Panel proposes mass evacuation of coastal areas if mega quake hits

Do we need a government panel to tell us that it's a good idea to run away from a giant tsunami?

Good morning everyone. Whats this? 70-80% chance within the next 20-30 years?

Thats a pretty harsh way to live with that sword dangling over your head. Maybe I won’t buy any property, save as much as possible, live in a quake proof building, and know where to run in a tsunami?

thepersoniamnow; if you think that's harsh, they have been say within 30 years for at least 15 years.

How in the world is the government going to safely see the evacuation of what, roughly 40 million people, which includes Tokyo?

all residents of Japan's central and western coastal areas should evacuate

The elderly.

Infants in day care.

Children is schools.

Patients in hospitals.

Prisoners (Come this way please, Ghon san)

The disabled.

All trying to get on a bus or train out of town at the same time.

local governments are expected to prepare their evacuation plans.

Oh, now I understand. There will be a PLAN

Gary

How in the world is the government going to safely see the evacuation of what, roughly 40 million people, which includes Tokyo?

They're not. It took a couple days just to evacuate KIX after a moderately strong typhoon. 40 mil in the hour or so you'd have before a massive wave arrives--the stuff of a bad Hollywood film. My family lives high on the hills in Kobe and we feel pretty safe, but I sure think about them every time I'm at sea level far from the mtns.

@ thepersoniamnow - we all have swords dangling over us everyday, not counting those from natural disasters... inattentive drivers, illnesses, violence...

Mega Quake = roads blocked - no buses or cars can get out, trains out of service...How do they plan to get 30 million healthy residents out of Tokyo, let alone all the others Gary mentioned. Add to all this 'Extreme weather conditions' - hot, dry and windy. Unless the tsunami stops all the fires, all of Tokyo would burn down. I'd say your only chance to get out quickly is on a off road bike. If you're not in a hurry or would like to film the destruction along the way, a mountain bike would suffice.

If the Nankai trough collapses I heard that the worst damage will be in central Wakayama or Mie, not Tokyo. So shouldnt they come up with a plan for EVERY area?

Thats a pretty harsh way to live with that sword dangling over your head. Maybe I won’t buy any property, save as much as possible, live in a quake proof building, and know where to run in a tsunami?

Nah just move to Canada with us

This is a contradiction. Telling people to run away, with no transport? And the plan for Tokyo includes closing all major roads for emergency viechles only. The M10 will come and has come before. That is why I don’t live in Tokyo and live far away from the sea. However I am near a few old nuclear power plants...damn.

I was here for the Kobe earthquake in 1995 and I can say with 100% certainty that governments are at a complete loss and it is up to the individual to sort things out for themselves.

How do people evacuate when communications are down and roads are blocked?

Evacuating people after a quake, after the quake has struck is not much use.......

It will not be possible for everyone to evacuate in time and thousands will die. The government could ban all new building within 1-2 km of the coast and let the danger area gradually depopulate over time.

Yep, much better to do the checks ,strengthen sea wall, bridge underpinnings etc.

Panels full of retired beareaucrats getting paid to yap does little to help...

The article clearly says this is for the Western and Central regions, why is everyone talking about evacuating Tokyo?

Living in a large megalopolis within the "ring of fire' (on the other side of the Pacific), I can attest that Japan has the best state-of-art emergency preparedness system , drills, education and public awareness in place of any country I know that is at risk.

Magnus, you are correct. The latest update on this was explained on TV last night, with helpful maps. The area affected by a Nankai Trough mega-earthquake would be the coast of Honshu, from about Shizuoka to Wakayama/Osaka, the south coast of Shikoku and the east coast of Kyushu. Here is a steel structure erected recently in Shizuoka.

http://www.asahi.com/special/bousai/TKY201209120462.html

In the past such a mega-quake has happened first in about half of the total area, followed about a week later by the other half. This is the main warning that the government is looking at issuing.

PS Some more concrete tower examples here:

https://search.yahoo.co.jp/image/search;_ylt=A2RCAw92sxBc2BgA5ziU3uV7?p=%E5%8D%97%E6%B5%B7%E3%83%88%E3%83%A9%E3%83%95%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%81%BF%E9%9B%A3%E3%82%BF%E3%83%AF%E3%83%BC%E3%82%B3%E3%83%B3%E3%82%AF%E3%83%AA%E3%83%BC%E3%83%88%E9%AB%98%E5%8F%B0&aq=-1&oq=&ei=UTF-8

If you are near the sea shore, make sure to locate the one nearest to you!

Evacuation could mean "Run for the hills!" - an immediate measure to preserve your life with which the government will likely be of minimal help - and the longer-term, "Gee, my house and all of my belongings have disappeared, as have those of all my neighbors" type support. A friend of mine works for Kumamoto Prefecture and has discussed how the government here is preparing to take in a large number of evacuees from Oita and Miyazaki in the event of a Nankai Trough tsunami.

Eastern Kyushu, strung along the low-laying coast as it is, could be inundated, with all medical facilities and a large percentage of housing destroyed. A bit of forward thinking is more than prudent.

With the Global Warming fanatics now predicting that sea levels will rise by 70 metres (now up from their previous prediction of 50 metres) and by the urgency with which these dire prognostications are being made one could well believe that inundation is imminent. Hopefully not before Christmas. If and when it happens there will be more to worry about than a 30cm tsunami.

the emergency planning has to keep being updated even if the requirements seem ridiculous. After seeing enough video of the tsunami I really appreciate those safety zones. If you're a prepper-type learn to fly a helicopter but other than that everyone is going to be in the same boat

The first major quake that hit mainland Japan in modern times was over 90 years ago. Why has it taken until now to start talking about evacuation plans?

Overseas cities prone to tsunami sometimes have markers within the city indicating potential wave run up heights. If you have a clear line of sight to the ocean you can judge for yourself but having markers around coastal cities would be very useful. I've only ever seen such markers in Japan near swimming beaches or small towns.

Seadog

I suggest you ignore the "fanatics" on both side and listen to what the scientists have to say.

Hi Mlodinow

I've only ever seen such markers in Japan near swimming beaches or small towns.

In the Sanriku coast from Miyagi up to Aomori there are many towns and villages that have stone monuments and rows of sakura trees at a certain elevation.

The monuments recall past tsunami as far back as 800 years ago or so and read, "Don't build lower than this point".

As places like Onagawa are being rebuilt, the warning are being heeded.

That is until memory fades.

seriously? you needed paid panel to make this "recommendation" ?

what would have anyone done without it, just prepare swimming jackets?

I would like a police inquiry to why such panel was needed in the first place and who exactly allocated the budget for it and how that was distributed... or is it too hard for police and all they are capable of catching upskirt photo taking cops and unconforming foreigners?

@garymalmgren , every coastal area in Japan has these markings, just look more carefully, its mandated by law.