Tokyo mega-quake would kill over 9,600, simulation shows

The quake didn't kill most of the victims of the Great Kanto quake of 1923, fire did. This will happen again especially if it hits during lunch or dinner times. Since rivers have been covered over, those streets with KAWA in their name may be problematic. I think they are being a bit conservative in their numbers.

Well apparently, according to the Sky Tree article, at least the Sky Tree will be still standing....

Look we know that. It will also depend on what time of day it strikes. If you live in Tokyo, you probably have it in the back of your head that you have a chance of being in a 7.3 or even an 8.3.

The real question I have is how much preparation Ishihara is doing for this. He has lots of time for other things - Senkaku, Olympics etc. I'd like to see him more involved in preparing the city.

Bldgs may not break but they'll sway & shake & vibrate! Reduce your unfastened items. Prefer soft furnishing. Electric over naked flames for hot water & oil...

I reckon there's a couple of zeroes missing off that estimate. Imagine peak hour travel, subway, train and underground passageways collapsing, and all those so-called earthquake-proof buildings toppling over: many people will be buried alive or crushed, and long-timers here know that rescue services here are totally inadequate and ineffective, and with the roads either blocked or in pieces, help will not be arriving soon...

Is it just me or does the death count seem WILDLY optomistic.

If 140,000 died in 1923 I think your going to see similar now with the increase in population & even with the supposed earthquake proof buildings, the liquifaction along the bay alone cud blow this figure skyhigh.

Like any prediction here you need to figure they are off by at least an order of magnitude.

I hope I am not alive to find out what really will happen, but thankfully I have long since moved out to the sticks where the odds are better

The scariest question really is how Tokyo will cope with 150,00 injured people when people in trouble can't get to a hospital now.

That's why I think Ishihara should call for compulsory first aid training in schools. That will save more lives than singing kimigayo loudly.

Souteigai should never be uttered as an excuse in Japan ever again.

9,600 actually sounds pretty low considering a population of millions.

@paulisusa ... i thought the exact same thing does that make us bad people? :/

And throughout all these predictions Ishihara wants to buy an island? Hey maybe he figures that it would be someplace he could move to when the quake eventually happens?!?!

I've got to agree with other posters here; 9,600 per city section would be more like it with unimaginable damage in and around all the "reclaimed" in-fill land. This doesn't begin to address the possibility of what an accompanying tsunami would do.

This paragraph is particularly ridiculous.

A huge tsunami would strike isolated Pacific Ocean islands several hundred kilometers outside Tokyo, which are considered part of the municipality, but was not likely to cause damage or fatalities in the metropolis itself.

Why do they believe that there is no potential for tsunami damage all along Tokyo Bay?

While it's true that most of the people who died in the Great Kanto Quake were killed by fire, there was comparatively little development along the water front and not a single building over 5- or 10-stories then. I'd rather be on the top floor of the Mori Building than in a 5-storey ferro-concrete apartment building from the 1960s or 1970s.

Yasukuni I have no idea why you were voted down - compulsory emergency medical training in schools is the best idea I think I have ever heard to address this problem. It would be good to teach people how to make emergency medical supplies out of everyday things too - curtains into bandages, alcohol for sterilisation etc. There are sure to not be enough supplies when it happens. There was a story back home a few years ago where a guy on a train saved a stab wound victims life with a credit card! He had just a few days before been on an EMT training course and pressing the credit card over the chest stab wound created some kind of a vacuum that prevented the lung collapsing. It was amazing!

Also agree with what everyone is saying about Ishihara

dont take this the wrong way, but I think they left off a few zeros. If JUST ONE sky scrapper fell it would kill 10k. I hope they are right. I have heard previous scientific estimates before that put the number in the millions.

And yeah... as modern as Tokyo is, there are still PLENTY of wooden houses and structures scattered all over the city that could catch fire.

Robert DykesApr. 19, 2012 - 08:26AM JST dont take this the wrong way, but I think they left off a few zeros. If JUST ONE sky scrapper fell it would kill 10k. I hope they are right. I have heard previous scientific estimates before that put the number in the millions.

I agree. Not to seem unnecessarily pessimisitic, but the thing about a massively built-up area like central Tokyo is that if ONE skyscraper fell, unless it had the good fortune to implode, would cause damage to every building around it, possibly knocking down other buildings (think Dominos).

Tokyo is full of huge buildings that were built decades ago, like the 240m Sunshine 60 built in 1978, that may have been retrofitted with earthquake protection, but retrofits are nowhere near as effective as having the precautions built in from the start.

I agree - I think they left a zero out :( I also agree that there will probably more damage from fire than the quake itself.

For those of you in Tokyo - are you considering moving? Or staying put?

Why do they believe that there is no potential for tsunami damage all along Tokyo Bay?

If you look closely at the map, the passage to Tokyo bay is quite narrow between two peninsulas. Not only that, the depth of the bay is quite shallow. Hence, you have estimates ranging around two meter waves.

Thanks Nicky. Seriously, of all the places in the world I know, Tokyo is the place where the more people who know first aid the better. Don't want to sound gory, but a lot of people think they will either be safe or die, but there's a lot in between that.

Back in my high school days, we could elect to do what was know as St John's First Aid or something (not sure if that's because it was a commonwealth country - no idea). But, I imagine lines of people lining up with cuts and bleeding and who knows what.

Actually, I'd like to do a refresher course myself and get my wife to do one - anyone know where to learn first aid in Tokyo?

Makes me remember a time someone was hit by a car near me in Tokyo. Strange that it was left to a gaijin to stop bleeding, and wait with the person until the ambulance came.

Anyway, I just think there will be lots of injured people waiting around for treatment that won't come for a long time. I love this country and my city Tokyo. We should become earthquake survival experts!

With so many old people, we need to start with the young.

Come on Mr Ishihara. You're a man with courage and vision and big ideas. Let's make every high school graduate a First Aid expert. hmm Maybe I'll join my school's PTA and push for this.

btw, google and read up in English on the history of earthquakes in Tokyo and the surrounding areas and you'll know more than 90% of the people who were born here. It's crazy how little people know about their own city and country even in spite of all the really informative late night quiz shows that they watch...

Does this include all those who willdo dumb things and put themselves in harm's way?

Every company should be made to have emergency goods for workers including first aid equipment and everyone over the age of 10 should be taught basic first aid.

Ishihara should not even be the governer he should not even be in charge of one of tokyo metropolitans dump trucks. Tokyo needs a governer with a brain to prepare the place for a large shaker.

If you don't want to die of collapse, fire and tsunami caused by mega earthquakes in Kanto, it is better to leave Japan ASAP! Otherwise you might be one of them?

I watched this on TV last night. It finished off with saying we should all be prepared... but didn't say anything about how to be prepared? I think we all need to look into this, water, food supplies, fire extinguishers, evacuation plan, first aid, list is endless.

the estimate seems somewhat optimistic... doesn't even include people who will be killed by the mobs and rooting...

Time for Osaka, to be named as the next capital of Japan. With a reconstruction price tag to be astronomically far enough on what the taxpayers afford, the only thing that our future generations want to see is no other than concrete rubble being laid out in mountains for centuries.

Please agree if Osaka receives national capital status for the country's sake

I always thought the Japanese put too many eggs in one basket. A good (most) portion of their infrastructure, economy and banking is in Tokyo. A helluva lot more tax money goes to Tokyo. If they know its a coming they should start to shift some money, guvt, and power to the west to keep the nation afloat. But...they have been talking about that for 50 years. Yep those numbers are way too low. Perhaps even off Kanto as the whole thing shifted last year...

****@wanda

Why do they believe that there is no potential for tsunami damage all along Tokyo Bay?

nigelboy hits it on te head, the entrance to Tokyo bay at the Pacific side is relatively small. 2.6m predicted for Shinagawa, 2m or less elsewhere. Not so ridiculous.

@yasukuni

The scariest question really is how Tokyo will cope with 150,00 injured people when people in trouble can't get to a hospital now.

Did you know, there are just 212 ambulances in Tokyo? There will be a lot of triage going on, and I also think you'll find that the scale of the disaster will see doctors and nurses working for the first 48 hours (at least) non-stop.

Actually, I'd like to do a refresher course myself and get my wife to do one - anyone know where to learn first aid in Tokyo?

btw, google and read up in English on the availability of first aid courses in Japan and you will know more more than 90% of the people who were born here! ;) http://www.jrc.or.jp/english/activity/safety.html

Depressing to consider. I have little faith that this city will respond well. Young people here are not ready to help out like young people in countries where kids are trained in first aid, survival skills etc...

Just imagine if it hits during winter, fashionistas will be ill prepared to survive the cold. Legions of girls in their heels unprepared for walking in rubble. Hospitals incapable of proper emergency response now will be hopelessly overcome. And the food and supply panic that hit post 3/11 will be magnified exponentially.

As much as Japan has become my home, this does make me consider that somewhere else may be more safe. But my home city of Seattle is also an epic quake risk area and the structures there are even less ready to survive a heavy shake. But the people of Seattle are far better prepared in terms of civilian training and readiness to endure weather. And hospitals there are used to trauma and used to be buried in customers. So they will certainly do better. As will the very excellent first responders. Something Japan is very weak on.

Tokyo mega-quake would kill over 9,600, simulation shows...

Same level of mega-quake would kill over 96,000 in other countries of the world! What are these stats trying to prove? Your chance of dying in any major natural disaster is high...regardless if you are in Tokyo or Timbuktu!

Seems like a very kind estimate. Between that lack of knowing what to do, the government taking their sweet old time, the fires...

10,000 deaths is very few. And without so many wooden buildings, there can't be the huge firestorms that killed 140,000 last time.

The message is be prepared, but don't be scared.

I think the mentality in Japan is that the central or municipal government should be the one preparing. That's probably why they are always sending out these figures as a warning to sort of make excuses for themselves and say we are not prepared.

I think what we need to do is think of ways ourselves to survive the first 3 or 4 days until help comes. That means water and food and walking shoes at the office and such which I believe most of you have prepared after 311 and the recent spring storm.

As yasukuni suggested, first aid courses would be very good for lighter cases. As for serious cases the only thing I can think of is checking which kind of facilities, experts are in the vicinity, when at home or at the office.

There are still large areas of metro Tokyo covered in closely clustered wood structures with heavy tile roofs. These are the same type structures that helped spread the firestorms in Kobe. With roads blocked and covered in debri there will be more loss of life secondary to the quake itself. How much of the subway system is above sea level? Even a small tsunami could be a large calamity here during rush hour. I too think the numbers quoted are way conservative.

If the Japanese government is giving these estimations, we should pretty much double or triple every number they give us, as well as the severity of the issue.

Good suggestions for the capital being moved. Why not have a city like Canberra in Australia?

Build a new capital for all those public servants out in a new place outside of Tokyo. More room in Tokyo, safer in an earthquake and some development for the countryside. With all the money spent on public works over the last few decades they could have already had a new capital somewhere.

Even if the tsunami isnt that tall, you need to remember tsunami dont act like normal waves, the power BEHIND that keeps pushing can easily send a hell of a lot of water inland & lots of the inner Tokyo Bay is not much above sea level!

There will be a lot of triage going on

gyoza,

Yeah but sadly triage in Japan means "our beds are full or we dont have THAT kind of doctor, go to another hospital"

Speaking from direct Tohoku experience, Tokyoites are going to have to deal with buckled elevated roads and bridges all over the place, and people will inevitably be temporarily be unable to cross rivers and stretches of roads if they live in areas such as Chiba and Saitama to name a couple. It always pays to have alternative routes mapped out to get home and a pre--arranged meeting points to keep in touch with people when the communications networks crash. I'd be skeptical about the projected casualties in the article as well, but whatever the case, common sense, a cool head and preparedness will significantly increase your chances of surviving and coping with the disaster. Keeping a supply of food and water, as well as those thick-type masks (mine were filthy on the outer layer after a few hours use last year directly after the quake from burning buildings and what-not).

Maybe the question posed to every candidate for local elections should be, "What will you do to prepare for an earthquake?"

If everyone had a few days supplies, and some extras for your neighbors, schools and workplaces had supplies, everyone knew first aid, etc it would go a long way.

I foolishly assumed when I came here that Japan would have really cool systems in place in times of disasters. I had visions of fleets of helicopters ready to fly in supplies from storage centers etc. Instead, I was watching people wring their hands and cry on TV about how people in shelters up north didn't have food or diapers, while friends of mine were convoying food up there getting to places way before the govt did.

Here's a interesting exercise for those with some time. Watch the documentary narrated by Tom Hanks about the evacuation by boats on 9.11, and ask yourself if a similar thing could happen in Japan.

We need not only better preparation, but a way to develop a culture of initiative.

There is an advantage Tokyo has over other cities when it comes to flooding or Tsunamis... http://news.yahoo.com/photos/tokyo-s-gigantic-flood-prevention-system-1319761029-slideshow/

Be prepared, that's all you need to be and that's all one can do.

And the 70% chance of an earthquake of 7+ in the next 4 years has already been discredited by international seismologists as well as the people that originally stated it. Earthquakes cannot be predicted!! so I don't know why it keeps on coming up again and again and again and again. Sheeple creation 101?! Give me a break.

@gw

Yeah but sadly triage in Japan means "our beds are full or we dont have THAT kind of doctor, go to another hospital"

I think you are being unfair to the Japanese medical teams - the response after 3.11 was amazing in my very humble and admittedly unqualified opinion. I think people excel in adversity and wilt in normality. I agree the often reported cases of pregnant women being ferried from hospital to hospital is almost criminal in this society.

gyoUza

Is this another kind of mind control through fear To the population? As many of you know ( or should know) the media is always trying to put us things in our heads so the general population will see this, think about it, fear from it and as a collective conscience WEWILLMAKE THIS HAPPEN

Please please please be careful and don't think about this so negative " possible earthquake" Which is not real .

mega means 10.0 9,600 is chump change when a 10.0 hits.

I suppose if the government, agencies and scientists were conversely quiet about this, people would be jumping up and down that they're hiding the truth of the impending big one. While the veracity of casualties and likelihoods of a big quake can be questioned- the main thing to keep in mind is that the area is definitely overdue for a huge quake, and it's wise to be as prepared as practical. Fear-mongering or not, it's up to people to interpret data in a level manner and have it at the back of their heads that the geological time-bomb is ready to go off anytime.

Well, it should definitely be Japan's first priority to use all means possible in order to prepare for such a horrible event. I personally hope that these predictions of 50+% of an earthquake of that scale occurring in the next 4 years to be false, but we can not deny the possibility of such an event.

Is this another kind of mind control through fear To the population? As many of you know ( or should know) the media is always trying to put us things in our heads so the general population will see this, think about it, fear from it and as a collective conscience WEWILLMAKE THIS HAPPEN

No, it is not mind control. It is definitely a possibility and if you look at the recent history of Tokyo (say, the last 300 years) you will find many earthquakes of large magnitude. Unfortunately, this beautiful country suffers from the frequency of earthquakes. It is a way for the mother nature to remind us who is in actual charge.

We have to do whatever we can to cope with such a disaster, if it takes place.

Ibelieve the number quoted are at the minimum end of the scale, unfortunately. So any things to consider depending on what time of day it happens. Kobe was spared due to the quake happening very early in the morning. Anyone that has been to shinjuku, shibuya and Tokyo stations during rush hour should know how chaotic it will be if the quake strikes at that time. The trains are overcrowded and it would be horrific to imagine a packed train coming off the rails as the quake struck. However, the quake is out of our hands...

What we can do though is be prepared as much as possible. Be in the mindset to help each other out. I don't believe that Japanese people have that mindset and often turn a blind eye at any moment of confrontation or trouble. People here put too much trust in authority; they should be using their own initiative. Authority (ie any help from emergency services/govt.) won't be in any position to help out when the roads and streets are in a complete state of disarray.

**Is this another kind of mind control through fear To the population? As many of you know ( or should know) the media is always trying to put us things in our heads so the general population will see this, think about it, fear from it and as a collective conscience WEWILLMAKE THIS HAPPEN

I think it's been the opposite, actually. The Japanese government has been trying to downplay threats and problems and tell people it's all okay, when really it's not. See: Fukushima and nuclear power.

I think it comes down to Possibility & Probability.

Sure there is a possibility of an earth quake of such magnitude in the next 4 year, however there isn't any statistical evidence to points to it being a probable event. Or better yet, there is a possibility that an advanced Dinosaur Alien race will come and take over the earth tomorrow.

Unfortunately earthquakes are random events (as are Dinosaur Alien Races visiting us tomorrow...would be cool though), if they weren't random then we would be experiencing them on the same day, same hour throughout the year for all of recorded history; which is not the case.

I recall in the 80's they said there would be a big one on the San Andreas fault within 10 years which would destroy LA and cause havoc and mass destruction across the west coast of North America. Was possible, but never happened.

My main point is be prepared as that is all one can do...Nature is just too powerful in this respect.

And keep in mind, a wise seismologist's saying (paraphrasing here), "we still don't know if and earthquake is and earthquake, pre-shock or after-shock."

a sobering thought for all of us living on the Rim of Fire. The figure seems very low though... One could imagine it being much more. Still, we mustn't live our lies in fear of chance! Random chance brought us into being and randomness may return us to dust... the universe chunters along without any meaning irrespective.

I think that the people in Tokyo should expect nothing from their government in the event of a massive earthquake, then they won't be disappointed. You won't get any food, water or clothing. You might find a crowded place in which to shelter, but that's all you will get. The evacuation shelter near to us didn't even have water last year, so make sure you have some at home.

After the earthquake last year I would recommend people buy one of those little gas cookers and some spare gas cartridges. You won't be able to get them after a quake and with no power or gas you won't be able to cook anything otherwise. You also need to keep an emergency supply of food at home as the shops will be closed, maybe for days.

Bring it on , lets get it over and done with , then the scare mongers will have nothing to scare the masses with and we'll all be able to move forward with the threat past us all.

Tohoku is in the middle of nowhere and they had almost 20 thousand dead, Tokyo is no Tohoku so my guess is that 9,600 is just a joke, many, many more of us will die here in Shinjuku, Shibuya, Ikebukuro, Yokohama etc..just my humble opinion.

Many people are saying the predicted number of deaths is too low, but it seems reasonable to me if you compare it with the Hanshin earthquake. That was a magnitude 7.3 quake (JMA scale, not sure if the same scale is used in the article). But perhaps more important is that intensity levels of shindo 7 were measured in highly built-up areas, and so is comparable to what might be expected in Tokyo. Time of day will of course be a factor, although exactly how is not clear. For example, in Kobe, a later quake would have killed more on the transport network but fewer in residential fires and collapsed residential buildings. Most important will be the extent of the area that experiences the highest intensity levels. I'm no expert, but is there any reason to think this will be vastly higher than in the Hanshin earthquake?

Concerning collapsing skyscrapers, I don't think any modern high building in Kobe collapsed. Damage was mainly to older structures. Tokyo may benefit here in that older structures, including highways, were probably built to higher standards than was the case in Kobe.

"Why do they believe that there is no potential for tsunami damage all along Tokyo Bay?"

I'm no seismologist, but I'd say they believe that because it's quite inconvenient for them to believe otherwise. There are flood gates, but whether they can and will be activated in such a situation is hard to predict. I hope the buildings were built to higher standards, but anyone remember the Aneha scandal? Architect who falsified construction plans. Does anybody seriously believe that he is the only architect who's ever done that? If we consider the fabrications abounding in the nuclear power industry, can we assume that the construction industry, known to be a hotbed of gangster activity, is building safe dwellings?

9600?!?!?! That won't even ease the crowds on the trains.... Bring it on.

The estimate is very low.

The earthquake would probably does not kill, but the fire will. This may not be a good example, however, when Tokyo was bombed in 1945 by B29s, the fire was very intense and it ended up killing over 100,000 people in Tokyo.

You need to ban an use of karosine heaters from residential property. I hope someone is thinking about this seriously.

that korean guyApr. 19, 2012 - 09:37AM JST the estimate seems somewhat optimistic... doesn't even include people who will be killed by the mobs and rooting...

There will be no mobs and no looting. Guess you were not here for the last one March.

And by the way, you sound Japanese pronouncing Looting as Rooting.

@korea-guy...

There will be no killing by mobs in Japan... elsewhere will...

Sure there is a possibility of an earth quake of such magnitude in the next 4 year, however there isn't any statistical evidence to points to it being a probable event

I think this is the point. A few months ago, they said 75%, then it was 70%, now they are saying 50%. Well, a 50% chance of something happening is only a maybe. It also means there's a 50% chance that an major earthquake WON'T hit Tokyo in the next four years. Plus, I'm sure they would give the same possibility for many areas in Japan.

Simulation? That sounds like a waste of time! I don't believe that Japan needs to conduct a test to know what will happen! It's seems obvious by now doesn't it?

@that korean guy The Japanese population may not consist of only saints, but mobs and looting are most definitely not high on the list of things to worry about after a mega-quake here. Plenty else to be concerned about, though.

Actually there's a Beat Takeshi special on about it right now. I think it would be better without the BGM and the three girls in the background nodding and looking scared at the appropriate moments. But, I guess you can't educate people without scary music and girls in short skirts in the background.

@japangal, @rowiko68 - i respectfully disagree. the last major earthquake in densely populated area in japan was the great kanto earthquake of 1923 and many ethnic minorities got killed by the mobs who simply needed to vent their frustration. the officials didn't seem to care too much as, like rowiko68 said, there were other things to worry about.

of course that was 100 years ago and i'm hoping that japanese have evolved somewhat. then i ask myself, why is the guy like ishihara keeps getting reelected? maybe that's cuz the japanese mentality haven't evolved much from the glory of great east-asia coprosperity thing...

I think they just came up with number based on the Kansai quake. It was a 7.5 and killed just over 6,000 people, so add a few more deaths for magnitude, times it by the population difference and they get this magic number, which should have only taken about five minutes to come up with. It is impossible to predict how many people would die cos there are too many variables.

There actually was some looting and some mobs last time, just not a lot. I think it's pretty silly to claim Japan is "too good" for that kind of thing, that's very dangerous thinking. Desperate people will do desperate things to survive, or when they are frustrated and scared. Maybe Japanese society is more inclined to have faith in one another, but that doesn't mean there aren't going to be people looting or mobs.

Like people who claim that there are no thieves in Japan. Um, yes, there are. The crime rate is lower, but it's NOT nonexistent.

Our instruments http://tron.ru/2012_predictions_earthquake_Japan/ say that up to May 25, 2013 earthquake in Tokyo would not be. So do not worry.

I thought these "experts" said there was a 70% chance of the biggie happening within 4 years. Now it's 50%? At that rate the probability will be 30% and then just 10% over the next few weeks. No worries! I'm going to go out on a limb and say that there's a 100% chance I'm going to die within the next 80 years! If these things really were predictable, someone would be very wealthy. I think I saw a T-shirt once that said, '76.9% of statistics are wrong'!

"Unfortunately earthquakes are random events" Jozsef Wittek, good comment.

The central issue is warning and response. Even if there were a warning what could be the response? It is unacceptable to classify earthquakes as random events. That creates the prejudice of insolubility. Unacceptable.

Another study by a 'research' group which does nothing but speculate and put fear into people. There's nothing we can do to stop a earthquake from happening.

I'm surprised the number is so low given the types of a lot of buildings. I know the Sumitomo building is supposed to be able to sway 9m (that's what I was told) at the top. But just the other side of the Shinjuku central park the buildings don't look so stable. I hope we never find out the hard way.

Not 9500 or 9700 casualties. 9600 to be exact. In a city of 14 million. Its so sad to see such an inability to compromise and deal with the fact that it could be anywhere from 10000 to probably 20000 or 30000. Their ability to estimate a number is as weak as mine.

The city of Sendai was located 130km from the epicentre of the Tōhoku-chihō - a 9.0 - and it suffered very little catastrophic damage from the quake itself. The buildings held up very well. The problem in the Tokyo Bay region is that there is much more fill than in Sendai. Sendai did not suffer liquefaction; most of the city is built on sturdy ground.

I hate to sound OPTIMISTIC but sooner or later we are all going to die, this is just part of the game of life and death, we never know really when our time is up, can we die in a big quake in Tokyo, sure, maybe, can we die just trying to cross the street and getting hit by a car, truck, bus etc..in Tokyo??? YES!! What can we do to try and survive a major quake?? Keep water and food etc... handy and ready to use, in my case solar power lights in case we get hit in the middle of the night etc..but am I losing sleep over this?? No, even though it is only 4 26 am, just getting ready to go to work, have a nice day amigos!

Must be a typo, 9600 isn't even close. Either that or their simulation is wrong.

Is this even news?

People impoverished by earthquakes in Kobe are dying in their homes forgotten-now that is news!!!