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Tokyo reports 157 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 779

33 Comments

The Tokyo Metropolitan Government on Monday reported 157 new cases of the coronavirus, down 32 from Sunday. The number is the result of 3,540 tests conducted on Nov 6.

The tally brought Tokyo's cumulative total to 32,767.

By age group, the most number of cases were people in their 20s (33).

The number of infected people in Tokyo with severe symptoms is 35, one down from Saturday, health officials said.

Nationwide, the number of reported cases was 779. Hokkaido had the highest number with 200, followed by Tokyo, then Osaka (78), Aichi (57) and Saitama (51).

Twelve coronavirus-related deaths were reported.


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33 Comments
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FWIW, this the highest number of Monday cases since Aug 17, when it was 161.

1 ( +11 / -10 )

yes these numbers are weird because the testing rates fluctuate so much with widely different positive cases found each time. but just went back to one of your posts Zoroto and like the thinking - never considered this: 'My guess is a set of people (politicians, athletes, tarento) get tested weekly regardless of any symptoms, and it just happens to be on Thursday/Friday. So, of course, they mostly come back negative'. Can't wait to read the freakenomics take on all this stuff whenever they figure it out!

-4 ( +3 / -7 )

A very low number considering goto travel and opening up of international travel.

7 ( +9 / -2 )

Is it possible to have corona and a cold or influenza at the same time?

It is widely assumed the virus is already widespread and up to 80 % are asymmetrical

Therefore is it possible the recent uptick is due to coronavirus being found present in people who are sick with something else and would have gone unrecorded otherwise.

3 ( +8 / -5 )

Asymmetrical? I understand antibodies fall fast and may not be detectable after a few months.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

asymptomatic

Sorry

2 ( +5 / -3 )

It is widely assumed the virus is already widespread and up to 80 % are asymtomatic

There is no real evidence for assuming that, this conclusion is not congruent with what is observed in reality and it depends on extremely rare things (non-replicating viruses being picked up by the tests) happening all the time.

Even if it is theoretically possible that an noninfected person could give a positive because the test picks up viral RNA coming from other people sitting in his throat or nose, that is not realistically possible. For the test to become positive it is required for the virus to be present and replicating in the billions, so enough copies of its genome can be detected.

3 ( +8 / -5 )

Prediction: Within two weeks, Japan will break its national cases per day record (1595).

4 ( +9 / -5 )

The Hokkaido numbers are starting to look a bit worrying.

Shikoku on the other hand has barely any cases at all.

3 ( +6 / -3 )

Lowest infection numbers, Olympic test competition successful, what else do you still want? lol

-5 ( +3 / -8 )

For the test to become positive it is required for the virus to be present and replicating in the billions, so enough copies of its genome can be detected

This isn't exactly true. The PCR test will return positive even if the virus isn't replicating.

This is what we call a false positive. Also how, as of now "re-infections" are explained .

Also it likely isn't extremely rare.

If you are unlucky and fail to collect the virus by swabbing the test will return Negative, false negative.

Of course this is assuming everything else in the process is perfect

-4 ( +2 / -6 )

Is it possible to have corona and a cold or influenza at the same time?

Yes , of course it is. It is also possible to test positive for covid19 and symptomatic but actually not covid19 ill.

-1 ( +4 / -5 )

This is what we call a false positive.

Who is we? Are you some kind of doctor or epidemiologist?

0 ( +3 / -3 )

Shikoku on the other hand has barely any cases at all.

How many tests Shikoku prefectures do on an average day?

0 ( +3 / -3 )

Who is we?

Apologies for the ambiguity.

We the non mentals call it false positive

Are you some kind of doctor or epidemiologist?

No ! I just read wikipedia s lot

0 ( +3 / -3 )

Even if it is theoretically possible that an noninfected person could give a positive because the test picks up viral RNA coming from other people sitting in his throat or nose, that is not realistically possible. For the test to become positive it is required for the virus to be present and replicating in the billions, so enough copies of its genome can be detected.

None viable viruses can result in positive PCR results. And you don't need much to get a positive result. It depends on how many cycles they do. A number of countries do 40 or 45 cycles, which many experts say is meaningless and results in too many false positives. I believe the recommended is 25-30 cycles. I don't know how many cycles are done in Japan.

It is widely assumed the virus is already widespread and up to 80 % are (asymptomatic).

Indeed, I also think this is the case, and this terrifies those who expected to profit from vaccines...

-5 ( +1 / -6 )

This isn't exactly true. The PCR test will return positive even if the virus isn't replicating.

Not a valid positive, you need a huge amount of viruses so the dilution made by the secretions continuously washing the mucosa still leaves enough to be detected.

The virus has to replicate in the person (or have been replicating until recently) for the test to become validly positive. Just getting a few viruses in your nose and expecting them to be picked up by the test is not realistic.

This is what we call a false positive. Also how, as of now "re-infections" are explained .

Reinfections also require huge amount of viral remains, produced by the virus replicating in the patient until enough genomes are left over for detection.

Also it likely isn't extremely rare

Based on what? what is the genome copy limit of detection? how much is the infective dose? how much viral particles per cm2 are present in a person a minute after getting exposed, 10 minutes later, an hour?

You need that information to say that it is not extremely rare.

If you are unlucky and fail to collect the virus by swabbing the test will return Negative, false negative.

Yes, and that happens with people expelling billions of viruses per ml of saliva, that is not even enough quantity to assure there will never be a false negative, thus the point that expecting a tiny microscopic fraction to become positive frequently is not rational.

None viable viruses can result in positive PCR results. And you don't need much to get a positive result. It depends on how many cycles they do. A number of countries do 40 or 45 cycles, which many experts say is meaningless and results in too many false positives

Which is completely different with the rates observed in Japan, which are in the single digits most of the time even when only suspected people are tested.

False positive are not a problem reported as frequent in Japan,

Indeed, I also think this is the case, and this terrifies those who expected to profit from vaccines...

The experts think the opposite, and they have the epidemiological data to prove it, thinking that the opposite is true just because you don't know the evidence is not a rational position.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

WaywardnihonToday 

Prediction: Within two weeks, Japan will break its national cases per day record (1595).

I predict within this week.

FYI, Hokkaido cases today just hit 200 for the first time, and it was only 3 or 4 days ago that Hokkaido cases went over 100 for the first time.....

2 ( +4 / -2 )

Covid-19 data. From the Tokyo Metropolitan Government.

https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/

Number of hospitalized people reported yesterday: 1060.

Number of hospitalized people reported today: 1114.

Day-over-day change: +54 persons

Mild-moderate and Serious symptoms data. They are already included in the total number of people hospitalized. It should also be remembered that data on severe symptoms are already reflected in the Japan Today article. And there is no need to mention them again in the comments.

Patients hospitalized by COVID in Tokyo Prefecture, per 100,000 inhabitants. Saturday 07/11/2020 was: 7,09.

Patients hospitalized by COVID in Tokyo Prefecture, per 100,000 inhabitants. Today Monday 09/11/2020 is: 7,99

In 2 days. The rate of people hospitalized per 100,000 inhabitants, in Tokyo Prefecture.It rose by 0.90 points. It's practically at 8 points. It is a moderate rise. With an average of 0,45 points per day, during these 2 days.

With the international standard criteria. The situation is still not serious enough. But if in the short term. It reaches 10 points per 100,000 inhabitants of people hospitalized. The authorities should already consider taking action.

As a capacity limitation in interiors. Whether in stores, supermarkets or restaurants. Reduce the number of diners in groups, for each table. And exterior terraces with a capacity of 75%. In order to respect the distance of 2 meters between people.

But that should only happen if the 10 points are exceeded. For now Tokyo is at 8 points.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

Not a valid positive, you need a huge amount of viruses so the dilution made by the secretions continuously washing the mucosa still leaves enough to be detected.

Not only that, it further then needs the RNA converted to DNA. It is a fair assumption this, but that is far the science goes. The volume also also depends on the collection method.

Unfortunately I don't know if the virus particles samples used in mass RT-PCR testing are replicating or not. Do you have any data ?

Based on what?

Based on the fact that reinfections are difficult to understand. If reinfections are possible then I don't see why first time infections should be more then reinfections.

Of course I am assuming enough of the virus genome is in the nose or throat to be detected.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

FYI, Hokkaido cases today just hit 200 for the first time, and it was only 3 or 4 days ago that Hokkaido cases went over 100 for the first time.....

Hokkaidk number of tests done on november 6th 1964

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Okay, here is the problem most of the cases are people in their 20's and 30's there is no contact tracing in this country, and so, you have to assume the numbers are way higher because this is the age group that goes out and about and if they were a-systematic for sure the numbers are higher.

Second, if you notice the death rate has gone from 0 to maybe one or 2 a day has now gone up in the past few weeks to 5 to 10 a day. Today, the death total is 10 and yesterday 6 and the way it is going I imagine those numbers just to keep increasing with flu season.

The only upside to winter and if there are many flu cases the testing for COVID will jump and that is the only way to bring down the numbers by diagnosing and isolating.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

Unfortunately I don't know if the virus particles samples used in mass RT-PCR testing are replicating or not. Do you have any data ?

it is not that particles have to be "replicating" during the sampling or the testing, "Replication" for this means that in order to detect the virus it is necessary to get a good amount of RNA, if a person gets exposed to a few thousand viruses it may be enough to infect him, but definitely not enough to be detected by the test because the sampling will only get a few viruses. Reverse transcription to make DNA is routine and with a proper protocol each copy of RNA is converted to DNA without problem.

If the person gets infected and the virus replicate, those few thousands become millions the next day, billions the next, trillions 3 days later, etc. and then even if you get only a small fraction of those trillions you still get a few billions to be detected in the test. We are literally talking about billions or trillions times more of viruses present when the person is actually infected (and the virus replicate) instead of just "contaminated".

Reinfections are not difficult to understand, they are quite simple. Either the virus changes so it is not longer detected by the immune system (something that has not happened with COVID-19 in this whole year) or the person has a health problem that compromises his immunity and the virus gets a free pass to infect as if it were the first time.

Now, think for a moment, the viruses are constantly infecting new cells and producing more viruses, in order to defeat the infection the immune system has to be capable of overcoming this state until the virus is no longer able to replicate and the patient gets cured. If reinfections were something as easy to get as the primary infection there would be nobody being cured. The patient would get continuously reinfected by the huge amount of viruses that are produced in the tissue.

A body that can defeat trillions of viruses being produced continuously 24/7 has no difficulty to defeating a few thousands that gets introduced again in the respiratory system. That is why reinfections are not common, they require that the body loses the ability to defend itself at some point after it defeats the first infection.

3 ( +5 / -2 )

@virusrex

Great comments. I'm leaning a lot from them.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Coronavirus vaccine breakthrough: Pfizer jab 90% effective and set for roll out in WEEKS

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

it is not that particles have to be "replicating" during the sampling or the testing,

Sorry you wrote "the virus has to be present and replicating" which l think led to confusion . The Virus has to be present enough is probably what you meant.

Reinfections are not difficult to understand,

Sure , like a person that is also infected with influenza or fighting some other pathogen; now in the same time If a nose swab can produce enough RNA I think it is fair to assume that a cough or a sneeze (half a billion virus particles ) could result PCR detectable re infection

I maybe wrong, about the reinfections but the logic why we see more infections If we test more and especially during winter sort of works in my head

Are primary asymptomatic infections also easy to understand ?

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Why, as in spring, is Hokkaido getting more cases than other more populous area?

0 ( +0 / -0 )

False positive are not a problem reported as frequent in Japan,

They are not because in my opinion the testing in Japan is rather sensible.

The question here for is do we mass test or not ?

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

The question here for is do we mass test or not ?

Looking forward to it.

A mass test, at least once. We need that data.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

But we're still going to have the Olympics next year, right? Right??

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Sure , like a person that is also infected with influenza or fighting some other pathogen; now in the same time If a nose swab can produce enough RNA I think it is fair to assume that a cough or a sneeze (half a billion virus particles ) could result PCR detectable re infection

The body is chocked full of RNA, cells produce it constantly to make proteins, having other infections is not a factor to increase the rate of false positives for the PCR because every time you swab you get a huge lot of RNA, even if the person is completely healthy. The test used for coronavirus detects two (or three) different regions of the genome and with a sequence that is only present on the pandemic virus. It does not matter if you are having 7 other infections at the time, if you don't have corona none of those regions will be present and the test remains negative.

False positives come from "inespecfic amplification" where every now and then completely different genetic sequences are misrecognized and give a positive result, but precisely because it is completely inespecific other pathogens are irrelevant, it is as likely to happen from the RNA produced by the cells of the body.

Are primary asymptomatic infections also easy to understand ?

In general yes, that is how our body works for endless other pathogens that never produce disease, they can enter the body, reproduce slightly and then be defeated before even producing a fever.

What it is difficult to understand is why some people are asymptomatic for COVID-19 but others don't, it may be so simple as being exposed to small quantities of the virus (like in a natural vaccine) or as complicated as having a combination of a genetic predisposition to a certain way of immunity and previous exposure to proteins that are similar enough to be helpful.

They are not because in my opinion the testing in Japan is rather sensible.

The problem with the testing in Japan is that it assumes the spreading is controlled, so it only works to corroborate if that is the case or not.

In other countries the testing is much more common, to make the control easier to do, not only to see if it is present or not.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

What it is difficult to understand is why some people are asymptomatic for COVID-19 but others don't, it may be so simple as being exposed to small quantities of the virus (like in a natural vaccine)

Natural vaccine?!!! You mean natural infection with a virus that shares some epitopes with SARSCoV2?

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Natural vaccine?!!! You mean natural infection with a virus that shares some epitopes with SARSCoV2?

No, natural infection with the SARS-Cov-2, but at a quantity that for that person produces only abortive infection but above the levels necessary to elicit an immune response.

A process much less safe than a real vaccine but that, in theory, could produce protective immunity without symptoms.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

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