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Population projected to drop everywhere in Japan but Tokyo by 2045


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I think these estimates well underestimate the actual situation in 2045.

Nevertheless, even these estimates reconfirm a stark and staggering reality for the countryside / regional Japan!

Huge implications for virtually all aspects of society and everyday life.

8 ( +10 / -2 )

Perhaps something could be done to improve Japan's work-life balance - or will those remaining alive just be expected to shoulder the burden of their fallen comrades for the betterment of the economy and soldier on?

3 ( +6 / -3 )

Excellent news! I look forward to more space here,more available car park,hospital beds and easy to get seat on Sinkansen and hotel reservaion in Golden Week. I never understand those who want to keep growing population. A stable 60million in Japan would be heaven on earth for me and my family and friends.

-4 ( +6 / -10 )

I will probably contribute to the drop.

6 ( +8 / -2 )

@Ganbare Japan

Be careful what you wish for. "Everything good will be exactly the same, except less crowded" isn't how depopulation works. There are real economic consequences at stake here.

9 ( +12 / -3 )

I think these estimates well underestimate the actual situation in 2045.

As the story says, compared to the last time they calculated it, the estimate for 2040 has actually gone up by 3.6 million. You can see the current data here

and the archived version of the page with the previous estimate here

The graph won't show but the numbers in the table below do. If you compare them, it looks like only 600,000 of the extra 3.6 million are old people. The new estimate predicts 1.2 million more children, and 1.8 million more in the 15-65 group they call the "productive population".

So this report is a case of it doesn't look quite as grim as we thought, but It still looks grim.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

I as well will likely have met my Maker by then.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

Not something Japan will have to worry about.

Given the geo-political climate who is confident we make it to 2050 as a species at this point?

I'm not.

-1 ( +3 / -4 )

Ganbare Japan - train and hotels are not charities - their aim is to make a profit. A smaller population will mean that train services etc., will be reduced accordingly, and hosptials will be fuller because of the larger proportion of old people.

9 ( +10 / -1 )

Good news. Way, way too many people in such a small country.

-4 ( +3 / -7 )

Excellent news! I look forward to more space here,more available car park,hospital beds and easy to get seat on Sinkansen and hotel reservaion in Golden Week. I never understand those who want to keep growing population. A stable 60million in Japan would be heaven on earth for me and my family and friends.

Really? And who is going to drive those trains, staff those hotels and care for you in hospital? Robots?

4 ( +6 / -2 )

In my nook of Kumamoto, the countryside is depopulating to the city. I imagine the same is occurring in other regional cities. So the cities will see a stable or perhaps even a slightly rising population while the countryside will be abandoned to the deer and boar.

It's not just the population; it's the ramifications caused by residential demographics. For example, Japan had better reconcile itself to being 80% dependent on imported food.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

I am no expert in economics but I do think when one day people aged 65 or older will exceed 30 percent in all 47 prefectures and In 2045, Akita is projected to be home to the highest percentage of people aged 65 or older at 50.1 percent, and the smallest percentage of children up to age 14 at 7.4 percent, you are having some big problems.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

It has been possible for a number of years to rent a house in rural Kyushu for free. The owners in Tokyo who inherited it are desperate for people to live in granny's house to keep it up. Once it has been empty for a few years it quickly degenerates. There are lots of abandoned buildings whose owners cannot be traced, they probably don't even know they own them. There are also lots of abandoned rice fields. When Japan finally gets around to allowing 21st century agriculture, I suspect some breve souls will pounce on the opportunity to move back to the countryside.

However the biggest problem small towns are facing is how the health care system is set up. With an aging population, the rural municipal government has to charge high insurance on young healthy people which just drives more young people away. If health insurance costs were spread out evenly across prefectures and prefecture responsibility it would help, but ultimately if the program became national with the Government of Japan taking over it would be best.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Japanese society needs to outlaw Abortion of babies. Japan needs many more babies to sustain the economic health and stability of the nation.

By outlawing Abortion of babies Japanese families would greatly benefit by increasing the population of Japanese society.

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

Too many young people going to find jobs in cities and so many old people living in country side is much problematic matter to this item of population projected to drop.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

In 1900, the most populous prefecture was....


Yep, more people than Tokyo. That's how "inhospitable" the rest of the country is. That was also without fossil fuels and chemical fertilizers. And with probably way more snow than they get now, which is still a huge amount in the Tsunan/Tokamachi area.

Getting back to this report, to misquote the great Yogi Berra, the future doesn't look quite as bad as it used to be. It looks like there will be more kids that earlier estimates suggested. There will also be more working age people to look after the oldies, keep the pension system plates spinning, and all the rest. Barring introduction of the Carousel from Logan's Run, there will inevitably be lots of old people, and I fail to see how not having young people will make the whole situation any better.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

It is sometimes said that Japan takes certain social cues from the US, but with a 10-20 year lag. Non-smoking sections, sexual harassment policies in companies for example.

Not that it would necessarily help the overall population decline, but one social movement taking hold in the US would be nice to see in Japan: The move by younger people AWAY from the cities to enjoy simpler lives in rural areas, and getting involved with farming.

When one drives through rural Japan, especially during rice planting or harvesting, it's pretty much just a bunch of old folks. It's not often talked about, but within a decade, there are likely to be A LOT more unused farms in Japan. It would be nice if lots of young Japanese folks get tired of living in shoeboxes in Tokyo and go back out to the farms.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

I think there will be factors that will counteract rural depopulation to some extent. The world's population is still growing and harvests are going to be increasingly disrupted by climate change, so food prices are going to increase, making it more essential and also profitable to cultivate the farmland that is being lost because of retiring farmers. A wise government would be doing a lot more to encourage a new generation of farmers and decentralisation to improve essential services in rural areas, making it more attractive to live there.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

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