Japan dismisses speculation of China link to SDF chopper accident

Please don't blame other country for own unpreparedness.

If the Japanese military's ground operators and search and rescue units are struggling in their own peaceful waters near the coast a week after one of their aircraft went down, you have to wonder how they'd fare in a hostile environment during combat. "Reefs"? Gimme a break.

They are putting out YouTube videos with data of the number of SDF soldiers married to Chinese wives and are suggesting they’re spies. The videos are in Japanese with a dark background and an ominous voice narrating this conclusion by some gray hair conspiracy theorist.

So, if not the Chinese, then equipment failure?

The Japanese government would never admit it if in fact it was true. The implications would be potentially dangerous.

quercetumToday  07:18 am JST

They are putting out YouTube videos with data of the number of SDF soldiers married to Chinese wives and are suggesting they’re spies.

What's wrong that? There have been espionage cases linked to Chinese GFs/wives of JSDFmembers in the past.

And it's hardly just Japan that's targeted.

"U.S. Man Sentenced to Prison After Spying for Chinese Girlfriend -He was a 59-year-old retired Army officer working as a civilian contract employee for the U.S. Pacific Command in Hawaii."

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-s-man-sentenced-prison-after-spying-chinese-girlfriend-n205776

If the Japanese military's ground operators and search and rescue units are struggling in their own peaceful waters near the coast a week after one of their aircraft went down, you have to wonder how they'd fare in a hostile environment during combat. "Reefs"? Gimme a break.

Tell me please how many open water searches have you been involved in? I have had to do a couple and even finding a small ship that is trying to be found so you can hoist a sick crewman off is sometimes hard to do. Small ship in a vast ocean. If all you are looking for is a swimmer, a body or debris, good luck. Every whitecap looks like it could be something from the crash. The wreck is under water. Where do you start looking and with what? Ships with the necessary ROVs are not everywhere all at once. They have to be brought in from somewhere else.

The chopper went missing just minutes after takeoff and despite extensive search efforts they still haven’t found any of the missing crew. It’s tempting to think some kind of coverup is going on. Here comes a conspiracy theory that the helicopter was actually shot down by the Chinese but, fearing this might escalate into military confrontation with China, the Japanese and the U.S. governments have decided it was an accident.

So, if not the Chinese, then equipment failure?

Probably not. Based on historical data 90% of aircraft mishaps are caused by pilot error. Equipment failure is rare and even when that is the proximate cause of the mishap the underlying cause is human error on the part of the manufacturer, a repair depot or some flight line maintenance that was done wrong, compounded by an inadequate preflight inspection and possibly failure to follow the correct emergency procedure for the system failure.

The helicopter that went missing is said to have flown at a minimum allowable altitude with ten high ranking officers aboard for the first-hand observation of the contours of the Miyako and adjacent islands.

The weather was not so bad that day, but the helicopter must have flown into a sudden air turbulence at a low altitude, giving the pilot no time to correct the situation.

 Local fishermen are said to fear the sudden change of weather at this time of the year.

You reap what you sow. Countless scaremongering articles now leading to paranoia and crazy conspiracy theories conjured up from society's dregs.

Having said that, there must be some sort of cover-up going on. JSDF search and rescue can't be this bad, can it?

I’m kinda surprised that theres no tracking availiable for this expensive craft. You’d think the military would at least know where it was, even if it was inaccessible.

I’m kinda surprised that theres no tracking availiable for this expensive craft. You’d think the military would at least know where it was, even if it was inaccessible

The helicopter would have an altitude encoding transponder that replies to the interrogation of an air traffic control radar with its transponder code, assigned to it by the controlling agency before the helo taxis for take off and the pressure altitude shown on the aircraft's altimeter. The radar records direction and range. The transponder is necessary to tell the controlling agency how high the helo is and to identify it from other traffic. However for all this to work the helicopter has to be in radar contact. If, as Voicesinmyheadinokinawa states, the helo was flying low to inspect the terrain it might not have been line of sight to an air traffic control radar.

A helo will probably have an Emergency Locator Transmitter, ELT, that is supposed to activate automatically upon impact. If it crashes on land satellites can pick up the signal and locate the wreckage, but if the helicopter is under water that is not possible. An ROV would have to go under water to locate the wreck.

Having said that, there must be some sort of cover-up going on. JSDF search and rescue can't be this bad, can it?

Try conducting an over water search for a crash in real life and tell us if you still think that way. I have had the opportunity to have to do a couple. It's a big ocean and a wreck is real small. Throw in some chop and everything looks like to could be a survivor, a body or a piece of wreckage.

thepersoniamnowToday  08:18 am JST

I’m kinda surprised that theres no tracking availiable for this expensive craft.

Numerous articles have stated that there were transponders onboard that are designed to deploy upon impact but they failed to operate. More food for the "sabotage" theory...

The picture above shows the weather and the sea are calm, but on the day of the accident the sea must have been rougher and choppier with strong northerly winds blowing towards the cliffs.

I'm sure the US knows what happened. The crash happened near Okinawa, which US has a huge military presence there. Japan isn't paying US army for no reason, but the fact that US army has no comments regarding this is very suspicious. And the fact they dismissed it rather quickly? What about the US?

Surely fing the chopper should’nt be difficult! They would tracking beacons on them. The lost crew is a different story. It is an act of war from China if they did do anything stupid but I doubt even they would be that silly!

Not the worst solution, giving out the facts as speculation and then officially deny it for preventing from political disaster in bilateral relationships. I like their chess playing this time.

Desert Tortoise seems to know well about search and rescue and I trust his comments.

But the puzzling aspect is this was a military vehicle flying in a closely monitored (one would assume) military zone only minutes after takeoff, loaded with high level military officials.

If what has been stated is true - then it appears the locating tech is woefully inadequate.

This not an MH 370 incident.

There are approximately 1 million possible reasons for this tragedy occurring. Nothing can be ruled out at this very early stage - including interference and/or espionage from a third party.

They are putting out YouTube videos with data of the number of SDF soldiers married to Chinese wives and are suggesting they’re spies. The videos are in Japanese with a dark background and an ominous voice narrating this conclusion by some gray hair conspiracy theorist.

This stuff is not helpful. There are hundreds of thousands if not millions of Japanese citizens married to foreigners in Japan. It is incredibly hard to attract people to join the JSDF even without stupidity on social media like this.

I'm sure the US knows what happened. The crash happened near Okinawa, 

Why do you assume that? Miyako is 300 kilometers from Okinawa. A radar on Okinawa would not likely track something operating close to sea level at that great of a distance due to the curvature of the Earth. In any event US forces are not interested in the comings and goings of friendly host nation aircraft.

The jury is still out, so this is not a time for conspiracy theories or to point fingers. We should certainly hope that no country in its right mind would have intentionally caused such a tragic accident (incident?) which resulted in death.

But the puzzling aspect is this was a military vehicle flying in a closely monitored (one would assume) military zone only minutes after takeoff, loaded with high level military officials.

Miyako has only recently been developed as a military base. The base is small and has a single helicopter landing spot. Neither civil airfield there have any military facilities. The islands are rugged with cliffs on some shorelines. It is entirely reasonable to believe the helicopter was operating below the radar horizon below the elevation of the airports and their air traffic control radars when it crashed and thus its exact location is not known.

attacked the radio waves of the helicopter,

What is that little bit of nonsense supposed to mean?

A couple of sensible comments here but most are just ill-informed, people whose knowledge is all gained from watching "Mayday" on NatGeo.

There are hundreds of thousands if not millions of Japanese citizens married to foreigners in Japan.

"millions" might be stretching it a little.

WAY Too sensitive matter for media, no matter actual helicopter actual facts and circumstances.

Same goes for entire emerging global proxy war rapidly spreading into Mid-East, Far-East, including scariest of all prospects, direct participation of non-state terrorist organizations, who now call themselves "mercenaries" to be politically correct, with close ties to Iran and Russia especially...who can potentially attack ANYWHERE, including cyber and other-non kinetic/WMD means...

RIP to these servicemen and thank for your service!

So, if not the Chinese, then equipment failure?

As there are only Japanese and a vast US military in that region, it probably was either Japanese error, malfunction, or shot down accidentally by US military. If the US did it, it would explain the relative silence and denials.

Note a couple of days later two US Air Force F-16 fighter jets declared an emergency and landed at Miyako Shimojishima airfield.

I don't need to wait till the evidence is in. I will make up my own theory as to what happened.

Kill all the internet arm chair Generals

Ten men are missing and they have loved ones waiting. I live on Miyako and have been here for some years. If it was an act of sabotage, then no-where on earth is safe because you can SEE the area where the surfers and at least one other witness saw the presumed crash sight. They didn't see the craft go down, but saw smoke later. The place is clearly visible from Irabu. I walk every morning on the shore of Miyako, and I can see the search ships, even small ones, clearly with my middle-aged eyes, even from Miyako. If any enemy has some invisible way to get that close, we are all in trouble. The Chinese ships were no-where near the shores of these islands when spotted days before. If it was a submarine, given the reefs, it must be one piloted by sea gods.

The sea was rough that day, already wave warnings had been issued and the chop was bad, over 2.5m. The general wind was from the south and still just a stiff breeze. There were no thunder clouds or squalls on the radar, and hadn't been for at least two hours. I know because I'd been constantly checking the weather to see if I could take a long walk with my dog and not get zapped by lightning. There had been a possibility for thunderstorms all day, but none appeared. There were none that night either.

BUT a severe weather front was to the north and coming south. Around 10:30am on Friday it hit. Within minutes the wind changed to a strong northerly, with severe wind warnings. No thunder, but driving heavy rain for an hour or so, then just regular rain and strong wind with gusts. So on Thursday afternoon, given the sea and cliffs, a downburst of air might have occurred.

As for the search, have you ever been in the ocean around here??? One minute you'll be over reefs that are exposed at low tide, and the next you'll be over a drop-off. The strait between Irabu and Miyako is scary. Swimmers are often drowned at Sunayama Beach that faces Irabu because of the flow. Two years ago a local reef-diver fisherman was lost at another location and he was never found despite his companions searching immediately. About 4 years ago a woman on a S.A.P. floated off, never to be found. Miyako might look beautiful but her ocean is just that - it is an ocean and not a swimming pool.

Before you continue speculating, imagine if one of your family member's was missing ..... Rant over.

Okinawa AToday  11:39 am JST

If any enemy has some invisible way to get that close, we are all in trouble"

With all due respect there are many military techniques which are invisible or very difficult to see or track even with advanced tech. Small drones, electromagnetic pulses, stealth fights, radio jammers, chemicals, etcetc. Not saying that any of that happened here, but your rant seems to claim that none of this tech exists.

@Okinawa A Thanks for the local knowledge but who is being disrespectful? Rant over.

Desert tortoise - thanks for your reply. I understand all your reasoning.

Just my original post mentioned that the tech involved appears not up to it. This is one of the most sensitive "hot spots" in the world atm. Military Craft from a number of nations operating daily, often in not so friendly manner.

So a completely lay person like me just assumes that with the hyper-technology that abounds these days, a close by tragedy would not be so puzzling almost a week later. Seems like under-teched.

And Okinawa A - thanks for that informative post.

So locals know the spot where they saw smoke rising. I can only assume the official investigations are concentrating on that area. A witnessing is pretty rare in such cases.

And if the weather was as you stated - with warnings, rough seas, thunderstorms etc who made the call for the flight and why? Are such helicopters more than normally susceptible in challenging weather conditions?

Still all a mystery for a number of reasons.

Esp sad for the loss of lives and their families.

Lepyon - not at all, I know such technology exists, but if it was used this time, then we are certainly in trouble. First, you'd have to know about the flight, the timing, and the flight path. If it was done from the ocean, then the captain of that vessel was god-like, given the condition of the sea and the location. Drone? - perhaps but you'd have to be on the cliffs waiting - if you haven't been there, you don't know what a lonely a place it is. If it had been a day with regular conditions and if dive boats had been out (they were not, that afternoon), then I would say it was a heavy drone taking aerial shots, operated from a boat, that hit the helicopter. We have three size drones at my house, so I know what each size can do. I also know how often people are using even the smallest ones around here. Big ones need permission (if you follow the law). A small one could have flown that day, with the wind conditions but the operator would have had to be on land, or a surfer. If it was another aircraft/specialist drone, as I said, we are then in trouble because it means it was totally undetected by the radar of two airports (Shimoji and Miyako) as well as by the air-force base here. Satellite? Maybe. Pulse or other something? Maybe. But in that case we are still in trouble because it could specifically target that helicopter undetected. So yes, I know such things exist but if they were used, as I said, we are in trouble everywhere then. At least one fisherman was on HAM radio and heard a strange sound, but all radios were operating normally. Shimoji and Miyako work on different frequencies and neither reported anything. (Cover-up? maybe but around 4pm there are a handful of commercial flights every single day from Miyako, including a Bombardier with twin propellers that flies reasonably low to Ishigaki.) I also know what large birds (or large enough ones) fly near here this season and have no idea if an osprey (as in sea-eagle type bird, not aircraft) can cause an accident with a helicopter, but given the location, an osprey or cormorant is just as plausible as technology.

If a rotor blade had failed and snapped/broken off, the craft would have very rapidly lost any ability to stay aloft. Bubbles on the surface and black smoke might be the only (temporary) evidence of such an event.

browny1

The wind was okay at that time, just the sea was rough because of the weather front to the far north. (It didn't hit until 10:30am the next day.)

From 5:45am when I looked first, there was a 'possible thunderstorm' warning, but actually, looking on the weather radar, no thunderclouds developed all day. No lightning either. I was wondering about going out with my dog for our third walk of the day, so had been checking the radar, with the 'lightning' function turned on. I have used the weather radar for years and it is 99% correct in my experience and have only ever been rained on once because I miscalculated by 5 minutes and then got soaked in a squall. Windy.com was also very correct about the weather, right down to within 30 minutes of when the front would hit on Friday.

So I guess the call to fly that day was reasonable, in a normal situation. I was out walking at that time and there was no bad weather at all. But of course, that is not to say there was no turbulence over the sea, off the north cliffs of Irabu. I was in the middle-ish part of Miyako, about 1km from the shore.

But the rough sea of about 2.5m waves was why no dive boats were out on Thursday afternoon. Friday the seas had 3 to 4m waves, which is why small boats couldn't join the search.

You reap what you sow. Countless scaremongering articles now leading to paranoia and crazy conspiracy theories conjured up from society's dregs.

When one types "conspiracy theories', what's implied is there's known accepted truth. Yet we all live in a world of probabilities in the absence of facts and truth, another well-known example being the origins of a certain virus!

This being the case, there's clearly no conspiracy, rather unknowns. Everyone appears responsible in this view in this VERY dangerous global environment we all live, which naturally makes violent calculated behavior more likely all else being equal.

Dregs? They're the idiots insulting others while being both ignorant and trying to spin their preferred narrative and agenda in the absence of known truth.

you can SEE the area where the surfers and at least one other witness saw the presumed crash sight

Ok, so the crash was close enough that surfers could witness it. I assume the 10 crew members did not die on impact, and were reasonably well trained. The water was relatively cold up here on April 6th, but down in Miyako, it would be comfortable enough. What time did it crash? If they had a meal not long before takeoff, they should have enough sustenance for say a 4 hour swim with no problems. If the crash was visible by surfers, it could not be more than 1 or 2 hours swim away. And, not a single person made it back?

How many military helicopters in say last 50 yrs. globally, while technically flying a non-war zone have simply disappeared without ANY distress communications?

Probably none....so this is certainly not your garden variety 'accident', that's clear as day.

Given above, probability of 'bad' behavior's clearly enhanced, and let's not forget all the geo-political tension taking place in this area at this time...

One must understand US and its allies are BUSY arming and training Taiwan RIGHT NOW.

Conspiracy? No, simply facts enhancing probabilities. After all the Ukraine war is eerily similar, massive military buildup and training by NATO in run-up to the invasion.

Go ahead and name call, contact JT for post removal, that's the playbook, right?

So almost no helicopter parts discovered, no release of flight passenger LOG, clock's ticking, big surprise rushed diplomatic meetings after years of not doing etc.

Clearly facts are moving away from standard accident, regarding probabilities but STILL NO CERTAINTY just shifting probabilities from bad to WORSE.

RIP and thank you for your service!

Awa no GaijinToday  10:15 am JST

Nope !

Military's do infact have weapons that apparently you aren't aware of.

Even Japan did have experimental weapons to affect radio waves during WWII .

You can look it up yourself if you actually care to get educated

Where do I start? Let's start with "Even Japan did have experimental weapons to affect radio waves during WWII ." This is totally meaningless, just what exactly are you talking about? What should I look up? Please describe these experimental weapons. Which radio waves are being affected? Do tell then I'll have something to look up. Bear in mind that I probably know much more about radio than you having held amateur radio licences in four countries since 1977 and have built a considerable amount of radio equipment over the years.

You wrote "Military's do infact" and are suggesting that I get educated! People who live in glass houses etc.

Once again, when facts are few, experts are many.

Aircraft where the wings fly faster than the fuselage are inherently dangerous and until all the facts about the crash are known nobody should be drawing any conclusions or making idiotic conspiracy theories.

nobody should be drawing any conclusions or making idiotic conspiracy theories.

No conspiracy theory possible because there's no known truth, so remains a question of probabilities until factual evidence is released.

Don't hold your breath, seems less likely we'll be learning more as time passes, making an accident scenario less likely.

Passengers, KEY people or just young servicemen? As likely motivation for any bad actor, would be serious military personnel, either Taiwanese, Japanese or both.

Other major non-accident scenario would be if it were say conducting electronic jamming, tracking another vessel, like a submarine, etc.

Regardless, RIP and thank you for your service!

Japan dismisses speculation of China link to SDF chopper accident

Dismiss is not an appropriate word to nuance what the spokesman said. He meant, not verified, or don't know

Dismiss is not an appropriate word to nuance what the spokesman said. He meant, not verified, or don't know

You've just TOUCHED on amazing bias here, WELL done!

Japan dismisses speculation of China link to SDF chopper accident

Dismiss is not an appropriate word to nuance what the spokesman said. He meant, not verified, or don't know

The Japanese I've talked to have told me that they think it is either the US or China. They keep saying the pilot is well trained pilot and it couldn't have been human error.

The Japanese I've talked to have told me that they think it is either the US or China. They keep saying the pilot is well trained pilot and it couldn't have been human error.

Human error ALWAYS possible but nice weather, experienced, vanish without a peep, WEIRD

Even weirder is suspecting US - seems VERY VERY VERY UNLIKELY/Essentially IMPOSSIBLE, though an accident/friendly fire always possible!

Possible they were tracking new likely Chinese military capabilities preferring to remain secret...lots of new deadly drones these days for example.

I'll say it again, MAJOR powers OUTSOURCE, proxies, China enabling NK's my guess, but maybe they've assembled special 'domestic mercenary unit', this was a training trial balloon of sorts, it's all coming, how pleasant!

RIP and thank you for your service!

This is a perfect example of the kind of defective thinking that poisons today’s culture. The conspiracy true-believers have successfully created an unassailable reality.

Unassailable? We live in a world of probabilities, hardly defective thinking, though many would view your dogmatism as HIGHLY defective!

As I wrote above, THERE CAN BE NO CONSPIRACY because there\s no KNOWN set of facts to establish certainty, it's UNKNOWN.

Harry It is a possibility,

https://www.voanews.com/a/russian-mystry-weapon-claim-seen-as-sign-of-military-weakness/3834792.html

A Russian fighter buzzed an American Destroyer and all the electronics went out on the US destroyer, my understanding is that many on the ship got out of the Navy after that incident. So anything is possible, except perhaps little green men attacking the helo. Also, I heard reports of US fighter jets having to return to base with some problems at about the same time. Never discount anything, and don't depend upon the Government to ever tell you the truth. The news on the American Destroyer was all over the news, I don't believe Mayday or NatGeo carried that news.

attacked the radio waves of the helicopter,

What is that little bit of nonsense supposed to mean?

A couple of sensible comments here but most are just ill-informed, people whose knowledge is all gained from watching "Mayday" on NatGeo.

How many military helicopters in say last 50 yrs. globally, while technically flying a non-war zone have simply disappeared without ANY distress communications?

Probably none....so this is certainly not your garden variety 'accident', that's clear as day.

It happens from time to time with US military aircraft.

A Russian fighter buzzed an American Destroyer and all the electronics went out on the US destroyer, my understanding is that many on the ship got out of the Navy after that incident.

Where do these stories come from? Risible bs. There are videos of US warships being buzzed by Russian aircraft and there are no effects of any kind to the ship. What most lay people do not realize is that because there are so many very high powered antennas located very closely together on a combat ship they are of necessity very well protected from emp or other forms of electronic attack. The SPY-1 radars are megawatt class radars. There are even warnings on the bridge rails not to lean over the rail while the radar is energized or it will fry you. But despite the power and having the rear facing radars radiating directly against parts of the superstructure nothing bad happens on board.

It happens from time to time with US military aircraft.

Ok helicopter guy, provide us ONE incidence of any, not just US military helicopters of which your clearly not a fan, simply vanishing in non-war zone with no distress call.

Ok helicopter guy, provide us ONE incidence of any, not just US military helicopters of which your clearly not a fan, simply vanishing in non-war zone with no distress call.

The US military has lost dozens of large multi crew aircraft over the years from old C-54s to a P-3 off the California coast (how do you lose a big P-3 on a local training flight?) a fully loaded Lockheed Super Constellation on its way to SE Asia, poof, disappeared with no emergency call, and no trace of the aircraft afterwards. A bit further back a CIA operated A-12 took off from Kadena AB for a post maintenance check flight and disappeared. No wreckage, no nothing. Just gone. These sorts of things have become less common for military aircraft recently but there continues to be a steady drumbeat of civil aircraft disappearing. These are generally smaller regional flights that don't make headlines but that is small consolation for the families who's loved ones disappeared with the lost aircraft.

Sister JaneApr. 12  08:24 pm JST

Harry It is a possibility,

https://www.voanews.com/a/russian-mystry-weapon-claim-seen-as-sign-of-military-weakness/3834792.html

A Russian fighter buzzed an American Destroyer and all the electronics went out on the US destroyer, my understanding is that many on the ship got out of the Navy after that incident. So anything is possible, except perhaps little green men attacking the helo. Also, I heard reports of US fighter jets having to return to base with some problems at about the same time. Never discount anything, and don't depend upon the Government to ever tell you the truth. The news on the American Destroyer was all over the news, I don't believe Mayday or NatGeo carried that news.

You may choose to believe this nonsense without citing any evidence or technical information but smarter people with some technical knowledge do not.