Many Taiwanese think Japan would aid Taiwan if China attacks: poll

If the U.S. intervenes, then Japan will basically have to follow suit, but only in regards to logistics.

90 percent of Americans do not know where Taiwan is, only the US Congress can declare on China, just like they did Japan

The US will support Taiwan in a faceoff with China. This is bipartisan. Japan will assist but limiting to support, logistics, supplies, humanitarian, etc. However, if China chooses to engage in combat and US forces come under attack, Japan will assist the US under Collective Defense. Japan has an ability to reinterpret it's constitutional constraints to match the circumstances, and there are very few people in Japan who do not believe that if China takes Taiwan, Okinawa is next. They probably aren't wrong. Even if they were, China controlling Taiwan and the sea routes that supply Japan would be the equivalent of having their neck in China's grip.

And they are right.

Japan, the US, AUKUS and QUAD have your back, Taiwan.

What people believe or what people think will happen with the China Taiwan issue and USA and Japan's involvement is speculation.

The simple fact that not everyone has had the opportunity to voice their opinion or belief.

And Google is definitely not correct about everything.

Can't do a 5 minute search on Google and automatically become an authority on any subject that comes to mind.

The key word here is "think" but when it comes to crunch time, we'll see.

All in all, let's never hope for a war of any sort please.

Yes, of course, that’s a simple must, otherwise they short after would become the next occupied.

Ossan,only the US Congress can declare war on China, by an act of Congress, Biden do not have that authority with these grave consequences, we have no official treaty with Taiwan

They need to re-evaluate. The first tourists allowed back into japan will be China, despite the fact no one wants them. Only help Japan will offer is un support for sanctions and protests..

Would like to see Taiwan get closer to Japan in many areas.

Being prepared for a possible CCP Invasion would require 100% cooperation.

U S is China number 1 customer, where will American get their shoes

Only after much deliberation and then gauging world opinion is will they move. Don't count on initiative, or immediate response from Japan.

The White House quickly “walked back” Biden’s declaration that the US would militarily aid Taiwan in the case of Invasion from China.

“walked back”

Japan will. Taiwan can calm. But the problem is from elsewhere. South Korea. They will try to block.

Nippon, they were once close, when Japan colonize Taiwan, maybe Japan could defend against a wet paper bag, you must do not know Japan history Google Japanese Taiwan Colonization

Taiwanese military is now training with the US military on U.S. soil. There are US advisors on the ground in Taiwan. Taiwan is a critical line of defense for Japan. It is not Afghanistan, or the Middle East. Any involvement of the JSDF concerning Taiwan will be in the defense of Japan, not riding the tail of US involvement in some away desert with little direct effect on Japan.

The White House “walk back” was extremely significant - and extremely underreported.

If the Taiwanese think Japan will help in case of a CCP-Controlled-China attack, oh boy, they're in for a shock.

Unfortunately, the average Yamato men have become weak people, who care only about the latest manga or fashion trend, without an inch of patriotism who would kneel and cry in surrender at the first sight of the PLA.

On top of that Japan is backed by US army which has right now the weakest leadership that great nation has ever seen.

So, no Taiwan, Japan won't come out to rescue you.

El Rata, I have to agree. People are delusional if they think they can envision Japan going to war with China over Taiwan. It simply won’t happen.

The Biden administration would find some reason to stay out of that conflict too, you can bank on that.

Ossan,only the US Congress can declare war on China, by an act of Congress, Biden do not have that authority with these grave consequences, we have no official treaty with Taiwan

Congress only has to pass an Authorized Use of Military Force for the US to defend Taiwan from attack. Any US President who refused would be impeached, convicted and replaced in hours. Support for Taiwan is essentially universal among the members of both houses of Congress. There would be no vacillating on the matter because the losing Taiwan to the CCP would constitute and existential threat to the US, and to Japan.

El Rata, I have to agree. People are delusional if they think they can envision Japan going to war with China over Taiwan. It simply won’t happen.

Japan would be backed into a corner and have no choice. If Taiwan fell without Japan putting up a fight, the Chinese would attack Okinawa next, and they wouldn't wait years to do so.

The Biden administration would find some reason to stay out of that conflict too, you can bank on that.

Aside from the fact that your claim is not even remotely credible after what he has said multiple times in public, Congress would impeach and convict him as fast as they could count the votes. Congress would not tolerate any kind of delay in defending Taiwan. I think you know that too, you just wanted an excuse to disparage Mr. Biden with ad hominem.

Unfortunately, the average Yamato men have become weak people, who care only about the latest manga or fashion trend, without an inch of patriotism who would kneel and cry in surrender at the first sight of the PLA.

Isn't that what's happening to China men and South Korean men? I see lots of young men here working out

more than ever, martial arts booming more than ever.

Tortoise, Congress act for the Americans people, they would be voted out, American citizens always has a say, if the US goes to war, impeachment is highly unlikely

Many Taiwanese think Japan would aid Taiwan if China attacks

Possibly.

But if I were Taiwan, I wouldn’t count on it.

At least not until The US made the first move, then Japan follows suit.

Japanese foreign minister needs to come clean and tell Taiwanese that not only Japan will not get involved in Taiwan War, but Japan intends to prohibit the US military from launching military intervention from Okinawa due to the threat of China declaring Japan an enemy combatant and bombard Tokyo with hundreds of ballistic missiles, ensuring that Taiwan fall to PLA quickly in the best interest of Japan's national security.

This hopefully will send a jolt in Taiwan and get Taiwanese serious about its own defense instead of hoping for foreign intervention that will probably never come, not even from the US.

Why would any country want to get involved in this? Taiwan is a part of China... this isn't even disputed at all. The people are the same ethnic group (Han Chinese, speaking Mandarin) and the government of Taiwan literally claims itself to be the true government of China, which includes all of the mainland as well.

The US just backs Taiwan as a separate entity as a means to antagonize China. It's a point of geopolitical leverage. But in the end, the notion of fighting a war over this is madness. Taiwan will come under the control of the mainland government in the end, this is inevitable. The only issue is how this will be negotiated. The US will demand some concessions, in exchange.

Either that, or the mad men in Washington may try to use it a pretext to actually start a war with China (since China threatens the US-led globalist system), but this would be the most insane thing imaginable.

90 percent of Americans do not know where Taiwan is, only the US Congress can declare on China, just like they did Japan

90 percent probably also thought Tokyo was the capital of Hong Kong.

There are loads of Youtube videos out there demonstrating Americans' lack of knowledge when it comes to basic geography. Confusing Australia and New Zealand with North and South Korea, for example.

Why would any country want to get involved in this? Taiwan is a part of China... this isn't even disputed at all.

Even the colonial powers like US and UK admit to this. Japan should look out for themselves instead of getting dragged into America's wars. They've already dragged UK and Australia. PM Tony Blair will only ever be known for one thing.

Many Taiwanese think Japan would aid Taiwan if China attacks: poll

Many Taiwanese think wrong.

@Pukey2

Japan should look out for themselves instead of getting dragged into America's wars. 

Taiwan could possibly be saved if Japan allows the US to launch military intervention from Okinawa. But then Japan becomes an official combatant of Taiwan War and China can legally bombard Tokyo with hundreds of ballistic missiles, and it is this threat of Chinese attack that is deterring Japan from letting the US fight from Okinawa.

Without access to Okinawan bases, the US simply can't generate enough sorties to fend off hundreds of incoming PLA fighter jets and bombers.

I would expect Japan's response to a Chinese attack on Taiwan to be to issue a strongly worded statement encouraging all nations to respect international laws.

If the US attempts to liberate Taiwan after a rapid assault, Japan would be expected to act as a local base of operations.

I doubt the US would do that. Without actually declaring war on China and attacking the mainland, it would be very difficult for the US to retake and defend Taiwan. And if they can't beat the Taliban, they won't want to go head-to-head with the Chinese.

It is more likely that the US would sanction all trade and travel with China (and by extension occupied Taiwan) and order its allies to do likewise. That would dent the Japanese economy and cause a global recession. Tech prices would skyrocket and almost everything would run short. Brexit for everyone.

El Rata, I have to agree. People are delusional if they think they can envision Japan going to war with China over Taiwan. It simply won’t happen.

The Biden administration would find some reason to stay out of that conflict too, you can bank on that.

But it should also be noted that such a narrative is exactly what Beijing is trying to propagate.

I think you know that too, you just wanted an excuse to disparage Mr. Biden with ad hominem.

Definitely not. I’m just giving a realistic assessment. I say again, Biden will not go to war with China over Taiwan.

order its allies

Yep, America ordering again. Allies need to remember that they're also being spied upon by America. Angela Merkel found out the hard way.

@Zichi

America would need the Japanese permission to use their bases here to strike against the Chinese.

Bingo

Congress would impeach and convict him as fast as they could count the votes. Congress would not tolerate any kind of delay in defending Taiwan.

I think this statement is ridiculous.

Nope! Not in the way that they think. Japan still wants the US to protect them from the rest of the world. Taiwan should stick with the US. They have better chance though slim.

Definitely not. I’m just giving a realistic assessment. I say again, Biden will not go to war with China over Taiwan.

That is what China wants Taiwan and the rest of the world to believe. They want to create doubt and a lack of confidence in the US. If it was trump in office definitely not. Biden, I am not sure. Japan and the US must realize that if Taiwan falls. It may be a precursor to the Sankaku, Japan, Guam and Hawaii. Not necessarily in that order though I doubt China wants a head to head battle with the US, yet.

@Numan

It may be a precursor to the Sankaku,

Diaoyu Islands were Chinese territories to begin with which Japan has failed to return per the terms of surrender. Diaoyu Islands should be returned at the earliest possible time.

Japan, Guam and Hawaii. 

China doesn't claim Japan, Guam, and Hawaii.

The consistent anti-LDP JT community is exchanging opinions whether Japan would come and help Taiwan?

On top of that Japan is backed by US army which has right now the weakest leadership that great nation has ever seen.

Hence China knew the perfect time to make noise.

In the survey, 64.3 percent of the respondents disagreed that China would one day invade

kennyGToday  09:33 am JST

Unfortunately, the average Yamato men have become weak people, who care only about the latest manga or fashion trend, without an inch of patriotism who would kneel and cry in surrender at the first sight of the PLA.

Isn't that what's happening to China men and South Korean men? I see lots of young men here working out

more than ever, martial arts booming more than ever.

You clearly don't know that South Korea has mandatory military service. All men must undergo almost 2yrs of military training. If you gave a gun to Japanese man, he'd probably shoot himself by accident or maybe on purpose.

You clearly don't know that South Korea has mandatory military service. All men must undergo almost 2yrs of military training. 

Yes. Somewhat different from primping in front of the mirror at the gym.

The Taiwanese army's morale is low. See WSJ article (subscription needed.)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/taiwan-military-readiness-china-threat-us-defense-11635174187

They don’t want to fight anybody, there is no desire to die for it. Most of the soldiers will run for the hills or go home. There are predictions that they will surrender without even a fight despite what the foreign minister says fighting down to the last man.

It is an American war, they don’t want to die for the Americans and destroy their homes. Let Americans go fight the war in someone else’s homeland. Most Taiwanese have been to China, they know when China takes over, life will go on as usual.

Their mandatory conscription service 4 months. What can you do in four months? Compare that with South Korea's.

Japan would be backed into a corner and have no choice. If Taiwan fell without Japan putting up a fight, the Chinese would attack Okinawa next, and they wouldn't wait years to do so.

This is way out there. China will not attack Okinawa or Japan. Anybody who believes this is out of touch with reality.

Only in propaganda. The Japanese would be the last nation on earth to help and will use their pacifist constitution as an excuse.

Even in the unlikely hypothetical of an attack on Taiwan, Japan wouldn't help because they can't. Logistical support for other nations is about as far as they'd ever go.

Unless people think the constitution is going to change before then.

Weird poll to be conducting honestly. I would like a link to the actual survey to see how the question was framed.

On top of that Japan is backed by US army which has right now the weakest leadership that great nation has ever seen.

No that was the last 4 years when trump was in office (surrendering to the Taliban, releasing 5,000 Taliban soldiers, wanting to invite them to the US). Syria, too. All for a Nobel prize like Pres. Obama received and a trump hotel in Turkey!

trump removed any capable military that did not capitulate to his ego. trump made military leadership weak.

China is still combat weak because India recently spanked their butts during recent border disputes.

Very unwise thinking on the Taiwanese part.

Thomas GoodtimeToday  01:38 pm JST

How about Japan invades Taiwan first?

Again?

Japan has never invaded Taiwan has it.

You clearly don't know that South Korea has mandatory military service. All men must undergo almost 2yrs of military training. If you gave a gun to Japanese man, he'd probably shoot himself by accident or maybe on purpose.

Oh Really? just 2 year military service improves the strength as men dramatically in fighting war? Japan should start the same. Mandatory military service. You agree to make it legal here in Japan don't you?

Weird poll to be conducting honestly. I would like a link to the actual survey to see how the question was framed.

English translation seems not ready yet.

https://www.tpof.org/%e5%85%a9%e5%b2%b8%e9%97%9c%e4%bf%82/2021%e5%b9%b411%e6%9c%882%e6%97%a5%e3%80%8c%e5%85%a9%e5%b2%b8%e8%bb%8d%e4%ba%8b%e5%8d%b1%e6%a9%9f%e4%b8%8b%e7%9a%84%e5%8f%b0%e7%81%a3%e6%b0%91%e6%84%8f%e3%80%8d/

It might be almost impossible for Japan to aid Tawian when (not if) China invades. Aid would likely be logistical support for the US forces since Japan does not have the capabilities of attacking or defending Taiwan. That said, China could potentially attack Japanese assets if the JDF takes part directly. Furthermore, the Chinese could cripple Japanese imports and exports if shipping lanes are targeted or blocked. The invasion could also go nuclear if the Chinese get desperate enough. In any case, this will either be a quick Afghan/Crimean-like takeover with local forces giving up right away and fleeing, or it could be a long drawn out conflict that I hope I'm not alive to see. We are not talking hundreds or thousands dead, but millions. The Chinese have proven they don't care about human life.

kennyGToday  01:54 pm JST

Thomas GoodtimeToday  01:38 pm JST

How about Japan invades Taiwan first?

Again?

Japan has never invaded Taiwan has it.

You clearly don't know that South Korea has mandatory military service. All men must undergo almost 2yrs of military training. If you gave a gun to Japanese man, he'd probably shoot himself by accident or maybe on purpose.

Oh Really? just 2 year military service improves the strength as men dramatically in fighting war? Japan should start the same. Mandatory military service. You agree to make it legal here in Japan don't you?

Yes it is. US marines basic boot camp is 13wks followed by up to 3 months in specialized training such the school of infantry. Of course training never stops if it's your career. How long does an expert like you think is needed?

Sure I agree. But I'm not Japanese so I wouldn't have a vote nor would I have to serve. You on the other hand....

Of course training never stops if it's your career.

You are already answering to yourself.

Oh Really? just 2 year military service improves the strength as men dramatically in fighting war?

So how about the Taiwanese mandatory 4 months? They are essentially a volunteer army after that.

The survey published this week by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation showed that 58 percent of the people polled said they think it possible that Japan would dispatch troops for Taiwan's defense, while 35 percent of the respondents said they did not think so.

Japan is not going to get involved because it would mean all US bases in Japan are fair game. The key word in the survey of this article is "possible" but the responses are as if the survey asked if they believed Japan "will" dispatch troops for Taiwan's defense. It's possible but Japan will not in my opinion.

kennyGToday  02:11 pm JST

Of course training never stops if it's your career.

You are already answering to yourself.

You asked if 2yrs is enough to improve strength dramatically as fighting men not as career military. person I answered. Maybe you need to improve your English as well.

You must be dreaming if you think the USA military needs Japan's permission to do anything.

If you think the USA military cares about Japan your sadly mistaken.

Japan is an occupied territory of considerable strategic importance and its constitution is written by the USA.

Thomas GoodtimeToday  02:23 pm JST

Japan has never invaded Taiwan has it.

@kennyG

A history book would be a valid purchase for Christmas.

You should try reading one yourself. Taiwan was ceded to Japan by the Qing Dynasty in accordance with the Treaty of Shimonoseki. Japan never invade it.

Japan has never invaded Taiwan has it.

@kennyG

A history book would be a valid purchase for Christmas.

China - the Qing dynasty - lost the Nisshin Senso (Sino-Japanese War) to Japan and as a result, gave up rights to the territory of Taiwan. The people of Taiwan resisted and Japan invaded the island. The war lasted five months.

Will America militarily defend Taiwan in a conflict with China? That depends entirely on who is President of the US at the time and his or her wishes.

In 1999 when Bill Clinton was POTUS, The US most reliable ally Australia took charge of a United Nations force to intervene in East Timor and allow a vote on independence from Indonesia. Australia asked the US to provide a small force to assist as was being provided by other nations like the UK, New Zealand, Thailand and many other but the US under Clinton declined to send any troops as he would not allow US forces to be commanded by an Australian general. After all the times Aussie troops had been placed under US command the one time Australia requested US assistance it was declined. The US did provide some logistical assistance but no troops to assist the INTERFET force under Australian command.

Being an ally even a close one is no guarantee that the US will help when you ask for it. Australia is well aware of the limitations of being a US ally and it being dependent on who hold the highest office there.

As for Japan helping Taiwan. As an old "colony" of Japan there are those with good feelings and memories of Japan and they may like to think Japan would come to it's aid in a time of trouble but again there are no guarantees that it would.

If neither the US nor Japan help Taiwan against China the AUKUS and QUAD could not get involved as both have US involvement and one has Japanese. India and Australia alone will not intervene.

It would be a very difficult time for everyone as such a conflict could drag in other nations and escalate quickly into a world war. WWI started from the assassination of one person in Europe and ended with many millions dead. WWII was started in a number of zones and grew together through alliances to another global conflict again costing many millions of lives. WWIII is to be avoided at any cost at this time of climate crisis where the world needs to focus resources on protecting the planet not to use them to kill tens of millions of lives and destroying cities that will need to be rebuilt after it is over assuming there are enough survivors.

Taiwan is a global concern and China must realize this before taking any military actions against it.

The young Taiwanese and Japanese men are into watching Tik Tok, YouTube and making videos on how to pickup girls. They are enjoying life. They were born in times of peace and have no desire to go to war. The mandatory conscription is something they have to do for a few months but few would want a career. In terms of the length of service, a Vietnamese military leader gave his insights on how the US lost the Vietnam War.

According to General Giap the Vietnamese military leader, the US lost mainly because of one factor: they let their people go home after a year of duty. As soon as an American soldier became competent and experienced he was sent home and replaced by an inexperienced man. Not only that, they really only got 9 months of good service out of one soldier, because for the the first few weeks he was learning the ropes and in the last months he was hiding from danger.

General Giap said if the Americans had told their people that they were going to stay in Vietnam until they either won, or they were dead, there was not much the Viet Cong could have done to win.

The will to win is key. The people of Taiwan have seen their military in a negative light due to perceptions that mandatory military service is a “waste of time” even if just 4 months and that Taiwan’s chances of prevailing in a war against China are meager as the gap in military capabilities continues to widen.

We will do everything we can for Taiwan.

You should try reading one yourself. Taiwan was ceded to Japan by the Qing Dynasty in accordance with the Treaty of Shimonoseki. Japan never invade it.

The last sentence is incorrect. It was not a peaceful transformation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_invasion_ofTaiwan(1895)

Many Taiwanese think Japan would aid Taiwan if China attacks: poll

I hope they are right, but alas I doubt it. I pray Taiwan survives the next 4 years.

China can't attack Taiwan without suffering heavy casualties attempting to cross the straights to gain a beach head using an amphibious assault and modern air defence systems would pretty much negate an airborne drop in sufficient numbers to make headway. The fact that they claim that the population and the country means that bombing of the innocent civilians going about their normal routine as would happen if there was an attempt to bludgeon them into submission or destroy the country's defence systems would be tantamount to murder of their own population and could lead to a full scale insurrection on the mainland or the system turning on the administration and prosecution for crime's against the people. The only way that they're going to gain power in Taiwan is if some fool is elected and invites them in like the idiotic bunch that thought they had a deal in Hong Kong.

Taiwan will get support from not only US and Japan but also Australia.

Though I don't think xi has the courage to invade Taiwan, he is more of a barking dog with no bite.

Any such invasion will set off domestic turmoil in China and the CCP is paranoid about any such thing happening.

The poll also showed that 65 percent of the respondents believed the United States would come to Taiwan's aid militarily should China invade, while 28.5 percent felt it would not.

So the Taiwanese by large aren't buying the Chinese government propaganda that the US wouldn't be defending them after what happened in Afghanistan. Good for them. Everyone shouldn't be buying it neither

The US has a law which requires it to help Taiwan defend itself

H.R.2479 - Taiwan Relations Act

https://www.congress.gov/bill/96th-congress/house-bill/2479

States that the United States shall provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character and shall maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or social or economic system, of the people of Taiwan.

But it pursues a policy of "strategic ambiguity," where it is deliberately vague about what it would actually do if China were to attack Taiwan

Taiwan will get support from not only US and Japan but also Australia.

Australian support would be limited. A few ships and fighter planes would be all. Maybe a battalion of troops. The Australian forces are small in number. They are modern but limited.

That government can't take care of themselves.

Why would they bother

@losttune2

What you're citing is old, 1979. They had the Taiwan Defense Act but threw Taiwan under the bus and downgraded it to the Taiwan Relations Act which does not obligate the US to defend Taiwan but only to support it by providing arms. One is a security act. The other is only support through the sale of arms.

What you need for your argument is the Taiwan Defense Act of 2021, this is the upgrade from the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, but it is only a bill.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/96th-congress/house-bill/2479

Two days ago on Nov 2nd, Senator Hawley of Missouri introduced a new bill, the Arm Taiwan Act of 2021, which is a revamped version bolstering Taiwan's defense in case of an invasion from China.

What this means folks, is that the US is not going to fight side by side with the Taiwanese in the event of an attempt by China to take Taiwan. The US will sell arms but it will not go to to war against China.

Another way to look at this is that Taiwan is a paying customer, a performing tenant. Keep making your sales pitch of an aggressive China and keep selling arms to Taiwan and Australia. Why kill the goose that lays the golden eggs?

When the Republic of China, supported by the US lost to the People's Republic of China, many of the weapons and technology given to the ROC were abandoned as the losing party fled to Taiwan. Much like in Afghanistan, the enemy has access to US weapons technology. Despite its willingness to arm Taiwan, the US is only selling the old fighters and not the latest. They do not want the F-35 to fall into the hands of China and reasonably expect the island to be taken back by China.

Evaluating whether US would go to war against China involves the weighing of the following:

a) bill for the Taiwan Defense Act has made no progress.

b) No changes made to its China/Taiwan policy

c) no sales of the F-35 and the latest weapons to Taiwan with expectations of China taking Taiwan.

Australian support would be limited. A few ships and fighter planes would be all. Maybe a battalion of troops. The Australian forces are small in number. They are modern but limited.

China doesn't have the ability to fight long wars, the longer they fight the more unrest grows within the country.

Even if there is a war, which I seriously doubt as China doesn't have the courage to actually fight, it will be short and will be over within a few days. The Chinese will withdraw declaring they achieved their purposes(whatever they might be)

Thomas GoodtimeToday  03:51 pm JST

You should try reading one yourself. Taiwan was ceded to Japan by the Qing Dynasty in accordance with the Treaty of Shimonoseki. Japan never invade it.

Erm, you're wrong @ossan.

Japan tried to enter Taiwan, the Taiwanese people resisted, there was a short war. Japan won. Japanese rule.

If that isn't invasion, then I don't know what is.

You don't know what an "invasion" is. A country can not "invade" a territory that they already legally own. Unless invasion precedes ownership, it's not an invasion.

No battles between Japanese and Qing forces took place in Taiwan. The battles were off Korea, since the Sino-Japanese War of 1894/95 was all about control of the Korean Penninsula. The Qing only had 40-45% control of Taiwan. Resistance from the indigenous head hunting aboriginals doesn't count as a war because they did not legally represent Taiwan.

A bit of humility in admitting you don't understand the concept of "invasion" would be the correct way to behave here

That Japan may come to Taiwan's aid should there be military conflicts between mainland China and Taiwan is a pipe dream on the part of the Taiwanese, many of whom seem not to know anything about the war-renouncing constitution. 

But note that, for the conservative Japanese politicians who are now in power, war-renouncing Article 9 of the constitution is virtually nonexistent. So, what would they say when they were urged to come to Taiwan's aid in such conflicts?