Tokyo reports 211 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 612

Two hundred and something. For three months now. But what is the medium term plan? There is none.

The Tokyo metropolitan government on Thursday reported 211 new cases of the coronavirus, up 70 from Wednesday. Of the total, 107 are in their 20s and 30s.

The number is the result of 5,428 tests.

That's 1 out of every 25-26 people (that have been tested). That's pretty high

klausdorthToday 04:03 pm JST

Just waiting for the deniers, those who claim that everything is under control.

It definitely is not, and please don't start comparing these numbers with those of other countries.

Because then you also would have to compare the amount of those tested.

While you are at it why don't you mention the comparison concerning screen criteria for testing as well?

In Japan you would need to have either symptoms or had close contact with a known carrier to even consider to be tested.

No testing without those two points and not many will considered to be tested without them either.

So what would you have us do? Shut down the economy and go back into hiding?

Just under 3.8% percent of those tested are positive. Higher than the U.K., which is less than 1%, and most of Western Europe, with the exception of a Spain and Portugal, and Australia.

Yet we are often told here and elsewhere that the rest of the world is still awful at mitigating the virus and Japan has done so much better.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing

Because then you also would have to compare the amount of those tested.

and also the number of total deaths, deaths per capita, case fatality rate.

Shall we?

Because then you also would have to compare the amount of those tested.

and also the number of total deaths, deaths per capita, case fatality rate.

Shall we?

Yes. Lets

Germany

total deaths: 9307

deaths per 100,000: 11.22

Case fatality rate: 3.8%

Japan

Total deaths: 1313

deaths per 100,000: 1.04

Case fatality rate 1.04%

back to you

Just under 3.8% percent of those tested are positive. Higher than the U.K., which is less than 1%, and most of Western Europe, with the exception of a Spain and Portugal, and Australia.

Don't you people get it the reason the percent is high in Japan is because you only get tested if you have symptoms or have been around a cluster. If you test everyone then of course the percent will be very low.

Seems many posters here really want Japan to suffer like many other countries, we are lucky to live here as not much chance to get infected and life is quite normal with no extreme lock-downs.

The more people you test, asymptomatic or otherwise, the more accurate the data. The worrying thing about only testing people within a narrow criteria is how many more are out there with virus? The real percentage is probably higher.

@Orac. The numbers in the article are dealing with those infected, not the mortality rate. Deaths are a different set of statistics. Overall other countries have had higher death rates and higher infection rates, usually due to the fact they did too little too late when the pandemic started. When they did get their act together numbers went down. The U.K., for example, initially left older people to get infected, until public outcry made them change tack. The U.K. also has a bigger percentage of overweight and obese people, and weight has been identified as a major cause of mortality.

You compare apples to oranges if you want, but as of today Japan has a higher infection rate than many other countries.

You know guys...I really don’t understand that even after 9 months in this pandemic, you still didn’t understand that we have to live with the Virus.

This Virus will not go away.

If there are 211 cases, 11 cases or 100.011 cases, it makes no difference for our daily life.

Also more tests makes no difference for our daily life.

We have to go to work, bring food on the table and have to make sure that we have a roof above our heads. (Probably except the born rich guys or supported by rich parents guys)

And like @Fiddler said, don't you guys understand that Japan is testing only people with symptoms or got in contact with an infected person?

This is known since 9 months!

And if after 9 months, you guys still do not understand how to do your best personal prevention AND go on with your daily life, then you really ran around with closed eyes during the last 9 months.

Lockdowns???

Look at the other article here about Australia. Strict lockdown since many weeks and today cases increased to highest since 8 days.

Testing does make a difference to our daily lives and it is naive to say otherwise.

@Luddite

Okay, please tell me what difference?

More tests will probably give more positive results.

And then?

Will you quit your job?

Will stop working?

Will you stop buying food at supermarket?

Agree with Monty,

cmon guys, nine months already.

stop obsessing about the number of tests and get on with your life.

With so little testing it means the death/serious illness rate is much lower than reported.

So many people must not understand who is actually tested in Japan. It is not like other countries where asymptomatic people randomly get tested.

Japan definitely has a different approach than most western countries and after more than a half-year there have been so few casualties, comparatively. It is encouraging to still see people able to work in all industries here.

The Japan approach is try not to overburden the hospitals. Let people with mild cases recover at home or in designated hotels. Given a lot of people recover on their own so far this has worked. Despite the doomsayers, the health care system hasn’t collapsed. Look at the number of people who have recovered.

Many countries are only admitting the very sick to hospital, those with mild symptoms are staying at home. It is not a “Japanese approach”.

@Monty I have not indicated that more testing would mean I would stay at home, what a huge leap in logic you have made. Without testing it is impossible to effectively mitigate the effects of the virus. Why do you think Japan is testing at airports and quarantining? Mitigation. The current infection rates for Japan show their Covid policy is ineffective. That’s why you test, to see if what you are doing is working, and what you can do to improve the situation. Ignorance is not bliss, it kills both people and the economy.

@Luddite

You didnt answer the question.

Where do more testing change your daily life?

Positive rate is important but obviously taking in account what kind of testing is being performed.

In the case of Tokyo it is very strongly directed, this percentage means the fraction of suspected people that actually got the disease, with this context it is not a bad number but still that does not mean more testing is not necessary.

One thing is to test few people to see how well the spreading is being controlled (like now) another very different is to test to make sure the spreading is being controlled. Testing strategies would expand to include not only the suspected people (because of symptoms or contact with a confirmed case) but also the contacts of the suspected people, and preemptively also people in close contact with vulnerable population. On that strategy you would expect much lower positive rates because you are no longer testing people you are expected to be positive but also some you expect to be negative.

case fatality rate seems to be a poor metric to use when comparing severity among countries because as mentioned, different countries can greatly differ in number of testing.

A country with a very high number of testing can have low cfr even if covid patients are dying left and right.

Conversely a country with low numbers of testing like Japan can have high rates even though number of deaths is very low here.

A better metric to use would be deaths per number of people like the deaths per million people in worldometer.

We can see at a glance how countries are doing comparatively irrespective of testing numbers

In the same vein we can also use that metric to see if the situation here in Japan is improving or worsening irrespective of testing numbers.

We just look at the number of deaths, whether it is increasing or decreasing

In Japan you would need to have either symptoms or had close contact with a known carrier to even consider to be tested.

You can still have symptoms and still not be tested, by the there are several symptoms, temperature

is the criterion mostly used despite it being well known that you can be infected and not having any fever

If it was the case as you purport the rate of infection would be far higher closer to 50% or above as those

tested are showing symptoms.

Of the total, 107 are in their 20s and 30s.

what of the vulnerable age group, is it more important than the 20s and 30s

that are not vulnerable to the virus.

Japan has done well protecting the most vulnerable.

That’s why you test, to see if what you are doing is working, and what you can do to improve the situation

What exactly are you trying to see if it works ? Other countries examples are welcome too.

In Japan the only thing you can see by "mass testing" is if the masks and social distancing are working. but there are also less expensive and rather conclusive ways to tell lab experiments, computer simulations etc.. all of which done by several universities .

In reality in Japan the night life has been identified as difficult to control and measures have been taken (not perfect but what can you do .they need to live too.).

In reality in Japan the night life has been identified as difficult to control and measures have been taken (not perfect but what can you do .they need to live too.).

What measures have been taken or was taken?

If the policy is elimination mass testing makes sense, if the policy is not to over run hospitals selective testing appears the best approach.

Either way, testing isnt going to increase and people are increasingly going back to living a regular sociak life

Apart from the border being closed, here in Japan we are pretty much able to live a normal life with little risk of death even among the very old and weak.

Clearly something is working.

case fatality rate seems to be a poor metric to use when comparing severity among countries because as mentioned, different countries can greatly differ in number of testing.

A country with a very high number of testing can have low cfr even if covid patients are dying left and right.

Going by your argument a country that is not testing might not the true number of deaths due to the virus

if it doesn't test every fatality that wasn't tested before they passed away. We know that those that appear in

the fatality count due the virus are only those who tested positive prior to passing away.

The whole thing is smoke and mirrors

Stickman

Japan has done well protecting the most vulnerable.

It is not like workers in elderly homes are doing regular mandatory PCR test.

So what has Japan really done ?

What measures have been taken or was taken?

The hostess club were closed and they are receiving financial help .

I think there were limits to operating hours on bars and restaurants too.

Also just talking loud about it on the news helps a lot. It simply makes very difficult for salary man to visit these establishments. Once you know and have been informed on TV, told in your office to stay away because you could potentially cause damage, it is not so easy to make excuses nor being forgiven.

If the policy is elimination mass testing makes sense

In theory yes. In reality in Japan I actually think it is impossible. First you need lots of cheap and trained labor. then machines, then you will have to define frequency and then at some point you will have to stop testing and open borders based on not reliable information from other countries.

the fatality count due the virus are only those who tested positive prior to passing away.

I am not 100% certain because I watched it on Japanese news in Japanese during the heat stroke days. But I think the doctor there mentioned the risky group patients brought there by ambulance are tested for C19 anyway. I would assume deaths are treated in similar ways. It would be nice if someone that can read japanese manage to find the definition for C19 death in Japan.

So what has Japan really done ?

Japan as in the Japanese people really a lot and worth all the respect there is.

Nobody really winges all day long test this test that for no reason. Quite the opposite everyone is proactive tries their best to help slow the spread in every possible way they can.

N1K1

I too think elimination is impossible and at best only a short term solution.

That's why I have no problem with japans testing policy.

Also, I agree people in Japan have acted in a reasonable and measured way, wearing masking cutting back on travel to from major cities, while also not overreacting with extreme social distancing and demanding lockdowns.

As I repeatedly say, I wouldnt want to live anywhere else.

drluciferToday  09:57 pm

the fatality count due the virus are only those who tested positive prior to passing away.

Not true, a number of corona deaths in Okinawa were tested post death.

>

drluciferToday 09:57 pm JST

Going by your argument a country that is not testing might not the true number of deaths due to the virus

if it doesn't test every fatality that wasn't tested before they passed away. We know that those that appear in

the fatality count due the virus are only those who tested positive prior to passing away.

The whole thing is smoke and mirrors

Complete false.

Statistically the number of death does not change dramatically year by year unless there is an anomaly like this pandemic in which you can calculate a ball park estimate of who past away through the known pandemic patients against other statistically known causes.

In other words there will be a large spike of unknown catalogued deaths or anomalies spikes in death within other categories to what you call "Smoke and Mirrors" since there will be no spikes in death statistically that cannot be explained in this modern world that records all.

Active cases continue to fall and several prefectures are into single figures for active cases (Wakayama, Niigata, Yamagata, Aomori, Shimane and Ehime). Tottori has no cases at all.

New cases are half what they were a few weeks ago. Japan is dealing with the virus well and things are getting better.