Japan lifts megaquake warning

‘In the past have come in pairs’….and those pairs have, at times been 2 years apart. If this warning (not based on any real science) was really necessary then shouldn’t it last for at least another 2 years to cover the ‘pair’ criteria?!

Not really @Gazman as last weeks quake wasn’t strong enough to be deemed a mega quake on the scale mentioned in the past. An advisory seems sufficient to me and people should take precautions as always. Also the pair in question was the only one as far as I can tell and two years apart is a rather long timeframe.

Japan set to lift megaquake warning

Only hours after you posted the story titled “Japanese worried and confused after first-ever megaquake advisory”

Now that’s genuinely worrisome and confusing!

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https://japantoday.com/category/national/japanese-are-worried-and-confused-after-first-ever-megaquake-advisory.-what-does-it-mean

Some earthquake scientists will say there is/possibly a relation to full moon and typhoons happening around the same time. So don’t let you guard down quite yet. Full super moon coming on Monday. Good thing with this mega quake warning is that it got many people to get their emergency supplies in order. Let’s hope is was all for naught.

Someone: 'LOOK OUT!'

Everyone: 'For what? When?'

Someone: 'I don't know.'

Next time the people will disregard of any Mega earthquake alarm. Not a good idea of yelling : Wolves,wolves !

Next time the people will disregard of any Mega earthquake alarm. Not a good idea of yelling : Wolves,wolves !

Next time, the scientific will do the same and you better listen to them.

People should stop living in fear and specially stop watching all that fear mongering TV and TV shows that acted like the End of the World is coming.

 If this warning (not based on any real science) was really necessary then shouldn’t it last for at least another 2 years to cover the ‘pair’ criteria?!

The advisory has perfectly relevant scientific data to support it, ignoring something does not make that something dissappear, and no, the data does not say a waiting period of 2 years is necessary.

Next time the people will disregard of any Mega earthquake alarm.

For a relatively mild advisory that mostly said that people should just refresh their awareness and general preparation for a big earthquake? not really likely, specially because this came after an specially strong earthquake that does not happen frequently. It is not like this will happen every month.

On the other hand,when does government -approved scaremongering become 'terrorism'?

Is the warning not based on science and contradicts what the experts in the field have to say? if not then it is not scaremongering. People do not live in fear of scientific information about risks, at least not those without a systematic antiscientific bias.

I feel so sorry for all those who cancelled travel, especially families with limited holiday time because of school schedules who were going to use this obon week to reunite with distant grandparents and relatives.

Those are memories lost.

I has been interesting seeing the comments on this and other articles about the earthquake caution.

It is a perfect dictionary of psychological traits that pop up every time, that I am sure the scientists were debating about when they decided whether on not to make the announcement. The same happened during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Next time you post maybe check one of these cognitive biases to see if they apply to you.

Normalcy bias -  It leads people to believe that things will always function the way they normally have, despite warnings or evidence to the contrary. During emergencies, people with normalcy bias might downplay the seriousness of the situation, thinking "it's not that bad" or "things will get back to normal soon."

Hindsight Bias: Also known as the "knew-it-all-along" effect, this bias occurs when people perceive events as having been more predictable after they have already occurred. As with this caution, now that it is over, people might downplay its severity, thinking that it was obvious it wouldn’t be as bad as experts warned, even though it wasn't obvious at the time.

Outcome Bias: This is a bias where people judge a decision based on the outcome rather than the quality of the decision at the time it was made. In the case of this earthquake, if the outcome turns out less severe than expected, people might incorrectly assume that the initial response was overblown or unnecessary. - Very common on these articles.

Dunning-Kruger Effect: This is a cognitive bias where people with low ability, knowledge, or experience in a field overestimate their competence and dismiss expert advice. In the context of earthquakes, someone might reject expert predictions or safety advice because they mistakenly believe they understand the subject better than they do.

There are others such as Confirmation Bias or Cognitive Dissonance.

Good luck virusrex. You are battling against a smorgasbord of psychology in your daily efforts.

The warning was detrimental to tourism

Frightening. 7.1 quake is pretty big. When I was in Tokyo in May, there was about a 4.9 to 5.0 quake in the middle of the night. I was on the 12th floor of a hotel and felt the building swaying back and forth. Not comforting to be in a tall building.

The 2011 tsunami sent three reactors into meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear plant, causing Japan's worst post-war catastrophe and the world's most serious nuclear accident since Chernobyl.

AFP is "forgetting" the tsunami that killed +12,000 person.

Fukushima did, exactly, ZERO direct death.

So the "worst post-war catastrophe" is it Fukushima or the tsunami?

It's high risk when issuing such an advisory. People don't know how to respond, and it will be a disaster if such a megaquake hits after the advisory has been lifted.

I would not recommend such warnings again. It's simply too difficult through scientific means to foreshadow a megaquake.

It's high risk when issuing such an advisory.

The risk do not drop just because the experts do not issue an advisory.

People don't know how to respond,

A huge part of the content on internet, media, etc. are recommendations about what to do to be prepared for an earthquake.

and it will be a disaster if such a megaquake hits after the advisory has been lifted.

How so? will people suddenly forget everything about awareness and preparation unless the advisory is active? the warning has been clearly about an elevation of risk, not about a prediction of an earthquake at some specific time. The warnings are also very clear about this risk being present all the time, it is just considered higher after a relatively big earthquake but it is not like the risk would disappear afterwards.

I would not recommend such warnings again. It's simply too difficult through scientific means to foreshadow a megaquake.

A trivial example, but

Imagine you’re in a busy shopping mall. The security knows from experience that there's a higher chance of pickpockets being active because of the large crowds and distracted shoppers. They might issue a warning, saying, "Be extra careful with your belongings today."

Some people might think, "Why issue a warning? You can’t predict exactly when or where a pickpocket will strike, so what’s the point?" But the purpose of the warning isn’t to predict a specific theft; it’s to make you more aware of the increased risk. So, you might decide to keep a closer eye on your wallet or phone, or secure your bag more carefully.

Even if no pickpocketing occurs, the warning has served its purpose by making people more cautious and potentially preventing theft. The earthquake caution works the same way—it raises awareness so people can take precautions, even if the exact time and place of a quake can’t be predicted. It’s about reducing risk, not guaranteeing an event.

Japan set to lift megaquake warning

Brilliant. Right after I bought 3,000 toilet rolls, a truck load of drinking water, 100 gas bombes and 500 tins of tuna.

Absolutely stupid advisory. Shouldn't be remotely any need in explaining why.

""If no particular change in seismic activity or crustal deformation is observed, at 5 p.m. today, the government will end the special call for attention,"

Well, good. Nature absolutely follows our set schedules and routines, so we can breathe a sigh of relief.

smithinjapanToday  05:25 pm JST

""If no particular change in seismic activity or crustal deformation is observed, at 5 p.m. today, the government will end the special call for attention,"

Well, good. Nature absolutely follows our set schedules and routines, so we can breathe a sigh of relief.

Exactly what I was thinking as I read the article.

‘In the past have come in pairs’….and those pairs have, at times been 2 years apart. If this warning (not based on any real science) was really necessary then shouldn’t it last for at least another 2 years to cover the ‘pair’ criteria?!

Posting this with a view to inform, not to highlight being incorrect.

Last week's quake was sizable and was at the southern most extent of the so-called Nankai Trough. It wasn't considered "the big one" or "one of the pairs", but it was large enough to be considered a potential foreshock. It's also worth noting back in April there was another smaller but not insignificant earthquake in the same area, I was in Kobayashi, Miyazaki at the time and felt it half way up a volcano, despite the epicenter being off Nichinan's coast. So there has been more seismic activity in that area this year.

The "big one" would be considerably stronger, and if it follows the general pattern of Nankai Trough mega-quakes, it would be followed by another significant earthquake within 2 years or so.

It was worth informing the public, there are risks both ways, boy who called wolf etc. but if they didn't, and something did happen... damned if you damned if you don't.

And there is precedent, in 2011, on March 9th 2011 there was a sizable 7.2/3 earthquake in Tohoku. At the time it wasn't considered to out of the ordinary, just another earthquake with minimal damage, and many at the time said, you will know when it's the big one. But very few people were saying this could be a foreshock.

2 days later, just over 48 hours later, Japan experienced one of its strongest earthquakes and subsequently tsunamis in its history, the 9.0 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami on March 11th 2011. The March 9th earthquake that was largely ignored, has in time become recognized as the foreshock. Subsequent to the 2:46pm 9.0 earthquake on March 11th, many many aftershocks were felt.

The economic and social aspect is regrettable, but if nothing was said, and something did happen....is it worth the risk?

The positive to take from this is Japan is somewhat ready, and it has given many people a chance to reflect on whether they are ready for such an emergency with a decent non perishable food supply, water, sanitary products etc. Please look at it like that, make sure you are ready.

Having lived within 50m of the tsunami wall in Miyako, Iwate and having been evacuated before, I can assure you, be glad Japan takes this kind of thing seriously, it saves lives in the long run.

It doesn’t seem to come with an apology?

Flights were cancelled...

Wouldn't in the sky be the best place to be for a megaquake? Higher than tsunamis, off the shaking and subducting ground, above any volcanic clouds...

Another pie in the sky idea

桜川雪Today 07:09 pm JST

Flights were cancelled...

Wouldn't in the sky be the best place to be for a megaquake? Higher than tsunamis, off the shaking and subducting ground, above any volcanic clouds...

Landing, or taking off, during a quake wouldn't be nice. I wonder if they have a warning system on the plane, or do they rely on Air traffic control?

Brilliant. Right after I bought 3,000 toilet rolls, a truck load of drinking water, 100 gas bombes and 500 tins of tuna.

Kudos; you’ve taken care of not just your immediate disaster preparedness needs, but for the next 10 years. My only advice would be to pace yourself with the ‘sea chicken’.

Great..

Just take care and be alert..

And now, move forward Japan..

It doesn’t seem to come with an apology?

Apology for what? there was nothing wrong with the advisory.

Another pie in the sky idea

The warnings were very clear about the risk being still small.