Japan faces bed shortage in ICUs if pandemic peaks: study

This was news 2-3 weeks ago.

For goodness sake, can we stop with the constant hysteria? This isn’t Ebola.

Peaked?

not sure if that's sarcasm or stupidity.

reminds me of someone but can think who.

More specialists are writing that ventilators which force air into the lungs may do more harm than good, with a survival rates of less than 40%, and that the sealed mask (CPAP - continuous positive airway pressure) is a better option. Might lessen the workload for ICUs too.

As long as the human atm machines keep putting on their suits and ties every morning at 5 am to go to work to hanko and shuffle papers around, nothing will change.

Japan faces bed shortage in ICUs if pandemic peaks: study

IF it peaks? If it DOESN'T peak, we're going to see the numbers just go up! Perhaps it should say, "Japan faces bed shortage in ICUs if pandemic has not yet peaked: study"

Every country in the world faces shortages with peak numbers. Economies usually are not built expecting thousands to be in hospitalized at the same time let alone being in ICU.

It has been the government policy for years to save money by reducing hospital beds including the ICU beds. Looks like no one in the Abe government ever imagined that a virus outbreak like this could happen.

In Japan, only fifty people below the age of 70 have died so far.

Tokyo would have 903 severe COVID-19 patients against 848 ICU beds available, Osaka 666 such patients for 513 beds and Fukuoka 388 such patients for 327 beds.

That's barely over capacity in the worst hit places in a worst case prediction, a "peak scenario" assuming an R0 of two as stated in the article. When looking at Japan in a vacuum, this is probably is a serious situation, anyone dying unnecessarily should be treated seriously, but in the global context of Covid-19, even this worse case does not sound that bad. It is a long way short of places like NYC.

Also remember that there are few seriously overweight or obese people in Japan for Covid-19 to prey on. According to the NYT,

Only 6 percent of patients at one New York area health system had no chronic conditions. Hypertension, obesity and diabetes were common

peak scenario

My niece in Bend Oregon who is a doctor had a lot of extra ventilators and sent them to other places that needed them and then they in turn sent them to other places. The panic and the game is over. Stop the panic.

There are more than enough beds available, and if not you open up other rooms and even use futons if you have to.

If there was a major earthquake there wouldnt be enough beds

If godilza rises out of Tokyo bay there wouldn't be enough beds

If we admit everybody who has a runny nose there won't be enough beds.

Anyway in other news the number of cases keep falling.

It's a double edged sword.

If we don't act and numbers go up. Blame the health system

if we do act to mitigate effects and those actions prove fruitful then claim over reaction

Where is the data that supports Japan is going to see an exponential rise in deadly cases? The modeling so far is WAY off on timing. Many people on here have been screaming for nearly a month that "next week" Japan will be on the NYC curve. We are seeing a weekly decline in cases with the same, or more testing. This virus has been in Japan since January and has had a lot of time to take hold. Of course Japan isn't going to come out of this unscathed but we all may be surprised with a more positive outcome. Keep an open mind...A fascinating conversation with the top Swedish Professor of epidemiology. 600K views and trending.

https://youtu.be/bfN2JWifLCY

If pandemic peaks.

it will never peak as the number of test will never be increased.

Japan faces bed shortage in ICUs if pandemic peaks: study

Most of Japan's 47 prefectures are likely to face a shortage of beds in intensive care units for treating severe coronavirus patients under a peak scenario envisaged by the government, a Kyodo News study shows.

I have never seen so many qualifiers in my life thatches has to be oe of the worst articles I have ever read in my life

"Most" How many of the 47 prefectures?

"If", under what scenarios and what needs to take place for "if" to happen?

"Likely" How likely ? 1 in two million? 1 in 100,000, 1 in 10?

"Peak Scenario" fine, what is a" peak scenario" ? Half of the Population dying? 1 patient waiting 20 minutes more than they should?"

More specialists are writing that ventilators which force air into the lungs may do more harm than good, with a survival rates of less than 40%

I think the figures are closer to 10% survival (some say 20). And even those who do survive suffer serious life-long damage from them. If I were in ICU and offered a ventilator, I think I would refuse it.

"To tolerate such an invasive takeover of normal respiration, a patient must be put into a coma-like state with anesthesia drugs. She cannot speak, move around or eat on her own. And she has a foreign object running into her body’s central air exchange system, potentially inflaming that delicate tissue and introducing dangerous new microbes."

How, you had four months to get ready?

For goodness sake, can we stop with the constant hysteria? This isn’t Ebola.

How many has Ebola killed? This kills far more.

Everyone who needs a bed, comes from a bed. So there isn't a bed shortage, there is a ventilator shortage. Or, there is a 'special covid-19 room in hospital' shortage and that is because the government doesn't want to set up medical tents. So, if there is a medical tent shortage, they need to get more medical tents. If not, they have a problem.

For goodness sake, can we stop with the constant hysteria? This isn't Ebola.

Even though we say it so many times a day, it just doesn't seem to sink in. Or is it that we forget? We say: "The new corona virus". New. There are many viruses out there. Causing smallpox, polio, HIV/AIDS, measles, rabies, ebola, the common flu, so on. Thing is, while we actually know about them, we don't know all that much about this one yet. You say it isn't ebola. Then I take it, you know how this virus works? You know why and how it causes a cytokine storm in some patients? You know what it was that led doctors to start trying hydroxycholoquine, a malaria medicine used for protecting red bloodcells? You know whether the damage caused to lungs and kidneys is permanent or not, even after you recover? I sure don't. But i do know, I don't want to be standing next to you on the subway if that's your take on it.

I thought this one was interesting as a comparison to how things have been progressing here in Japan (or, in some ways, haven't progressed). It's about how things went in Lombardy and why. Absolutely heartbreaking lessons. It's a bit long but informative. https://apnews.com/de2794327607a3a67ed551f0b6b71404

Everyone who needs a bed, comes from a bed. So there isn't a bed shortage, there is a ventilator shortage. Or, there is a 'special covid-19 room in hospital' shortage and that is because the government doesn't want to set up medical tents. So, if there is a medical tent shortage, they need to get more medical tents. If not, they have a problem.

When they talk of a lack of ICU beds, they obviously don't mean the lack of mattresses on bed frames, they mean the specialist equipment, specially trained staff and higher staff to patient ratio that you need to support each patient.

They are expensive to set up, run and maintain so there is usually a limit to the number you have.

Well, we all now know the problem, sure would be nice to start hearing AND seeing some solutions.

"Overseas studies show that Japan lags behind other advanced nations in the availability of ICU beds."

Big surprise! And yet we pour more money into healthcare than most other things (exception being defense).

tamanegi: "This was news 2-3 weeks ago."

And yet, what's been done about it in that time? I'm quite sure nothing beyond paying "retired" oyaji to form panels to talk about doing something, and then just praying it all goes away and they don't have to.

Sarcasm PT, wake up!

you want to not burden ICU, test now and test early so that infected know who they are and they are quarantined according to their condition.

outside testing facilities are only way to go, building 1000s now, get private companies involved with incentives, go buy more testing kits,

yes, you need to make a call PM Abe, i use the word, PM very loosely , even Trump called Korea to get testing kits,

yes, it's not easy things to call President Moon, but you need to do this for your people,

unless you are so proud and willing to let 1000s die.

No Business

"For goodness sake, can we stop with the constant hysteria? This isn’t Ebola."

Ebola was extremely deadly, killing up to 50 percent of those who got sick. But because it predominantly spread through bodily fluids like sweat and blood during the last stages of the disease, it wasn’t as contagious as COVID-19.

Plus, because symptoms were so severe, health officials were able to quickly identify those who’d been in contact with people who had it and isolate them.

(Source: - https://www.healthline.com/health-news/how-deadly-is-the-coronavirus-compared-to-past-outbreaks#20142016-Ebola )

The Ebola virus disease (EVD) first struck in 1976 and there have been occasional outbreaks in the decades since, primarily in Africa. In 2014, the virus killed over 11,000 people in West Africa.

While more lethal, Ebola is considered less contagious than coronavirus and is transmitted mainly by bodily fluids (coronavirus can be spread through droplets from coughs and sneezes).

(Source: - The Ebola virus disease (EVD) first struck in 1976 and there have been occasional outbreaks in the decades since, primarily in Africa. In 2014, the virus killed over 11,000 people in West Africa.

While more lethal, Ebola is considered less contagious than coronavirus and is transmitted mainly by bodily fluids (coronavirus can be spread through droplets from coughs and sneezes) )

Also, here's a BBC video link to "behind the scenes" at a Covid-19 treatment centre in Japan:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=R8GMs6N3vN4

Japan is doing a good job without necessarily resorting to the draconian authoritarian measures of China or the China-lite measures practiced by South Korea's Moon Jae-in.

In S Korea, in the name of contact tracing, they're violating the privacy of their pliant citizens, including tracking cell phone info and credit card information!

Is that Chinese or Korean model feasible in a democratic society? Heck, NO!

Japan is doing a much more commendable job. And, Taiwan - is the best model, bar none.

This article is fluff - uninformative and shallow - typical of Kyodo yellow journalism.

In Shakespearean terms: Much Ado About Nothing.

fearmongering! Most communities are already building up strong antibodies against Coronavirus.

did some idiot just say Japan is doing a good job?

good job for what?

using tax payer money to buy defected masks from your friends, making your friends rich and giving rest of us a dirty masks.

people with virus waiting to get tested but they are dead from waiting too long.

still waiting too long, too difficult to get tested.

can't find any good masks anywhere,

if your neighbor is doing a good job and it's about saving lives,

stop your samurai pride, and follow whoever is doing a good job,

is this simple enough for you to understand!

As time goes on we are learning more about how this virus behaves. The initial indications were that it was primarily a respiratory disease and almost all the fatalities occur with the sick and elderly. Most others experienced no or mild symptoms. The naysayers jumped on this and even other threads on JT you have people just dismissing this as no more threatening than the flu. We know a lot about the 'flu, we still know very little about Covid-19. As time goes by, the situation becomes more concerning.

Over time, the virus has revealed new and disturbing symptoms over and above severe respiratory illness. Normally healthy (and often young) individuals are being struck down with micro-clots, causing severe damage to the kidneys, lungs, liver, heart etc and in some cases strokes. They are not fatalities, and are not as widely noted in the media and statistics, but do have profound life changing health implications for those, and the families of those affected.

Furthermore, there is still no hard evidence about what level of resistance/immunity an individual has after being infected once and recovering. The science is still out, but there are some isolated reports of individuals either being re-infected, or getting symptoms long after their known exposure period, and well out of the 14 days that most countries have considered a 'safe' period to isolate people for. WHO has even warned that there is no evidence yet that recovered patients are immune.

From Kenya to Japan, I say please keep on doing the great job Japan, the land of the great inventors of Asia.

I note that on a per capita basis your country has a lower rate of this virulent virus SARS-CoV-2 relative to your neighbors across the Sea of Japan! As it were, one of those countries in the region can't even tell us the real numbers that succumbed to this pathogen.

Please keep on seeking the cooperation of your citizens, and educate your Japanese people of the imperative of making informed choices, and there's no doubt whatsoever that you will not overburden your health system and hospitals.

Just don't resort to the high-handed undemocratic measures - tracking citizens en masse, infringing on civil liberties, etc, adopted by your neighbors, South Korea and China!