Japanese worried and confused after first-ever megaquake advisory

Predicting earthquakes is an inexact science.

The overreaction here has been bordering on comical. Just a few hours after the advisory, JR announced they were reducing the speed of the bullet trains to around 230km from the usual 280km or so between a couple of stations for a week, leading to delays of 10 minutes. Then Kishida postponed official his overseas official trips, just to be "cautious". Then the overcautious Japanese mindset really kicked into overdrive.

Could the fallout from this be the real reason for him to choose not to rerun in the up coming elections?

Closed the beaches but how many commuter rail services and offices were closed as well for this measure. If there were a mega quake, I'd rather be on a beach than inside a crowded moving train or an office building.

JMA statement that there has been no indication of an impending megaquake.

"No indication' The easily scared will read the above and cry 'scaremongering', but many of them could be bots using propaganda tactics typical of totalitarian regimes, spreading as many lies as they can to keep members of the public confused. Anyone who has lived in Japan or in any other place where earthquakes and weather related catastrophes have long occurred knows they need to be well-prepared but also that the worst thing they can do is panic, but the bots and their ilk want panic to spread.

Pure stupidity! If a huge earthquake hits there is not a damn thing any of us can do about it. If the predictions are correct huge tsunami waves will hit a large area and many lives will be lost and damage will be massive caused by the earthquake. So lets slow down the trains and tell people to only swim out 1 meter, not 2 meters.

It's like they want people to live in a constant state of fear! Don't enjoy your vacation, don't relax, always be on edge or worried!

I understand wanting to stockpile bottle water but I tried to pick up a normal 5kg bag of rice yesterday and the shelves were empty… if a major quake of that magnitude happens I doubt there would be electricity to cook the rice. I’m just glad there are no babies in this country because I had no problem picking up some baby formula for my infant daughter. Japanese sure have their priorities straight!

It's like they want people to live in a constant state of fear!

Indeed. The sky is supposed to fall on our heads. At anytime now.

No panics here. Gave us an chance to review our survival MO. Turns out we need more water.

Same here. I just thought it was a good reminder. I’m always stocked up with paper products, water and precooked food, but I decided to buy a little extra for my neighbors in case they aren’t prepared.

As for panic, I saw zero among the people around me.

How's Japan preparation status for mega quake?

https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14575046

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Natural-disasters/Tokyo-risks-over-6-000-untreated-deaths-in-major-earthquake

I understand wanting to stockpile bottle water but I tried to pick up a normal 5kg bag of rice yesterday and the shelves were empty… if a major quake of that magnitude happens I doubt there would be electricity to cook the rice. I’m just glad there are no babies in this country because I had no problem picking up some baby formula for my infant daughter. Japanese sure have their priorities straight!

I’ve heard that in some areas, like the suburban cities surrounding Osaka city, that there was some panic-buying of TP, water and rice last week. Here in the center of Osaka, everything is fine.

… if a major quake of that magnitude happens I doubt there would be electricity to cook the rice.

Yeah, there won't be. Those people will use a small portable gas stove to cook it using puddle water.

People, just prepare well, learn a little about survival, first aid, improve your survival kit, inform yourself well, take the necessary precautions and most importantly, always be alert and live life, continue forward..

Japan is for brave people who know how to love and appreciate this great country..

Actually a lot of people canceled their holiday plans, which is great for foreign tourists as it is a lot less crowded on trains and other places this week. Disneyland is very quiet this week.

How's Japan preparation status for mega quake?

https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14575046

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Natural-disasters/Tokyo-risks-over-6-000-untreated-deaths-in-major-earthquake

You had posted this mournful post before...

Stop complaining and prepare better for the next earthquake..

“We don’t know how to be prepared and to still live normally like the experts tell us”

It is easy.

Be prepared means having food, water and others necessary goods for a few days, turning the gas off quickly, knowing where to escape, etc, etc.

Still live normally means do not listen to the experts and do as you planned

I am gonna see ,if Tokyo is prepared for the high winds Friday,that will be tropical almost 50 miles an hour

guys from gov who have spread this info abt megaquake must weigh better their words as we see it could ignite a panic in some cases.

sure earthquake may happen anytime sepcially in Japan so be ready buy-dont live in permanent fear...take it easy and be prepared/foordwater etc/ since gov must use our taxes for something else now/US weaponry shopping as good example/...

Typhoon Ampil got a well defined eyewall, meaning it do not have to replace it eyewall like hurricane do in the US ,it a sign of it getting stronger, before it hit landfall,meaning anything in the eyewall will probably be impacted Google JTWC Ampil

Good way to decrease tourism...

"There is a 70-80% chance of a magnitude 8 or 9 quake associated with the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years..."

There is also a 100% chance of Earth being hit by a meteor and destroying us all within the next 100 years but I don't know, we'll see.

Scientists should use a translator when making announcements to the general public. That said, earthquake prediction barely qualifies as a science.

Telling people that something bad happening in the next 30 years is a bit more likely should not make them cancel their holiday. WW III, climate change, illness and accident are far more likely to do for them in that time frame.

And some people actually fell for it.

That said, earthquake prediction barely qualifies as a science.

You must be more qualified, right? Please do tell us about it!

There is a 70-80% chance of a magnitude 8 or 9 quake associated with the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years, and the probability is now “higher than normal” after the latest quake, the JMA says.

The Nankai Trough is an undersea trench that runs from Hyuganada, in the waters just off the southeastern coast of Kyushu, to Suruga Bay in central Japan. It spans about 800 kilometers (500 miles) along the Pacific coast.

The Philippine Sea Plate there slowly pulls down on the Eurasian Plate and causes it to occasionally snap back, an action that could lead to a megaquake and tsunami, JMA says.

In 2013, a government disaster prevention team said a magnitude 9.1 Nankai Trough quake could generate a tsunami exceeding 10 meters (33 feet) within minutes, killing as many as 323,000 people, destroying more than 2 million buildings and causing economic damage of more than 220 trillion yen ($1.5 trillion) to large swaths of Japan’s Pacific coast.

OK, 30 years is nothing. But they didn’t say TOMORROW or NEXT WEEK, right?

Because

Some towns closed beaches and canceled annual events, which has led to challenges for travelers during Japan’s Obon holiday week, a time for festivals and fireworks across the nation.

Many people have put off planned trips and rushed to stock up on rice, dried noodles, canned food, bottled water, portable toilets and other emergency goods, leaving shelves empty at many supermarkets

The popular seaside town of Shirahama in Wakayama Prefecture said its four outdoor hot springs, parks and other facilities would be closed for a week. Saturday’s annual fireworks festival was also canceled.

SMH.

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MarkXToday  06:55 am JST “ Pure stupidity! If a huge earthquake hits there is not a damn thing any of us can do about it. If the predictions are correct huge tsunami waves will hit a large area and many lives will be lost and damage will be massive caused by the earthquake. So lets slow down the trains and tell people to only swim out 1 meter, not 2 meters.

It's like they want people to live in a constant state of fear! Don't enjoy your vacation, don't relax, always be on edge or worried! “

Good post, but incomplete. People should be prepared. You can enjoy your life and still have some common sense.

"Life is for living and death is for tomorrow."

It is not Plato but it is like modern day Plato.

I’m not getting scared of it, no way Pedro. If it happens it happens doesn’t it. Same with the Covid lark, just went about my daily business and didn’t worry about it all and I ended up fine.

Not only the Japanese, but residents of Japan.

Fear mongering and guillable people. Perfect recepie to create useless panic and paranoia.

How can people live in this constant state of fear, prisoners of their own minds, instead of living their lives at fullest?

DanteKh

Distracts them from the real issues innit bruv. It’s all about having people gripped by fear these days, if it’s not one thing it’s another.

Most of the people I know have used this as a chance to recheck their emergency supplies, which I think was a big part of the government's intention here. But other parts, like slowing the Shinkansen and Kishida putting off his trip (although given that he's quitting, maybe something else was operating there) is a clear over-reaction. We're seeing the same thing in the reaction to the typhoon, with JR Tokai halting all Shinkansen between Nagoya and Tokyo all day - and making the decision on WEDNESDAY. A lot can change with storm courses in a day.

I think that living in such a disaster-prone area has given all of Japan a certain level of General Anxiety Disorder which NHK, which claims disaster-preparedness as a big part of its brief, tends to feed when something looms. It's gotten worse since 3/11, which was the worst quake to affect Tokyo in decades. I also think there's the danger that issuing these warnings could mean later ones are shrugged off, but we'll see.

I have lived through a major earthquake that killed a lot of people in my city and we did not understand just how unprepared we were at home. I urge people to have a good emergency kit at home as you will be very surprised what you need. Remember you will most likely not have any services including water, electricity, mobile phones and toilets. For some people you wi not be able to get into your home to get clothes and other items either. We now have 2 very large boxes at home located right at the door of the house. One of the comments above says there is not a thing we can do to stop a major earthquake and they are correct but at least taking time out to put together an emergency kit together might make it survivable.

Better be safe than sorry, damn if you do, damn if you don't. The advisory was good and if a megaquake would have hit many lives would have been saved.

I hope that Japan doesn't turn into one of those countries where genuine experts are disregarded because people think they know better and/or the government of the time decides to politicise something. (Look what that led to in the USA during peak COVID).

I remember the first quake I felt here. Scared the bejeezus out of me, and it wasn't even that big (although in a LeoPalace, even a magnitude 2 or 3 feels like the end of the world).

It must be more worrisome for people who are relatively new to the country and who come from a place where quakes never, or rarely, happen.

But to put some perspective on it, consider those less fortunate countries which are also quake-prone and compare the casualty numbers with those of Japan for a quake of equal magnitude. If you're going to live in a seismically active place, this is probably the best one to live in.

People may be panic buying supplies, brackets for bracing furniture, etc., but they are things that they should have had already. Panic buying, esp. by the vulnerable, suggests there was an ongoing state of unpreparedness.

This will sound nasty, but the best thing you can do is not live in a poorly reinforced house at risk of collapsing or suffering enough damage to send you into a sports hall or other shelter for weeks on end. Yes, there are lots of old houses in Japan that can appeal by being near-free to buy or rent, but they may end up costing you big time.

ffs

The Covid-19 pandemic was no laughing matter. It resulted in the deaths of over 7 million people. Try asking their families if it was a "lark".

There are historical records of mega quakes. They are not something new.

There is little point in living in fear but at least people should be aware and make whatever preparations they can.

We reviewed and renewed our waterproof 'emergency bag'. Made it lighter and less like a camping trip bag, because if a quake/tsunami happens that is so bad we need to actually evacuate our place...it's probably game over anyway. Also it's most likely for an emergency to happen while we're at work....requiring a long walk home to get our 'bag',

Closed the beaches but how many commuter rail services and offices were closed as well for this measure. If there were a mega quake, I'd rather be on a beach than inside a crowded moving train or an office building.

Are you kidding? It’s an advisory, therefore people need to carry on daily activities as normal such as mandatory things like work. Trips to the beach aren’t deemed necessary. In the event of an earthquake of this magnitude, the majority of deaths would come from the ensuing tsunami. It’s not rocket science. Comments such as this are from foreigners who think they know everything. I shake my head at hundreds of you daily. Have some common sense.

I think the only honest pe reparation one can do is to move from quake prone buildings or houses that can fall during a big one. Other than that should be the job of coastline city halls to build tsunami digs and walls, reinforce older buildings, temples, etc.

What can the average Tanaka do, when his whole house would just collapse on top of him?

The headline was the desired effect.

Predicting earthquakes is an inexact science.

Which is why the advisory was about an increase of risk, not a prediction.

If there were a mega quake, I'd rather be on a beach than inside a crowded moving train or an office building.

And why the choice is only about these two places? How come you can only choose between high risk during an earthquake or high risk from a subsequent tsunami?

Pure stupidity! If a huge earthquake hits there is not a damn thing any of us can do about it. 

Lacking imagination or desire to prepare for a disaster is a terribly bad argument to project those flaws into everybody, rational people can easily identify many things they can do to prepare and make much less likely to have a tragic outcome, it is not like you can either be perfectly fine or else dead, there are a lot of things that can happen and being prepared can make it so you have a much less horrible time in a huge earthquake.

If a major quake of that magnitude happens I doubt there would be electricity to cook the rice

But since people can cook rice without electricity that would not be that much of a problem.

Indeed. The sky is supposed to fall on our heads. At anytime now.

Only people with deep antiscientific bias fear precise and well supported information, regular people can simply take measures and prepare without ever fearing anything.

guys from gov who have spread this info abt megaquake must weigh better their words as we see it could ignite a panic in some cases.

The advisory is actually very mild, clearly defining the increase of risk as very limited, just not something that could be ignored responsibly.

There is also a 100% chance of Earth being hit by a meteor and destroying us all within the next 100 years but I don't know, we'll see.

That is the difference, the experts know based on scientific data, just saying random things followed by "I don't know" is not even remotely the same.

Fear mongering and guillable people. Perfect recepie to create useless panic and paranoia.

Without any scientific argument you can't validly call the advisory fear mongering, just because you fear information that does not make it so for the rest of the people.

I think the only honest pe reparation one can do is to move from quake prone buildings or houses that can fall during a big one.

That would be incorrect, there are a lot of things that can be done to reduce the risk because this is not a situation where either people die or survive and have no further complications. Preparing can mean the difference between surviving to a hell of other problems or to a much less stressing period.

Predicting earthquakes is an inexact science.

So true. The "70% ~ 80% likelihood within 30 years" really is next to nothing to go by.

"There is a 70-80% chance of a magnitude 8 or 9 quake associated with the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years, and the probability is now “higher than normal” after the latest quake, the JMA says.

But that is not a prediction that a megaquake will happen at any specific time or location, says University of Tokyo seismologist Naoshi Hirata, who heads the JMA’s experts panel. He urged people to remain cautious and prepared."

Yes people should remain cautious and prepared but "within the next 30 years", may be too long this providing people with false hope.

"Predicting earthquakes is an inexact science.

So true. The "70% ~ 80% likelihood within 30 years" really is next to nothing to go by." @Stanleyj

Totally agree!

Having the top and left edge of my TV screen with large letters warning of a possible megaquake 24/7 doesn't help much with stress reduction, does it? This is overkill.

Yes, we understand and it should be known that the chances of a major Nankai Trough quake increases after moderate to a large earthquake in this vicinity but it shouldn't be shoved into our consciousness non-stop like this. It isn't healthy. A mention and caution of this on the news every evening for a couple of weeks is enough.

I know about five people who have canceled their summer plans, which I find ridiculous. I just got back from a wonderful trip to the mountains and rivers and am so glad that I haven't allowed this to "confuse and scare me."

So true. The "70% ~ 80% likelihood within 30 years" really is next to nothing to go by.

Unless you expect to live a few months this is actually something that would let people make better decisions, when it is more likely than not you will experience a disaster (unless you move, etc.) then it becomes a luxury not to consider anything about how to deal with it.

Yes people should remain cautious and prepared but "within the next 30 years", may be too long this providing people with false hope.

What false hope are you talking about? The "hope" of a realistic chance of experiencing something in their lifetime that most people would not?

where a tsunami as high as 34 meters (111 feet) was predicted in the government risk analysis, initially set up 30 shelters across town. If a tsunami is going to hit one of these towns with a huge wave, surely a rescue centre will be just flattened, it will totally engulfed with water, and flattened, there needs to be an evaluation plan put in place, I would be looking to get to a high point very quickly,

It is better to be 100% wrong and do something than to be 1% right and do nothing .!. It has nothing to do with fear mongering .!. It’s a reality of living here that we should always be prepared.!. And this is not something that is comparable to the “Covid lark.” That was and still continues to be much more scientifically predictable.!. Unfortunately, there are those that spend all their time spreading patently false information, fabricated science, and couldn’t care less about anyone else.!. Karma eventually comes full circle.!.

It is better to be 100% wrong and do something than to be 1% right and do nothing .!. It has nothing to do with fear mongering .!. It’s a reality of living here that we should always be prepared.!.

Absolutely agree. The people who toss up the word “fearmongering” seem to be the most fragile types.

It’s obviously more sensible to get some info, be as prepared as possible, and then get on with the things you want and need to do.

Carry on being 100% wrong and proud of it like McCarthy while the sensible people enjoy their lives to the full.

I’ve done very well by being prepared for contingencies. Being informed and prepared is not the same as being afraid.

Some people get their kicks lecturing people about their lives while exposing the life-altering mistakes they’ve made.

Yes, living my life to the full without any of the problems other people regularly complain about here.