national

Health ministry says 400,000 could die in Japan without virus containment measures

124 Comments

The requested article has expired, and is no longer available. Any related articles, and user comments are shown below.

© 2020 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.

©2020 GPlusMedia Inc.

124 Comments
Login to comment

Does that figure include the deaths from the Diamond Princess?

26 ( +31 / -5 )

Would be impossible. Japan will never even test 400,000 people let alone reporting that number.

In reality though, the number could be a lot worse. Not only do normal folks are refused access to testing, even access to emergency treatment is restricted.

https://www.fnn.jp/articles/-/32320

18 ( +29 / -11 )

sound like they're trying to do a Trump

state the worse case scenario and take credit for anything that falls below that total even though they haven't declared a national lockdown

17 ( +35 / -18 )

Better get those face masks in the mail pronto.

16 ( +25 / -9 )

Trying to scare the nuto out of people to keep them inside. Cheap and possibly affective. Fingers crossed.

16 ( +17 / -1 )

Got to agree with wtfjapan (this time)

I don't think it will be 400.000, but every single one counts and is sad!

But so far the Japanese government has done little to nothing to enforce a "stay at home".

Wish they came up with better ideas, the sooner the better.

15 ( +23 / -8 )

3Rensho,

there is one problem, which is the "...nasai" ( 'Ie ni inasai')

They can't order people to stay at home, only (more or less) politely ask.

13 ( +13 / -0 )

My answer to the sign: "Are you at home? Where's the law saying I must? Why weren't you here with that sign in the morning, during the commute to work?"

13 ( +22 / -9 )

My company is doing testing for the covid virus. Last month, the infection rate was about 1 out of every 10 people (infected)....now its up to 1 out of every 4 people testing positive, with most being asymptomatic. This is no joke. The death rate is low, but it was low in Europe and the States in the begining, and now look where they are. The Jgov needs to take better measures NOW, while the numbers are still manageable

12 ( +13 / -1 )

tamanegi,

That was so funny.

11 ( +12 / -1 )

There is an ulterior motive in making doomsday statements like this. Since the government can't order people into a lockdown, it's got to scare them.

Telling the public, the "worst" case, and hammering it home, HOPEFULLY will stop these idiots from hitting the streets after work!

11 ( +11 / -0 )

@tamanegi "Does that figure include the deaths from the Diamond Princess?"

BEST COMMENT OF THE WEEK! LOL

11 ( +13 / -2 )

YellowHat - Given that the total number of deaths is currently not even a third of 400,000, and the death rates in countries more severely affected are slowly decreasing, the aforementioned figure is nothing more than fantasty plucked from thin air.

I don't think it's such a phantasmagorical figure given the current rate of new cases every day and the reluctancy of the Japanese government to shut down Japan Inc. Make a six month calculation under the current rate of infection and a progressive increase based on that rate you'll get very close to the 400,000. Of course, it is an exaggeration. However, if Japanese people don't start staying home 'every day' there will be no end to the ever increasing daily rate of new cases. Japan is way too densely populated to take 'passive' action against this virus.

10 ( +13 / -3 )

Placard written in English (of course!) complete with Furigana. Not translatable to Nihongo? 'Ie ni inasai' isn't polite enough?

9 ( +18 / -9 )

well two masks from Abe they going to "discuss" next week will not help for sure...

9 ( +12 / -3 )

"Japan's death toll from the novel coronavirus could reach 400,000"

How, when they've not even tested a fraction of that? And that's not taking into account that the geniuses here think that the virus will cooperate with a crowd of people going to work, or to hanami, and skip it in favor of a crowd at a pub.

9 ( +19 / -10 )

Its important to note what this study does and does not say. It does NOT say that 400,000 people in Japan will die. It DOES say that 400,000 would die only if no containment measures were taken.

This is spot on. Doing nothing is not a pretty option. The better we do with social distancing the better the final outcome will be.

9 ( +9 / -0 )

Olympics before containment

Policy before the Olympics were delayed.

Tokyo 2020 quickly became CORONA 2020

9 ( +10 / -1 )

Abe sitting on his butt doing nothing for 3 months what do you expect would happen?

8 ( +11 / -3 )

I do not understand the logic of some commenters.

If no active and strict social distancing the numbers will be high.

Then strict social distancing is put into place and the numbers stay low.

Their conclusion: "This was fear mongering, look at the low numbers!"

8 ( +8 / -0 )

Pouring gasoline on the flames of fear.

If the government and media arent careful a lot of people are going to have serious mental problems.

The hikikomi population is going to unfortunately increase.

My parents in New Zealand were told 80,000 might die. As of today 10 have.

7 ( +14 / -7 )

Its important to note what this study does and does not say. It does NOT say that 400,000 people in Japan will die. It DOES say that 400,000 would die only if no containment measures were taken.

But since containment measures are in fact being taken, the actual number of deaths is likely to be way way lower than 400,000.

7 ( +10 / -3 )

rainyday:

Better get those face masks in the mail pronto.

Yeah, I am still waiting for my Abe mask. And in the drugstore, I still don´t see any masks. And I am not going to compete with the professional hoarders. So what am I supposed to do? Coffee filter + rubber band?

7 ( +8 / -1 )

Notice how the sign is written in English and katakana, not in Kanji... is this aimed only at the gaijin?, maybe the Yamato don't get sick and dont have to stay home?

7 ( +8 / -1 )

My son’s elementary school is closed currently. I cycled past the school on one of my rare visits to the supermarket and as I cycled past the school ground I could see literally hundreds of kids playing together at close quarters oblivious to any kind of social distancing. After the shock died down I was quite angry. It also made me feel sorry for my kids as I haven’t let them out of the house. Only on to the balcony to get some sunshine. I understand that kids get bored stuck inside but the school might as well be open if nobody is going to take this seriously.

7 ( +7 / -0 )

I do not understand the logic of some commenters.

If no active and strict social distancing the numbers will be high.

Then strict social distancing is put into place and the numbers stay low.

Their conclusion: "This was fear mongering, look at the low numbers!"

What's more, there's no reason for the government to fear monger as it hurts them economically. The government, as with many countries, did the opposite.

7 ( +7 / -0 )

Indeed, without a comprehensive policy, system of test, trace/track, and isolate, with an transparent nod to the sensitivity of patient and family. Then the entire study is at best, a wild guess.

The projections are based on research from Hokkaido University professor Hiroshi Nishiura, one of the infectious disease experts guiding the government's response to the outbreak.

Are the models published, with the research evidence?......

The health ministry could not immediately confirm the report……

May I suggest a phone call or email, would be appropriate.   

400,000 is a round estimate.

6 ( +8 / -2 )

My question is if I had coronavirus and now have recovered and have antibodies is there any reason I should stay home?

6 ( +8 / -2 )

Reckless

My question is if I had coronavirus and now have recovered and have antibodies is there any reason I should stay home?

I believe it takes some time after the symptoms have receded before the body completely sheds the virus. So, you would still be contagious, if you went out and about too soon after recovery. How much time is needed doesn't seem to have been agreed upon. But, you can do some research, and come up with a reasonable number, I would imagine.

6 ( +7 / -1 )

Good grief! That has got to be the most hare brained ideas of a sign I've ever seen: ステイ ホーム in katakana. What on earth were they thinking? Oh...that's right, they weren't!

6 ( +8 / -2 )

We don't expect 400,000 or so people to die (because of the virus).," said Hiroshi Nishiura, Hokkaido University professor and a key member of the task force.

Conveniently left out of the article.

"We don't expect 400,000 or so people to die (because of the virus). We can stop the spread of this infectious disease if we drastically reduce contact between people," said Hiroshi Nishiura, Hokkaido University professor and a key member of the task force. Something Carslidy conveniently let out of his cherry-picked quote.

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200415/p2g/00m/0na/077000c

6 ( +6 / -0 )

If the virus was first in Japan in January then why have we not seen a massive amount of sick and many many dead from it already?

I am hoping for the best.

5 ( +12 / -7 )

The projections are based on research from Hokkaido University professor Hiroshi Nishiura,

....so this is simply another model, and we know track record of models. A model can say anything, depending on what assumptions you put into it. Needless fearmongering by the health ministry and the media.

In the event, Japan is doing a good job already. Most people are wearing masks, general hygiene has always been good (nothing remotely like the hellish scenes we saw from Chinese animal torture markets), and public health is a lot better than i.e. the overweight and overmedicated population of many Western countries.

5 ( +9 / -4 )

850,000 ventilator cases. 400,000 deaths would be a horror story and become the greatest of all countries. Compared with the current situation, more than 7,000 cases and 162 deaths, would indicate we haven't even taken the first step.

I might never go out again. "zichi hikikomori".

5 ( +6 / -1 )

@HBJ

I'm on the same page as you. Hopefully it will have an impact on some people. We can also be sure, as can already be seen in some of the comments here, it will be completely ignored by many who refuse to acknowledge that this could be very serious. Those people like to point to the current situation and just assume that things can't or won't change.

5 ( +6 / -1 )

Trying to scare the nuto out of people to keep them inside. Cheap and possibly affective. Fingers crossed

Since the government cannot force people to stay home and too many do not listen to the "urge" to do it. Then maybe this is worth a try.

5 ( +5 / -0 )

can't enact laws to make people stay home.

can't support people who have lost their jobs.

can't fund or prepare for an influx of COVID9 positive patients.

can offer two tiny cotton masks per household at a cost to the taxpayer of 46 billion yen.

5 ( +6 / -1 )

They’re now just figuring this out? Maybe in another month they’ll think about testing people more.

5 ( +7 / -2 )

a photo of a staff member going OUTSIDE while asking people to stay home

5 ( +6 / -1 )

Then there is really nothing we can do, is there? Might as well just all go back to work and enjoy eating and drinking until it’s our “turn” to catch it

Well, they do say ignorance is bliss.

5 ( +6 / -1 )

"If we are unprepared and hit by the pandemic, we will run out of respirators," 

IF we are, sorry this should read "we are......

5 ( +5 / -0 )

I'm looking at the photo. So, suddenly, English is now the official language of Japan, is it? There is a pandemic and still, they can't be serious and uncool, and just write in a language which all citizens can understand?

5 ( +7 / -2 )

Japanese Government's Response: Can't die from coronavirus if we don't test for coronavirus. taps head

5 ( +5 / -0 )

My face is really starting to hurt from all the face palming I do whenever I read Japans coronavirus news.

5 ( +5 / -0 )

Asahi newspaper. Take it with a grain of salt folks.

4 ( +10 / -6 )

We don't expect 400,000 or so people to die (because of the virus).," said Hiroshi Nishiura, Hokkaido University professor and a key member of the task force.

Conveniently left out of the article.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

My parents in New Zealand were told 80,000 might die. As of today 10 have.

Exactly. At some point in the future the hash tags and 'social awareness' will shift toward how badly we were duped out of our rights and incomes. It's sad that so many people are this susceptible to fear.

4 ( +11 / -7 )

So not going to Shinjuku past 8pm is going to count as’ virus containment’?

Glad I don’t live in Tokyo...

4 ( +7 / -3 )

I’m surprised by a lot of the comments made in response to this story.

The statement is ‘400,000 people could die without containment measures’

We have real evidence from around the world as to what happens with and without quick, prompt, containment measures. Just look at the UK and New Zealand as one comparative example. The US and South Korea as another.

Tokyo is very similar to New York. It shouldn’t come as a surprise if Tokyo starts to reach New York levels of infection. Sure, more people in Tokyo wear masks, and have fewer personal ‘touchy feely’ interactions than New Yorkers, but on the other hand there was no sign of social distancing here for months and months, and still life goes on without any huge changes. Only in the last few days have we seen supermarkets and convenience stores realise there’s a huge potential contamination risk at the cash register.

So, yes, 400,000 possible deaths nationwide seems reasonable to me IF containment measures aren’t taken.

I hope the final number won’t get anywhere near as high as that, and I hope people here finally start to take this thing more seriously.

Maybe the shock of seeing such a prediction will be a catalyst for some people to finally change their behaviour. If the government here is eternally unable to give out orders to stay at home - and they won’t attempt to make the necessary changes needed to give such an order - then shock tactics could end up being our best option.

4 ( +10 / -6 )

Blacklabel

If the government forces old people (over 60 or drawing pension) and at risk people to stay home, this death rate could never happen.

It's a mistake to think the only risk group are old people. Children, teen and young people have died. The older people are already staying at home except for shopping, hospitals and exercise.

Protect those at risk by enforcing stay at home on them.

Under the constitution nothing can be enforced.

4 ( +7 / -3 )

If the virus was first in Japan in January then why have we not seen a massive amount of sick and many many dead from it already?

I am hoping for the best.

Wide use of masks + no handshaking lowered the R naught compared to western countries. But the virus is still here and getting worse. Effect of any measure taken today won't be seen for a few weeks in the numbers.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

Health ministry says 400,000 could die in Japan without virus containment measures

Should read

Health ministry says 400,000 could die in Japan without massive PCR testing.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

Abe sitting on his butt doing nothing for 3 months

Now, thats a bit harsh......he did form a couple of panels, had some discussions over tea, played with his dog on a couch......ya know.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

What will be really interesting is when they publish the population figures next year and see if there is a sudden dip in the numbers.

Scarcity of testing, not counting people dying at home, or attributing the cause of death to pneumonia or other diseases is one thing . . . . but if the population suddenly plunges, say 200K people more than you were expecting, with no other reason other than Covid-19, what else can you blame?

4 ( +4 / -0 )

I want to know why the sign is in English and Katakana ?

Where's the kanji ?!

4 ( +4 / -0 )

Health ministry says 400,000 could die in Japan without virus containment measures

> someone should tell him that the population last year fell by more than that.

> The number of Japanese nationals fell 487,000 to 123.73 million

unless he already factoring that in and is talking about a population drop of 800, 000?

3 ( +7 / -4 )

Absolutely shameless fear mongering. The sad thing is the brainless masses that believe it all will cower in fear and do anything their govt asks.

Someone in a suit typed that on a screen and told it to be released to the public. why 400 000? why not 300000 or 500 000?

Don't fall for this rubbish, make your own minds up.

Also, why is the sign in English?

3 ( +18 / -15 )

The projections are based on research from Hokkaido University professor Hiroshi Nishiura, one of the infectious disease experts guiding the government's response to the outbreak.

Guiding the governments response since the Olympics were postponed they mean?

I mean coz the only response they have come up with so far is two cotton masks and close the pubs early so far..

3 ( +5 / -2 )

@Blacklabel

come on do the math! 40 million people in Japan would have to catch corona to support 400,000 deaths at a 1% mortality rate

Are you suggesting that it's impossible for 40 million people to be infected in Japan? Not only is it possible, it's likely inevitable. The question is how long does it take. The slower the better. For all those who say herd immunity is the answer, do you realize herd immunity requires 60-80% of the population to be infected. Come on, do the math!

3 ( +9 / -6 )

The is a huge new facility recently completed which should be used to administer to the massive surge in infected cases. Its called "The Olympic Stadium". Ironic that it will probably become one of the largest treatment facilities in Japan.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Health ministry says 400,000 could die in Japan without virus containment measures

someone should tell him that the population last year fell by more than that.

The number of Japanese nationals fell 487,000 to 123.73 million

https://japantoday.com/category/national/japan-population-drops-at-record-pace-in-2019

But anyway, IF the gov really believes that they should implement a quarantine.

2 ( +11 / -9 )

Once again we see Japan struggling to play ‘catch up’ as most countries have taken severe steps to control the spread of the virus, with the exception of the US. (roll eyes)

What is going to happen over Golden Week. There has been nothing done about controlling the domestic travel. Yes, some people have elected to stay home. However, many have not. I have no doubt this will result in yet another surge in new cases and in new areas as people travel far and wide for sightseeing and to visit relatives, mostly the vulnerable elderly. The figure of 400,000 is an extreme exaggeration, However, extremely high numbers of cases and deaths are easily predictable unless Japan takes drastic action similar to that of Australia and New Zealand.

2 ( +6 / -4 )

Don’t worry, the figures will never reach 400,000 because the government will never do enough testing to confirm them so the majority will be classified as something else.

Simples, problem solved, you have nothing to worry about!

2 ( +5 / -3 )

Alfle Noakes

I am sorry I can't say it exactly, however they are such people who said;

"Tokyo will be the next Wuhan" in February,

"Tokyo will be the next Italy" in March, and

"Tokyo will be the next N.Y." now with fun.

2 ( +8 / -6 )

This is likely month 5 of corona in Japan.

less than 100 deaths during that time with no social distancing, no shutdowns, and no restrictions on foreigners entering.

but now 400,000 might die? And all we get it 2 masks and “stay home”. How long will people accept to stay home based on fear-mongering?

2 ( +8 / -6 )

if Japanese people don't start staying home 'every day' there will be no end to the ever increasing daily rate of new cases. Japan is way too densely populated to take 'passive' action against this virus.

Completely agree with @disillusioned.

I made the mistake of going for a run this afternoon along the river (in Yokohama). I couldn’t believe how many people were out having picnics in groups or 10 or more. There were several groups of 4 or 5 mamatomos with their kids are gathered having picnics. It was packed, and there was absolutely no physical distancing happening. It’s like people don’t understand what terms like “state of emergency” or “global pandemic” actually mean.

As for my own running, I’ll be doing it late at night from now on!

2 ( +6 / -4 )

400,000 deaths from covid 19 , well im starting a new business building coffins and urns then if that is the case, gotta be gold in them hills somewhere.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

新型コロナウイルスの感染について厚生労働省の専門家チームが国内で防止対策が何も取られなかった場合の推計を示し、最悪の場合、およそ40万人以上が死亡すると発表しました

"In regards to the spread of the corona virus, the specialists at the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare have presented estimates that if no preventative measures were taken, in the worst case scenario over 400,000 people would die."

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Japan could see some 850,000 people seriously sickened by the coronavirus and almost half of them dying if no social distancing or other measures are followed, according to an expert estimate released Wednesday

And they wanted to hold the Olympic Games in this?

2 ( +4 / -2 )

It doesn't matter what the number is, someone will lose a loved one from virus. Please be careful, wear a mask if sick or if you have to go out. Lets help each other get thru this. No time to place blame, just be safe, use common sense .

2 ( +3 / -1 )

My question is if I had coronavirus and now have recovered and have antibodies is there any reason I should stay home?

It is not yet known if having the virus once definitely confers immunity. Seems this virus is a whole new ballgame in various ways.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/03/15/can-you-get-infected-by-coronavirus-twice-how-does-covid-19-immunity-work/#ec788f75c0f8

2 ( +2 / -0 )

kokontozaiToday 06:17 pm JST

Nobody believes such ridiculous scenario except those who hope it will become real.

Who is that? What do you mean?

1 ( +5 / -4 )

A staff member of the Tokyo metropolitan government holds up a placard as he calls for people to stay home in Shinjuku on Tuesday night.  Photo: REUTERS/Issei Kato

First, placard is too small. You can hardly see the words from a distance. Second, who in the world is going to think, "Yeah. I should be going straight back home." after seeing it. Those in the Tokyo metropolitan government really knows how to fight the spread of the virus.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

Can anyone say they actually feel like there is a plan from the Japanese government? It feels like ‘let’s hope for the best’. People ARE NOT TAKING THIS SERIOUSLY. Wake up and do something abe!!!!

1 ( +6 / -5 )

some decent reporting would be nice.

perhaps grill a politician?

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Unless they’re saying that these 400K extra deaths would be on top of the 1.4 million annual deaths a year in Japan, they’re playing fast and loose with numbers. Conversely, statistics showing that the total number of deaths in a number of countries in the first quarter of 2020 clearly surpassed those in the same period in 2019 would go a long way to removing the penumbra of doubt surrounding the authorities claims.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

Klausdorth, and Alexandre T. Ishii....Thank you for your valuable input.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

did they just figured this today but 3 weeks ago they wanted still to do the Olympics ???

do they know what they are doing ?

1 ( +3 / -2 )

So far one of the most staggering things I have noticed is that many of the elderly themselves are seemingly indifferent to it all. Every day I see scores, hundreds of elderly out and about on trains ( I unfortunately I need to be on them myself) at shops, outside still rather busy train stations, playing gateball (all crowded together) everywhere! Speaking to someone who works in mall, they commented at the huge numbers of older shoppers still window shopping and going to the mall. Just today an very frail elderly couple walking together, with canes, no masks outside a train station. Part of me really wanted to ask why? perhaps they had some incredibly urgent business, but did all the elderly I saw have urgent business? couldn't they find another way to get groceries? Co-op home delivery for example?

The one group that is most at risk and a scary number of them with a such a cavalier attitude towards it. All the kids are out of school in large part to protect the vulnerable, businesses are getting squeezed, and many elderly are carrying on as usual? NHK news needs a S.T.F.A.H campaign specifically aimed at this reckless group.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

400,000 deaths is based upon old data. More current estimates are that covid-19 has a R0 (infection rate) of 5.7:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/04/07/the-covid19-coronavirus-disease-may-be-twice-as-contagious-as-we-thought/

Therefore the estimate should be over one million would be expected to die.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

"The original Japanese says 'had there been no measures taken there would have been as many as ....'"

One Japanese source I came across had the following written: "新型コロナウイルスの感染について厚生労働省の専門家チームが国内で防止対策が何も取られなかった場合の推計を示し、最悪の場合、およそ40万人以上が死亡すると発表しました"

I'm not proficient in Japanese like a native speaker. Can somebody confirm that this sentence is predicting up to how many people would have died to date had measures not been taken? The tenses are a bit confusing to me, although the ”取られなかった場合” appears to indicate discussion of a past hypothetical scenario.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

"In regards to the spread of the corona virus, the specialists at the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare have presented estimates that if no preventative measures were taken, in the worst case scenario over 400,000 people would die."

Thank you. This translation makes a lot more sense than "Had there been no preventative measures taken, as many as 400,000 people would have died" as a person above suggested. Because what massive preventative measures have been taken in Japan thus far to save the lives of up to 400,000 people?

1 ( +3 / -2 )

The CFR hypothesis, Hokkaido University professor Hiroshi Nishiura claims, including the report projected infection transmission ratio, as reported above, are identical to Imperial College London MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis including the team’s infectious disease modelling criteria published in Professor Neil Ferguson study........February 2020

And is dependent on detection rates to quantify the model specific to each country……

Quote….

A key measure of severity of any outbreak is the case fatality ratio (CFR) - the proportion of people with a disease who will eventually die as a result of infection. Quantifying this can be challenging.

Cases of infection are detected through surveillance, which typically occurs when ill people seek healthcare. Depending on the demands a healthcare system is under, and the capacity to undertake testing, confirmed case numbers reported during an outbreak only ever represent a fraction of the true levels of infection in the community.

Coronavirus fatality rate estimated by Imperial scientists……

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/195217/coronavirus-fatality-rate-estimated-imperial-scientists/

To obtain an accurate prediction ratio to establish CFR, mass test/tracing would need to be carried out.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

"We can stop the spread of this infectious disease if we drastically reduce contact between people," said Hiroshi Nishiura, Hokkaido University professor and a key member of the task force.

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/04/cb88fe2bc495-govt-task-force-stresses-need-to-reduce-human-contact-to-fight-virus.html

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Not only does Japan make it really difficult to get a test, but people in Japan don't want a test because they love working so much...in this robotic society I'm guessing right now there's more than 50,000 infected people, if not more.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Given that the total number of deaths is currently not even a third of 400,000, and the death rates in countries more severely affected are slowly decreasing, the aforementioned figure is nothing more than fantasty plucked from thin air.

The information in this article is absolute nonsense fear-mongering created to frighten people.

0 ( +21 / -21 )

Hey, they need to fill the hotel beds which are now empty because of the Olympics! This is a good way for doctors to make money and for the hotels to stay open and have people eat at the buffets. Invite your friends for breakfast! Support the economy!

0 ( +3 / -3 )

The original Japanese says "had there been no measures taken there would have been as many as ...."

0 ( +3 / -3 )

There is a big chance the Japanese hospitals will be completely overwhelm in a week or so. Show respect to the health care people with social distancing to release their burden as much as possible.

There is no scientific reasons why this virus would behave differently in Japan than in the rest of the world.

Testing is too late to conceal clusters. They are everywhere, it is a pandemic.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

Zeram1Today  10:46 pm JST

400,000 deaths is based upon old data. More current estimates are that covid-19 has a R0 (infection rate) of 5.7:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/04/07/the-covid19-coronavirus-disease-may-be-twice-as-contagious-as-we-thought/

Therefore the estimate should be over one million would be expected to die.

Sorry but if the R0 rate is higher than expected then more people have already been infected and havent died so the mortality rate would be much lower, so the number of expected deaths should decrease.

If I wrong please explain.

>

0 ( +2 / -2 )

Carpslidy: We don't expect 400,000 or so people to die (because of the virus).," said Hiroshi Nishiura, Hokkaido University professor and a key member of the task force.

Conveniently left out of the article.

"We don't expect 400,000 or so people to die (because of the virus). We can stop the spread of this infectious disease if we drastically reduce contact between people," said Hiroshi Nishiura, Hokkaido University professor and a key member of the task force.

Something Carpslidy conveniently let out of his cherry-picked quote.

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200415/p2g/00m/0na/077000c

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Japan could see some 850,000 people seriously sickened by the coronavirus and almost half of them dying.......

A 50% death rate? That is ridiculous!

0 ( +3 / -3 )

Richard Gallagher..what is your point??

I can't make head or tail of it!

0 ( +1 / -1 )

The article is missing links to the full report, including data. Maybe Hokkaido University professor Hiroshi Nishiura statements are more an effort to impress on people the importnance of soical distancing.

To make a accurate summary, the data has to be painstaking compiled, and would require at the very least 1 in 19 of the population tested/traced.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Research paper by the CDC, calculating a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9):

High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

The high number of the use of masks is the only saving grace in Japan at the moment. I just hope that every household only has two people. Thanks Abe-san.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Sorry, the paper was published by the Los Alamos National Labs, a more credible organization than the CDC itself.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Zeram1, Interesting research paper.

So far, I have only perused the discussion section, (time limited actively on US conference calls)..

Quote….

How contagious SARS-CoV-2 is in other countries remains to be seen. Given the rapid rate of spread as seen in current outbreaks in Europe, we need to be aware of the difficulty of controlling SARS-CoV-2 once it establishes sustained human-to-human transmission in a new population.

Our results suggest that a combination of control measures, including early and active surveillance, quarantine, and especially strong social distancing efforts, are needed to slow down or stop the spread of the virus.......

How this would be achievable in a city the size of Tokyo is a moot point. The City population would need to exercise/ shop for necessities etc etc.

To logistically co-ordinate/structure a framework to stagger peoples need to vacate there dwellings would be logistically challenging if not impossible

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Get Smart!

Obviously the ol' over reactionary could be a disaster with 400,000 dead technique to get 'em all off the streets after the ol' ignore the viral death data for the Olympics and don't believe wha's happenin' in other countries so just keep workin' and carry on as usual.

I didn't know the coronavirus was so binary, but hey, the Abe government teaches us something every day.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

RecklessApr. 15 04:36 pm JST

My question is if I had coronavirus and now have recovered and have antibodies is there any reason I should stay home?

6( +8 / -2 )

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-09/coronavirus-may-reactivate-in-cured-patients-korean-cdc-says

0 ( +0 / -0 )

From last week to this week the numbers taking the train has dropped dramatically. No, I am not taking the train can see the train station from condo window and would say last week at any one time in the morning 150 people or a little more and this week 20 to 40. The other shock and about bloody time, I went to my local mall to fill up on water found the food court totally shut down no old people and or young teenagers lounging around...finally. If this can keep up we have hope and if it does not due to warm and or hot weather we are in trouble.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Everywhere in the world people are scared of the stigma of being tested positive.

But in Japan this is multiplied by a significant factor because of this "burden" to the society. Basically you are blamed for being sick while there should be empathy to support you.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

The following Internet article offers some hope,

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/news/sunlight-destroys-coronavirus-very-quickly-new-government-tests-find-but-experts-say-pandemic-could-still-last-through-summer-200745675.html

0 ( +0 / -0 )

If the government forces old people (over 60 or drawing pension) and at risk people to stay home, this death rate could never happen.

Protect those at risk by enforcing stay at home on them.

-1 ( +3 / -4 )

Mirai Hayashi:

My company is doing testing for the covid virus. Last month, the infection rate was about 1 out of every 10 people (infected)....now its up to 1 out of every 4 people testing positive, with most being asymptomatic.

That is interesting. Mirrors the results from Iceland, where they also try to test everyone. So how different can your company be from the country as a whole? I have long suspected that many many more people are "infected" than any model suggests, and the vast majority never even knows it.

This is no joke. The death rate is low, but it was low in Europe and the States in the begining, and now look where they are.

Lots of confusion about these "death rates". It all depends on how you count it and what definition you are using. I.e. many leading virologists have been pointing out that there is a huge difference between dying with Corona or from Corona, and many governments and hospitals do not make that distinction.

The Jgov needs to take better measures NOW, while the numbers are still manageable

I keep hearing this, but what exactly do you want more than this? I see crazy reports from England about people being chased into the house of our their own front yards, and police hiding in the bushes to prevent families from having a picknick.... is that what you have in mind?

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

While I think Japan is not doing enough and that a dash of doom might help shock people into more action, these estimates are way off the scale of credibility.

Presumably if coronavirus does take hold, the hospitals will kick out all of the people currently in them with broken arms or having blood sugar tests for diabetes. If that does not happen, then yes, the few remaining beds may be overwhelmed very quickly.

-1 ( +3 / -4 )

Those are crazy numbers, that's not going to happen. Whilst I don't think the Japanese government are proving to be particularly nimble to date, they aren't idiots. There is no way they will allow that to happen.

No way.

-1 ( +4 / -5 )

Entirely bogus statistics. Herd immunity, which has commenced, is the only viable means, at the moment, to staunch the contagion. There are a slew of epidemiologists and scientists who are critical of 'flattening the curve' and others who see a peak rising in the disease and then it diminishes. Tokyo, for all its faults in dealing with the virus, is not New York City and it is essentially impossible to contain the spread of the virus. The elderly need to be distanced from potential infection, as do those with medical conditions or piss-poor health. One should not ignore the impetus to be careful, but shutting down the economy is basely ignorant. Which doesn't mean folks should be heading down to the neighborhood izakaya, swilling brew and being chummy with one's fellows. Washing your hands after contact with foreign objects or places and wearing a mask reduce the chance of infection to about 30%. A modicum of social distancing is an add on, 40% without absolute strictures - that reduces the chance of infection by 70%. Frame it out by your age and don't simply act like a barbarian from afar - simply be careful and take care not to endanger others or oneself. Anti-virals would be keen for those who get flattened by the virus - supposedly that is in the mix. A vaccine, may or may not appear. Essentially, most everyone will be infected more or less, the inevitability can be measured & managed by very certain protocols and manners. As we were schooled while children, stay away from strangers. Dial in: Professor Ionannidis, Dr. Katz and others of their ilk for perspective. Italy is not Japan. The U.S. is not Japan. Both those countries have health concerns throughout their populations and are different from conditions in Japan. They are not functional models in myriad ways.

-1 ( +8 / -9 )

@Richard Gallagher

THISvis the most insightful comment I have read since the beginning of the epidemic. Thanks!

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

Nobody believes such ridiculous scenario except those who hope it will become real.

-2 ( +6 / -8 )

So how long does containment have to last to prevent these 400,000 deaths? After 3 months containment will it be half that or still the same? Can we contain the at risk people instead?

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

come on do the math! 40 million people in Japan would have to catch corona to support 400,000 deaths at a 1% mortality rate. According to a German study mortality is likely half that so 60-80 million.

thats 1 in every 3 or 2 of every 3 people in the country catching this. including children and babies and teenagers.

why is this here on this site?

-2 ( +6 / -8 )

Yeah exactly @zack. Who tells the stay at home sign guy that he is supposed to be at home? He is more than likely over 50 and at risk.

-2 ( +2 / -4 )

Then there is really nothing we can do, is there? Might as well just all go back to work and enjoy eating and drinking until it’s our “turn” to catch it.

-2 ( +4 / -6 )

Who would have guessed that the safest place in the entire world would end up being China?

3300 deaths in a 1.2 billion population. No new cases and already reopening. Amazing, huh?

-2 ( +6 / -8 )

Fear mongering at its best

-2 ( +6 / -8 )

コロナウイルスの感染について厚生労働省の専門家チームが国内で防止対策が何も取られなかった場合の推計を示し、最悪の場合、およそ40万人以上が死亡すると発表しました"

@ bruce Chatwin

As masswipe

Kindly points out this calculation is if we had literally hadnt taken any measures i.e stopping large events etc

We don't expect 400,000 or so people to die (because of the virus).  First Clause

We can stop the spread of this infectious disease if we drastically reduce contact between people, second clause

They are seperate statements one is dismissing his own calculation.

The second is advising ways to stop the spread not ways that if we don't follow mean we will reach 400.000

If you read the Japanese is it clear.

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

400,000 could die in Japan - Health Ministry

200,000 could die in the U.S. - Dr. Fauci

"could" - Never has so much damage been inflicted on so many people and economies by the use of one word.

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

I think it's time I stop reading the news. Media doing their best to scare the crap out of us!

-3 ( +11 / -14 )

In Japanese expression better say STA HOME 1o 外出は感染大 Gaishutuwa kanseidai, to be in English "going out means more infection" . Not polite, but not pressing expression.

-3 ( +2 / -5 )

why Japan does not use Avigan now

to shorten contagious periods of patients with mild symptoms

and to cure for pneumonia, Covid19 induced ?

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

Currently Japan is doing FA in compliance with Abe’s polite request to maybe, if it doesn’t inconvenience you too much, to pretty please, cut back on your socializing. The nearest bar/karaoke is still open and doing a brisk business with golfers from Tokyo and locals, most of whom don’t wear masks. Larger businesses and the hospitals are doing a better job - suggesting that customers stay a meter apart. With the growth in infections and that 70% cannot be tracked; with the healthcare industry already stressed; I can easily see the 400k or more.

-4 ( +4 / -8 )

7000 people in 4.5 months. So how long will it take to get to 40 million? Even with this exponential increase idea that is not really proven- we are taking a decade or two.

You do know the entire world only has 10% of that supposed Japan number now, right?

Are you suggesting that it's impossible for 40 million people to be infected in Japan? Not only is it possible, it's likely inevitable.

-4 ( +3 / -7 )

Japan could see some 850,000 people seriously sickened by the coronavirus and almost half of them dying if no social distancing or other measures are followed, according to an expert estimate released Wednesday.

the expert realised that corona virus is already more than 6 weeks free circulating in Japan and actually the situation is not as dramatic as he would expect ?

Or the expert thinks corona virus arrived on March 25, the day after Olympic Games were postponed ?

(Actually is what Mrs. Koike also thinks, I suppose, lol)

-5 ( +1 / -6 )

Well if you have to slaughter economy than let's do it! I'm all in! Then 2 million will die because of no work situation.

-8 ( +4 / -12 )

Login to leave a comment

Facebook users

Use your Facebook account to login or register with JapanToday. By doing so, you will also receive an email inviting you to receive our news alerts.

Facebook Connect

Login with your JapanToday account

User registration

Articles, Offers & Useful Resources

A mix of what's trending on our other sites