national

Japan likely to hit COVID-19 herd immunity in Oct: researcher

91 Comments
By Rocky Swift

The requested article has expired, and is no longer available. Any related articles, and user comments are shown below.

© Thomson Reuters 2021.

©2021 GPlusMedia Inc.

91 Comments
Login to comment

There is no such thing as herd immunity with virus because virus constantly mutate and evolve. That's why herd immunity has never been achieved for the common cold or flu.

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

The vaccine also reduces seriousness of Covid-19 if you do get both doses. Almost no chance of hospitalization.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Oh, virusrex, excuse my English sense of humor, and be assured I read your comments fully.

Remember it is only my opinion after all.

0 ( +4 / -4 )

A humorous aside, if I may, if the government of China ever require a additional spokesperson, you would be a prefect candidate. Politely stated.

Because I repeatedly said they acted wrong and should be made responsible for their actions? I am sure they could find someone better. It is very interesting how you can completely ignore something you don't want to read, even when stated so clearly.

1 ( +5 / -4 )

So people will be immune before getting a jab, wonderful

6 ( +6 / -0 )

virusrex, can I leave you with the last word?

I am sure there will be numerous occasions to pick this up again.

A humorous aside, if I may, if the government of China ever require a additional spokesperson, you would be a prefect candidate. Politely stated.

0 ( +5 / -5 )

virusrex, I think we both know perfectly well my opinion is to raise questions about the reliance on the concept of herd immunity.

That is like raising questions about our obedience to the law of gravity, what do you propose to replace a state where a disease is no longer spreading thanks to enough people being immune to it (be it by natural infection or by vaccination)? do you think is better that people keep getting endlessly sick and dying from the infection? how would that be better?

This last paragraph in the Lancet article brooches the point in question.

Ok, this may be what you are confused about, herd immunity is the point where the infection is no longer dangerous to the population, it is the goal.

Now, we can reach the goal in two very different ways, one is to let people get sick and die without control until the ones remaining are immune, but lots of people would need to die because of that, so it is not acceptable. The second way is to control the infection and provide a safe way to make the individuals immune, the best way to do it is by vaccinating, if we vaccinate everybody (or at least the segment being necessary according to the calculations for that specific disease) we reach the same goal but without sacrificing anybody.

So, herd immunity as a goal is not problematic nor dangerous, trying to reach herd immunity with uncontrolled natural infections is the problematic approach. Its like putting out a fire, you can choose to call the fire department and let them control the disaster, or you can just let things burn uncontrollably hoping it does not involve too many of your neighbors, the goal is not the problem, how to reach that goal is.

virusrex, you do agree with this measure?

Sure, but you have to understand that it has absolutely no importance for the control of the pandemic, it is a political measure that brings nothing useful, the virus is as likely to be originated from that lab than from being a gift from aliens to the Chinese.

A real useful measure would be to do something that would prevent the mismanagement of the pandemic after it was identified by the Chinese authorities, for example putting an alarm system involving officials in other countries, so even if the government don't like what the doctors report there would be no way to hide it.

In a way distracting resources (economical and political) to insist on the completely unbelievable conspiracy means that they will not be used for the real flaws of the Chinese that need to be corrected. What if the Chinese say "OK, go to the lab, but not to hospitals X, Y and Z?" They have nothing to worry about a place that very likely had nothing to do with the outbreak until it was already official, so "giving up" on that may give leverage to the Chinese government to hide the real places where things actually were done badly.

Prove my suspicions unfounded.

When your suspicions are founded in a bad understanding of what is important or not, the responsibility for dispelling those suspicions is completely yours.

1 ( +4 / -3 )

virusrex, I think we both know perfectly well my opinion is to raise questions about the reliance on the concept of herd immunity.

I don't have a view to impose as I am not pretending to be a expert on the subject.

This last paragraph in the Lancet article brooches the point in question.

COVID-19 mortality in the UK and the USA has already taken a disproportionate toll on poor and minority groups, a reflection of systemic racism and poverty. At one urgent care centre in a largely Latino, working-class neighbourhood in New York City—named, remarkably, Corona—68·4% of antibody tests came back positive.

But it remains unclear whether these antibodies will protect individuals or generate herd immunity. Until there exist vaccines that can do both of those things, societies will need to continue to try to control the spread of the virus at the local level through public health measures and community action, to protect the most vulnerable people, and to support public health and medical systems. We should not simply put our faith in the immunity of our herd.

The vaccines will have a critical role to play, however there is a question mark whether in the case of covid-19 they will be able to sustain herd immunity.

So, to the case of the death of Peter Attwood, 84 in some respects UK patient zero, and the reason why the Government of China must give unfettered access to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the scientists and employees, the whistle blowers  etc etc in full to the WHO investigative teams.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8711951/Grandfather-84-NEVER-left-UK-earliest-known-fatality-coronavirus-outside-China.html

virusrex, you do agree with this measure?

Prove my suspicions unfounded.

1 ( +5 / -4 )

Yes, normally we would constantly be optimizing our antibodies with our constant exposure to viruses and bacteria. But we lose all this with this new normal of always wearing masks, staying home, social distancing, and sanitizing everything. If we continue like this then yes, we'll have to get vaccines for everything.

Any evidence of this actually happening? or is it something people are supposed to believe based on your authority? how come this "danger" is not being considered important by the professionals, is the whole world mistaken?

Relying on vaccines for protection against infections is nothing like only eating processed food, there is nothing positive that the natural infection provides that a vaccine would not, and instead a lot of risks, many hidden for long time come from choosing the natural infection when a vaccine is available.

And no, nobody is being brainwashed, people simply understand that the scientific proof is on the side of the vaccines, and as much as some people wish for everybody to be irrational believers on the anti-scientific conspiracies of some in general people can recognize that the immune system works best with vaccines, because you get the benefits without running the risks.

No kidding; Fauci and the CDC were also telling people in February that masks weren't necessary.

The science is never settled.

One, is not only the science that changed, also the complete situation, there is is little to gain from using masks when nobody in the community has the infection and a lot to lose when hospitals (the only place where their value was already demonstrated) cannot get masks to function properly.

Two, scientifically things can change, but for that it is absolutely required to have more and better evidence than what supports the current understanding. Using the scientific process as an excuse to say that what we know may be wrong is irrelevant unless you have the data to prove it. Yeah sure, some things may be wrong even with limited data indicating they are correct, but it is much more likely that things without any data supporting them are the wrong ones.

-1 ( +3 / -4 )

there was no hard direct evidence

No kidding; Fauci and the CDC were also telling people in February that masks weren't necessary.

The science is never settled.

-2 ( +3 / -5 )

Herd immunity could be acheived if we naturally get the "virus" and our immune systems take care of it. Oh wait, what am I saying? We don't use immune systems anymore; we must live in fear of everyone and our own bodies, watch the TV religiously and obey our corporate overlords because they always have our best interest...

Yes, normally we would constantly be optimizing our antibodies with our constant exposure to viruses and bacteria. But we lose all this with this new normal of always wearing masks, staying home, social distancing, and sanitizing everything. If we continue like this then yes, we'll have to get vaccines for everything.

Relying solely on vaccines for immunity is like relying solely of processed foods for nutrition; it'll work (sort of) but it's not the healthiest approach.

Also, what system do you think we use to make defenses after being vaccinated? the digestive one?

Perhaps you missed CommonSense's point, that people are being brainwashed to forget our immune system's natural function and into believing that it only functions in conjunction with vaccines.

-2 ( +2 / -4 )

virusrex, the scientific evidence is clearly laid out and explained in the bcc and lancet articles posted.

What evidence is that? the article just mention beliefs and indirect data that never point to any kind of proof, specially when they depend on things already demonstrated to be false, such as the first cases happening in the city of Wuhan.

The government of china has made a lot of mistakes and it is not justifiable how they managed the pandemic, but that does not mean that irrational fantasies that do not correspond with reality now have to be true because of that. Your terrible confusion comes from thinking that pointing out that the laboratory escape crazy theory is obviously false somehow exculpates the Chinese government, that is nonsense, they have plenty of things to respond of, there is no need to bring imaginary things to the mix.

There is no danger in depending on herd immunity, after all there is no other option (except everybody dying from the pandemic) you are completely misundertanding the Lancet article, it does not support what you want to argue (copy and paste here the fragment that supposedly says that herd immunity would be more dangerous than not having it)

My motivation is to correct mistaken things posted here, opinions and half truths being pushed as if they were some kind of universal facts. The whole scientific community agrees that the laboratory origin of the pandemic is not a realistic possibility, even if you really want to believe in it.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30641-1/fulltext

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

https://www.newsweek.com/claim-that-coronavirus-came-lab-china-completely-unfounded-scientists-say-1498308

So, here are well defined reason why focusing on a laboratory escape as the only (or even the most likely) possibility is invalid. The "evidence" you present is not enough to contradict these, why then would anybody insist on something so thoroughly proven false? is it that your motivations are not to find the truth but impose what you believe?

-2 ( +3 / -5 )

Herd immunity could be acheived if we naturally get the "virus" and our immune systems take care of it. Oh wait, what am I saying? We don't use immune systems anymore; we must live in fear of everyone and our own bodies, watch the TV religiously and obey our corporate overlords because they always have our best interest...

Do you have any data that contradicts the experts? Or you just consider the extra lives unnecessarily lost to the infection if everybody gets it naturally not important?

Also, what system do you think we use to make defenses after being vaccinated? the digestive one?

-2 ( +3 / -5 )

virusrex, the scientific evidence is clearly laid out and explained in the bcc and lancet articles posted.

You in danger of running around in circles, attempting to make excuses for the Government of China failure to take responsibility.

The dangers associated with the reliance of herd immunity, again detailed in the Lancet.

However, one post after another, virusrex you purposefully deflecting the blame or responsibility away from the Government of China.

What is your motivation here virusrex, to have a open and honest debate or maintain an agenda to exonerate the guilty party?

2 ( +6 / -4 )

Herd immunity could be acheived if we naturally get the "virus" and our immune systems take care of it. Oh wait, what am I saying? We don't use immune systems anymore; we must live in fear of everyone and our own bodies, watch the TV religiously and obey our corporate overlords because they always have our best interest...

-2 ( +4 / -6 )

For the young and healthy, the risk of a natural infection the same as the risk of a vaccine and probably as effective in achieving immunity.

So it is only sensible for them to go out and infect one another, the good old Chicken Pox party.

No, that is mistaken, the risk from vaccination is minuscule compared with the infection, young healthy people have died from COVID-19, that is why health care professionals do not recommend to get infected on purpose to get immunity, the vaccine is a much safer option.

-2 ( +3 / -5 )

Incompetency and bureaucracy rule Japan. The government should have been vaccinating its citizens in late December and not wait till March. The vaccines are unavailable as the EU and other countries have not received sufficient amounts towards their quota. Japan may have to resort to vaccines from Russia and China where efficacy is as low as 45%. Herd immunity in Japan will not take place until mid 2022 or later

4 ( +5 / -1 )

For the young and healthy, the risk of a natural infection the same as the risk of a vaccine and probably as effective in achieving immunity.

So it is only sensible for them to go out and infect one another, the good old Chicken Pox party.

1 ( +5 / -4 )

It did not escape from an infected bat at the lab. SARSCoV is exactly what was being created in the Wuhan lab, and what was being funded by Fauci since 2014. It's not impossible that the virus transferred naturally from bats to humans, but it is so much more likely that this virus was engineered in the lab to infect humans. Many of those claiming it emerged naturally have conflicts of interest.

No, that is just a baseless conspiracy theory wrong in almost every detail. The most similar virus to SARS-CoV-2 is a completely natural bat virus, there is no evidence whatsoever of human manipulation, the laboratory at Wuhan were researching changes in a very different direction and is only one between hundreds of laboratories that have any kind of collaboration or funding from the US it is actually more difficult to find a laboratory working on infectious diseases that has no such relationship.

The virus has not been engineered but the same as the previous highly pathogenic coronaviruses became pathogenic to human because of the interaction with the host animal. The whole world does not have conflicts of interest, many are definitely against China but still nobody (as in a serious organization) actually believe this irrational theory of laboratory origin. This is because it is hugely more likely that the virus came to humans in one of the millions and millions of interactions with nature than from a laboratory escape, specially because the first cases in humans were not even in the city of Wuhan.

0 ( +5 / -5 )

How do you define "natural phenomenon"? If a virus strain somehow gets out of a lab, is that not a natural phenomenon?

The way the viruses are maintained in the lab is not natural. They are maintained in various cell cultures, including human. It did not escape from an infected bat at the lab. SARSCoV is exactly what was being created in the Wuhan lab, and what was being funded by Fauci since 2014. It's not impossible that the virus transferred naturally from bats to humans, but it is so much more likely that this virus was engineered in the lab to infect humans. Many of those claiming it emerged naturally have conflicts of interest.

-4 ( +2 / -6 )

How do you define "natural phenomenon"? If a virus strain somehow gets out of a lab, is that not a natural phenomenon? Human and technical errors are quite natural, I would say.

No, that would not be considered natural by anybody with even a hint of common sense, what is a natural phenomenon is what happened with SARS and MERS and countless other viruses that became infectious to humans because of our interactions with nature.

Let me rephrase it so it is easier to understand. There is not a single health care professional or scientific association in the world that defends the theory that COVID-19 came from a laboratory.

2 ( +5 / -3 )

Yes there is, there is not a single health care professional or scientific association in the world that defends the theory that COVID-19 is not a natural phenomenon

How do you define "natural phenomenon"? If a virus strain somehow gets out of a lab, is that not a natural phenomenon? Human and technical errors are quite natural, I would say.

-5 ( +2 / -7 )

Just to pick your brains, virusrex, why would the Government of China at least initially deny entry to a organization that sole purpose is to ascertain the origins of covid-19?

Because it has always been obvious they want to hide the huge mess they did with the management of the pandemic after it was identified, ignoring very clear warnings that the thing was getting out of control under their noses.

And again, there is little relevance about the origin to manage the current situation, the WHO delegation is not there investigating how to stop spreading in the world but searching for clues of how the disease began and what can be done to prevent it for the next time, It is a very important job but it is not related to current control measures, other teams are for example evaluating evidence of drugs that make the complications less malign and could help saving complicated patients, but that has neither relationship with how to control the virus.

The whole point is that there are a lot of things to do about the pandemic, but not all are related to the same purpose.

That must of understood that herd immunity and covid-19 is a theory, and is are dependent on the number/ time element of those that are not vaccinated.

You do not understand correctly what "theory" means, it does not mean a "guess" or something similar, it means "explanation", that infections are caused by germs is also a theory, so is the role of the hearth on the circulation of blood, but that does not mean it lacks evidence.

Herd immunity do NOT depend on the numbers that are not vaccinated. The theory explains and predict what is happen to the outbreak no matter how many people are or not immune. Herd immunity is the situation where the disease spreading is interrupted because not enough people are susceptible and depending on the disease this value is different. The evidence and the strategy to follow correspond without problem, the more people are vaccinated the better and the safer everybody is.

There is no scientific consensus on this, and even if there was, it would be meaningless, as science is never defined by vote. The very definition of science is that any assumption is constanly open to challenges.

Yes there is, there is not a single health care professional or scientific association in the world that defends the theory that COVID-19 is not a natural phenomenon, You are terribly confused thinking consensus means unmovable monolithic dogma that everybody has to believe, it just means that at the moment considering all the valid evidence available this is the common conclusion the scientists and experts reached. You may not like this consensus, but unless you have more and better evidence than what is available right now that says something different your only option is to accept it.

At this point is not possible that the virus appeared in a fish market anymore, we already know there were patients with the infection on rural parts of the Hubei province before the market, What happened in Wuhan was a secondary outbreak that was much easier to notice because lots of people were infected. The institute was close to that market precisely because it is the biggest city of the province where new zoonotic viruses constantly appear, but to say the virus escaped from the laboratory you first need to explain how come previous cases were already around in a different place.

All things are possible, but not all are practically possible, this may be a virus that came from an invisible unicorn (yes, according to science anything is a possibility) but the evidence also points away from this possibility, the same as the laboratory accident explanation, it simply is an overly complicated scenario that is not necessary nor it corresponds with the available evidence.

1 ( +5 / -4 )

virusrex

COVID-19 is not a chimera either, and the scientific consensus is that it appeared naturally, the same as all the other highly pathogenic coronaviruses.

There is no scientific consensus on this, and even if there was, it would be meaningless, as science is never defined by vote. The very definition of science is that any assumption is constanly open to challenges.

In the event of Corona, sure it is possible that the virus spontanesously emerged at a fish market and had nothing to do with the Institute of Virology a kilometer away that had been conducting and publishing research on precisely this type of virus. All sorts of things are possible.

0 ( +5 / -5 )

virusrex, please don't take any of my questions personally, they are not, just enquires.

So, to progress.

Covid: WHO team investigating virus origins denied entry to China..

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55555466

Just to pick your brains, virusrex, why would the Government of China at least initially deny entry to a organization that sole purpose is to ascertain the origins of covid-19?

If as you suggest the origins are of little relevance?

That must of understood that herd immunity and covid-19 is a theory, and is are dependent on the number/ time element of those that are not vaccinated.

A history of herd immunity

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-67362031924-3/fulltext

There is a number of passages that support you opinion.

However the variants are able to mutate in the communities that vaccination programs are failing to reach in time to prevent the strain from further mutation.

Can you see this predicament?

0 ( +4 / -4 )

virusrexToday 05:47 pm JST

Patient zero is just something bad movies like to present as super-important, but it is actually irrelevant, the origin of the virus and the phylogenetic analysis to other viruses is useful to understand how the virus came to be infective to humans, evaluate how likely this is to happen again, what kind of measures can be taken to prevent it, how to keep vigilance in case it is suspected a new related virus is affecting humans, etc. etc. But to deal with the pandemic at this moment there is no point.

This.

0 ( +4 / -4 )

So virusrex, however one deflects the relevance of origins, in reference to defining patient zero, the genetic analysis, the ability to trace back the lineage of COVID-19 through those infected. Would this not be beneficial?

The only important part is to trace infections but there is absolutely no need to do it all the way to the origin, just enough to know how it is being passed along and which variant is being prevalent (because it may have a different R0) This is not deflection, it is just give the proper importance to each piece of information according to your purpose.

Patient zero is just something bad movies like to present as super-important, but it is actually irrelevant, the origin of the virus and the phylogenetic analysis to other viruses is useful to understand how the virus came to be infective to humans, evaluate how likely this is to happen again, what kind of measures can be taken to prevent it, how to keep vigilance in case it is suspected a new related virus is affecting humans, etc. etc. But to deal with the pandemic at this moment there is no point.

1 ( +6 / -5 )

Then why are they being administered.

Because they prevent complications (protect the people that are vaccinated) and are very likely to do prevent transmission, at least as much as being asymptomatic reduces transmission when compared with symptomatic patients.

Why do you think people recommended washing hands from the beginning of the pandemic? there was no hard direct evidence it would help stopping transmission, but it was very likely and actually it ended up being the case, so was social distancing, use of masks, etc.

Even if the vaccines were useless to prevent transmission they would be a valuable health intervention, and it is very likely they will prevent it, maybe even very importantly, and since the risk associated with the vaccines are negligible its like making a free sure bet, you lose nothing and very likely win something.

1 ( +6 / -5 )

And COVID-19 vaccines have not yet been evaluated for their capacity to prevent transmission

Then why are they being administered.

Money.

-3 ( +4 / -7 )

And COVID-19 vaccines have not yet been evaluated for their capacity to prevent transmission

Then why are they being administered.

-3 ( +2 / -5 )

So virusrex, however one deflects the relevance of origins, in reference to defining patient zero, the genetic analysis, the ability to trace back the lineage of COVID-19 through those infected. Would this not be beneficial?

-1 ( +3 / -4 )

Akie

It would surprise no one that Japan already achieve herd immunity.

Au contraire. It would surprise just about everyone, based on current infection numbers.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

If we had it already do we still need the vaccine?

That is not yet known, but it may be necessary to immunize people already infected, specially those that had no symptoms. Obviously the priority would be very low since those people already have some protection, but if it turns out this is less durable than what vaccination gives then it would be recommended to be immunized.

People and countries should not put so much faith in these vaccines. It is not the end game. Many vaccines have a 50% success rate, the flu, TB to name a couple. Countries like Australia and New Zealand have proven that isolation and vigilance are the most effective way to controlling the virus.

There are also cases of the virus evolving into different strains. It’s not a far stretch to imagine that virus will continue to evolve and become vaccine resistant.

And many others have a much better efficacy, like all the usual immunizations during infancy, or those for vector borne diseases like Yellow Fever or Japanese encephalitis. Isolation is effective, but it is not efficient, if a vaccine can replace the very heavy burden that isolation brings to the economy that would be very welcomed development. Also, until now the virus has not been able to produce escape mutants, that indicates that it is not an easy task for it. And immunity from a vaccine or from a natural infection is equivalent for this purpose, so long time protection is a more likely bet.

So the flaw, is the danger for governments inadvertent acceptance, the most vulnerable populations will succumb to a natural culling effect.

That is an invalid assumption and precisely why it is not justified to search for herd immunity with uncontrolled spread. With vaccination the community levels of immunity can be reached without exposing the most vulnerable population. They can be vaccinated so they become part of the herd or everybody else is, so transmission is at least slowed down (if not stopped completely) both things can be done at the same time. Avoiding culling is precisely what is being avoided by immunization.

You seem to think the percentage means the segment of the population that is protected, that is mistaken, the percentage means the segment of the population that, if immune, will stop transmission and will end the outbreak in that population, protecting everybody. If a disease needs a 50% to reach herd immunity this does not mean that 50% of the population would have to die, it means that if half the population becomes immune then that population can be considered protected because transmission would be interrupted.

Without any available knowledge or investigation into origins of COVID-19, it's akin to banging one's head against a wall .

Origins are irrelevant, that would be like saying that you need to know which gun was used to shot someone in order to treat the wound. In reality what is needed is the R0, the efficacy of the vaccine, the amount of reduction of communicability and the current prevalence of the infection. COVID-19 could have come from outer space and that would not have any importance.

1 ( +5 / -4 )

Must be clear Virusrex, I am not disputing your analysis.

Not at all.

0 ( +3 / -3 )

Virusrex, in order for any country, or globally, herd immunity, it’s theory/or even concept  Government will/may need to define its limits

And there is the flaw.

Defining who represents the herd and accordingly assessing the vulnerable, in so doing present a pandemic policy agenda to protect society’s most susceptible.

So the flaw, is the danger for governments inadvertent acceptance, the most vulnerable populations will succumb to a natural culling effect.

Bluntly put, defining acceptable loss, the herd immunity threshold needed for a vaccine-preventable outcome.

There are examples, say Diphtheria 84%, Smallpox 81/86%.

Without any available knowledge or investigation into origins of COVID-19, it's akin to banging one's head against a wall .

-2 ( +2 / -4 )

Hansen said Japan will not reach a 75% inoculation rate, a benchmark for herd immunity, until around October, about two months after the close of the Summer Games.

Seems like they are only looking at the vaccination rate, which is pointless. As the infection is already spreading through the population, with the vast majority of young, healthy people symptom-less, nobody knows the actual rate but it has to be much higher than the official estimates.

-3 ( +3 / -6 )

Almost certainly will not happen. Japan government doesnt seem to be too keen on giving vaccines to the general population.

At the earliest I'd say would be late 2022. By October of this year, I'd be surprised if Japan even got 20% of the population immunized.

5 ( +6 / -1 )

Herd immunity will be reached '' only a few months'' after the Olympics. What the heck does that imply? That because it's close its safe? And even if it's true, which is highly debatable at this point, October is not exactly close to the month of the Olympics. Clutching at straws?

5 ( +5 / -0 )

People and countries should not put so much faith in these vaccines. It is not the end game. Many vaccines have a 50% success rate, the flu, TB to name a couple. Countries like Australia and New Zealand have proven that isolation and vigilance are the most effective way to controlling the virus.

There are also cases of the virus evolving into different strains. It’s not a far stretch to imagine that virus will continue to evolve and become vaccine resistant.

-2 ( +4 / -6 )

They are joking, right?

4 ( +5 / -1 )

If we had it already do we still need the vaccine?

No, you should be immune.

-8 ( +2 / -10 )

The headline is misleading: Japan likely to hit COVID-19 herd immunity in Oct: researcher

It should read: Japan NOT likely to hit COVID-19 herd immunity until Oct: researcher

Glass full or half-full! In this case probably neither, as the estimates are nearly always off by at least a few months for anything here, if ever!

6 ( +6 / -0 )

If we had it already do we still need the vaccine?

2 ( +4 / -2 )

The government will need to arrange and have capacity along with great logistics and records to do around 500,000 injections for 7 days a week for 9 months to give everyone a single shot of vaccine. I somehow don’t believe that this is going to happen. They can’t do a fraction of PCR tests that other countries are doing.

7 ( +7 / -0 )

Ha!! Yeah right. Good luck with that, Japan. Who on earth is this researcher?

4 ( +5 / -1 )

October is hugely over optimistic goal for Japan.

8 ( +9 / -1 )

gokai_wo_manekuToday 12:32 pm JST

But you also have to take into account all the new variants that will be introduced into Japan during the Olympics. So maybe October 2040?

That was not in the simulation, was not requested in projection and therefore it will not happen. /sarcasm end

The central goverment planned in first half of 2020 that the virus will be over by the end of 2020. They seriously do not consider it'll take years to recover. And then, in the middle of the peak, start campaign like gototravel. And then get surprised why there is another peak.

5 ( +5 / -0 )

Neither the Pfizer nor Moderna vaccines prevent infection nor transmission, they only prevent the vaccinated from becoming seriously ill.

No vaccine ever prevents infection, it is not a realistically possible objective, all work preventing the disease.

And COVID-19 vaccines have not yet been evaluated for their capacity to prevent transmission, that is a very different thing from not being able to do it. Even if their only effect was to make symptomatic cases asymptomatic that would mean a reduction of about 2/3 of the risk.

6 ( +10 / -4 )

But you also have to take into account all the new variants that will be introduced into Japan during the Olympics. So maybe October 2040?

5 ( +6 / -1 )

Primarily, vaccines by their very definition shield or safeguard the vaccinated against infection.

Neither the Pfizer nor Moderna vaccines prevent infection nor transmission, they only prevent the vaccinated from becoming seriously ill.

-3 ( +4 / -7 )

"Hansen said Japan will not reach a 75% inoculation rate, a benchmark for herd immunity, until around October, about two months after the close of the Summer Games." Shocking, said nobody who lives here...

4 ( +4 / -0 )

The headline is misleading: Japan likely to hit COVID-19 herd immunity in Oct: researcher

It should read: Japan NOT likely to hit COVID-19 herd immunity until Oct: researcher

6 ( +7 / -1 )

This is just "Great Theater". The real issue is Diminished Effectiveness and the continual re-vaccination by migrating booster shots to maintain immunity..

At this point there is no indication it will be necessary, immunity for previous highly pathogenic coronaviruses seems to be long lasting, so it is likely it will also be for COVID019.

Primarily, vaccines by their very definition shield or safeguard the vaccinated against infection.

Yes, but that not only applies to the individual, it also can be said about populations, vaccines safeguard the vaccinated populations against infection.

In essence this number will increase the risk of further mutation.

That could be the case, but it would require for asymptomatic transmission to be extremely exceptional, for this disease this is not the case, so the worst that could happen is that vaccination has the same effect, not increasing the risk (since it is very high even without vaccination). Another requirement is for vaccines to be ineffective in the protection of the vaccinated people, this is not the case for any human vaccine that is on use because approval requires them to be much more effective than the level necessary to allow for this.

What is the indirect effect of vaccination on/ to risk of infection to the proportion that has not been vaccinated?

In general is to reduce the risk, this doesn't require for absolute lack of transmission from vaccinated people, any reduction on communicability is useful, but obviously the less transmission is possible the less percentage of the population is required to be immune for herd immunity.

At this point nobody believes Japan can achieve immunity at a community level this year. Even keeping strong social distancing measures.

6 ( +10 / -4 )

japan ordered 300 million doses for a population of 126 million. So, losing 100 million doses would still be fine. No?

No. A population of 126 million needs 252 million doses, ideally with at least a couple million more to cover wastage, accidents, etc. 300 million minus 100 million is 200 million. Not enough.

America needs 100 million more Pfizer vaccines to be on the safe side to reach their goals, and a lot of those 100 million would come from the Japan pile.

Great to have an ally you can rely on. Not.

If Japan has arranged to buy 314 million doses from Pfizer, Moderna Inc and AstraZeneca Plc, then it's not on for those companies to divert supplies to America or any other country that didn't arrange to buy enough. If America is short 100 million doses, there's no problem; 74 million Americans (148 doses) think Covid 19 is a hoax anyway and won't be wanting no microchip-laced, mind-bending vaccine anyhow..

8 ( +9 / -1 )

Let's get the MyPillow guy an interview too about vaccine supply and demand...

...or how about an Australian Think Tank.

4 ( +5 / -1 )

The whole concept vaccines and immunity, seem to have a ring of wishful thinking, a wing and a prayer.

Primarily, vaccines by their very definition shield or safeguard the vaccinated against infection.

The herd or populous aided through the direct effect of vaccine, should increase the proportion of the population who are immune from infection.

This is dependent on the transmutation of the variants from person-to-person that have not been vaccinated.

In essence this number will increase the risk of further mutation.

Sorry, my cynicism provokes the question.

What is the indirect effect of vaccination on/ to risk of infection to the proportion that has not been vaccinated?

The time to reach the level of participants to create the herd effect without having to vaccinate the entire population?

What or where is the cut-off point?

The 2020/21/22 Olympic Games could depend on this.

-3 ( +4 / -7 )

The banter is slightly interesting, but as is typical, ill-informed. Herd immunity sans the vaccine has proven a disaster aka Sweden, a less populated country than Japan.

As pointed out, Airfinity is a small public relations firm, not a scientific entity. Run by a man with a political science degree alongside his comrade who was in advertising. There business is essentially propaganda.

2 ( +7 / -5 )

I agree with Peter Neil that the "researchers" here have dubious qualifications and are likely to have limited access to and knowledge of the health system in Japan. They may not even read Japanese.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

This is just "Great Theater". The real issue is Diminished Effectiveness and the continual re-vaccination by migrating booster shots to maintain immunity...

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Herd immunity comes from being infected by something that many, "herd" passes from one to others, naturally. And so they become immune from getting infected again. The vaccines are said to not stop transmission or recurrences by the producers of the vaccines. Which is it? Get the vaccine that won't stop transmission, but allow transmission for the "herd immunity". Or using the traditional meaning of herd immunity, let it spread through out the herd.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

Yeah sure. Once they stop discussing and debating about when they can procure enough vaccines, wake me up. Till then, any talk about when vaccinations start is pointless, let alone herd immunity.

11 ( +12 / -1 )

Herd immunity.. That's a stupid idea. Why we don't learn from countries like UK, Sweden, Czech or Italy? They were also "herd immunity" and it failed massively. You cannot always apply previous solutions to new situations. And if this proved NG in other countries, why Japan should be different? If majority of other countries do A, Japan has to do the complete opposite.

3 ( +6 / -3 )

all of this is just one big business.

not real care to save peoples lives but make a fat profit out of gov funds.

let me ask why Japan cant use vaccines from Russia and China?cheaper,with high % of success in most cases.

or we need wait for Takeda and die in thousadns?how long we still have live in this matrix?

-5 ( +6 / -11 )

This Hansen makes a comment on a situation he knows nothing about and I am referring to Japan. He makes that clear by saying that Japan could inoculate roughly 91 million people ( 75%) in 8 months ?? (Begin March to begin ( Nov). I don’t think that to be the case by mid 2022 even.

Those of us living here will agree. They are leaving the planning up to the bureaucrats again while the inoculation campaign is a job for event organisers and logistic specialists.

it would for example make a lot more sense to have mobile inoculation stations, with the vaccines stored in half the truck, inoculation space in the other and to drive from street to street, rather than packing people together in big groups waiting to be vaccined.

2 ( +5 / -3 )

Talk is cheap. So many forcasts by the "experts". I dont beleive very many of them.

5 ( +6 / -1 )

I think herd immunity by October is just wishful thinking.

8 ( +12 / -4 )

Then again that wasn't a chimera grown in a CCP lab and there were no lockdowns then so the virus wasn't forced to mutate as much

COVID-19 is not a chimera either, and the scientific consensus is that it appeared naturally, the same as all the other highly pathogenic coronaviruses.

And lockdowns do not force the virus to mutate, anything that interrupts transmission has the opposite effect, the mutants that naturally appear have a much lower chance of surviving because they cannot be freely transmitted.

8 ( +14 / -6 )

Spreading stupid and completely improbable illusions also doesn’t make it so much better. First, speaking about results of vaccines that haven’t even delivered yet, makes no sense. Second, many of those vaccines , if they ever come and are applied, have , let’s say it very kindly, a reduced effectiveness especially in higher age groups, there where a effectiveness would have been needed, and also reduced effectiveness against known and still to appear new strains, mutations, variants. Forget anything like herd immunity or even a nearby situation, there isn’t such a thing ever to expect with significant or sufficient probability.

Isn't herd immunity how the Spanish Flu disappeared?

Then again that wasn't a chimera grown in a CCP lab and there were no lockdowns then so the virus wasn't forced to mutate as much.

-11 ( +3 / -14 )

Hansen is not saying that

Japan likely to hit COVID-19 herd immunity in Oct

is saying quite the opposite

Hansen said Japan will not reach a 75% inoculation rate, a benchmark for herd immunity, until around October

2 ( +4 / -2 )

The government has been disgracefully sluggish and should be looking to train volunteers to administer the vaccine and starting to reach out to people to get organised.

Training people like Britain did to administer the vaccine will require changing the law which

they will be sluggish to do as it doesn't benefit them. "Flexibility" or idioms like "desperate times call for

desperate measures" is alien to Kasumigaseki and Nagatacho.

If one year into the pandemic, creating drive through or mass testing sites something that even 3rd world

countries with one-millionth of the resources of Japan can do within a short space of time has been a herculean (taihen, taihen) task here, expecting the contrary with the rollout of the vaccine is sheer naivety.

8 ( +12 / -4 )

japan ordered 300 million doses for a population of 126 million. So, losing 100 million doses would still be fine. No?

-5 ( +1 / -6 )

i hate when an anonymous researcher says whatever and gets published anonymously.

this would never happen in a serious media outlet.

how can I confirm the sources?

16 ( +16 / -0 )

Is herd mentality the final solution?

4 ( +9 / -5 )

That's a ludicrous exaggeration for the coronavirus though, stop fear-mongering. It's very clear from the data available that for healthy people under 65 it causes flu-like symptoms and 'long covid' is very rare. It has a survival rate of something like 99.97%, and that's the instances we know about - if 'asymptomatic transmission' is a thing then it's probably even weaker.

There is no exaggeration nor fear mongering, vaccination is still much safer option, for anybody, than the natural infection. And proper scientific knowledge is the opposite promoting fear, that is a much more valid label for what antivaxxers and conspiracy loons do when inflating the risks of vaccines or attributing to them anything negative that could happen to a person as if the vaccines were meant to protect from all kinds of disease.

You are free to do as you please, but that is still a much more illogical decision, the natural infection has no long term studies either and even so there are already long term or permanent health problems related to it, none of which happened to vaccinated people. Reiterating, you can avoid vaccines if you want, but what you cannot do is to say it is logical to do it.

There are parts of the approval process that can be accelerated or skipped, but if the safety and efficacy trials are done properly there is no problem about it, 6 months of a phase III trial is not something that happened for the first time, it has been used for vaccines that were already on the market without any problem about safety or efficacy.

So no, your misleading and demonstrably mistaken information would be the one that would qualify as misinformation.

14 ( +23 / -9 )

Meaning herd immunity can still be achieved even though 1 in 4 opt out of the vaccine.

Actually no, what is left out of this article is the reports from the Japanese government that there are no plans as of now to vaccinate those here who are 16 or younger.

9 ( +10 / -1 )

It seems like the Japanese government had no plan to conclusively deal with coronavirus until last week. Someone maybe mentioned the word ワクチン in a meeting with the word olympics and then everyone started parroting it.

The problem is that no infrastructure is in place to distribute and administer this vaccine. The government has been disgracefully sluggish and should be looking to train volunteers to administer the vaccine and starting to reach out to people to get organised.

12 ( +14 / -2 )

You can "solve" a bone fracture by amputating the limb or letting it eventually heal in a weird shape doing nothing, but nobody would think strange that a medical book would instead have "reduction and immobilization" as the only option listed.

That's a ludicrous exaggeration for the coronavirus though, stop fear-mongering. It's very clear from the data available that for healthy people under 65 it causes flu-like symptoms and 'long covid' is very rare. It has a survival rate of something like 99.97%, and that's the instances we know about - if 'asymptomatic transmission' is a thing then it's probably even weaker.

I won't be taking the vaccine for several years at least so more data on it's safety can be assessed as even the makers of them aren't confident:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-astrazeneca-results-vaccine-liability-idINKCN24V2EN?edition-redirect=in

The makers are bypassing the usual approval process too:

https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained

If you want it, go get it. Don't spread misinformation about the virus though

-15 ( +10 / -25 )

Spreading stupid and completely improbable illusions also doesn’t make it so much better. First, speaking about results of vaccines that haven’t even delivered yet, makes no sense. Second, many of those vaccines , if they ever come and are applied, have , let’s say it very kindly, a reduced effectiveness especially in higher age groups, there where a effectiveness would have been needed, and also reduced effectiveness against known and still to appear new strains, mutations, variants. Forget anything like herd immunity or even a nearby situation, there isn’t such a thing ever to expect with significant or sufficient probability.

7 ( +9 / -2 )

Meaning herd immunity can still be achieved even though 1 in 4 opt out of the vaccine.

Only if you can keep track of the morons who don’t receive the vaccine.

6 ( +18 / -12 )

Downvote me all you want, just know that the World Health Organization changed the definition of herd immunity in October to remove natural infection from it. They now say that it can only be achieved through vaccination.

No, they say that it should be achieved by vaccination instead of exposing the people to unnecessary risks, that is very different. If loons and crooks are using the previous definition to "justify" their unethical recommendations to let lots of people die for the good of the community it is a duty of any institution devoted to public health to avoid giving those people ammunition. If you have two ways for an individual to gain immunity, one full of risks and other with proved safety then it should be obvious which one is the one that should be used for this purpose.

The WHO specifically explained the reasons for the change

https://www.11alive.com/article/news/verify/verify-changes-who-definition-herd-immunity-not-secret/507-f90c0199-c88e-4c66-8313-b4ae6e2a72ad

You can "solve" a bone fracture by amputating the limb or letting it eventually heal in a weird shape doing nothing, but nobody would think strange that a medical book would instead have "reduction and immobilization" as the only option listed.

19 ( +27 / -8 )

Japan could not develop own vaccines since numbers of patients were not enough for researches. Japan's pharmaceutical companies were also not enthusiastic. Once the epidemic is gone, their investment become waste. Japan has become a second class nation.

1 ( +10 / -9 )

It would surprise no one that Japan already achieve herd immunity.

-29 ( +5 / -34 )

Hansen said Japan will not reach a 75% inoculation rate, a benchmark for herd immunity, until around October, about two months after the close of the Summer Games.

the founder of British research firm Airfinity, Japan's health ministry did not immediately respond with comment on Airfinity's forecasts.

Did they not providing immediate respond because they already knew what Hansen said before?

10 ( +11 / -1 )

Downvote me all you want, just know that the World Health Organization changed the definition of herd immunity in October to remove natural infection from it. They now say that it can only be achieved through vaccination.

Yeah, yeah, I know, exceptions for this crisis, but changing a blanket definition?

11 ( +21 / -10 )

But problems seen in vaccine rollouts elsewhere stir doubt that Japan will get those supplies on time.

Japan just is a country where decisions are not taken in a timely fashion.Just like Fukushima where there was no leadership and the TEPCO engineers had to decide the fate of the country.

There is the ability to make a vaccine right here in Japan but there is inability to do so on a timeline to benefit the people here-仕方がないね

27 ( +28 / -1 )

Japan looks to be quite late in the game,

That’s what I was thinking from a long time ago.

All the government announcements and delays are just hiding the late delivery of vaccines which the government will not say.

Though Japan was in the race very could and could secure contracts with a lot of money, North America, Europe and many other countries will have the priority with western companies.

That’s how the game is.

9 ( +14 / -5 )

They're just desperate to convince the people that the Olympics can and should go through.

19 ( +27 / -8 )

Oh, so a startup CEO with a political science degree and co-founder who is a media guy, both of whom have no scientific experience or background, are now the go-to guys for interviews that are really just infomercials for their "sciencey" data programs "products" that are just consolidating science news in a feed that they sell?

Let's get the MyPillow guy an interview too about vaccine supply and demand...

38 ( +41 / -3 )

Japan looks to be quite late in the game,"

Everyone knows that!

Just a few days ago my boss said, my business trips to overseas will resume in August, but just if I am vaccined.

But yesterday he came and said, it looks like there are no overseas business trips possibles within 2021.

No vaccine, no overseas business trips!

27 ( +34 / -7 )

So the vacine is like 90 percent sure to keep you away from getting it?

I'll have three rounds to be 270 percent sure.

4 ( +15 / -11 )

Hansen said Japan will not reach a 75% inoculation rate

Meaning herd immunity can still be achieved even though 1 in 4 opt out of the vaccine.

Good news for people worried about any possible long term side effects.

-37 ( +15 / -52 )

Login to leave a comment

Facebook users

Use your Facebook account to login or register with JapanToday. By doing so, you will also receive an email inviting you to receive our news alerts.

Facebook Connect

Login with your JapanToday account

User registration

Articles, Offers & Useful Resources

A mix of what's trending on our other sites