Given the size of Japan's economy it is certain that any disruption to the Japanese economy would result in damage to the Chinese economy, therefore they'll happily play chicken, but they're never going to nuke Japan, it would bankrupt them.

technosphereJan. 02, 2013 - 10:40PM JST

Russian nukes (which haven't been decomissioned yet... and some of which are lost!). Lost, you said? Interesting!

More than 100 incidents of nuclear smuggling, at least 18 of which involved weapons-grade materials... and that's just what they're admitting to the public. The Russian government is also involved in a very bitter disagreement with several ex-USSR countries over the return of nuclear weapons. The problem is simple, Russia doesn't want to part with the access codes, and the countries don't want to give up a potential nuclear advantage with a hostile neighbour like Russia. The result? A whole lot of nuclear bunkers sitting undefended in ex-USSR countries, with no way of checking what's inside or not. Very worrying, not the least because of the dead man switch systems in some of the bunkers that are not being maintained.

Using US spy drones are fine. Why not add some MINES on Japans territorial sea area. Kabooommmm !!! hehehehehe

Drones now...Nuclear ICBM's next... Then China will stop, messing with Japan's Island's, and have a bit more respect...

Back on topic please.

T-Mack-san,

Drones now...Nuclear ICBM's next... Then China will . . .

. . . boost their weaponry, deploy nukes, their own "made in China" F-22s, Ospreys and fleets of aircraft carriers.

Article 9 in the Japanese constitution will change to "combat the Chinese threat."

Japan will boost their weaponry.

Everything will be on a hair trigger.

Over a space of years, spies will be caught, shocking battle plans discovered, shots will be exchanged, there will be further build ups of weaponry.

Until . . .

Japan and China declare bankruptcy.

Maniacal laughter is heard from a bunker deep beneath the Pentagon and the IMF marches in to "save the day."

@BertieWooster-san, China will want respect too! However, Japan want's to defend themselve's, China is not going to start a war...the USA will step on China like an Iraqi camel spider, if the US wants to take down a country for thinking they have WMD's, what will they do if China deploy's them?... They will take them out like Osama bin Laden-san....

No, no, no! Use the Ospreys. Japan must have unlimited financial resources now to buy all these toys.

Frungy: "Actually they could give any number of excuses, the same type of excuses the U.S. has used for years, my bet would be on: 1. Deny everything - it never happened, there's no proof, the Chinese are lying - Given the Chinese tendency to cry wolf and make up stuff there's a good chance Japan would be believed."

Not from a drone firing they wouldn't. Who else's drone would it be? Sneak attack from a sub, maybe... but then we're talking about Japan, where the obvious is obvious and a fake apology smooths everything over. That wouldn't work in a confrontation with another nation.

"Frankly no-one has a clue what China is capable of at the moment, and how they'll react to what's going on."

So the answer is to fire on their ships and pretend you didn't do it and hope the world buys it??

"George W." Smith? Provocation is not the answer. In case nobody learned anything from WWII, the latest is that Japan has no natural resources and has to rely on the USA for protection.

noriyosan: ""George W." Smith? Provocation is not the answer."

Sigh.... that was my exact point when remarking on Keith's answer to just bomb Chinese ships! Provocation is not the answer from ANY side.