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Japan's population projected to shrink 30% by 2065

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Allow immigration Japan, you are doomed without it.

-5 ( +16 / -21 )

Good news. I think it's rather crowded and I don't care about how much tax revenue corrupt people wanna collect from a larger population.

6 ( +16 / -10 )

For a country with extremely limited natural resources, and a government that refuses to invest in clean renewable energy, a smaller population is probably the right way to go.

Good news. I think it's rather crowded and I don't care about how much tax revenue corrupt people wanna collect from a larger population.

Japan, as whole, is hardly crowded, there is plenty of space available.

17 ( +22 / -5 )

As though anyone can predict a population 50 years in advance.

These stories are meant to whip up fear, when in fact we should be celebrating an orderly and unforced reduction in population. The only thing that makes it disorderly is the state falling into debt it can never repay. Does anyone really believe that, if the population started rising tomorrow, the politicians and bureaucrats would be any more responsible with our money?

1 ( +14 / -13 )

The population used to be this small. 30% fall in population is a great chance to improve peoples quality of life - more space, less congestion, less work more family time etc etc.

15 ( +21 / -6 )

A 30% reduction in population means a 30% reduction in the country's energy needs. Coincidently, that is how much energy provided by nuclear power. Japan does not need to return to nuclear power!

12 ( +18 / -6 )

Japan's population projected to shrink 30% by 2065

Its going to shrink by much more than that. remember, we have OVER 25% of the population TODAY that are over 65. That projection is overly optimistic at best.

Allow immigration Japan, you are doomed without it.

Absolutely.

Japan, as whole, is hardly crowded, there is plenty of space available

Exactly.

The population used to be this small.

That was due to a high mortality rate. BAck then it wasn't a society of old people.

30% fall in population is a great chance to improve peoples quality of life - more space, less congestion,

As Yubaru said, Japan is already not crowded. I'd go as far as to say its empty.

less work more family time etc etc.

That's a work ethic issue. Hardly related to population decline.

3 ( +10 / -7 )

Natural selection doing its job.

-1 ( +6 / -7 )

Good. Way, way too many people in this small country. This will make Japan a much more pleasant place to live in.

2 ( +5 / -3 )

The population used to be this small. 30% fall in population is a great chance to improve peoples quality of life - more space, less congestion, less work more family time etc etc.>

Seriously doubt that. When nearly half of the population is retired, the other half will half to work double just to afford the taxes for those sitting at home. And what about the monumental health care costs for all those elderly people? Japan is facing a massive problem...

11 ( +14 / -3 )

I usually agree with most of you, but can you guys hear what you're saying? A population in decline like this is not good for Japan or anyone.

The pension system is not ready for this proportion of retirees. Japanese citizens hold most of the countries debt, so less people = government budget issues. The average age of farmers is already in the 60s, and farm sizes remain small and heavily subsidized. You can't feed the country affordably this way. The population pyramid won't balance out for YEARS, and the 18-64 year old population will be hugely overburdened. Think about it!

The problem is not crowdedness. The problem is fleeing rural prefectures and unsustainable urbanization with a lack of childcare to support it. The problem is overtime for everyone, and impossible working conditions for working mothers. The problem is LEADERSHIP and putting "company first" and families second.

Stop being short-sighted and calling this good for the country. That is wholly incorrect. This is bad news, and the government and corporate leaders should hurry up and commit to families and work-life balance. Go to the countryside and see for yourself, the decline is already here.

17 ( +18 / -1 )

"...the other half will half to work double"

Not likely. A couple of surveys find that about 40% of our jobs will be automated in the next couple of decades ahead. If this is true, a shrinking workforce seems to make sense.

1 ( +4 / -3 )

As though anyone can predict a population 50 years in advance.

Wow. I hope that's sarcasm!

6 ( +8 / -2 )

Good. Way, way too many people in this small country. This will make Japan a much more pleasant place to live in.

The discomfort of crowded trains aside, gleefully rejoicing at the decimation of a people which population reduction eventually leads to is simply morbid.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

It's a bit of both good and bad. It will be tough in the shorter term, during the 'shrinkage', but it will be better after the fact, with less people competing for the same amount of resources.

-4 ( +1 / -5 )

I love how these government researchers who cant accurately predict next quarter half the time are making forecasts such as "fertility rate will edge up to 1.44 in 2065. George the monkey could make more accurate predictions about what will happen in 50 years time. But never mind , the population will not drop 30 % because Abe says he will keep it stable at 100 million and what the dear leader says always comes true ..cough. These forecasters just need to be replaced.

1 ( +5 / -4 )

The problem is not crowdedness. The problem is fleeing rural prefectures and unsustainable urbanization with a lack of childcare to support it. The problem is overtime for everyone, and impossible working conditions for working mothers. The problem is LEADERSHIP and putting "company first" and families second.

Exactly!! And actually, what is going to happen is that the rural areas will become depopulated first. This will lead to an even greater decline in social services such as transportation, forcing the remaining people to head for the cities. This will make the citiies EVEN MORE crowded..

Stop being short-sighted and calling this good for the country. That is wholly incorrect. This is bad news, and the government and corporate leaders should hurry up and commit to families and work-life balance.

100% correct.

Go to the countryside and see for yourself, the decline is already here.

As someone who constantly travels with his familly I can attest to this. Yamanashi, Gunma, Nagano, Mie, Ibaraki are all prefectures I have travelled extensively in, and all show signs of this. You don't even have to go that far. Here's a link to a ghost town in Saitama prefecture.

http://haikyo.org/nichitsu-ghost-town/

Anyone who has a car in japan and has the time to travel should go around and see for themselves. The idea that Japan is crowded is a myth. There is PLENTY of space. The problem is population distribution, not space..

4 ( +8 / -4 )

People saying here "Good, less crowded". Urban city's will never get less crowded. If people pass away or room opens up in the urban areas what do you think will happen? People from inaka will come to fill those spots. If you really want some space, you have to live in inaka.

11 ( +13 / -2 )

@CruisinJapan

Couldn't agree more. Hiroya Masuda, the former governor of Iwate who stood as official LDP candidate in the Tokyo governor election last year, wrote an excellent article about this situation and what needs to be done.

http://www.japanpolicyforum.jp/archives/politics/pt20140120152454.html

It makes for grim reading: disappearing cities, rusting, abandoned provincial towns and massively overcrowded mega-cities that suck up all resources and people. Even in the Kanto area parts of places like Yokosuka and Mobara in Chiba are becoming mini-Detroits. The future is bleak.

6 ( +7 / -1 )

As stated by other people, this is a double edged sword with many positive and negative points. As Strangerland stated, it will be very difficult during the decline. It will put a lot of pressure on the workers with a declining workforce. It will also create problems in the agricultural sector because most of the farmers are elderly with no heirs to take over. The heirs are already living in the overpopulated cities. However, the declining workforce will match the decline in Japan's declining grip on foreign markets and the declining demand for domestic products. The agricultural sector will not fair as well. While the demand for produce will decline slightly, it would be a chance for Japan to decrease its 70% dependancy on imported foods although, the government will have to give incentives to encourage people out of the cities and to take up farming. There has been a mild push for this in recent years, but it needs to be a major push. The pension system has already failed with 2/3 going out and only 1/3 going in. However, when the balance of elderly to workers evens out, this will solve itself. There is only only one certainty with a 30% reduction of population in the next 50 years, Japan has some tough times ahead and many things have to change, which is cary because, as we all know, the Japanese are afraid of change.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

Japan's population declining isn't imo the (main) problem, the proportion of people 65 aged years and over is. Thing is that can't/won't be 'fixed' in the next 50-60 years unless J women start having babies (many babies) and/or we bring in millions of migrants, which would mean a population of 150M by 2065 (and still a good 30-35M of 65yo and over). Not sure it's what J ppl (and I) want tbh.

Japan, as whole, is hardly crowded, there is plenty of space available.

Understand what you're saying yubaru but there is a problem of population distribution in this country (and in many others). Dunno if Japan is too crowded per se but what I do know is that it's metro areas are already too crowded for my liking. Problem is can we make J cities more liveable for all? Doubt it. Houses/flats are too small, parks too few/small etc and unfortunately that wont change. This is why a shrinking population, provided it means less ppl in J cities, isn't bad news at least in terms of quality of life. Whether it's economically viable is a different story though.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

Japan, as whole, is hardly crowded, there is plenty of space available.

This is a common misconception when talking about population. It's like saying your house can handle another 3 dozen kids, as there is still plenty of floor space. The amount of land that a person occupies is a tiny fraction of his/her actual land use (in terms of food, resources, waste, etc.)

Stop being short-sighted and calling this good for the country.

Sorry, but it is the other way around. It is extremely shortsighted to look at temporary budget issues (caused by irresponsible governance) at the expense of the long term well being of humanity. There is simply no justification to destroy the future of our grandchildren to pay off unsustainable debts that we ourselves ran up.

-4 ( +4 / -8 )

I suspect there are a number of technological fixes to this, if the govt is willing to accept them. making people is one of the first things people mastered.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Provided the inverted demographic pyramid is re-inverted, I see no problem with this whatsoever.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

88 million in Japan? That's like one quarter of US population living in an island that is smaller than state of California - it is too crowded. Japanese companies can find plenty of workers and buyers of their products everywhere in the world. National boundaries are not that important. Soon or later, robots will be working for humans. Japan is going there a few decades earlier. Depopulate further in order to increase land per Capita.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

The root cause is that the government is not making it easier for their own people to have children and to care for them. Wasnt there an article recently abt the severe shortage of child-care facilities in Japan? If children in general are seen as a burden rather than a joy by the society and if the nurture and care of children is given such low priority by the government, then we shdnt be surprise that Japan’s polulation will keep shrinking. And as a foreigner myself, let me say that bringing in more foreigners into japan does not solve the real problem that japan faces.

7 ( +8 / -1 )

The daycare shirtage exists but is being made out to be bigger. Neither is the shortage universal.

Some areas/towns got shortages while others got none or even openings.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

Living in a major city, it can often be hard to believe because new housing projects continue to pop up rapidly. But this is simply a result of the country side towns hallowing out at an extreme pace as people flock to the cities. For those who don't mind a bit of an extra commute, and don't need all the convenience a city has to offer, there are some real bargains to be had on housing out in the country!

3 ( +4 / -1 )

This may not come to pass. If it does less people is good in some ways (less crowded) but less good in others (economic effects). I am trying to help with this problem but my girlfriend is reluctant to be a mum.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

The problem isn't the population decline, but more the dependency ratio of workers with aged workers. With almost half the population being over 65, everyone will see their taxes skyrocket as healthcare expenditure dominates the budget

6 ( +7 / -1 )

yeey! would love to have the train population shrunk by 30%

1 ( +3 / -2 )

Good. This is needed on an international level... Our little planet cannot sustain the rapid growth 'infection' from our species. 7 billion and growing is not sustainable. We should aim to get back down to at least 3~4 billion like it was before WW2...

It's only the selfish greedy few that profit from the 'debt money system' (i.e the private and secret owners of all central banks) that need continued population expansion in order to survive...

1 ( +5 / -4 )

Easy fixed encourage 18 year olds to have families with a support for the 3rd child etc and their male partners provide for their children until at least 16 years of age

-4 ( +1 / -5 )

Allow immigration Japan, you are doomed without it.

Spot on. You need immigrants - either accept non-Japanese to your society or go the same way as the dodo.

1 ( +5 / -4 )

As though anyone can predict a population 50 years in advance.

Math demographics are probably the easiest to do. Pf = Pi * e^(rt) where Pf is the final population, Pi is the initial, r is the rate and t is the time

I used a negative rate of -1.44%. So Pf = 127.08 e(-0.14445) gets 66.5 million, which is pretty close to their estimate. The decline rate would be changing over time so revising it every 5 years would change as they've mentioned.

It's not going to be an exact figure but it's still useful to ballpark figures for planning purposes.

4 ( +5 / -1 )

Allow immigration Japan, you are doomed without it.

Used to have the same opinion. The problem is the japanese mindset that simply refuses to allow anyone without japanese blood. The special Permanent Visa for South American nikkeis was a joke! Bet it was one of those oyajis again that came up with the brilliant idea (they have japanese blood, hence they must act like japanese!). Japan should apply a merit visa system as strict as the american naturalization, to only allow in people who really can adapt, contribute and like the country in general. But again, they DON'T want any non japanese settling here. It's not because of us, westerners, or whites, blacks, south asians. They have only 1 concern in mind: China. Open the gates and you might have chinese-only cities in just a few years.

4 ( +5 / -1 )

Even though I'd be the first to move there, I hope they don't allow immigration. Japan is so amazing I'd hate to see it diluted by other cultures.

-6 ( +6 / -12 )

The ironic thing, for those of you cheerleading this demographic decline because you want more elbow room, is that it will probably make Japan more crowded rather than less crowded.

The reason the country feels so crowded is because you are probably experiencing it from a city. The cities here are insanely overcrowded, but the countryside is very sparsely populated. You can buy massive houses built on huge tracts of pristine land very cheaply if you want in this country, just take a look at any real estate website. You just have to live in the countryside.

So I think it is incorrect to view Japan as a whole as overcrowded, rather it is a problem of distribution. Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya, etc are overcrowded. So if you want to address that overcrowding you need people to turn those rural areas (including smaller cities in rural prefectures) into places people choose to live in over Tokyo, etc.

Japan's declining population is not going to solve that problem, its going to exacerbate it. The major metropolises in Japan suck all the young people from the countryside and as they do so it becomes harder to sustain those rural communities. The fewer the young people you have in those areas, the more likely they are to socially collapse and be abandoned, which is going to force the remaining elderly people there into the already overcrowded cities because they need to be nearer to lifelines like hospitals which will, thanks to the drying up of resources in rural areas, be closing in greater numbers.

So the major cities will become even more crowded while the rural communities that we need people to live in to solve urban overcrowding will be abandoned. While the overall population of Japan declines, its overcrowding problem will become worse because a population that is 40% retired is going to be way more concentrated in urban areas than a younger population will be.

6 ( +7 / -1 )

I don't think that this a real problem and would actually benefit Japan.

-3 ( +2 / -5 )

What immigrants are going to want to come to Japan to work 5 hours overtime per day?

8 ( +9 / -1 )

Corporations that have factories have been preparing for quite many years. Not just robots but automated production processors. Candy are produced,, dried, wrapped, another wrappers of product name, then packed in zip lock,, ready to sale. Mazda had automated car production factory in Hogue. Years ago, there were robot receptionists who communicate with several different languages. Cars in USA have infection talking system dquiippe. Of cause Japanese brand name cars but big three auto in USA make, too.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

With overpopulation around the world it is necessary that a trend like this has to happen at some point. The problem is how we will overcome the difficult times ahead. The current system is not built to handle such a trend, a new system has to be thought of and how to best minimize the damage that will occur. In the long run and from the environmental perspective a decline will definitely be a benefit.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Japans a crowded place now so the population decline wont hurt - I'd be happy to father some kids with some of those cute Japanese girls

-7 ( +1 / -8 )

These stories are meant to whip up fear, when in fact we should be celebrating an orderly and unforced reduction in population. The only thing that makes it disorderly is the state falling into debt it can never repay.

Commanteer

WOW, while debt is a massive problem in Japan no doubt, you & others posting here need to look at a J-population pyramid like this one to see the very REAL problems Japan faces

http://www.ipss.go.jp/site-ad/TopPageData/2015e.png

There is NOTHING orderly about the decline Japan faces, NOW is about as ""orderly"" as it is likely to be, and we have elderly couples committing mutual suicide, murder-suicide & just murder & those incidents will only increase here on in!

While an orderly decline would be fantastic here its simply not possible, looking at current trends Japan will be SLAMMED for the next 45yrs NON STOP getting worse over time.

What kind of place will Japan be over these coming decades, I hope it survives, but considering how it is today, sadly to call it grim doesn't anywhere near convey the pain that's headed our way

Look at how SHARP the decline points at ZERO where babies are being born, clearly that is pointing to a rather sharp continuing decline in births.

And as many other right have pointed out the very real country side VS city issues, its going to be BRUTAL, if we are lucky!

4 ( +5 / -1 )

I don't believe many government figures or predictions for the future, but demographics are easy for a country with low immigration. It is very likely something close to this will happen. These predictions will be much more accurate than tech-related ones like when robots will start doing XXX or self-driving cars will become the norm, things that are not fifty years off like these population numbers.

As other posters have said, this won't simply mean more room or the same money to go around fewer people. It means further collapse for the countryside, further decline for regional cities, and little or no improvement in quality of life in the mega cities. It won't be pretty.

At present the Japanese population under 75 is falling by getting on for one million a year. Old people's consumption is driven far more by needs than wants, so this will have huge implications for all those companies selling principally to Japanese people. This shortfall will take much more than the odd early finish on Friday for workers to compensate.

As a father of three, I would say the childcare issue is hyped and there are far bigger reasons to not have kids. The established model of parenting in Japan involves much more grindy self-sacrifice that in other advanced countries and means that raising kids is nowhere near as fun as it should be. Europeans take their kids to the beach for one or two weeks as a matter of course, they have nights out as couples, and they only join PTAs or help with sports clubs if they want to. Having kids in Japan means other people writing your name on lots and lots of rotas. We seem to spent most school nights trying to get the kids to do stuff they need to do for the next day, not relaxing and playing games of Twister or Uno or drawing funny pictures or any of the fun stuff you can do with kids. There is never-ending low-level pressure of stuff to do.

9 ( +9 / -0 )

@CruisinJapan

spot on mate imho.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

I've been here 25 years. This topic comes up every month or so, nothing is done about it.

Japan is the kid who hasn't done his homework and hopes that the teacher doesn't call on him. 25 years and still hoping to not get called on. The horse has not only bolted the stable, but has run 2000 races, sired foals, starred as an extra in Mr Ed, been used for children's rides and is now dog food. It's too late to do anything about this now.

But imagine if they'd started an immigration program decades ago when Japan first started to worry about this. But no, we get Premium Friday!

2 ( +6 / -4 )

The birth rate has been in negative for a few years and if it continues the population in the next century will be zero.

4 ( +5 / -1 )

I thought the population was already quite short as is, gonna be a munchkin nation by 2065 then.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Possible China by then will just walk in, rather than a total zero population on Japan. Who knows what the future will bring

Peak Oil will have fully occurred long before then and the requirement of travel may lose its ability if electric transportation and significant oil replacements are not fully realized by the 2020's to 30's. Given Dr Goodenough's further advances in battery technology recently that might already be well in place by then. Just a question of how fast the fall of the Carbon world will be.

Japan will be a cleanup site. All the funds ruined today will be sorely missed tomorrow during any number of present and future cleanups. More and more environmental assessments to come, hopefully it can attract those wanting to clean. Note the Fukushima disaster will outlive you, outlive your children, and their children.

Without ambition to deal with environmental or world issues in any particular industry to meet some kind of consumer demand, I don't see how Japan attracts future product creation. What does a country service in an unemployed world? Who will buy the products if the jobs are all automated? When the fish are vacuumed away and the world has to eat vegan out of necessity, who is prepared to lead instead of follow?

4 ( +5 / -1 )

sf2k: Japanese people are not going to exist after the year 3000

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/japan-s-population-may/2289744.html

Anyone can walk in and take over.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Depopulation of this scale, in terms of human cost and ramifications to the social fabric and cohesion in Japans society politically/ economically should not be arbitrarily dismissed or misrepresented in a positive light.

Examples: 30% fall in population is a great chance to improve people's quality of life/ 30% reduction in the country's energy needs. Coincidentally, that is how much energy provided by nuclear power are inconsequential, sorry. Their reasoning is illusionary.

The relationship between supply and demand, consumption and resource, expedient division of measure and method, provision and rationing behind the causes and outcomes of depopulation is not definable as a natural balance or continuity. This is not feasibly plottable numerically to provide a constant over a given period of time.

To specifically define the outcome, the consequence and repercussion, a database has to be built then the variables identified in a logistical model.

This will sound cruel and dispassionate, depopulation will reach a point where harsh conclusions will demand decisions be taken, first in the area of health and nursing care, the allocation of resource for the elderly, and social provision to focus solely on a national family planning program and agenda. Care pathways to the ration advanced medical pharmaceutical, and age related long term recovery resource risk management will become inescapable fact.

sf2k presented a exponent equation to calculate a derivative reduction forecast. This can be broadened and added to create a comprehensive computer model simulation. sf2k could add to that formula, density dependent birth, and density dependent death then expand to include consumption and resource competition though all 47 prefectures.

Chapter three population growth: replication below defines the calculus.

Modeling Population Dynamics - Theoretical Biology & Bioinformatics

http://theory.bio.uu.nl/rdb/books/mpd.pdf

Put simply one cannot be treated or cared for without skilled medical staff, specialists, doctors, nurses. One cannot feed a national without human agricultural resources. An economy cannot provide for societies needs without a self replicating cycle of young skilled educated work force. Schools are dependent on a steady supply of experienced and dedicated teachers. There is no happy landing here.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

"Rainyday" has a point regarding distribution. Kanto in particular is overcrowded. I think it sits around 35 million people at the moment. Basically 10 million of those people could be living in Hokkaido or any prefecture on the Japan Seaside of Japan.

The federal government needs to start subsidizing jobs in rural areas, so companies will think about moving more manufacturing into those areas.

Anybody talking about immigration as an answer has no idea what they are talking about. Basically for Japan to maintain its current population it would need about 1 million immigrants a year! Think about that. By 2065 that would be about 25 percent of the population.

-1 ( +3 / -4 )

itsonlyrocknroll

Thanks for the links on expanding the calculations further. I appreciate it ;)

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Not if I am appointed! :D

1 ( +1 / -0 )

so it's no more -50% of population in 2050 ? HAHA

So it's proof clearly that this prediction of birth rate in Japan just for proof that Japan need to allow mass immigration is childish and people that make those statistics are racist toward Japanese that sue preserve gen (like other Asian countries) instead like western countries..

Slowly and slowly they will review their statistic and lower their estimation.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

There are two heavy obstacles faced by Japan to reach limitation of the demographics catastrophe now happening:

  • roles of parents for kids' education: it is sensible to let your kids learn by themselves going out on theit own in the nature or by having physical social experiences. With 2 months summer holidays each year when kid, I never felt I was behind intellectually.
  • romance: talking about love and living it by showing/expressing it is essential. It leads to sex and kids.

Other topics are futile since once you get kids, instinct gives you power to make it happen one cannot imagine.

No one needs money to live the rich life the urban Japanese has. Food, love, a shelter, that is it.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

I mean, Japanese knew how to preserve their gen*

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Rainy

All true maybe but there is a reason people want to leave rural Japan for the big cities. no one is forcing them to do so. not everyone is built for life in the sticks or on the farm.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

I think the people who think Japan needs more people in order to survive also have it wrong. Japan can do just fine with less people and less corruption and wiser spending. But yeah if the government is gunna steal half the money and send billions abroad to bribe foreign governments, and then yeah raise our taxes and bills, then yes, in that case we may need more people.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

sf2kAPR. 11, 2017 - 02:00PM JST

Possible China by then will just walk in, rather than a total zero population on Japan. Who knows what the future will bring

China is going to face population decline, too.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_future_population_(United_Nations,_medium_fertility_variant)

According to the UN projection, China is going to record a population peak in 2030, and start free falling. Their one child policy and their preference to have boys is sure to hit them hard.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

CH3CHO. Thanks for the link. China will still be a billion people by 2100. It'll depend on the world of that era what resources will still be around after we've gobbled them all up.

It's all based on current projections. If there is a sudden drop in resources like oil, or a food crisis brought on by climate change one or both will have deleterious effects for us all. Our ability to feed ourselves in the face of change may be the best skill to have

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Hi sf2k I hope you are able to apply those calculus skills here in Japan. Having a data analysis research business, in Japan, as well as the UK, we have to continually rotate staff to cope with the work load and new projects.

In my humble opinion the lack of opportunities and wage growth, has a direct effect upon couples ability or willingness to start a family. The government has had five years to introduce direct family focused monetary policies However through all the rhetoric, pledges and promises, little change has materialized.

Depopulation can be halted and reversed, it depends on the political will to start comprehensive tax and employment reform. Immigration will not provide the skilled workforce or the next generation of Doctors or nurses. In my experience one of the main barriers is language and communication skills. This issue is challenging to say the least.

Our UK company has a workforce of 276 from thirteen different countries, they all communicate in English, probably because Great Britain at one time or another occupied or attempted to occupy there country.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

"yeey! would love to have the train population shrunk by 30%"

It would still be uncomfortably crowded during peak times.

Japan is basically doomed. They keep voting in the same do-nothing politicians.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Japan can do just fine with less people and less corruption and wiser spending.

Sure but the glory days will be gone as the nation loses top twenty status.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

his is a common misconception when talking about population. It's like saying your house can handle another 3 dozen kids, as there is still plenty of floor space. The amount of land that a person occupies is a tiny fraction of his/her actual land use (in terms of food, resources, waste, etc.)

Look at the population facts, the country is losing overall population, but look at the populations of Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya, which are pretty much all growing still. But how can that be with a declining population? The folks are coming from somewhere one would figure?

23 special wards area, Yokohama, Sagamihara, Kawasaki, Chiba, Saitama, over 36 MILLION people, Osaka, Sakai, Kobe, Kyoto over 19 MILLION people, and finally Nagoya with over 9 MILLION people, do the math. those three areas along account for nearly 50% of the overall population of the entire country.

Those people are coming from somewhere, and where they came from means that there is open land, facts show that the inaka machi are going bankrupt, because no one lives there or chooses to live there, for hosts upon hosts of reasons.

Japan is only "crowded" if one chooses to stay in those metropolitan areas, but get of them, and you will see there IS plenty of space!

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Japan Institute: "Do your job, women!"

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

@Yubaru The dilemma of the rural areas hollowing out is well known. But who wants to go someplace with 1 school, no resteraunts, several really old people who will die soon, and probably not much else? I for one embrace that Osaka metropolis is growing. Sounds good for biz! If Japan cannot afford to do things in the future, we will be forced to spend wiser and be less corrupt. We will be FORCED to. At the moment Japan is still rich and spoilt.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

There is NOTHING orderly about the decline Japan faces, NOW is about as ""orderly"" as it is likely to be, and we have elderly couples committing mutual suicide, murder-suicide & just murder & those incidents will only increase here on in!

Let's say I accept this as true. Even if it is true, increasing the population will simply push this down the road a bit, and it will be much worse then. If your goal is simply to make your own life more comfortable, without a care for future generations, then more population is the way to go. But at some point, populations must decline. This is like gravity - unavoidable.

And what is the cost of making it an easier landing for pensioners and others who depend on government assistance? How about total destruction of our environment and total depletion of vital resources. What kind of future is that to leave for our grandkids?

This is as plain as night and day to me, and the downvotes I get show me a disheartening degree of fear and selfishness. Our grandkids didn't spend, borrow and tax irresponsibly. We did. And it's our duty to face the consequences of our poor decisions. To pass the consequences on to our grandkids is criminal.

The sooner we accept responsibility for our generation's mistakes, the sooner we can be on the road to prosperity. Instead, sadly, it seems we would rather bury future generations.

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Allow immigration Japan, you are doomed without it.

That model will de deemed outdated and obsolete in the impending age of A.I. , automation and singularity.

Japan is at the forefront of the three mentioned above. Adding more foreign labor there using obsolete prescription will only cause disharmony and more foreign demands to change the culture over there.

Seriously, who needs more foreign labor when AI and automation is displacing human workers at breakneck speed. Also, 88 million sounds just right for a country roughly the size of California.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

And why is this a problem?

With the rapid ongoing automation of all manual and most white collar jobs well before this date there is no need for such a large population and will ease the inevitable problems created by a large proportion of the population having no meaningful occupation though they have been pre programmed by the education systen for little else!

not just a problem for Japan.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Change the Law to allow one man to have many wives ?

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The population itself is not the issue, the work force is the issue. Contrary to what a lot of people believe, the Japanese government has been actively trying to encourage immigration despite pretending not to by simply framing it in a different way, not calling it immigration. They are doing a lot and trying desperately to encourage people to move to Japan. I predict the future of Japan will be very similar to that of England. The two countries have very similar culture and mindset. In the coming decades, the foreign-born population of Tokyo will gradually increase substantially.

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itsonlyrocknroll

yeah the math looks fun, thanks again. I'm not in Japan unfortunately. I've been unemployed for years on and off so I can attest to the notion of unstable work making it unlikely to develop relationships, get married, or have children. I'm mid life now and back in school again. I hope the 5th time is the charm. I'll never own a house or a car. My country doesn't offer a free degree so I've always been at a disadvantage. There's a lot of people left to the sidelines who are perfectly capable of being useful but are no longer wanted in this economy. Make your time, live well

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@sf2k

Gumbuttee ne

Lifes a game of cards some time you get a good hand and sometimes not. Were all going for a long nap shortly try not to compare mate, just enjoy the ride. Some times ya up some times ya down. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2Wx230gYJw

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Kobe White Bar Owner

Monty Python always ;)

I'm not giving up hence the school again so maybe I'll be able to carve out a niche for myself. No point in relying on duplicitous companies

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

"How easy and safe it is to have and raise a family?"

I think this is a million dollar question that concretely helps to decide whether to continue living in any nation around the globe.

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Let's say I accept this as true. Even if it is true, increasing the population will simply push this down the road a bit, and it will be much worse then. If your goal is simply to make your own life more comfortable, without a care for future generations, then more population is the way to go. But at some point, populations must decline. This is like gravity - unavoidable.

And what is the cost of making it an easier landing for pensioners and others who depend on government assistance? How about total destruction of our environment and total depletion of vital resources. What kind of future is that to leave for our grandkids?

Not sure what you are getting at here about environment & vital resources... What I said was simply Japan is going to be hit hard(its already STARTED) & harder over time, I cant see how Japan can avoid it. If you have ideas for a softer landing over the next 4-6decades I would LOVE to hear them!

Japan has been staring at this problem in plain site for at least 30yrs now & is only now kind of acknowledging it, its rather scary if you ask me but as I said I would LOVE if Japan can pull a rabbit out of the hat.....easter is coming & seems to be a THING here now so....

This is as plain as night and day to me, and the downvotes I get show me a disheartening degree of fear and selfishness. Our grandkids didn't spend, borrow and tax irresponsibly. We did. And it's our duty to face the consequences of our poor decisions. To pass the consequences on to our grandkids is criminal.

OK, do you have any ideas on how to take some of the weight off future generations in Japan? I agree the ldp has been criminal in disregarding a lot of things that affect peoples lives & the future of Japan, but they keep getting re-elected so a lot of these problems are the peoples fault as well, everyone is turning a blind eye.

The sooner we accept responsibility for our generation's mistakes, the sooner we can be on the road to prosperity. Instead, sadly, it seems we would rather bury future generations

Again I am all ears! As many have pointed out its not just a population problem its also VERY MUCH a population distribution problem, Japan has made colossal mistake of encouraging a few cities to explode population wise since the 60s at the expense of the rest of the country. I am not sure if Japan can turn the tide but the MUST try imo.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

I'll better get to it then... I'll take one for the team guys!

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I cant see how Japan can avoid it. If you have ideas for a softer landing over the next 4-6decades I would LOVE to hear them!

I agree with most of what you said. There is no soft landing. The baby boom generation was primarily responsible for allowing the LDP to overspend, and so it is only right that they baby boom generation bears the burden of correcting course. It will be painful, but the chance to manage a smooth landing passed us by 20 years ago.

That said, I think your 4 to 6 decade estimate is wildly pessimistic. When economies are allowed to collapse, and the chips are allowed to fall where they will, it's painful but quick. Within a decade, or even a few years, the economy could be roaring again. Historically this has always been the case, unless the government decides to take over the economy. Then it can drag on for decades.

I also agree that business should be dispersed more evenly around the country, and not all centered on Tokyo. But at the same time, I don't see a problem with some economically unviable small towns closing up shop. Part of the reason for the current mess is the focus on small towns pork-barrel projects, with grand civic centers and hospitals even in the tiniest towns.

The first step is to get the government out of the economy and allow Japanese people to be productive again. Alllow zombie companies to fall and make room for new entrepreneurs who have imagination and drive. Vote zombie politicians who are subsidized by these zombie companies out of office. They have brought the country to the brink of collapse, and will continue to do so under the guise of "saving" it.

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The baby boom generation was primarily responsible for allowing the LDP to overspend, and so it is only right that they baby boom generation bears the burden of correcting course.

Except that the baby boom generation isn't going to bear the burden of this, they will long since have passed away by the time the effects of the demographic crises are really being felt. It'll be millennials and children being born today that are going to pay the real price of this.

When economies are allowed to collapse, and the chips are allowed to fall where they will, it's painful but quick. Within a decade, or even a few years, the economy could be roaring again.

Are you kidding? We've gone 25 years since the collapse of the bubble in this country and are still waiting for the recovery.

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Except that the baby boom generation isn't going to bear the burden of this,

All the more reason to get started early. No reason at all for the children of millennials to suffer this.

Are you kidding? We've gone 25 years since the collapse of the bubble in this country and are still waiting for the recovery.

Please reread my post. Nothing at all has been allowed to collapse in this country, because the government has been supporting big and fossilized business that need to go under. As I said, when the government tries to control the economy rather than let natural forces play out, they can drag it on for decades - as they have in Japan.

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Japan needs a super mega playboy!

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That said, I think your 4 to 6 decade estimate is wildly pessimistic. When economies are allowed to collapse, and the chips are allowed to fall where they will, it's painful but quick. Within a decade, or even a few years, the economy could be roaring again. Historically this has always been the case, unless the government decides to take over the economy. Then it can drag on for decades.

Take a look at the population pyramid link I posted, its going to be a MINIMUM of 40yrs with the population DOMINATED by the elderly & at the same time fewer babies being born. An economic collapse WONT change that fact, you would end up with a society in collapse with a massive number of elderly, which if it happens would be a medical nightmare of massive proportions.

The population pyramid is already too far gone & trends point to it getting worse for the elderly & newborns alike.

I agree about small towns, hard decisions NEED to be made, towns & cities merged or abandoned, also there are far too many prefectures & all the admin involved, these ALSO must be merged & downsized big time! Actually its the same problems facing Fukushima in a lot of ways, just for different reasons.

Also agree the pork barrel economies created all over Japan since the 60s instead of REAL viable economic activity is a massive burden & keeping all these zombie companies afloat is keeping ALL companies in Japan weak, many should have gone under decades ago.

Its going to be brutal & Japan is the first of the major economies that will have to face this, the world is watching

So instead of having new companies, existing companies, companies on their way out we have mostly weak, NON TAX paying(about 70% of J-companies NEVER pay any income tax, seriously messed up THAT!!)companies & little else except for a select few, and even the Toyota's & Canon's are having harder times these days!

1 ( +2 / -1 )

@Yubaru The dilemma of the rural areas hollowing out is well known. But who wants to go someplace with 1 school, no resteraunts, several really old people who will die soon, and probably not much else? I for one embrace that Osaka metropolis is growing. Sounds good for biz! If Japan cannot afford to do things in the future, we will be forced to spend wiser and be less corrupt. We will be FORCED to. At the moment Japan is still rich and spoilt.

Ahh..but read what I was responding to in the first place, the argument that what I initially wrote being a misconception is false. And the example given does not fir the situation.

This is a common misconception when talking about population. It's like saying your house can handle another 3 dozen kids, as there is still plenty of floor space. The amount of land that a person occupies is a tiny fraction of his/her actual land use (in terms of food, resources, waste, etc.)

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Take a look at the population pyramid link I posted, its going to be a MINIMUM of 40yrs with the population DOMINATED by the elderly & at the same time fewer babies being born.

I basically agree with you, but I am less pessimistic. First, lots of things can change in 40 years to completely skew those projections. Some good things, and some bad things. But by no way is anything written in stone.

Secondly, I have faith in the ability of people to adapt. Not saying it will be easy, but it's a bridge we have to cross.

Japan is only "crowded" if one chooses to stay in those metropolitan areas, but get of them, and you will see there IS plenty of space!

Sorry, I missed your post earlier. My point was that being "crowded" or not is irrelevant to the real issue. The real issues are the resources we use, not the space we physically occupy. Tokyo requires massive land and resource use that stretches around the world - depleting fish stocks in the oceans, polluting the air and the seas, stripping forests for wood, and stripping land for minerals, unsustainable agriculture destroying yet more land, waste taking up more land again - it goes on and on.

Which is why we desperately need to lower the global population. If we don't do it by reducing the number of kids we have, it will be done for us - by environmental destruction and pollution, depleting resources, disease, war, famine... the usual suspects. I suspect having a house surrounded by trees will offer little relief in these scenarios.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

First, lots of things can change in 40 years to completely skew those projections. Some good things, and some bad things. But by no way is anything written in stone.

Most of these demographic changes are already locked in because they are determined by events that have already happened, so actually yes most of this is already written in stone. Forty years from now regardless of what happens in the interim, there will be way fewer 40 year olds than there are 80 year olds (etc) because those people have already been born.

Which is why we desperately need to lower the global population. If we don't do it by reducing the number of kids we have, it will be done for us - by environmental destruction and pollution, depleting resources, disease, war, famine... the usual suspects.

I totally agree that we need to control the global population (not sure if we need to reduce it, but certainly it can't be allowed to keep growing at its current rate). But I fail to see how Japan's decreasing population is going to do anything to address any of those global problems you identify. The most obvious way of dealing with the problem is to supply family planning and birth control to countries with unsustainably high birthrates. Japan has birth control, it has a low birth rate, so none of these Malthusian predictions really apply here - the Japanese population is already under control.

Cheerleading the collapse of Japanese society due to demographic decline as you seem to be doing (which would ironically introduce all the things you claim to want to avoid at the global level - war, famine, disease, etc to this country, and if I understand the main benefit you are touting is that inefficient companies will be weeded out thanks to a lack of government support that such calamity will bring about, which hardly seems worth the massive suffering) makes no sense even from the global point of view. The Japanese population is decreasing at a rate of about 200,000 per year. The global population adds that number of people every 24 hours. It is so insignificant that it gets swamped by a single day of growth elsewhere. If you want to solve those problems, this isn't the way to do it.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

A smaller population will be good for Japan. There will be less competition for resources and people will be happier. With less crowding and stress, the fertility rate is likely to increase and the population will stabilize at a sustainable level. The transition periode will be challenging, but manageable.

Opening up for massive immigration is like peeing in your pants to keep warm. We have done that mistake here in Scandinavia (e.g. Sweden) and the effects are visible in the form of increasing crime rates, erosion of social harmony, incidents of terrorism and unsustainable increase in the cost of maintaining our welfare state. Our societies are slowly being torn apart, although we don't like to admit it.

Japan is a unique country bound together by an ancient, sophisticated cultural fabric. Please keep it that way.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

Even within Japan, they will separate "True" Japanese, from just normal Japanese, so I wonder what the Statistics are for that break-down.

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