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Japan may see resurgence of coronavirus cases, experts warn

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How sad that we see such sensationalist headlines "may" "could" "suggests" etc...

Then scroll down and see one (1!) name that says "we need to keep an eye on..."

But baseless fear-mongering has always gotten the clicks, so its what we have to put up with I guess..

3 ( +22 / -19 )

Remember, there is little scientific doubt about the efficacy of wearing masks to slow the spread of coronavirus.

-12 ( +9 / -21 )

It is a good question. Cases have declined and risen again around the world. I certainly do not have the answer but here is some food for thought.

The most obvious: I am not sure what the numbers will be but it will be interesting to see what happens in about 3 weeks. The crowds during the Silver Week holidays were enormous and almost like normal and I believe Japan has not had such crowds since the Pandemic started. Also it appeared when we were out that some folks were letting their guard down a bit.

The mutations occurring in the U.S. (and likely Europe) are certainly more infectious. This has been proven and just yesterday it was announced a new and even more virulent (however not more lethal) mutation was identified. I have no idea if this mutation is in Japan or not. It would seem plausible that it is since Japanese citizens have been travelling overseas and returning continuously now but I have not seen information if these more virulent mutations are in Japan at this time or not.

Finally there is one theory that east Asian countries (primarily China, Korea, and Japan) may have had much higher infection rates early on due to the extensive travel that persisted for a while between these countries. This may have resulted in a higher percentage of the populatoin of these countries having some immunity.

This virus certainly should not be taken lightly however it appears to be less lethal than originally thought. Although the mutations seem to be not more or less lethal the bigger worry would be that it mutates into a more lethal strain.

None of us here really knows the answers to these questions and even the experts in the field have yet to tackle these issues.

15 ( +16 / -1 )

Gotta ramp up the fear again. More and more people are realizing this virus is spreading but not nearly as dangerous for the vast majority of us as governments, the pharmaceutical industry and mainstream media wa t us to believe.

2 ( +16 / -14 )

Remember, there is little scientific doubt about the efficacy of wearing masks to slow the spread of coronavirus.

In fact there's none. Its a wing and a prayer as there's not one peer-reviewed scientific study that concludes masks help.

The Dutch have conducted the biggest study yet and were supposed to have released their findings in August. Still nothing. It could be they've been told to put a lid on findings that will embarrass a lot of people.

-7 ( +13 / -20 )

By December they'll not be saying "may", but "shoulda", "coulda", "woulda". Pandemics are what they are, and humans are who they are and, do what they do. Death and sickness inevitably follow in their wake. Too many people still underestimate the power of parasites like Covid-19.

5 ( +12 / -7 )

In Tokyo, the declining trend has bottomed out.

Meaning what? Tokyo has not managed to get out from under the first wave of infections, and with the upcoming flu season fast approaching, things are going to get even worse.

4 ( +12 / -8 )

If they (experts) definitely are able to predict a rise or not ,then the title ‘expert’ is valid.May, could or might don’t cut it...

2 ( +8 / -6 )

fear mongering!

6 ( +18 / -12 )

Experts say!

5 ( +8 / -3 )

By December they'll not be saying "may", but "shoulda", "coulda", "woulda". Pandemics are what they are, and humans are who they are and, do what they do. Death and sickness inevitably follow in their wake. Too many people still underestimate the power of parasites like Covid-19.

exactly

In Tokyo, the declining trend has bottomed out.

Meaning what? Tokyo has not managed to get out from under the first wave of infections, and with the upcoming flu season fast approaching, things are going to get even worse.

yup

4 ( +9 / -5 )

This is inevitable not only for Japan, for other countries as well. No matter how strict a country's quarantine measures are, cases will climb back up once you ease these restrictions because an economy and society cannot function properly unless people interact in some way. We need that vaccine or miraculously develop herd immunity if we really want to end this pandemic. Until then, we're in for a roller coaster of quarantine restrictions in the coming future.

8 ( +13 / -5 )

Resurgence at the beginning of Sep. Two weeks after a hell of a lot of people went home for obon.

Silver week. Last week I saw so many people from Kansai and other prefectures not wearing masks in my countryside town. I already mentioned in another post about 14 out 15 people in a convenience store not wearing a mask - all campers, fisherman and surfers from out of prefecture. See an expected rise of cases at the beginning/middle of October.

6 ( +12 / -6 )

And if don’t continue to open up, we will (not maybe,might could) see increased bankruptcies, poverty and suicides,

10 ( +15 / -5 )

Curious that some read the above headline and saw it as 'fear mongering'. I read the 'may see' and 'experts warn' and reminded myself this pandemic isn't over, but felt zero 'fear'. Trite but true that 'beliefs shape perceptions' so it comes as no surprise those most fearful of existence might have read the headline and then added to their 'fears' of existence. Not surprising those most fearful have created imaginary monsters like vaccines, alien reptiles, the deep state, 'the media' among so many others.

1 ( +11 / -10 )

This is inevitable not only for Japan, for other countries as well. No matter how strict a country's quarantine measures are, cases will climb back up once you ease these restrictions because an economy and society cannot function properly unless people interact in some way. We need that vaccine or miraculously develop herd immunity if we really want to end this pandemic. Until then, we're in for a roller coaster of quarantine restrictions in the coming future.

Agree.

I would add one more thing-

even with a vaccine, we need to learn to do things differently. This most likely will not be the last pandemic as we have seen ALOT in the last 20 years- Sars, H1N1 H3N1 Ebola Zica Dengu..

We also don't know how this virus will mutate- will the vaccine still work? what happens when someone contracts the flu and covid together? what will future waves of this virus look like?

We have to consider doing things differently altogether. Smaller classrooms with more social distancing and more frequent distance learning for older students. Working from home is very important to curb current and future outbreaks.. Dining out in booths where you are insulated from other guests. Small yet very effective gestures can go a long way.

My BIGGEST fear is that after an effective Virus is found, we just go back to doing the same thing we were doing before and forget that this all happened. That would be wrong.

9 ( +13 / -4 )

@PTownsend

reminded myself this pandemic isn't over, but felt zero 'fear'.

I agree!

Live your life by doing your best personal prevention and you are fine!

For me personally, I have more fear to get cancer, heart attack or again Influenza C, than get infected with the Corona Virus.

Because against the Corona Virus I can do simple and easy personal prevention.

Influenza, I take my vaccine every year!

But cancer or heart attack...ok...I don't smoke...maybe that is a prevention.

@Aly Rustom

*My BIGGEST fear is that after an effective Virus is found*

I guess you mean an effective Vaccine!

In this point I agree with you.

After an effective vaccine is found, everything will go back like before the pandemic.

But if the vaccine is really effective...why not?

-2 ( +6 / -8 )

Across the country, new infections totaled 3,287 in the seven days through Sept 22, down from 3,731 in the previous week.

Good job with obscuring the reality by not mentioning the number of test which has a strong bearing on the number of infections. If the number of tests was also down it is just logical that the number of positives will also fall.

Is it a ploy by the media and experts to always downplay and make no mention of Pcr test?

I guess Son Masayoshi 2,000yen Pcr test for anyone who wants one without limitations as to the number of times one can take a test will not be taken well by some vested interest who have been profiting from pcr testing now costing 20 to 40 thousand yen.

6 ( +11 / -5 )

It doesn’t take an expert to figure that out, it takes an ass in a field.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

"Remember, there is little scientific doubt about the efficacy of wearing masks to slow the spread of coronavirus."

Actually there's a fair bit - but we've covered this before

5 ( +10 / -5 )

Eventually everyone who's going to get it will have gotten it, the vast majority will recover and become immune and we can finally get on with rebuilding the economy.

4 ( +10 / -6 )

My BIGGEST fear is that after an effective Virus is found*

I guess you mean an effective Vaccine!

Yes Monty, Thank you.

After an effective vaccine is found, everything will go back like before the pandemic.

But if the vaccine is really effective...why not?

because we won't be prepared if the virus mutates into an even more deadly strain like the Spanish flu or if we get an even more deadly new virus.

There are many good lessons to be learned here such as more studying and working from home and more careful attention to hygene, and social distancing in eating establishments.

This will not only help us in beating this and future pandemics, but also help us in fighting normal flus and colds.

4 ( +7 / -3 )

Yeah, hype it up. Scare people in case they get happy.

In Canada news ( also a country with low incidence), they like to show an interview with a person in a hospital warning people. I’ve never once seen an article interviewing someone who has it explaining how they’re making their symptoms better and keeping their chin up.

Never once!

2 ( +11 / -9 )

My question is why isn't China's numbers going up and down at large numbers like the rest of the world? They either have a vaccine or they are lying about their numbers. Either way their economy is growing while other countries are still struggling and worrying about a difficult winter with COVID-19. Mission Accomplished?

4 ( +6 / -2 )

likely due to people taking off their face masks while speaking.

Riiiight.. not because paper masks do not seal around the nose and mouth, and not because they are usually worn for days/weeks at a time by people, then put on a desk or table when the mask-wearer comes up for air. And NOT because coronavirus was said to be highly transmittable on surfaces that have been touched?

Got it. The magic mask!

Finally there is one theory that east Asian countries (primarily China, Korea, and Japan) may have had much higher infection rates early on due to the extensive travel that persisted for a while between these countries. This may have resulted in a higher percentage of the populatoin of these countries having some immunity.

Ya don't say! Who would have thought that those living in Asian countries have been exposed to various coronaviruses since the dawn of time, and built appropriate immune responses to it. Ever had a mystery virus in Japan? They usually hit you for the first few years after you come. Think on it a little. Coronavirus is nothing new.

I'll take the red pill!

-4 ( +5 / -9 )

There needs to be more testing done daily for a true sense if Japan is a really good position with this virus. Roughly 4000 tests are done daily across Japan out of how many millions here that is not reality. When there are 30 and or 40 thousand tests (even that number is low) done daily across Japan for 2 or 3 months and or more and if the numbers still remain low we can have a confidence here regarding our safety, otherwise, not.

2 ( +6 / -4 )

Experts, either alarmists or downplayers, should be more reflective and accountable for what they have publicly said. We've been swayed and dismayed by so many failing, misleading and irresponsible predictions. Some "experts" remain elusive and dishonest. Their professional integrity is at stake.

-4 ( +2 / -6 )

How sad that we see such sensationalist headlines "may" "could" "suggests" etc...

Then scroll down and see one (1!) name that says "we need to keep an eye on..."

But baseless fear-mongering has always gotten the clicks, so its what we have to put up with I guess..

And if instead of scrolling down you had read all the stuff between the headline and the last paragraph you would have noticed the factual basis for those concerns being laid out.

Not sure what is wrong with the headline either. It says experts are warning of a potential resurgence in cases. The content of the article details the grounds for exactly those concerns. Its not sensationalist at all.

3 ( +5 / -2 )

A good way to assess the level of danger this virus poses is to monitor the levels of seriously ill people and deaths directly attributable to the virus, not those who die with COVID-19 in their systems but dies of another cause such as a heart attack, stroke, cancer etc.

According to https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/, the number of patients hospitalised for COVID-19 and those seriously ill with it (or have tested positive for it while seriously ill with something else - the stats don't clarify that) is staying pretty steady, even with Japan's very light "restrictions." For such a big population, that's pretty good. And Tokyo (prefecture), with 395 deaths and nothing in the way of concrete lockdowns other than a foreign border closure, has a lower death rate than Australia, which has had much tighter restrictions and higher testing rates (Tokyo prefecture's population is about 55% of Australia's (current deaths 861). Tokyo's death rate as a proportion of the prefectural population is 0.0028% vs Australia's (0.0034%). As for Japan in general, the popular is roughly 5x Australia's, and the national death toll is 1,520 - less than half.

For a country with such a high elderly population, Japan without concrete lockdowns seems to be doing a pretty good job compared to Australia, a country with restrictions all over the place. While there could be some other factors at play, such as biological susceptibility, Australia's major fear campaign and lockdowns don't seem to be as effective as Japan's half-arsed patchwork of measures.

-2 ( +6 / -8 )

I’ve never once seen an article interviewing someone who has it explaining how they’re making their symptoms better and keeping their chin up.

Exactly, long articles from "long haulers" without any stats as to the real level of incidence of this (inevitably some will be true, some hypochondria), all designed to strike fear into people and hasten the demise of civil liberties.

-1 ( +3 / -4 )

Do you people know that covid viruses existed for decades. Responsible for common flu, weaker than influenza viruses. Pcr test been used for decades as well. For decades not one single conclusive proof exists that viruses even exists... And pcr test never actually test for viruses they detect a RNA protein marker that is believed to be connected with a virus.. .

Wintertime is coming soon and so the common cold... Panic will be made... Overall death numbers not higher than previous years... Due diligence people... And wake up

-10 ( +2 / -12 )

Do you people know that covid viruses existed for decades. Responsible for common flu, weaker than influenza viruses. Pcr test been used for decades as well. For decades not one single conclusive proof exists that viruses even exists... And pcr test never actually test for viruses they detect a RNA protein marker that is believed to be connected with a virus.. .

Nothing written makes any sense.

There have been countless reports about different species of coronavirus that prove they exist from many decades ago, not only molecular techniques like PCR but anything you can think of, serologic proof, epidemiological proof, electron microscope pictures.

PCR test for viral RNA, from one specific strain. There is no such thing as a "RNA protein marker" RNA is not a protein, is a nucleic acid, and the sequences detected (2 or 3 simultaneously depending on the kind of test) can only come from this virus.

In fact there's none. Its a wing and a prayer as there's not one peer-reviewed scientific study that concludes masks help.

There have been several, what you may be confused is that there is no experimental studies directly measuring rates of infection with manipulation of the use of the mask, but that is not the only kind of scientific evidence that is used. For that matters there is no study either for the usefulness of washing your hands or keeping a distance, but following the recommendations have a deep impact on the rates of transmission that can be proved statistically. Epidemiological data is also scientific.

There is strong indication mask use is an important part of the effective recommendations that show an effect, same as washing your hands and isolating yourself. To say that this epidemiological conclusion is false you need at least the same amount and quality of data pointing to the opposite.

5 ( +8 / -3 )

workplaces have been reported since economic activity resumed

I didn't know economic activity had stopped. At least not in the Kansai area where I live. Osaka and Kobe were always business as usual.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

JJ JetplaneToday  02:06 pm JST

workplaces have been reported since economic activity resumed

I didn't know economic activity had stopped. At least not in the Kansai area where I live. Osaka and Kobe were always business as usual.

It hasn't stopped, but it has slowed down substantially. Hospitality/tourism has been hit hard, as have manufacturing and exports. There's a slow recovery, but we're not even close to being back to normal.

2 ( +5 / -3 )

Remember, there is little scientific doubt about the efficacy of wearing masks to slow the spread of coronavirus.

wrong there are at least 15 scientific trials that show wearing masks reduces the transmission of infectious diseases, theyre been worn for over a 100yrs, so people need to stop spreading dangerous propaganda

because it doesn't fit with your personal or political ideologies, science will dictate what is effective and what isnt. Its actually these dangerous ideologies is whats causing the pandemic to spread so quickly through certain countries.

10 ( +10 / -0 )

Expert opinion means nothing in Japan.

-4 ( +1 / -5 )

Until there is a vaccine of course there will be peaks and troughs of infections. It will rise in winter months and after holidays then drop off again. This is scaremongering reinforcing the myth that the virus has been eradicated or suppressed. It hasn’t. This is the new normal.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Pretty pathetic, the use of vague general common sense reasoning overloaded with weasel words to solidify these " experts" ineptitude.

I can do the same:

This winter might get cold, experts warn.

0 ( +6 / -6 )

Um, we don’t hire experts to tell us what “may” happen, because anything which “may” happen “may not” happen.

”May” is the word we use when we have no idea what will happen. An expert is supposed to be someone who knows what will happen.

0 ( +3 / -3 )

The referred to genetic variance is more infectious, but NOT more virulent, indeed it results in a milder infection with less systemic release of proinflammatory cytokines.

In reference to numerous postings and reflecting the article: Masks and social distancing are very effective means, as testified to by numerous scientific, peer-reviewed studies. One might also look at the 1968 Influenza Epidemic. Such measures were successfully employed until a vaccine was developed. One fully understands, influenza is not SARSCoV-2. But it is a virus and there was no vaccine available at the beginning of the contagion in 1968 - therein lies the similarity.

The second waves are typically more deadly than the onset of the virus.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Anyone looked at the figures in Sweden recently? Sweden did not lock down its economy or enforce masks or social distancing rules. As a result the virus spread rapidly, many people were infected, and the fatality rate was quite high, surpassing neighboring countries.

But that was then. Now there is little growth in new cases, and the fatality rate has collapsed, it has been more than a week since there was a Swedish COVID fatality. It seems that Sweden is not seeing a secondary surge in cases or fatalities. Some of those countries which criticized Sweden’s handling of the pandemic are now seeing their own infection and fatality rates surpassing Sweden, despite their lockdowns and other regulations.

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

May” is the word we use when we have no idea what will happen. An expert is supposed to be someone who knows what will happen.

No they aren’t. Nobody has a crystal ball that can predict future events. Experts can narrow down the probabilities of certain things happenning in most fields, which is extremely useful, but they don’t have magic powers of prediction nor is that a reasonable standard to hold them to.

An expert on preventing fires can’t tell me with certainty whether my house will burn down some day, but if he tells me it is at higher risk of burning if I don’t install a smoke detector I’d be a fool to ignore that just because he can’t tell me my house will burn down.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

I read the 'may see' and 'experts warn' and reminded myself this pandemic isn't over, but felt zero 'fear'.

I felt zero fear because I have become numb to media scare mongering. The part of the headline you should pay attention to is "warn". Why not say, surmise, believe, suggest or some other more neutral word? Clicks through fear, that's why.

Next pay a bit of attention to "cases". We can take it to mean "new cases" but it really should have been clear about that. Since it wasn't the mind wonders to things like "deaths" and "severe cases". This word usage is subtle, but these people are experts at using and abusing it. Some people are catching on enough to see it finally. Others aren't still.

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

Anyone looked at the figures in Sweden recently? Sweden did not lock down its economy or enforce masks or social distancing rules. As a result the virus spread rapidly, many people were infected, and the fatality rate was quite high, surpassing neighboring countries. 

But that was then. Now there is little growth in new cases, and the fatality rate has collapsed, it has been more than a week since there was a Swedish COVID fatality. It seems that Sweden is not seeing a secondary surge in cases or fatalities. Some of those countries which criticized Sweden’s handling of the pandemic are now seeing their own infection and fatality rates surpassing Sweden, despite their lockdowns and other regulations.

Total fatalities Sweden: 5880 (2 in last 24 hours)

Total fatalities Norway: 270 (3 in last 24 hours)

Cases in last 24 hours Sweden: 533

Cases in last 24 hours Norway: 129

Not really sure how you reach the conclusion that Sweden is coming out ahead in comparison to neighboring countries, measured either cumulatively or just based on r3cent performance it is doing demonstrably worse by a long shot. Norway is the closest comparable country, but comparisons with other Scandinavian countries yield similar results.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

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