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M5.5 quake hits Koshin, Kanto areas

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About five have from 7:44 In the Fuji-Go-ko. Do not tell us Fuji is waking up!

http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/quake/20120128074401391-280739.html

0 ( +4 / -4 )

What a lovely wake up alarm.....

0 ( +5 / -5 )

Actually, my IPhone earthquake alarm went off twice in about 3 minutes. The first quake just shook the trees and washing line outside. The second one shook our wooden house. Kids woke up. Nice start to the day. Keep safe everyone.

1 ( +5 / -4 )

Shaken and stirred from a deep slumber, so an early start to the weekend.

Are more and more of these quakes' epicentres now moving South from East of Tohoku towards South of Kanto? It sure seems like it....

0 ( +4 / -4 )

7 quakes in 30 minutes. Reports of an evacuation order in eastern Yamanashi? Anyone know details on the evacuation order?

-9 ( +4 / -13 )

Keep safe everyone. Try not to let this further stoke any fears about the reports that 'the big one' is coming to Tokyo soon -- this is sadly an 'everyday' occurence somewhere in Japan. Still, no harm using this as a wake-up call if you feel the need to prep for a big quake.

0 ( +5 / -5 )

...and please don't irresponsibly spread rumors about evacuation orders unless you can cite a source. Panics kill more people than earthquakes.

0 ( +4 / -4 )

The one I felt was very short and quick. A little jump and a bit of creaking and all over in a few seconds.

I am not anything close to a seismologist so those in the know please correct me but is there any chance that all these lots of little ones are releasing pressure bit by bit thereby reducing the power of a potential biggie?

If nothing else these little "wake up calls" (literally this morning!) are keeping us mindful of preparations should the worst happen.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

Nice little swarm of earthquakes. I hope Mt. Fuji is not preparing to blow its stack.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

Anyone know details on the evacuation order?

Nothing on the news, nothing on google.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

but is there any chance that all these lots of little ones are releasing pressure bit by bit thereby reducing the power of a potential biggie?

It depends on a lot of factors but is probably unlikely to have any major effect on future earthquakes - although neither side of the argument has ever been conclusively proven as we know very little about earthquakes unfortunately.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

All sorts of theories abound:

-Many little ones release pressure, a good sign. -Many earthquakes in the wake of the big one almost a year ago, normal.

Most recent: More earthquakes in the Kanto region a sign that the big one is coming in 4 years (at least 75 percent probability).

Which is true? Probably all of them.

Translation: There are so many factors in determining what a particular earthquake means, that it is almost pointless for the lay person to reach any conclusions. Any one of the above, if true, is counterbalanced by any of the others.

Conclusion: Be prepared. But don't be so scared that you cannot function.

Be aware of habits that are not helpful (such as posting questions here about evacuation orders if indeed you have not confirmed with your own ears that something like that has happened).

Anyway, all sorts of foolish behaviors, not limited to EQs. Such as people in Kanto trying to go to work in a typhoon. Or go home when one has hit. People in southern Japan would stay put. So just because your neighbor is doing it doesn't mean you should do it.....

When I first came to Japan 33 years ago, I actually had no idea what I was letting myself in for. I rationalized it be saying that if I had stayed in NY city, the likelihood of being knifed on the subway or walking home late at night was greater than being killed in an earthquake. Since crime is supposedly down in NY, I can't use that one anymore. But then, I am leaving Tokyo, and yes, the reason is 3/11. But no guarantee that where I am going, another similar event won't happen. Genkai nuclear power plant shows serious signs of metal fatigue that experts such as Koide Hiroaki say put people in that region at risk if the thing is not shut down.

So, what do we do when we can't fight nature, or the culture that encourages building nuclear power plants in a region where they pose a grave risk, or a society (like most) that places more emphasis on the well being of business than on its citizens (par for the course most places, and Japan is still way ahead despite its crap bureaucrats telling Fukushima mothers to vacate their encampment around the METI complex or face arrest, when is is METI that bears great responsibility for the disaster)?

The answer again is not to panic, but to be aware and have a plan. And yes, people in places like Tokyo are too complacent about the, risks, as they are about the safety of their food post the leak of radiation. To a certain degree, it is healthy not to panic. Since life must go on. But one should still be aware.

Aware of where their food comes from. Aware of what the schools serve for lunch. Aware of the nearest evacuation area if a large one comes. Know how to walk home if the trains stop running. And, if you think it's time to get out (which no-one but you can decide), neither believe that those who stay are foolish nor that YOU are being an irresponsible "fly-jin" if you do leave.

Some do not have the luxury of fleeing-- such as those in Fukushima hot spots not on the official lists, who would get no compensation if they left, factors such as employment and livelihood are not to be dismissed.

Yet those who ridicule those who take the dangers so seriously that they DO leave are not to be listened to either. We know that the government does not take the safety of the people seriously and that it prioritizes the economic infrastructure over all else.

10 ( +15 / -5 )

@ Paul Arenson. Great post! Thank you!

0 ( +5 / -5 )

is there any chance that all these lots of little ones are releasing pressure bit by bit thereby reducing the power of a potential biggie?

I am not anything close to a seismologist, either so those in the know please correct me, too.

What I understand from here and there is that earthquake itself is the one releasing pressure, whether it is M9 or M2. So those little ones ARE releasing pressure bit by bit. However, earthquakes also trigger other quakes 3.11 M9 earthquake has activated/stimulated the whole island of Japan. (The island has moved 8m toward the east; 8m closer to America) That's why Tokyo university got different estimation M7 earthqauke would hit 70% chance within 4 years. (before 3.11, it was within 30 years)

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

Iwate Ken is pretty perky today, too.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/20120128092617391-280922.html

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

Yes, funny quakes this morning! The first one woke me up and I tried to go back to sleep, being born in Mexico, living in California, quakes are just part of every day life, but the second one was weird for me, I told my wife I could hear or sense the next quake coming, and she said to me half asleep to be be quiet, urusai, and sure enough, as soon as she told me to shut up the next one came a rocking and a rolling and now she is listening a bit more to me, but thank god/s that these were just small quakes and that we are are fine here in Tokyo and all of the Kanto area of Japan. (cross your fingers and hope our luck don't run out)

-4 ( +2 / -6 )

Busy day for the Yurekuru early warning system!!

0 ( +1 / -1 )

I think the big one is coming to the Kanto region, sooner rather than later. It will change our lives forever...

-13 ( +1 / -13 )

Conclusion: Be prepared. But don't be so scared that you cannot function.

I agree. Municipal government should be well prepared especially for local schools.

Of the 108 school children in Okawa Elementary school, Ishinomaki City, 74 kids died. This tragedy could have been avoided if the school had been more prepared.

http://pacificfriendsfund.org/blog/2011/04/29/at-that-moment-what-should-we-have-done%E2%80%A6-in-okawa-elementary-school-ishinomaki-city-74-death-or-missing-of-the-school-children/

99.8% survival rate of Kamaishi-Higashi Junior High School and nearby elementary school was not miracle. They had been well prepared.

http://wedge.ismedia.jp/articles/-/1334?page=1

1 ( +2 / -1 )

@Blair Thank you for those two links. Excellent content. They should be required reading for everyone in Japan.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

japan is sinking

-4 ( +1 / -5 )

Since the countries most powerful earthquake on 3/11, the country has entered a new era of strong and more frequent earthquakes which is likely to go on for the next 30 years. Then this week, experts predict a powerful earthquake could hit Tokyo within 4 years. I think the word there is "could". The country remains concerned about the over due Tokai earthquake.

Some foreigners have the option of staying or leaving. Personal choice. Have a "Plan B". If you have family and children discuss what to do if a powerful earthquake does happen. Where to meet up and also decide on several locations where messages could be left. Keep some emergency supplies, in the boot of you car, if you have one. Practice some evacuations to the nearest local park or evacuation center.

1 ( +5 / -4 )

@Paul Arenson - brilliant post, thank you so much.

@Blair - really interesting links too. Thank you so much as well.

I have another question regarding the biggie hitting Tokyo - I have an ongoing discussion regarding whether a tsunami could actually hit Tokyo through Tokyo Bay. If you look at the topology of Tokyo Bay, it has a very narrow neck which doesn`t face out to sea but rather down the coastline, and then once through the neck, it then opens up to a wide bay.

Because of this I am under the impression that a tsunami coming from the Pacific could enter Tokyo bay but only do limited damage.This is because tsunami occur when a quake epicentre is out in deep open water and build up speed and power as they approach the coastline and shallower land. A tsunami coming from open water in the PAcific would hit Chiba Kawasaki and Yokohama rather than Tokyo which is protected in th bay.

If the epicentre was along the coastline, then a tsunami could be generated that travels along the coastline and into the nexk of Tokyo Bay, but because this water would be shallower being nearer the coast, the tsunami would not be able to generate enough power to rise to a greater height and cause the damage we saw in March.

Also, while the tsunami power may increase as it passes through the neck of Tokyo Bay, it would then dissipate when it opens out again into the wider bay area.

Again - I am a complete amateur on this, I know nothing at all for definite - this is just my impression. Does anyone know if when the biggie happens all I have written above is correct, or am I mistaken. I think it is important to know for Tokyo people whether a tsunami is a real threat t the city. Thx

-4 ( +1 / -5 )

@Nicky Washida

I'm not a physicist, but I would imagine that a bay narrowing in like that would work like a funnel or a bottleneck, increasing the energy of the water being pushed through there - that's what they told us about the fjord where I live in Norway (in the event of massive rock slides). However, it would depend whether it comes from the south or from the east. If it came from the south, there would be no obstruction, so that could put Tokyo at risk. If it came from the east, It would probably do damage to Chiba.

All this being said; we should try to avoid too many "what if"-questions and answers....they don't really contribute a lot, except making people scared. The most important rule is to take care of the people next to you, whether you know them or not, don't forget to take care of yourself, and never end a day on a bad note with your wife/family/friends. It can be a scary thought, but no one lives forever, so we should make sure to love those dear to us while we still can, and spend our time on earth doing good for our fellow citizens.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

There is an interesting article here, Nicky, which makes a lot of sense. What you are saying may be true to some degree. http://www.cnngo.com/tokyo/life/could-monster-tsunami-hit-tokyo-one-day-321226?page=0,1

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

mastertigurius - thank you. Very well said. I try very hard to follow your philosophy but my God, sometimes my kids can push me to the limit!

I guess what I am asking is that - while Tokyoites should absolutely be making what preparations they can for the quake, should we also be thinking about preparations for a tsunami too, or is it not necessary for the reasons I said before?

-4 ( +0 / -4 )

It seems from what little I have read that although a powerful wave may not come in and sweep everything away with lateral forces, there is a possibility of a rise in the sea level like a super high tide, that could swamp everything below ground.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

Ah, ok, that sounds very possible. We have a river running around two sides of our building and flowing into the bay which is only a few hundred metres away, and I often notice the water level rising significantly. There is also absolutely no high ground to run to around here at all, but I guess the apartment buildings themselves are so rooted into the ground with metal posts that higher floors would be unaffected.

-4 ( +0 / -4 )

nandakandamanda - just read your link - REALLY interesting! Thank you! So it sounds like my theory was correct. Good to know. We are still in the brown sticky stuff living on reclaimed land that may well disappear, but at least we wont be swept away. Think I might add a rubber dinghy and a couple of paddles to our emergency pack in the cupboard!

-4 ( +0 / -4 )

whether a tsunami could actually hit Tokyo through Tokyo Bay.

By the government calculation (M7~8), the probability of Tokyo Bay experiencing a mass tsunami is minimal at best due to the shallow depth and the fact that the area is somewhat closed between the two peninsula.

According to the simulation done by an assistant professor Koji Kawasaki (Nagoya university), if M9 earthquake occurs at full tide, 2.4m tsunami would hit along Tokyo bay. Less than 1m tsunami would hit Edogawa-ku, Koto-ku, Sumida-ku. Even with M9 earthquake, people in Tokyo would not be swept away like Tohoku on 3.11, but subways and depachika... I don't know

http://www.aera-net.jp/summary/111002_002581.html

New tsunami hazard map info of Kanagawa and Saitama

http://ajw.asahi.com/article/0311disaster/quake_tsunami/AJ201112080059

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120105006007.htm

Fire is the one I would worry about if I lived in Tokyo.

According to the government calculation, most damage will be done by fire in Tokyo. (M7.3, ws 15m/s)

Total damage of house/building: 77% by fire.

The dead: 57% by fire

Relatively dangerous areas in Tokyo are: Taito-ku, Adachi-ku, Arakawa-ku, Katsushika-ku, Sumida-ku, Koto-ku.

http://www.bousai.go.jp/syuto_higaisoutei/pdf/higai_gaiyou.pdf

Chiba refinery was like this with shindo 5 on 3.11

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnHne_q8HY4&feature=related

0 ( +1 / -1 )

For those who can read Japanese (or have a Japanese reader at home) you can check your risk in the event of a major earthquake in the Tokyo area at this site. You select the type of building and input information as to your location. The map shows risk down to the level of a neighbourhood:

http://riskmap.enveng.titech.ac.jp/riskmapMain.html

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

http://riskmap.enveng.titech.ac.jp/riskmapMain.html

I made your link hot warnerbro. Use those arrows.

Looking at the site now. There is also a good program on tv now about now. TBS

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

No problem

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

High tides around Chiba is around 8:30 to 9:00 p.m. tonight.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

Tokyo Rinkai Disaster Prevention Park is a great place for kids and adults to learn and experience about earthquake (especially earthquake hitting Tokyo)

The library is equipped with a mini-theater system that will introduce you to what an earthquake centered under Tokyo would be like

An exhibition gallery showcases disaster prevention tools and a number of disaster prevention games.

A video hall that shows what it would be like if a major earthquake (M8) occurred under Tokyo

Tokyo earthquake simulation seventy-two hour tour: How would you survive during those seventy-two hours when rescue is difficult? This tour allows you to experience the flow of events starting with the development of an earthquake disaster in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area and ending with evacuation

http://www.ktr.mlit.go.jp/showa/tokyorinkai/english/72h/index.htm

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Making preparation is resonable, at this rate, stating a possibility about quakes and when they are coming in Japan is not spreading tales and it shouldn't scare anyone. All those after shock have condition everyone by now, since Japan is I would not say famous, but know for giant ones, it is reasonable to think or assume that there will be a big one coming your way soon, all the evidence points that way. Now, with that said, if you are in Japan. It is wise to make whatever preparation you can, for a sunammi or volcanos no matter where you are living. Common sense tell me, after a big one, if there is so many after shocks 6 thousand plus, that sunami is the least of your worries, watch out for volcanos. So, my Japanese friends, be pack and ready to move at a moments notice

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

This JT website and comments has really grown up since 3/11. I have learned so much how people other situations than mine (single women nearing 60) have had to cope. Thanks everyone! Keep on posting.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Here's that url again.

http://www.cnngo.com/tokyo/life/could-monster-tsunami-hit-tokyo-one-day-321226?page=0,1

I live in Sumida, and while we have a higher risk of liquefaction, I do like the positive aside of this article for Tokyoites:

"The slope is really lucky for us in Tokyo,” she says. “A tsunami wouldn’t grow in a flat ocean bay. It wouldn’t be an attacking tsunami moving up a river. It would be a gradual series of waves, perhaps two meters high at most, and we would have time to escape.”

I had no idea there was a typhoon hitting here the day of the 1923 earthquake. Hard to believe!

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

Dear Ranger_miffy2 Die hards remain, many who read the news got out ASAP. Many commenting now are unable to do so...or would have gone already if able. As the year progresses and more and more information is released about the previous year expect less and less comments. Those who stay are either in denial, or putting on a happy face in full knowledge of what has happened, or hoping for the best knowing it's ugly. A big one is on the way and looking more likely, Fukushima is controlled day to day, food, water, air even buildings and health compromised. There is only one argument for staying and that is a fear of the unknown...over riding the fear of the known. What does it take! An unfolding N Disaster on a tightly packed earthquake prone Island, ruled by hereditary buffoons who continue to resist outside help! JC

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

Actually, all these quakes are making people more aware. Since this Fuji-san this morning, I think I will get my butt in gear and make some preps tomorrow. Wrote a list.

Having about ¥50,000 in small bills and lots of change is on the list...and toilet paper.

Meds

Water in big and small bottles if you got the space.

Diabetic things

Water purification pills (Got a lot from the states...)

Tolet paper and plastic bags.

Be prepared my friends.

-4 ( +0 / -4 )

Or just didn't listen to the hysterical western press

Which time and again have been proved right! Yep what do the western press know, investigation, sources, following up on stories. Cesium cattle lost - reported 4 days ago (damn those western press), birth defects, tumors (damn those western press and stupid YouTube, lying home videos)

I agree, Denial is a water way in Egypt. And that's why people still stay, all is well no problem. Consuming breathing, like tobacco can't hurt you if taken in moderation..(just pay the tax)

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

iPhones ! Second try !

Common sense and natural knowledge with a little physics should allow for the obvious . No one can predict what our planet will do ...it is in constant flux. Common sense would allow scientists and common people that actually sit down and look at what's happening ....say to themselves...

Hey the pressure had and is still relieving itself both north and south of Tokyo . Problem is it's shifted quite a bit in both of those regions. Kanagawa and Tokyo are the areas the have been left behind ....they both have to shift in the same direction but haven't . Many people on here have said the little ones are releasing pressure. Hypothitically it could be quite the opposite of that. The small shifts could be very well increasing pressure in the same area by transferring load weight on a smaller area in same fault.

Also it could be compared to a snowball that started out small that will gain momentum and size as it moves forward.

The prediction of 4 years ??? It could be 4hrs, 4 days, 4 months ....we are living in a highly active area in the world ..there is no possible way for the "specialists" to actually predict that timeframe of a event such as this. We are al naive to think that we could.

The best think anyone could do living here is accept the fact it could happen. Prepare yourself for it. Get a tent, get supplies save fuel for travel and cooking save some water and food ...that's not extreme thinking is just being prepared when most people aren't .

0 ( +0 / -0 )

It's me? Try you tube, and News sources of worth. While explosions were reported overseas, while contamination were reported overseas, failings in the food chain, reported spread of radiation, now 8 months latter confirmed, containment breach denied at the time now confirmed. TEPCO admitting non reporting of safety violations (over 200) before the disaster...look it up or wait till it's news in 12 months. Got a lot more, but zushi and Ben have provided more then enough links for the curious. Birth defects and cancers are deniable today if you don't self educate, give it 6 months and it will be slowly admitted to. Nearly 12 months on and what actually has happened is happening is still being dribbled out. A doubling or spike in radiation country wide not explained or even generally reported, me thinks like the worst case paper, head in the sand. Shhhhh De Nile If it works so be it

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Just a reminder, 10 months ago breast feeding mothers out side the exclusion zone were discover to have excessive levels of radiation in their Brest milk. What would you realistically expect to happen to a developing child?

0 ( +0 / -0 )

There will be more earthquakes to come in Japan until the one that caused it last March rest and settle down. Brace up and be safe.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Before the first one hit, there was like a rattling noise and then the big shake. I highly believe Mt Fuji will erupt some time, and probably sooner than later. Volcanoes are popping up all around the World. I have to remind myself to carry lots of yen when traveling far from home. And probably need to start carrying emergency supplies in my car just in case.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

A lot of good advice here. Be prepared the best that you can...just in case.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

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