Nearly 200,000 could die if M9 level quake hits northern Japan


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Nothing can be done to mitigate the wrath of a magnitude 9 earthquake (whether measured by the Richter scale or the silly Japanese scale).

-8 ( +8 / -16 )

The Tohoku coast today is outlined in white concrete, a towering border guarding against the next tidal wave, rising to heights in some places above and in other places far below the tsunami a decade ago.

But one of the most striking exhibits on display at the surprisingly sleek yet awfully solemn Iwate Tsunami Memorial Museum is a multi-meter deep sample of soil providing visible evidence of tsunami deposits over time — 10, 50, 100, thousands of years ago — allowing the visitor to deduce that it’s only a matter of time before the next tsunami arrives and washes in a new layer of gravel, mud, shells, and microfossils originating from the seafloor, beaches, and coastal soils.

11 ( +11 / -0 )

The estimates did not refer to nuclear power plants in Aomori, Miyagi, Fukushima, and Ibaraki prefectures. The government has said it will not predict possible damage linked to a specific facility.

So that study just won't count how many displaced people and survivor that can lost their livelihood and home, even after tsunami is gone like people in Fukushima.

7 ( +7 / -0 )

Google Earthquake Near Tokyo

-5 ( +0 / -5 )

What they are really saying (indrectly as is usual here) is that it is possible to heavily reduce casualties by pouring even more concrete!

11 ( +13 / -2 )

The Central Disaster Management Council predicts that most of the fatalities will be caused by the resulting tsunami, and a maximum of 220,000 buildings could be destroyed if such a quake occurs along the Japan Trench. The potential economic fallout for the region and country as a whole could be roughly 31.3 trillion yen ($275.4 billion).

The timing of this announcement creates great economic synergy with the recent drama Japan Sinks on TBS!

5 ( +5 / -0 )

Sounds like the scenario for the next Japanese disaster movie (with a guest appearance of Godzilla?)

-2 ( +3 / -5 )

I was living in Ibaraki during the 2011 quake. I decided it was time to make plans to leave Japan. I wouldn’t want to be in Kanto when the big one hits near Tokyo. It’s not if, it’s when.

No power, cold weather, no water, little food. No thanks.

2 ( +6 / -4 )

200K death toll is nothing compared to Nankai Trough Megaquake, which will basically liquify grounds of Tokyo and its surrounding areas and cause a damage that Japan may never recover from.

A Disaster to Dwarf 3/11? The Predicted Nankai Quake

Experts believe there is a 70% to 80% probability of a severe Nankai Trough earthquake within 30 years. More than 70 years have passed since the previous such quake in this region, which sees a major shake every 100 to 150 years.

-15 ( +2 / -17 )

""given that the estimated deaths in the northeastern and northern areas could be reduced by 80 percent if timely evacuations are made.""

Could be reduced by 80%,!!!!!!!!!!?? the answer is to do the OBVIOUS and LIVE AWAY from the ocean, we can't fight mother nature, we never know where, or when it will strike, so why keep on challenging it ???

4 ( +4 / -0 )


so why keep on challenging it ???

Japan is a densely populated county with few flat land. Japanese have no place to go other than to mountain ranges.

Or immigrate away from Japan, which is the ending of "Japan Sinks" movie and TV series.

-18 ( +2 / -20 )

So 220,000 buildings are destroyed but only 200,000 people die? I guess they had to come up with a number, but I wonder what factors were considered...

1 ( +2 / -1 )

I hope whoever made this report faxed it to all the relevant town offices and prefectural administrative offices. Otherwise, there will be no proof that anybody knew anything and no one to point the finger at.

-3 ( +2 / -5 )

whether measured by the Richter scale or the silly Japanese scale

The Japanese scale estimates shaking at ground level. Which is what matters. Magnitude only measure the scale of the "explosion", whose energy dissapates when far underground. A "low" magnitude earthquake near the surface can easily cause massive localized damage, destroying even brand new houses. The best-known example is the Kyushu earthquake.

I think various measures can be taken to mitigate earthquake risk, but tsunamis are whole matter altogether. You cannot expect a mostly old population to successfully evacuate in the middle of the night with snow on the ground.

6 ( +6 / -0 )

Bookmark this article and show it to the politicians claiming "souteigai" when it actually happens

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

Scary stuff and yet you see new development in Odaiba for example.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

Scary report, time to pass on some bucks to the zenecon friends.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

When it happens, move to higher ground. Don't wait for the announcement. GO.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

So 220,000 buildings are destroyed but only 200,000 people die? I guess they had to come up with a number, but I wonder what factors were considered...

In the Tohoku quake the numbers were approx 18,000 dead and more than 123,000 houses totally destroyed (I don't know how many non-houses were also destroyed). Not all houses will be occupied at the time, and tsunami evacuation warnings will be issued, giving people time to get away. Of course these numbers will vary greatly depending on the time of day.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

And that estimated cost of damage of 275.4 billion seems way, way, way, way too low.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

Its says "strong temblor"

Dont they mean "strong tremor"

And exactly what is their contingency safety planning for the people in response to this disaster scenario model prediction by the disaster management experts.

How will they transport the people to the supposedly safe tower's and buildings that are not built yet and provide medical care and nutrition and emotional support ?

I sincerely hope they don't dither around like headless chickens if or when then next disaster happens.

Not to mention fire safety or chemical hazards that could pose a risk .

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

We, here in western Oregon, have sympathy with the people who live in and near these subduction zones. Every 300-500 years a ~9-9+ quake releases the strain in the Pacific and North American plates (Cascadia Subduction Zone) and the last such quake was in 1700CE wiping out many of the Native Peoples, whole tribes, living along the coast. America is establishing 'early warning' systems, raised shelters, and one cannot drive far without seeing a "Tsunami Zone" sign and directions to evacuate. The estimates here, too, are a perhaps 30 meter tsunami. But we, like our Nihonjin brethren, live with it. It's HOME, what to do?

But, in a way, it reminds me of a quotation regarding helplessness in the face of this Universe, “I want to die peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather, not screaming in terror like his passengers.” — Jack Handey

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Welp, Japan should move its capital and industry to Fukuoka or Hokkaido or somewhere alond the West Coast for lower Earthquake risk.

-4 ( +0 / -4 )

Scary stuff and yet you see new development in Odaiba for example.

Yep, they are not planning for the future, carelessly constructing towers, high rise apartments and waterfront properties on reclaimed land. As Samit Basu correctly stated, a Nankai trough megathrust earthquake will cause liquefaction of all reclaimed land in the Tokyo Bay area and bring it all crumbling to the ground.

Forget about earthquekes and tsunamis, what about sea level rise due to climate change? It is utterly irresponsible to build so many residential properties and high rise buildings so close to the coast, given they may be flooded by 2m of sea level rise in 50 years.

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

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