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Musk warns Japan will cease to exist if birthrate continues decline

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We've been saying this for years.

35 ( +46 / -11 )

Problem for us in Japan is that the powers that be really don't care as long as all is fine and dandy for the next decade or so until they croak.

21 ( +37 / -16 )

Many countries have a lower fertility rate than Japan, e.g. Spain, Italy, Finland, South Korea.

Reducing the population is quite different from removing it altogether.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate

17 ( +31 / -14 )

They could encourage more foreigners to immigrate to support their economy but we all know that won’t happen

1 ( +32 / -31 )

Musk has 8 children.

The economic disparity between him and a working class Japanese may give a hint as to why there is a population decline in Japan.

As Twitter is a popular social media platform in Japan, if Musk would enable the weaponization of Twitter to attack the ruling LDP and its policies he could actively promote an "Arab Spring" style take-down of the LDP and a turnaround of the policies that have led to this decline.

That is all quite speculative though; like this article.

22 ( +33 / -11 )

The birth rate is less than 2 kids for every 2 adults. So one doesn't have to be a rocket scientist to work it out. Is Japan going to increase taxes on the richest 2% by at least 3 or 4 times and give it to families to encourage more kids or is Japan going to stick to free market principles and go extinct?

7 ( +22 / -15 )

Why is anything this fools says on any subject news?

He has said some of the dumbest things in existence and occasionally says something bright.

And again here he goes saying something stupid.

"The sky is falling, the sky is falling!"

No is isn't!

Ok population is going down yep and it will eventually stop and flatten out somewhere around 60 to 80 million people and in a tiny country the size of Japan that is plenty and with the fact we have mostly moved away from manual labour manufacturing and high use of robotics, we no longer need a continuously growing population.

Of both France and the UK can do fine with around 60 million Japan will do just fine also.

Heck South Korea only has 51.7 million.

Oh and remember 80% of Japan's Dept is owned by the Japanese population the vast majority of that by the older generation in Japanese bonds which the government will tax upon their death and again tax as part of any inheritance.

So no worries about that part and the drop in population.

-7 ( +26 / -33 )

Quality,not quantity.

8 ( +18 / -10 )

Japan will still be here.

There will still be Japanese, probably.

Just not in Japan.

-8 ( +10 / -18 )

The aging population is a problem, but Japan won't "stop existing". This guy has neither the capacity nor empathy to be taken seriously on this subject.

-10 ( +15 / -25 )

dagon

Today 05:19 pm JST

Musk has 8 children.

Yep and failed relationships with everyone of the mothers.

He also tried calling his son "X Æ A-12" and when that was rejected. "X Æ A-Xii" and then X AE A-XII Musk, with "X" as a first name, "AE A-XII" as a middle name, and "Musk" as surname.

Luckily the kid is rich otherwise he will be in for one sad existence and ridicule on a regular basis.

This guy is a poster child for the disconnect the ultra rich have with reality and the daily lives of regular people.

6 ( +17 / -11 )

Hmm great incite... the numbers say it all less births more deaths equals declining population. Does it really take a rocket... company owner to say this.

Any way will be at least 80+ years before these 831,000 new babies are extinct and any thing can happen between then and now. Like say a nuclear war.

0 ( +5 / -5 )

It’s amazing how far left liberals have run. Crazy that now most leftists criticize Elon Musk on every topic, despite him being a leftist himself.

-16 ( +12 / -28 )

It’s amazing how far left liberals have run. Crazy that now most leftists criticize Elon Musk on every topic, despite him being a leftist himself.

You probably should educate yourself more about what the terms "liberal" and "leftist" mean Blacklabel, particularly about Musk as it seems he is becoming a darling of the right.

The terms do not mean what you think they mean.

8 ( +18 / -10 )

He needs to do a course on semiconductors, robotics and population demographic effects in the 21st century. The world is overpopulated.

0 ( +8 / -8 )

The terms do not mean what you think they mean.

Absolutely they do. Musk is a leftist. His company already agreed for paying transportation costs for out of state abortions, as one example.

you just mad cause he won’t ban the free speech of people who disagree with you. Other than that, he is a leftist.

-8 ( +12 / -20 )

”becoming” a darling of the right would require that he is on the left.

he didn’t say anything that isn’t correct yet leftists are super mad here.

-5 ( +14 / -19 )

His own words:

“Billionaire Elon Musk insists he is a liberal — but is viewed as a far-right “bigot” because “woke progressives” are pushing the left to extremes.”

so I think what he means is Japan as we know it will not exist. What happens when nearly everyone in Japan is half non Japanese? and when walking around in Tokyo looks no different than in any other world city as far as people you see.

then “Japan” ceases to exist.

-19 ( +9 / -28 )

you just mad cause he won’t ban the free speech of people who disagree with you. Other than that, he is a leftist.

Hilarious.

Musk may be a leftist as he supports a UBI and is an admirer of Iain Banks.

And though I do not share a similar bank account, I fully support free speech as he professes to do.

Weak repeated talking points and partisanship erode free speach and discourse by the way.

2 ( +7 / -5 )

how am I wrong? Do tourists want to come to Japan to see 3/4ths of the people in Tokyo are half or full Caucasians and everyone speaking in English?

liberals don’t understand that by calling Musk far right all they are doing is normalizing the far right.

Then they gotta go alt right to get the supposed “bad” people. But that’s not who alt right is. So “Ultra MAGA” is born!

-8 ( +9 / -17 )

im doing my part

9 ( +10 / -1 )

Until 80s, Japanese parents (just like almost all Asian) urge their children to get married soon around 25 and have kids before 30.

Things have changed. They can't do that anymore otherwise they will get sued by their own children and children these days are into their world of social networking, games and media rather than focusing on making a family.

In 2004 Japanese movie "Blood and Bones", Takeshi Kitano wanted a son but always kept having daughters until one day, a son was successful. That mindset is lost in Japanese young society.

1 ( +6 / -5 )

If left alone and nothing is done, Those children born today will be paying for a pension debt at a unseen 65% in income tax each year to cover for this monoculture mentality.

10 ( +12 / -2 )

A country’s population decline will not necessarily follow the course plotted by a negative exponential curve. It will level off at some point. Japan’s birthrate keeps declining simply because those in prime childbearing age, people in their 20s and 30s, are earning less than their parents and cannot afford to have a family.

7 ( +10 / -3 )

Tells everyone what we already know.

6 ( +7 / -1 )

That’s odd because when he was a liberal back in 2015 he invented lots of things.

https://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/13/elon-musks-10-greatest-inventions-changing-the-world.html

so many that he has a 10 greatest list. Wow prolific inventor. What’s that mean?

Elon Musk may just be the 21st century’s Thomas Edison. 

The prolific inventor’s inventions have won him multiple entrepreneur and innovator-of-the-year awards — and are a regular topic of discussion among both business leaders and consumers.

-5 ( +7 / -12 )

Readers, please comment on what Musk said, and refrain from using words like "leftist" or "rightist." Those are pejorative words and have no relevance.

so I think what he means is Japan as we know it will not exist. What happens when nearly everyone in Japan is half non Japanese? and when walking around in Tokyo looks no different than in any other world city as far as people you see.

then “Japan” ceases to exist.

Great take

-6 ( +4 / -10 )

Ok population is going down yep and it will eventually stop and flatten out somewhere around 60 to 80 million people and in a tiny country the size of Japan that is plenty and with the fact we have mostly moved away from manual labour manufacturing and high use of robotics, we no longer need a continuously growing population.

On the contrary, in terms of resources sure it is better we do not exceed our capacity to house such a population, but in terms of our nationwide debt we will need a growing population that can contribute to the overall growth as well as taxes to help reduce the debt that was accumulated at a time when babies were booming and money was carelessly spent.

There is no guarantee that the decrease will flatten any time soon with little to no attention coming from the government to address these issues. Sure automation will be great, but unless this technology is homegrown, it will be way too costly to implement trying to replace the old infrastructure with the new.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

Blacklabel

Today 06:14 pm JST

how am I wrong? Do tourists want to come to Japan to see 3/4ths of the people in Tokyo are half or full Caucasians and everyone speaking in English?

Now explain were all these non Japanese and half are going to come from?

Lest see for that to happen Japanese would have to marry non Japanese, and the number of "international" marriages peaked in 2006 at 40,000 and has declined ever since to around 20,000 ( Japanese and non Japanese marriages per year.

Now to put that into context there are on average 500,000 to 600,000 marriages in Japan per year.

So how are a little more than 4% of new married couples mixed) going to out produce children over the other 96% (Japanese/Japanese) ?

2 ( +5 / -3 )

There are almost 3 million foreigners living in Japan.almost a 50% increase in the last 10 years.

Non Japanese people can be created by a mother or a father who is not Japanese or even if both are not.

marriage is not necessary to create children, by the way. You also leave out all the 50,000+ US military who create children here in the local population.

-8 ( +3 / -11 )

marriage is not necessary to create children, by the way. You also leave out all the 50,000+ US military who create children here in the local population.

Wow you really don't understand!

50,000 us military not one of those children gets to remain in Japan unless one parent is Japanese.

This is not the USA being born here doesn't give you the right to remain or Neva citizen.

4 ( +7 / -3 )

If the current trend of propagandising women to be corporate servants continues, then of course it will

3 ( +7 / -4 )

50,000 us military not one of those children gets to remain in Japan unless one parent is Japanese

One parent is. The Japanese wife of the US military person.

-6 ( +4 / -10 )

growing population that can contribute to the overall growth as well as taxes to help reduce the debt that was accumulated at a time when babies were booming and money was carelessly spent.

Now try taking off the Foreigner hat and look at facts on Japan.

Unlike the USA and others that the Dept is owed to other countries.

80% of Japan's debt is owed internally mostly in Japanese government bonds.

The vast majority of those bonds owned by the Japanese population mostly the elderly.

The interest rate is negligible on top of that when these people pass away their children will inherit them and there's an inheritance tax here so any interest will be taken back in higher taxes.

2 ( +6 / -4 )

Let him worried about his own problems. Even if we lose half the population, we will still do fine. Might not be able to stay at the top of economic powers with other countries anymore but at least we will still do fine. Is the cycle of life. There is no such thing as a constant increase on population. That is just bad for the environment and for the nation. Better for the sea too as we don't need to consume as much sea food too.

Maybe for once, the large cities will finally experience a decrease on people that make buying land and houses less expensive. Less competition in the work force also means more choices to choose your dream job with better pay.

-4 ( +5 / -9 )

Blacklabel

Today 06:45 pm JST

You are funny.

50,000 USA military, how many are married, and how many of those are to Japanese?

Seriously.

20,000 Japanese to non Japanese marriages per year vs 500,000 plus Japanese and Japanese marriages per year and you are still going to try and say mixed children or non Japanese children will bout number the Japanese/ Japanese children.

They ( foreigners and mixed couples ) had better have 5 to 10 children each!

5 ( +8 / -3 )

Even the most doomsday scenario projects a bounce back from the bottom at around 50 million within 100 years. Japan had 70 million right after the end of WWII while its economy was of course devastated, with high adult men casualty. Compared to that, the current situation is not so bad.

Japan's government has long struggled with the challenges of a graying population and a declining workforce, and has hoped to ease the labor shortage by attempting to increase foreign workers under a relaxed visa system.

The active immigration policy is not a quick, direct solution to the problem of rapid population decline at the macro level. But perhaps it may help the Japanese couples afford to have a kid or more. My quick idea is a new visa scheme for au pair. They would take some household burdens from the working couples, boost incomes needed to cover childcare expenses. It's successful and welcome if immigrants would give the host Japanese people and community some incentive for child-rearing.

-4 ( +3 / -7 )

Thanks for the tip, bruh.

Mind blowing info!

-1 ( +4 / -5 )

“Musk” and “tweet” is all you need to know here ;-)

5 ( +9 / -4 )

You heard him men, time to save Japan. I'm sure my wife won't mind if she knows it's for the good of the nation.

4 ( +8 / -4 )

Even the most doomsday scenario projects a bounce back from the bottom at around 50 million within 100 years. Japan had 70 million right after the end of WWII while its economy was of course devastated, with high adult men casualty. Compared to that, the current situation is not so bad.

I don't know meh. I rememebr i nthe 50s/60s being todold by now I should have flying cars, police use non-lethal lasers guns, and tobots have already allowed mankind to spend the day eating food in pill form. I can in no way see how anyone can future proof society and speculate on future birthrates. Aside from economical and ecological factors, modern Japanese feminism (women preferring careers over having children and/or getting married), and other sociological and political factors, there is no indication that the trend of the declining birthrate could or would in fact level off.

4 ( +7 / -3 )

I don't know what's the obsession of the Media with Musk.

A news article of a comment he made on Twitter on another Tweet that is actually pretty common (and even he said so).

5 ( +7 / -2 )

Anybody noticed it but Japanese.

The population worldwide is not falling but increasing. The declining population is not so bad in that sense but the main problem of Japan is they still largely relying on manual labors. They are far behind the other developed countries about IT adoption. Anybody from other countries would be sick of too many paper works, too many tedious works to be just formal, etc.

Japan should adopt automation technologies much more than any other countries by taking advantage of shrinking population instead of replacing native citizens with foreigners that's the worst measure.

2 ( +6 / -4 )

He is a great guy and all but, what happens in this nation is not his business

-3 ( +2 / -5 )

After the baby boomers are gone, Japan will get a huge inheritance tax and a sharp decline in pension payments. Government budgets will then be used to address the declining birthrate.

-4 ( +2 / -6 )

This isn't news, Musk just stating what everyone Ealready knows and the government does nothing about it.

3 ( +7 / -4 )

He is a big fan of Japanese animation, and he does not want to see a decrease in the number of Japanese.

0 ( +3 / -3 )

there is no indication that the trend of the declining birthrate could or would in fact level off.

The poster was probably referring to declining population, not declining birthrate, in what you quoted. If at the point the poster mentioned death rate declined to a level lower than the birthrate then population starts to bounce back

2 ( +4 / -2 )

Musk makes valid points. If the 840, 000 Japanese babies born in Japan in 2022 stay in Japan, reach adulthood in 25 or 35 years time and match up with each other and have at least one child. Then expect around 420,000 babies in 25 to 35 years time. Meanwhile expect maybe 1 to 1.5 million deaths each year. Therefore a net loss of 1 million Japanese people. A simplistic mathematical calculation that doesn't account for migration or other factors but you get the point. This is neither good for the economy or maintaining Japanese culture. What we need is an article on possible solutions with a spectrum of minor to more drastic policies.

5 ( +6 / -1 )

What? Is Japan Musk's business now?

2 ( +6 / -4 )

Even more dramatic is the to be expected accelerated economic downwards spiral. With only a few young people left, you have to put them all into caring and self defense jobs. So there’s no one left for inventing and developing new products and services that sell on the global market to bring the necessary money in for financing that big aging and money dependent society and to give something to the few left massively overworked youth too. The decreasing in population seen isolated might not be considered good or bad in itself, but the accompanying problems are overwhelming of course. And of course the pressure from outside countries with rising overpopulation will also knock on the door then, additional to those known territories occupiers Russia and China. They also surely want something from the getting smaller remaining cake and a nice big place at the table or just the whole cake and the table at once, who knows. That can be occupying immigration streams from other South or South East Asian countries, India, Africa or altogether. That’s still not exactly foreseeable in detail. So Musk’s warning is of course right, but it is as late and probably ignored as all of our similar warnings too.

-2 ( +4 / -6 )

As supply and demand brings a market to equilibrium,

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

As supply and demand brings a market to equilibrium,

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

With all due respect, they can just clone people like he cloned his hair follicles. Looking good!

-5 ( +2 / -7 )

Some comments here are having the same intelligence level as Musk with his comment, which is low.

World population is increasing and all those people want phones, cars etc. so climate change will do more harm to everyone than just Japan losing some numbers on population.

-1 ( +4 / -5 )

kokontozai

Today 07:41 pm JST

After the baby boomers are gone, Japan will get a huge inheritance tax and a sharp decline in pension payments. Government budgets will then be used to address the declining birthrate.

Finally someone that got it!

Tokyo and other major cities complain about land size getting smaller, some like my ward pass laws requiring larger land to build on an demand an end to inheritance tax because each time a piece b6 land is inherited the children cut part to sell to pay taxes and build on the other part.

But the national government knowing the baby boomers hold all the government debt in Japanese bonds, has no intention of not getting ba good part back in taxes and inheritance tax.

Like you said once most of that has been settled, then insensitives to raise the population may be in the books.

-2 ( +3 / -5 )

Fact is that Musk isn't wrong. The greying population and falling birthrate are not news. Though it is a bit hyperbolic.

1 ( +4 / -3 )

Musk is great with space travel and tunneling. Social engineering not so much. Still he will say things, and a lot of those things really don’t matter.

-1 ( +3 / -4 )

Why is anything this fools says on any subject news?

Exactly. When I read this on Yahoo News, I thought, "Oh, this will make big headlines in Japan, even though the entire country knows about this already. However, just because Musk mentioned it its news." I really wonder what he is going to say or tweet or buy tomorrow. Just riveting.

-4 ( +2 / -6 )

All hail the great, and wonderful Musk! He who knoweth everything and must be quoted always, as if his views are those of an expert. Slow news day again I guess.

-1 ( +3 / -4 )

Here are the realities.

By 2040 the population will be around 105 to 110 million by 2050 95 to 100 million.

Clains that if the current decline continues as is by 2100 the population will be down to half the present 125 million ( around 60 million) is flawed because the number of elderly passing away will decline far more rapidly.

What this means at one point the number of people dying will get lower each year to the point that birth and death will either equal out or cross meaning births will start outnumbering deaths.

Regardless a population of 60 million is more than sufficient in a country as small as Japan.

If South Korea and the UK can do well with 60 million so can Japan.

3 ( +9 / -6 )

I have lived in Tokyo for 29 years. Perhaps there are areas in the inaka that might vanish, but major cities are still overrun with people, and I see young couples and their screaming, uncontrollable brats everywhere I go. Japan will not cease to exist. But hopefully, one day, Musk will, along with Clownfish, Putrid, Kim Jong Junk, and Chairman Xie.

-3 ( +2 / -5 )

He’s wrong.

0 ( +5 / -5 )

Countries cannot pay people to have babies. More benefits to parents has not worked, anywhere.

Making parenting a more rewarding experience does help.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

No he's right ...

Ah, sorry, I guess I can't use that word... let's just say, he may be correct.

3 ( +5 / -2 )

In Ancient China, a Man could have several Wives - perhaps Japan could do the same for a while, it may make the economics of having a Family more realistic under such strenuous times.

1 ( +5 / -4 )

AntiquesavingToday  05:23 pm JST

Why is anything this fools says on any subject news?

Hilarious. Uses the plural form of fool while labeling a single person a fool.

You don’t have to like Mr, Musk, but I’d wager that he didn’t become the richest man in the world because he’s a fool. Just sayin’

-2 ( +2 / -4 )

Japan is grossly overpopulated, to the point it can't sustain independently a complete life-cycle and is dependent by "borrowing from the future". As such only positive things will result from a drop in population to more sustainable levels... the Elon(gated) Musk(rat) has no idea what he's talking about.

-3 ( +2 / -5 )

This missive on birth rates came on the same day that Mr. Musk, in a tweet, said that he might die "under mysterious circumstances." This following Roscosmos executive Dmitry Rogozin expressing anger at Elon for Starlink terminals for the Ukraines, reportedly saying that Mr. Elon plays a fool and will be held accountable.

Complicated being Elon Musk, isn't it.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Musk has the money without the wisdom, which means that one day his "Midas" touch will desert him and corrupt him absolutely and fatally. But Japan will still be around to see him off.

-3 ( +2 / -5 )

Japan's government has long struggled with the challenges of a graying population and a declining workforce"

No..Japan,s govt has not " struggled" with it at all. It has dithered and done big fat zero to arrest the decline. Except having a zillion " expert panels" studying the issue ad nausea. This is the Japanese way.

-4 ( +5 / -9 )

Japan will soon face a perfect storm.

The wealthy business owners will love the depreciated yen as it benefits their export oriented business. They themselves are impervious to the inflation induced by the depreciated yen. However they have no interest in procreation - preferring poodles instead.

The working class who toil for their low salaries are further burdened from inflation. They want to procreate - but it will have to wait.

The only way out of this is wealth creation -via startups- but at a startup execution is everything. And execution requires a good talent pool. ... which is scare because of ... .

Any way out of this cyclical vortex ?

-4 ( +3 / -7 )

Here is a radical idea: Close the tax loopholes rich people use to frequent hostess bars or somewhat more that that at tax payers expense. Immediately 10s of 1000s of hot chics will be living a normal life, having normal relationships and even the rich people will be at home with their wives much more having more kids.

0 ( +3 / -3 )

What this has shown is the world had went one way and Japan never changed. China is now seeing what happened to their "One Child Policy" now men out number the women and the women have more men to chose from resulting in the women desiring men with high incomes or they stay single. The men who cannot find a bride look to other Asian countries. The mindset of Japan has to change that is on all sides from the Diet to the bedrooms to the corporate boardrooms.

-4 ( +3 / -7 )

Musk is right, and so are those that have been pointing this out for decades. Japan has about 10 years left, max, before it slips to 5th or 6th in world economies, and probably about the same amount of time before the gap between the rich and those living in poverty is so large that Japan will basically be classed as third-world. Yes, some of the burden will be relieved when, as Taro Aso suggested, "Old people hurry up and die to help ease the pension problems", but with no young people being born because the cost is too high, standards of living here will become unsustainable and therefore drop radically. There will be no pension, which is fine because despite paying into it for most of our lives, we won't be able to retire until 75 anyway, if then.

Ever see the movie (or read the book, or maybe even watch the recent drama) "Japan is Sinking"? In it, the PM of Japan suggests it would be better to sink and die as Japanese than move to China (and change the people's lives drastically). I think it's the same mentality with the aging population and depopulation problem: It's easier to change nothing and die off as "Japanese" then increase immigration drastically and run the risk of change.

-4 ( +9 / -13 )

This particular year could be tough because of Covid. I am amused Mr PolyMath has the time to have an opinion on so many things.

-4 ( +0 / -4 )

Such great foresight... Or he could look at any projection of the Japanese population and see that the decline will taper off eventually and the population will stabilize. Of course the projections could be wrong but they are far more reliable than a brain fart of a Twitter user.

The issue isn't whether Japanese people are going extinct, it is the socioeconomical impact of a rapid decline in population and the total ineptitude displayed by the government in preparation of that.

0 ( +6 / -6 )

What this has shown is the world had went one way and Japan never changed. China is now seeing what happened to their "One Child Policy" now men out number the women and the women have more men to chose from resulting in the women desiring men with high incomes or they stay single. The men who cannot find a bride look to other Asian countries. The mindset of Japan has to change that is on all sides from the Diet to the bedrooms to the corporate boardrooms.

Your logic doesn't make sense here. Why does Japan have to change the way they do things because of China's one-child policy?

-5 ( +2 / -7 )

@Blacklabel: ever been to Canada? Probably not, because if you have been here you wouldn't be able to identify an 'ethnic' Canadian. We're all mixed breeds. And we like it that way. The soon it happens to Japan the better. And before you get all high and mighty, I've spent 4-8 weeks covering almost every 'inch' of Japan every year from March 2011 to October 2017. I love the country and it's people. But they have a problem, and that problem isn't the ordinary person, at least not in the main.

-7 ( +2 / -9 )

The Korean strategy of coping with the birth rate of 0.8 is that Koreans would focus on high-skill, high-value work while menial skill jobs would be filled by imported guest workers, already 2 million+.

This is made possible by high-wages of Korea, where even menial skill guest workers can make $2,000~2,500 a month plus free room and board.

This doesn't work for Japan whose wages for even the natives are low. This is why foreign guest workers prefer to go to Korea over Japan nowadays.

-8 ( +6 / -14 )

Mega capitalist supports endless population growth. Surprise, Surprise.

Japan will chart her own course, thank you Musk. She is showing the world that economic growth CAN be achieved with a declining population.

Endless population growth is very bad for 99% of the world's citizens - not to mention the earth - and Musk knows this.

1 ( +5 / -4 )

It is simple math.

If Japanese aren't "reproductive", then they need to allow immigrants to fill the reproductive gaps.

If Japan doesn't have a little over 1 baby for every adult, AND doesn't allow immigration to fill the missing baby gap, then population decline will lead to all sorts of other issues.

Some steps to encourage more babies could happen with a few law changes, especially tax laws and worker support laws for families with younger children.

BTW, China ended their one-child policy in 2015. They switched to 2-children, but that didn't achieve their goals, so they moved to 3-child about a year ago. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-says-each-couple-can-have-three-children-change-policy-2021-05-31/

0 ( +5 / -5 )

Seriously Musk! Anyone with basic math knowledge could tell you that. How about doing something credible with all that cash of yours instead of just spouting off

2 ( +5 / -3 )

Samit Basu

Today 12:29 am JST

The Korean strategy of coping with the birth rate of 0.8 is that Koreans would focus on high-skill, high-value work while menial skill jobs would be filled by imported guest workers, already 2 million+.

> This is made possible by high-wages of Korea, where even menial skill guest workers can make $2,000~2,500 a month plus free room and board.

> This doesn't work for Japan whose wages for even the natives are low. This is why foreign guest workers prefer to go to Korea over Japan nowadays.

I guess South Korea invented that, right?

Ooops, wait, wasn't that what Japan was doing during bthe bubble economy and why all the Brazilian, Peruvian, etc...workers were in Japan? And the wages were pretty much the same as SK is paying now but 30 to 40 years ago including free Livin bin company dorms.

So basically South Korea copied Japan again.

5 ( +9 / -4 )

Elon Musk claims he was diagnosed with Asperger's ( which is actually no longer used but just part of ASD).

Funny thing ASD (Autism) people think there are more people Beith ASD today than before.

Actually it is not more just better diagnosis being done, ASD used to often be diagnosed as schizophrenia ( which oddly enough dropped in diagnosis at the same time ASD started being diagnosed more).

But perhaps this time the ASD diagnosis was incorrect and the schizophrenia diagnosis would have been more appropriate.

0 ( +3 / -3 )

Crads. Why don't this cretin quit flapping his chops like a Pac-Man? Talking ignorant crap about things that he knows nothing about and is really no concern of his.

Doo-doo. Doo-doo. Doo-doo. *Doooooooooo-*oooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!

There's a line in Proverbs that says, 'even a fool who says nothing is considered to be wise'.

-3 ( +2 / -5 )

…less competition for resources, it becomes easier/cheaper/more affordable for people to have children.

Do you really think, that then a young couple that has to work and pay overtime for five or six etc seniors still has some time and money left for romance and a lot of own children? Everything will be taxed away and they’ll buy a rope for running into the next forest with those prospects and despite your ‘less competition for resources’. Many do that already now, as it’s not all brutal bullying.

-3 ( +3 / -6 )

Thank you, Captain Obvious. However, unless Japanese society goes through a thorough reform, I doubt anything will change in this matter.

-2 ( +3 / -5 )

Humans can barely predict the weather for the day after tomorrow, but even five years from now may be a different world.

2 ( +5 / -3 )

@Yrral

Maybe Musk should father some children

Elon has 7 children. Billionaires have lots of children because they can afford to.

https://pagesix.com/article/elon-musk-children/

Who are Elon Musk’s kids? His 7 children’s names, ages and mothers

-6 ( +4 / -10 )

Japan is, in this issue, leading the way in the ONLY solution to our impending extinction on this planet. Other than putting all of our Greed-driven psychopaths, who show NO SIGN of any serious efforts to curb the output of atmospheric poisons they sponsor, into cages, and even if they did reduce 'per capita' output, our ever growing 'capita' will outrun any individual diminution, population reduction is the ONLY hope for us and all of our nonHuman neighbors. As much as Elon might want to think of himself as a polymath, he certainly is NOT. He has his talents but, here, he clearly demonstrates his limitations. Even if Japan's birthrate were to decline at an even greater rate, our extinction without an equivalent worldwide decline will overtake us well before there would be significant decline in total number of 'Japanese' onplanet. I suspect that poor Elon has become addicted to 'attention' and, like trump, issues irrational statements just to elicit the 'look at ME!' attentions of the hoi polloi. If anyone else said this, would be on every media outlet in Western culture? As much as his organizational talents may be enviable, we are now seeing the true narcissist unveiling himself...more's the pity.

-7 ( +0 / -7 )

Japan has a grim future because its population shrinks? then Philippines, Bangladesh , India have a bright future because their population have been increasing? Noone believes that. I think Japan has too large population for the size of the country. now Japan is going through the transition period for the modest population. why labour shortage hasn't pushed up hourly wages is Japan accepted foreign workers. Japan doesn't have to accept menial workers from overseas.

-4 ( +3 / -7 )

Musk is having fun giving obvious comment. Maybe his next woman will be Japanese.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

We have been saying this same Exact thingS for years. I guess Musk saying it makes it special.

0 ( +3 / -3 )

Japan is a thousands-year-old country older than the vast majority of the decadent west, it has resisted famines, civil wars, invasions, the two criminal atomic bombs... Japan can get ahead of any calamity, having fewer inhabitants is not a problem, it will reach a point of balance and continue forward..

Thanks Musk for your pathetic drama..

Please don't ruin twitter..

-6 ( +1 / -7 )

As long as Japan is run by old misogynist Japanese men things will never change. Their forefathers got Japan into pillaging and rampaging all over Asia. Their discriminatory and predatory immigration policies commit Japan to a declining population that will only accelerate into oblivion

-3 ( +5 / -8 )

It is not only in Japan, most wealthier first-world countries are declining in birthrates. However, in poorer third-world countries, the birthrates and populations are exploding. That is a big problem because those poorer third-world countries cannot support their populations.

2 ( +5 / -3 )

Long before "ceasing to exist" the population problem would need to be dealt with with any measure available, including those that are currently being rejected. It is not like the country can function normally up to the point it gets completely empty.

5 ( +6 / -1 )

He could get over here and do his bit by having a few more kids here.....

0 ( +3 / -3 )

@TrevorPeace What on earth are you talking about? The genetic population of Japan is a mixture of folks who have immigrated over centuries, and continue to find a home in a welcoming Japan.

Not sure, where you have been in Canada, but in the major city of Toronto, people have self divided into ethnic enclaves and there is no national identify that links folks together except to try to sanctimoniously look down noses at things they think they do better at than Americans. There is no national purpose or ideal or culture that unites folks. People of different races in Canada are at each others' throats.

The live birth rate of babies of mixed marriages is actually higher in Japan than in Canada where people don't dare to imagine a spouse outside of their ethnic enclave.

2 ( +7 / -5 )

What ever Musk says and does is NO GOOD... from now on .... And as person he is the worst on this planet ... "New hash tag" for so called LIBERALS ... the fake army ..

Suddenly Musk become a global news item for liberals and pro communists . For them attacking and ridiculing Musk is the new chewing gum since Trump is not an obstacle. After Musk bought twitter ... liberals lost global monopoly in media control. They are totally upset. Now any way put black paint on him. You will see more news and articles about Musk as the way they did to Trump.....

0 ( +4 / -4 )

Quite enough people in Japan at present thanks-could do with fewer not more.

-9 ( +1 / -10 )

The population will likely flatten out to around 90 million in 40 years and by then the dinosaurs will have gone extinct and the country will be far more open to immigration and a more liberal government. Fingers crossed.

-2 ( +3 / -5 )

Musk has mentioned several times in the past his concern about a global population "collapse" as potentially the greatest risk to human civilization.

This is actually true. China's the world's most populous country has an extremely low fertility rate. India's is barely at replacement rate. On top of that pretty much the whole developed world is at below replacement rate. Even huge Brazil is well below replacement rate.

For more information you can see this video made by 2 Canadian demographers who travelled around the world and documented the tremendous drop in Childbirth all over the world.

Empty Planet: Preparing for the Global Population Decline - YouTube

1 ( +3 / -2 )

Ok population is going down yep and it will eventually stop and flatten out somewhere around 60 to 80 million people

Why? What factor do you see happening in the future that would boost the birthrate up to a sustainable number from where it is now? This is the real problem, not that populations may fall but that there's no reason to believe they'll stop falling. It takes a shockingly low number of generations for the overall population to see dramatic decline on the level of orders of magnitude. People are in for a very rude awakening on this issue.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

And let me guess, only Mother Musk can save Japan with the teat of his moobs?

-2 ( +2 / -4 )

Why? What factor do you see happening in the future that would boost the birthrate up to a sustainable number from where it is now? This is the real problem, not that populations may fall but that there's no reason to believe they'll stop falling. It takes a shockingly low number of generations for the overall population to see dramatic decline on the level of orders of magnitude. People are in for a very rude awakening on this issue.

Exactly! as the percentage of elderly increases the financial burden on taxpayers will increase and take away from social services that will benefit future parents making them even more reluctant to have children- On top of that, as the percentage of elderly people increases there will be less and less incentive for lawmakers to implement young family friendly fiscal policies- instead allocating more money to the retirees to curry votes basically making a vicious unbreakable cycle.

-2 ( +4 / -6 )

Will Japan have a shocking drop in population?

Probably, it (and the rest of the world) could stand to be less crowded. Infinite population growth is never possible, and Japan has exceeded its sustainable population for quite some time now.

Will Japan cease to exist?

Of course not, short of the entire nation taking a vow of celibacy overnight. It is strange to assume a linear decrease of population, and that birth rate would not increase as population decreases and things like real estate become more affordable.

-4 ( +1 / -5 )

NO PROBLEM at all, if Japan spends as much cash on child care and parents support as it does on concrete and steel then every couple will have a child or two.

-3 ( +3 / -6 )

I don't think women will have more kids if they get paid. For many, they'd rather behave like men : have a career or just enjoy papa and mama's place and wait until 40 to start perhaps thinking of a family.

Problem is nature did not make it possible that way for most.

This applies to every country getting with modern thinking.

This is why the right of abortion is such a debate by the way. You can't have it both in my opinion but that is a political choice.

Probably mankind will turn to baby farming to avoid general baby crunch one day (Check book story Brave new world).

I am not judging anyone. It is just a fact.

Musk is just enjoying seeing the consequences of mentioning the obvious, with the other side being we all want cultural Japan to stay strong.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

Youngsters spend more keeping pets than having a child. It’s a matter of the mind, not money. Libs don’t see that?

-2 ( +2 / -4 )

For those poor at maths, total fertility rate must reach 2.1 just for the population to level off. That is 2.1 children per woman on average. Can you only imagine how far it would go to reach that level again ? A simple survey around you gives you the answer.

I must admit Musk is doing his share of the work (7 current living kids, with first son died in first weeks). And future will be led by those standing, not the unborn.

112 comments after a single tweet, good lord !

-2 ( +2 / -4 )

It's going to happen - be real, what could reverse the demise of the Japanese? You can't just have a constant declining population and not go extinct.

0 ( +5 / -5 )

To be realistic, the population of Japan will never go to zero unless there is some cataclysmic event that destroys life in Japan or Asia or the world.

Maybe Mr musk tweeted about the demise of the population of Japan just to get people thinking about it?

-4 ( +3 / -7 )

Elon says a lot of things.

IMO he should stick to trying to make a better car.

-5 ( +3 / -8 )

> kurisupisuToday  10:54 am JST

To be realistic, the population of Japan will never go to zero unless there is some cataclysmic event that destroys life in Japan or Asia or the world.

Maybe Mr musk tweeted about the demise of the population of Japan just to get people thinking about it?

Well, there is a cataclysmic event happening right now - a constantly higher death rate than the birth rate with no hope of increasing the immigration rate enough. My question is, how can it not end in zero?!

1 ( +5 / -4 )

To those who think the Japanese becoming extinct is not a possibility, think again; it's possible if it continues the way it is. It's not hard to do the math.

Economists at Tohoku University established a countdown to national extinction, which estimates that Japan will have only one remaining child in 4205.

4 ( +7 / -3 )

Who cares what Elon Musk says? He's just a rich guy with a motor-mouth.

I doubt that any Japanese couples are going to say: "let's have three-four-five kids. Because Elon Musk said so!"

-4 ( +4 / -8 )

rapid decline in population has huge effects on economy and employment...

no company will want to invest in Japan in the future if there is a declining demand for their product/service ... and guess what will happen to employment in Japan....

and what tech advancement to boost productivity? well, your population is declining so you have less brains to come up with these new tech ideas...

this is a huge concern and i have yet to see the dinosaurs in charge of this country do anything about it!

2 ( +5 / -3 )

Humanity will cease to exist if the birthrate does NOT continue to fall. There are too many on this planet. Japan will have to figure their problems out. Trying to increase the population will not be to anyone's advantage.

-4 ( +1 / -5 )

"before it slips to 5th or 6th in world economies, and probably about the same amount of time before the gap between the rich and those living in poverty is so large that Japan will basically be classed as third-world."

Well, Canada is ranked 10th in the world; S Korea is 12th on the table.

Therefore they are already classed as third-worlders, as per assessment of Japan's "impending" demise.

Thanks for clarifying the obvious state of backwardness of your own country.

Canada's critical, out of the box thinking.

I like.

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

Antiquesaving: calling Musk a fool is quite a statement. Considering what he has accomplished, I can't imagine the reasoning behind that statement. Also - I doubt that he would weaponize Twitter - he is more of a libertarian than authoritarian.

1 ( +5 / -4 )

@virusrex

Long before "ceasing to exist" the population problem would need to be dealt with with any measure available, including those that are currently being rejected. It is not like the country can function normally up to the point it gets completely empty.

Agree.

Forget Bitcoins, invest in stones and wooden sticks, they may come in handy when things go like, really really really south. (And no, reflecting on what I just wrote, I think that I'm actually only half joking on this one...)

2 ( +5 / -3 )

Actually, some more serious food for thoughts.

From which point or what does it need to de-rank a country from the status of "country" to "non-country" or "(semi-)failed country" or what does it need to de-rank a country from its status.

If we consider:

.an ever-decreasing population

.an inverted age-pyramid which will make health-care and pension-systems unsustainable

.a generation of 40% workers caught in the gig-economy with no (own) housing and savings heading for "theoretical" retirement but actually forced to literally work until they drop dead as they can not even allow themselves to be sick

.(links into the 3rd point): a life expectancy which will decrease

.an increase in the distribution of wealth and income across the population and the related in poverty

.increasingly expatriated industries as the national workforce shrinks

.a current morally bankrupt, corrupt and inept political class

.an increasingly depopulated country which could potentially make it more and more difficult to protect the national territory

.a potential for International Money Fund bail outs down the lane

etc, etc, etc

The term "failed state" generally calls up images of autocratic regimes, civil war, famines, overall corruption, etc. There may be other aspects to consider as well and a "country" may cease to exist as such waaaaay before its last citizen is dead and buried.

0 ( +3 / -3 )

It would not bother me if Mr. Musk ceased to exist. He is more than a little full of himself.

-2 ( +2 / -4 )

apid decline in population has huge effects on economy and employment...

no company will want to invest in Japan in the future if there is a declining demand for their product/service ... and guess what will happen to employment in Japan...

Ok, so pretty much every developed nation in the world has a total fertility rate (TFR) below replacement and some are lower than Japan's. By your standard no firm will invest in Singapore, South Korea or China for example. Or the US where the TFR isn't a whole lot higher than China's and the native born TFR lower still.

-2 ( +2 / -4 )

Youngsters spend more keeping pets than having a child. It’s a matter of the mind, not money. Libs don’t see that

Only someone who has never raised a kid could write tripe like that. Our one little boy is vastly more costly and time consuming to raise than our three dogs.

1 ( +4 / -3 )

I read everyone’s comments and appreciate everyone’s point of view. Thank you.

It’s exactly what someone might say from the outside looking into Japan. Yes I agree, it is obvious. But I’m thankful for him to say something. To point it out, to cast a spotlight on it even if it’s for a moment. Many people outside the land of the rising sun, still just don’t know much about Japan.

I have raised four children in Japan and felt the challenge of it from day 1 because of cultural barriers in place.

Maybe this is the moment to collectively bring awareness on this topic and do something, instead of sitting in the stands commenting. We collectively rise up to help Japan overcome this great national dilemma.

And no I’m not some crazy person. I just believe it takes good people with a desire to have change, will it forward.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

To those that think having more Japanese is the answer are obviously not living in Japan.

-5 ( +2 / -7 )

Of course Japan will survive with a population as low as 70-80 mil. The problem comes from the resulting loss of economic and military streangth. Japan will slowly become irrelevant and vulnerable to stronger surrounding countries. And with in an aggressively changing world, yes possibly cease to exist.

1 ( +4 / -3 )

Everything goes back to nature. Earth abides.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

The world according to Musk, Is this really news? What about some good news, like Spring Time ? People will be people.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Obviously this is an issue but I really laughed at this:

"has hoped to ease the labor shortage by attempting to increase foreign workers under a relaxed visa system."

Either that statement is a joke, or the author has no clue on the subject. Even if someone wants to comment saying it's relaxed relative to the past, there hasn't been any significant change in the past decade.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

Socially, culturally and economically finished. Why have successive Japanese governments struggled to deal with this? Easy, they do not want to change the status quo. Those in charge have a nice life, why include women, foreigners, the working poor?

Adapt or perish, Japan.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

Stating the obvious wouldn't one think ?

I like the guy but I don't need his opinion on everything going on.

Focus on getting your Rocket Ship into space and selling e cars at a reasonable price Elon.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

He has rockets, but he's not a rocket scientist

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

I have two half kids and two 1/4 Grandchildren, does that count? :))

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

I believe the poorest prefecture, Okinawa, will save Japan. Okinawans have the highest birthrate in Japan. Quite a few of my coworkers have anywhere from 5 to 7 children.

https://www.mhlw.go.jp/english/database/db-hw/FY2010/dl/live_births04.pdf

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

The solution must be giving women more chances to choose between home and work!

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

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