Japan seeks to contain economic impact of virus

Japan had 20 confirmed cases as of Saturday

Which is 10 times what it was a week ago. Worryingly the same rate of increase as in China. Just hope it's not 200 cases this time next week.

As long as you have perfect immune system, you have nothing to worry about.

Ok great, glad we all have 'perfect' immune systems. I'll just make some extra kale shakes.

The virus will die in 14 days by itself. 

Nope. Incubation time is up to 14 days. How long it takes for the body to clear the virus after symptoms appear is far from clear.

Pretentious people are more dangerous than uneducated ones.

You sound both pretentious and uneducated. Please stop.

Let me see:

Holders of passports from Hubei can’t enter Japan but Japanese passport holders can.

So, if you have a Hubei-issued passport but have worked in unaffected (so far) Brazil for the last 20 years, you can’t enter Japan but if you’re Japanese who has worked in Wuhan for the last 20 years, you can.

I guess asking questions about last visited country and duration of said visit is haaaaard for immigration officials.

Olympic 2020 will have to be postponed or cancelled if the pandemic does not cease until sometime around May.

Akie; Japan must first identify the source of infection, or it will be too late.

Aren't some of those cases brought into Japan by JGov?

What if instead of closing border to keep people away, open camps to keep people there for at least 14 days before they move on to other parts of the nation ?

With 2.6 million tourists a month, just what 'camps' are there, to house them for 14 days?

Basically, developed economies to not depend on the tourist trade - that's normally for small or impoverished countries that need capital. It's an unstable source of income, as we see now - and doesn't contribute to a country's development the way a real industry such does. What's Abe's next idea for Japan. Growing bananas? A rubber plantation?

Huh, what happened to 4, just last Sunday. Today Japan had 20 confirmed cases as of Saturday

According to the South China Morning Post the first first death outside of China reported in the Philippines.

As reported a Chinese citizen traveled via Hong Kong to Manila.

Japan please take notice.

Someone needs to shout at Abe there's more important things than tourism bucks.

There are good and bad aspects in globalism. This is badness of the globalism revealed.

Set aside tourism for a moment- global supply chains depend heavily on the free movement of goods to and from China. Until now, most of this outbreak has occurred during Chinese New Year holidays, so businesses we already planning to not receive products and components from China. But from next week, when things were supposed to return to normal, we'll really see the economic impact of this outbreak on manufacturing and consumer goods. Buckle up, folks.

Interesting study that appeared in the Lancet two days ago, one of the foremost scientific medical journals:

*In our baseline scenario, we estimated that [...] 75,815 individuals have been infected in Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020. We estimated that in the baseline scenario, Chongqing, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen had imported 461 (227–805), 113 (57–193), 98 (49–168), 111 (56–191), and 80 (40–139) infections from Wuhan, respectively. If the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV were similar everywhere domestically and over time, we inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–2 weeks.*

Followed by:

*Given that 2019-nCoV is no longer contained within Wuhan, other major Chinese cities are probably sustaining localised outbreaks. Large cities overseas with close transport links to China could also become outbreak epicentres, unless substantial public health interventions at both the population and personal levels are implemented immediately. Independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of presymptomatic cases and in the absence of large-scale public health interventions. Preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment globally.*

If this is anywhere near accurate (there is uncertainty, but the fact this appeared in the Lancet certainly lends credibility), then you can 100% add Tokyo to the list of large overseas cities with close transport links to China that could become outbreak epicenters.

After all, asymptomatic transmission has been confirmed in multiple cases, and incubation times can be up to 14 days. If travel from major cities in China proceeds unhindered, asymptomatic cases will inevitably end up in Japan, and I find it hard to imagine a scenario in which Tokyo does not become a major outbreak center.

So, want to contain the economic impact of this virus? Save the olympics. Cancellation would be a disaster of unprecedented proportions, but what if Tokyo gets hit hard in weeks to months from now? Good luck containing that in the most populated metropolitan area on earth.

In other words, now is the time to follow the USA, Australia, and Singapore and temporarily bar all foreigners who have recently visited any place in China.

It sucks for everyone, but it may be the only public health intervention that could prevent this from spreading in Japan.

source: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext

The consumption tax will need to be raised again....

The source of the infection has yet to be determined.

Certainly a market in Wuhan but from which animal is still unknown...

The source of the infection has yet to be determined.

But most likely, patient '0' will be from Wuhan. I'm rather surprised the Wuhan biohazard lab theory incompetence has not been explored more by journalists.

The CCP has been extremely quiet (undefensive) on the wet market, poor hygiene of Chinese culture theory, which can only mean they are hiding something else.

On top of this, they were very quick to punish the doctors who discovered that this is a new virus, not SARS.

It would seem that the best way forward is to ensure the safety of citizens before worrying about economic impact.

In other words, now is the time to follow the USA, Australia, and Singapore and temporarily bar all foreigners who have recently visited any place in China.

This ^ is a very sad state of affairs, because it paints a picture of countries unilaterally taking measures to contain outbreak.

BUT, when the WHO issues an emergency declaration and asks countries to continue leaving their countries exposed without relevant advice on containment, it is really encouraging unilateral responses.

Lessening the economy impact, lol, I look forward for the cancellation of the Olympics

The coronavirus is no joke.

In 2017, in the U.S., 14.3 people died per 100,000 who caught the flu. That is a death rate of about 0.0143%.

By contrast, the coronavirus has so far had a death rate in excess of 2%. That means per 100,000 who catch it, more than 2,000 will die, as opposed to 14.3 for the common flu. Another way to look at it is, if everyone in Japan were to catch the new virus, population 127 million, over 2.5 million would die.

The economic impact of the uncontrolled spread of the coronavirus on Japan - over 2.5 million deaths - would be worse than the economic impact of taking steps to try to prevent a pandemic.

Another consideration is that the death rate has so far been 2+%, but that is with the benefit of modern medical practices. If the virus spreads uncontrolled into the general population, health services will be overwhelmed, and the death rate will almost certainly go much higher than 2%.

My mom used to tell me stories of what it was like to live through the Spanish Flu of 1918-1919, in New York. She said that there were so many deaths that the city had to hire horse drawn carts to go down the streets and pick up bodies from the sides of the streets.

I can get behind the ninja masks. Sickness or not... ninja masks! c'mon man

Honestly, I am no more worried about this than about all the other scares that come and go. But I have an increasing conviction that there is a lot they are not telling us. I spent the whole SARS crisis in all the epicenters. China closing off a major city? All these countries restricting borders? Nothing close to this reaction has happened before. So it makes me wonder if the people in the know are holding back on what they really know.

Unless ALL foreigners who have been in or transited through ANY location in mainland China for the past 14 days are not banned from entry, Japans economy will suffer hugely. This pandemic is now in every region of China, so banning flights from Hubei is not enough .

A temporary shutdown of tourism for 2 months or so is nothing compared to the alternative.

The evil Xi Jinping was in a crowded market place in the early days of the contagion saying "All is well." Now he has disappeared and is probably in an "undisclosed location."

Does Japan have a Consulate in Hibei……..if so there may be some Japanese who have passports that are issued there...…… Mine was issued in Tokyo & I am not Japanese...…...

The Olympic is like 6 months away so it will be OK. However, the sakura will bloom in a little over a month. The tourism industry in Japan must be keeping their fingers crossed now.

Which is 10 times what it was a week ago. Worryingly the same rate of increase as in China. Just hope it's not 200 cases this time next week.

Pretty sure it won't be linear. If we see only 2000 cases (or less) it will be very good news indeed.

What if instead of crying like a baby, just mass produce vaccines and sell it to China at fair price ? Business is business.

Good idea Akie, but it is said to take a minimum of 1 year for a vaccine.

Bats possible source of coronavirus, either bats in caves in Yunnan let out of hell or bats in Chinese cuisine. Chinese woman eating bat soup. WARNING: dead bat head shown, NOT for the queasy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GW5eZ2dEPhI

144 in my case

By contrast, the coronavirus has so far had a death rate in excess of 2%. That means per 100,000 who catch it, more than 2,000 will die, as opposed to 14.3 for the common flu.

It looks logical but who are the 2% that died from it. If they are all vulnerable ones like infants, elderlies or people with weak immune systems then it is just like the flu. Healthy people that catchs it will recover. There is still not enough data to draw a conclusion.

The opportunity is there, but Abe missed it.

Yes he missed it years ago. History from recent attacks on Japanese factories and South Korean business interests in China says, trade with China carries its own special risks.

The tourism trade with China carries special risks, now it is even more special. BUT, Japan has missed the chance to price that risk.

It is likely China's economy will be in tatters because of the severity and fatality in China. Japan's economy is still relatively intact because of containment of the outbreak here.

Will the two economies converge at some point because of miss pricing risks ?

Apparently the passengers on the cruise ship was tested within an hour or so.

Suggests the Abe government reprice the departure tax to now include an arrival coronavirus test.

But in any case, it might be too little late.

dk9000, hahaha, you know nothing about immune system, do you ? In 14 days, the virus will cause immune reaction and get itself killed, plus it will die if doesn't get into human bodies.

1glenn, hahaha, dk9000 didn't get you, did he ? "Another way to look at it is, if everyone in Japan were to catch the new virus, population 127 million, over 2.5 million would die." The problem is that it is impossible for everyone in Japan to catch the new virus.

AkieToday  07:59 am JST

Japanese have the same or similar eating habits as Chinese.

No they don't. Otherwise we would have seen some virus start in Japan related to their eating habits.

Let me see:

Holders of passports from Hubei can’t enter Japan but Japanese passport holders can.

Let me see,

A Japanese passholder holder is a Japanese citizen, so he has the right to come back Japan. A Chinese national with issued in Hubei does not have the same rights to come to Japan.

Unfortunately, being a leader of a great nation doesn't make one a great leader.

The opportunity is there, but Abe missed it.

What if instead of taking back citizens, Japan send in all necessary goods to make sure they are safe in China ? Risk is minimized.

What if instead of closing border to keep people away, open camps to keep people there for at least 14 days before they move on to other parts of the nation ? If they can't pay for the services, they will not come.

What if instead of crying like a baby, just mass produce vaccines and sell it to China at fair price ? Business is business.

Wrong is wrong, as simple as that.

Sounds good, but it is done in opposite ways.

As long as you have perfect immune system, you have nothing to worry about. The virus will die in 14 days by itself. Pretentious people are more dangerous than uneducated ones.

since1981, there is no doubt that Abe govt made a huge mistake by taking back people from the risk zones. Having said that, Japan still needs to examine the sources of the virus, because Japanese have the same or similar eating habits as Chinese.

JonathanJo, be smart, would you ?

Japan must first identify the source of infection, or it will be too late.

China may be not the only source of virus.