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Japan's population falls below 125 mil; down for 13th straight year

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Japan's population reach its peak in 2009-2010 then in constant decline until now, it's already minus 5.4 million compared to now.

2024 122,631,432

2023 123,294,513

2022 123,951,692

2020 125,244,761

2015 127,250,933

2010 128,105,431

With inflation and rising price, don't expect people to have more baby in Japan

-10 ( +27 / -37 )

I will contribute with +1.

Good luck to you fellas.

11 ( +21 / -10 )

2024 122,631,432

2023 123,294,513

2022 123,951,692

2020 125,244,761

2015 127,250,933

2010 128,105,431

@sakurasuki

Thank you for the informative research.

I have noticed that your posts typically receive immediate downvotes from a handful of readers, regardless of the content of your comments.

I am sorry to see that. There is nothing in the above data, and many of your posts, that should generate such a visceral negative reaction.

-8 ( +24 / -32 )

I'm fine with the population decline as long as the government doesn't try to ebb the decline by importing crime.

-18 ( +13 / -31 )

Insects and mammals undergo similar population cycles.

Why should humans be an exception?

Mother Nature is indifferent to our financial status, living conditions, or societal norms. Many countries are currently experiencing a population reduction.

When a species reaches a certain number of individuals, its population begins to decline.

In nature, including our financial activities, permanent growth is a fallacy.

Any attempt to counteract this cycle is likely futile.

So, I invite you to laugh—bwahaha ha—and savor your ice cream with joy.

-4 ( +17 / -21 )

single-person households were forecast to account for 44.3 percent of the 52.61 million households in Japan in 2050, with nearly half of them made up of people aged 65 or older.

Among single older people, about 45% of women are classified as being in poverty. For men, its about 11%.

Its great that society offers women more choices, but if it still pays them less, they will be less prepared for old age, which an increasing number are entering on their own.

14 ( +19 / -5 )

The falling population is not the main problem. Where the population is falling is more important. Tohoku and other rural areas will be near ghost areas populated by the old. BUT Japan inc will be forced to spend billions keeping services in those areas. Schools for 2 kids, train lines that lose money etc.

12 ( +14 / -2 )

Its only going to accelerate from here.

Foreign workers and students who had been in Japan for more than 90 days were counted in the overall population figure, according to the ministry.

this is Japan trying to fudge their numbers and make the decline less precipitous than it actually is.

-14 ( +16 / -30 )

While there are challenges, there are certainly clear benefits of the lowering population. More living space for all, less competition for jobs, schools, universities and housing. And excellent for the environment and nature.

4 ( +16 / -12 )

@Mr Kipling Look at the map from a NHK Japanese language article. It's not only Tohoku and Hokkaido.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20240412/K10014420151_2404121746_0412174824_02_05.jpg

6 ( +7 / -1 )

Blame the politicos warped desire to centralize power and governance in Tokyo.

Failure to support outlying regions is part of Japan’s problem.

-2 ( +10 / -12 )

Declining demographics and growing debt. A recipe for disaster

10 ( +15 / -5 )

With that yenie heading towards 160 per $ expect inflation to hit even harder. Prices going way up, taxes going up, pension went to this year again, salaries still down the f there, haken gaisha-in being 40% of the workforce in the nation, etc. It's obvious people don't wanna have kids.

5 ( +15 / -10 )

The reality is it's not about stopping the population decline - it's about managing it well so it doesn't spiral into a downward trajectory of shrinking tax base, redundant jobs as is the result in under-populated towns where schools etc have closed, derelict regions and a shortage in elderly care facilities and other necessary assistance for the silver citizens/residents.

It wouldn't matter if Japan's population fell to 120 million or less - it's the demographics that count and too many silvers don't make a good economy despite some talk about how their presence will make a boom in industries for the elderly. Japan needs good governance at all levels, not just national but like govts in developed countries around the world, allocation of resources is harmed by cronyism, allocation to pet projects and contracts for those in the network etc. Just like all those middle men, consultants and other groups in western societies.

And regional revival can't happen in many of Japan's regions because they depend on agricultural practices that won't be the best way to do farming in the years to come, very few people want to work in agriculture anyway, and the abundance of old/older people there just don't have the flexibility or youth to do things a different way and create different models of business. The answer is not putting more public money into old models but some hard decisions plus creativity and cutting out the people in different levels of government benefiting financially.

Too much capital and social capital is invested and located in Tokyo and to change that will take time as well as politicians of vision with corporations ready to change their practices. Not sure if it can be done but I'm sure about one thing - western style immigration aint the answer even if the immigrants are not the usual economic refugees and asylum seekers using the outdated UN rules to enter countries and live there without paying the way true immigrants do.

7 ( +10 / -3 )

Also private helpers for elderly where you don’t work for peanuts but privately outside of the insurance reimbursement system seems promising.

-2 ( +2 / -4 )

Folks the most important numbers to note are below:

The number of people aged from zero to 14 fell 329,000 to about 14.17 million, accounting for 11.4 percent of the total population, the lowest ever. Those aged between 15 and 64 dropped 256,000 to about 73.95 million, 59.5 percent of the total population.

THIS is what will continue to drive Japans population down, the old folks aging out will be insanely costly, the lack of newborns is the nail in the coffin!

5 ( +7 / -2 )

Meanwhile, the foreign national population rose 243,000 to about 3.16 million.

OK, but how many Japanese people left the country in search of job/life opportunities?

3 ( +4 / -1 )

Sorry to say buy it is an infernal spiral that can't be stopped for at least two generations.

I n view of Japan pyramid of age, even if all women from now would get 4 kids (!), population would level off only in about 50 years to 100 million.

No children no future.

Maths and social sciences seem not to concern politician unfortunately.

-6 ( +7 / -13 )

Polygamy will make Japan great again.

-24 ( +3 / -27 )

Polygamy will make Japan great again.

Nobody here could afford it.

-4 ( +13 / -17 )

Population is too dense for japan. It should be reduced below 80 millions considering the land area.

-10 ( +3 / -13 )

Great for the environment terrible for the economy etc.

-1 ( +5 / -6 )

Quality, not quantity.

Seriously,folks,down here in the Ryukyus, people tend to still have three or more kids.

A lot of awamori does not a happy,well-adjusted family make.

-1 ( +4 / -5 )

even if all women from now would get 4 kids (!), population would level off only in about 50 years to 100 million.

Where do you get that from? A fertility rate of 4, massively higher than replacement level, would lead to Japan having slightly less than a billion people in 2074.

4 ( +7 / -3 )

You don't need more people. You don't need more power. You need a distribution of power. This is at its basest, an issue about reproductive strategies and mitigations. As a whole, men competing is the issue. Granted, women have their biological impératives. But given the chance, this is about the very intrinsic pitfalls of the socioeconomical system Japan lives in, and so many other countries. "Oh boy, do I detect a Commie?". I'm not going to argue at all, but those are the facts. We live in a finite world, with finite resources. It's plain as day. Naturally, everyone wants a piece of the cake. What's happening here is that, there's not enough biologically diverse or top quality genetics locally to support the demands, and vice versa. You've turned it into a dichotomy. The gender balances are tipped tremendously. With Japan, it's a very homogenous society. They all argue about race, and naturally humans are...humans. "Stick with your own kind". There's no solution to this, within our current social, political, economical norms. It'll keep being a parasite until it's sucked out, replaced, come to a tipping point where at least the majority will realize the crucial danger, which is themselves, and either they adapt and change for the better, or think that the better is the same and risk collapse. That's what's happening right now, no matter how much one wants to bury their head in the sand. Population decline, infertility rates, political dogmatic wars, etc... the old status quo wants to usher in a totalitarian mode, yet it's pushing a different message about democracy and peace... the same goes for our regression despite technological improvements, etc... our sociological progress has, in fact, regressed into the tribalistic, primitive state. If we continue to prop up, support one side, and neglect the other, and continuously compete, it'll be worse than the "Tragedy Of The Commons". At the moment, alot of Japanese people are sort of migrating externally to other countries, to sort out their fertility issue where they consume the resources out from other countries whilst trying to do better to get those resources back into their own country. It's reductionalist view, but this is akin to a ant colony using out its resources and establishing outposts. The key issue is here, race, dating standards and economics. Sorry but, the truth is, if both genders in that culture can't change to be more accommodating for whatever issue it is (such as lookism, and that's a scientific biological fact) in terms of disparity, and discriminatory constants and factors... things are not going to get better. Unless Japan can grow clone chambers, mandatory IVF and sperm fertility donations, acceptance from females and better work conditions and work cultures (an optimal one not based on the West or the east but a hybridized package), even then with that contingency plan, the fundamentals of human sexual relationships and discriminative attitudes HAVE to be changed in order to save the population level. Otherwise we go down this fatalistic, nihilistic path that it's about the survival of the fittest, prettiest, and it's the "better we have less competition". That's absolutely great, it's more pressing rather that it's the equity of human touch and needs getting met. Research more contraceptive methods, more legalisation of well... care "outlets", more dating incentives, and debt forgiveness. A dichotomy between choices is never the answer, but so many people think that it is. It's even worse when moral ethics about sexuality regresses back into it. We're humans, we need to get our needs met whilst sustainably and self independently relying on the external environment, ie nature and other humans. The more we push against, the more it pushes back. If it was ever one world, one race, one system, one of it all, therell inevitably be huge civil wars and conflicts within that system, or it leads to this. Thus, massive internal change is needed.

-7 ( +0 / -7 )

It's O.K.

The future is....Japan becomes a satellite state of a particular other Asian country fond of basketball shoes.

A small group of Wealthy Pure blood Japanese families exist as the upper/ruling class.

Middle and lower classes procreate to provide the 'working class'.

-3 ( +4 / -7 )

I think most JT posters live in Tokyo or other major cities and are unaware of how dire things are out here in inaka.

As the Sweet's Steve Priest sang in Blockbuster, "We just haven't got a clue what to do". My message to all the young Japanese with ambitions who are reading this -- get out while you still can!

-5 ( +4 / -9 )

The post by Mr Feng had some interesting ideas but they're all pretty mixed up and messy just like that cotton candy yakitori I heard about which a restaurant is really selling somewhere in Tokyo.

No, the problem in Japan aint 'lookism' or whatever. Of course Japan has its own unique circumstances but its fertility problem is exactly the same as that of the UK, Europe, Australia/NZ, the US and Canada - based on the fact that women have choices and they aren't choosing to have big families or replacement level families generally, with their partners having the same thinking.

The differences between Japan and other developed countries is that those countries have mass immigration to keep their fertility rates at a steady level, immigrants/refugees from the 3rd world and developing countries usually have 4 or more children, and the single mother lifestyle is acceptable and encouraged in some western countries, aided by generous welfare payments.

These factors are not always or necessarily positive in their outcomes and Japan will never accept all three. This whole issue about population tends to revolve around how 'wrong' Japan is but this society prioritises social cohesion and values that its population share in common. Most Japanese can enjoy the liberality of western societies but don't want all the conflicting ways of life and values plus the more toxic aspects in their own society.

Japan needs strategies for managing population decline while staying one of the leading economies. Cities like Osaka, Kobe, Nagoya and Fukuoka should get the investment and resources to attract people who usually move to Tokyo, for example. There's way more to this issue than fertility rates.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

A declining population is fantastic news in an already grossly over populated country like Japan and indeed the world.

-6 ( +2 / -8 )

@dev/random

It seems commenters are digging their own grave.

Let's do maths.

This year number of women born : less than 400,000.

About 10% of infertility rate in general population https://www.med.or.jp/english/activities/pdf/2009_01/023_028.pdf

All children living to adult age for the next 25 years (very favorable hypothesis) makes with 4 children each 720, 000 in all.

Each year, increase of 720,000 (instant births + more than half are normally boys + no deaths, so again highly favorable impossible hypotheses).

25 x 720,000 = 18 millions increase.

Foreseeable deaths in Japan during those next 25 years (people other 64 years, again favorable hypothesis since average Japanese life expectancy is 85) : 29.1% of 125 million = 37 million

Those new women for the next 25 years repeat 4 children.

10% infertility : 720,000 makes 650,000 women to have 4 children :

Thus additional 1.3 million x 25 = 32 million.

Japanese between 39 to 64 to die : about 27 million, using latest census:

https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/jinsui/2022np/index.html#:~:text=Thepopulationunder15years,percentofthetotalpopulation

Total in 50 years :

123 +18-37+32-27= 109 million

This is a highly favourable estimate so the 100 million mark would be achieved easily.

That with 4 children for all women who can have children. All of them !

Facts are cruel but maths is is not.

-5 ( +0 / -5 )

Facts are cruel but maths is is not.

You need to do it correctly, though.

Each year, increase of 720,000 (instant births + more than half are normally boys + no deaths, so again highly favorable impossible hypotheses).

25 x 720,000 = 18 millions increase.

You are using a simple multiplication, either forgetting or deliberately ignoring that fertility is the factor in an exponential equation, one that can swing both ways as an exponential decrease (as we see right now) or an exponential increase (like it would happen in your example).

Your calculation does not even hold up to superficial scrutiny, without going into a calculation. If every woman had four children, she would not only replace herself and her partner with offspring, but doubly so. Even accounting for other factors, a fertility rate of 4 would mean massive population growth. (Compare and contrast: at 1.3 Japan's population is slightly shrinking, the replacement level fertility rate in most countries is around 2.1).

Interestingly, for a rough estimate, the fertility rate can be taken pretty much directly into the percent value of population growth. Your highly hypothetical fertility rate of 4 would mean, all other things (mortality and migration) being equal, a population growth of about 4% every year. Calculate a population growth of 4% over 50 years, you end up with a factor of 1.04^50 =~ 700% and just shy of 900 million people in Japan by 2074.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Your highly hypothetical fertility rate of 4 would mean, all other things (mortality and migration) being equal, a population growth of about 4% every year. Calculate a population growth of 4% over 50 years, you end up with a factor of 1.04^50 =~ 700% and just shy of 900 million people in Japan by 2074.

I'm terribly sorry, I jumped the gun and forgot to include the mortality rate. With a fertility rate of 4 and a mortality rate of of 1.3% (let's go with an unusually high one like in pandemic times), the equation changes to: ( 1 + 0.04 - 0.013 ) ^ 50 = 3.788, and the number of people in Japan in 2074 changes to only 473 million. A significant error on my side, sorry again.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

grossly over populated country like Japan

Japan in not over populated, at all. You need to get out of central Tokyo more often.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

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