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Tokyo reports 305 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 1,667

34 Comments

The Tokyo metropolitan government on Monday reported 305 new cases of the coronavirus, down 175 from Sunday. The number is the result of 5,291 tests conducted on Dec 11.

The tally brought Tokyo's cumulative total to 47,530.

By age group, the highest number of cases were people in their 20s (85), followed by 55 in both their 30s and 40s and 36 in their 50s.

The number of infected people hospitalized with severe symptoms in Tokyo is 73, up three from Sunday, health officials said.

Nationwide, the number of reported cases as of 6:30 p.m. was 1,661. After Tokyo, the prefectures with the most cases were Osaka (185), Hokkaido (125), Kanagawa (121), Aichi (114), Hiroshima (110), Saitama (102), Chiba (80), Hyogo (65), Fukuoka (58), Kyoto (40) and Shizuoka (27).

Thirty-three coronavirus-related deaths were reported.

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34 Comments
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"See! it's all under control"

""Just you wait, they'll go up again in a few days"

Prepare for Japans biweekly trough, following the inevitable biweekly peak.

-8 ( +5 / -13 )

The low weekend testing continues....

-2 ( +10 / -12 )

The number of infected people hospitalized with severe symptoms in Tokyo is 73, up three from Sunday, health officials said.

This is concerning. What exactly is the definition of "severe symptoms"?

6 ( +10 / -4 )

@Zoro: The results are from four days before, so these are last Friday's results.

4 ( +11 / -7 )

@Zoro: The results are from four days before, so these are last Friday's results.

OK, low Friday testing continues then...

Tomorrow the # of tests will be

-3 ( +7 / -10 )

This is based on, yesterday's testing, which would be incredibly low since it was Sunday and most hospitals come to a crawl and only take in the dire cases. I am sure this number may give some a sense of false security, however, not me just watch tomorrow's numbers jump after today's testing. People are still out there in huge numbers refusing to stay home.

-6 ( +5 / -11 )

This is based on, yesterday's testing, which would be incredibly low since it was Sunday and most hospitals come to a crawl and only take in the dire cases. I am sure this number may give some a sense of false security, however, not me just watch tomorrow's numbers jump after today's testing. People are still out there in huge numbers refusing to stay home.

-6 ( +5 / -11 )

Didn’t you read the info? It said from tests conducted on Friday, Dec. 11

-1 ( +6 / -7 )

Why so few tests on Friday? Everyone going home early???

4 ( +8 / -4 )

Didn’t you read the info? It said from tests conducted on Friday, Dec. 11

Seems many people don't bother to read the article properly and just want to rant and be negative about the low testing.

I think what is more important is that the hospitals and morgues are not full compared to many other countries around the world. I do however think the GOTO campaign was not wise.

-9 ( +3 / -12 )

@Ashley. The article states that this number is from tests on December 11th - not from yesterday which you open up with. Yes - the number will almost certainly be higher tomorrow- and yes, people are still refusing to stay home because there is no mechanism to make them do so.

-2 ( +7 / -9 )

@Ashley: Three times you insisted it was from tests from yesterday.

Four short paragraphs and the first one tells you how many days ago the tests results were from. This has been consistent all along. Four days before counting today. Last Friday. :-)

-3 ( +5 / -8 )

Yes - the number will almost certainly be higher tomorrow- and yes, people are still refusing to stay home because there is no mechanism to make them do so.

Why? More sick people on Saturday? I would expect less testing on Saturdays because many clinics are closed.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

@Reckless: Yes - you have the correct answer (pretty much as usual). The Monday and Tuesday numbers are relatively low due to reduced lab hours over the weekend. If these numbers are true PCR tests then the swab from when it is actually tested by the lab tech is about a 6 hour wait. The simpler but less accurate saliva test as used at the airports and some private can be processed in 20-30 minutes

1 ( +4 / -3 )

Why is it always "Tokyo reports?" More than 100 million people don't live in Tokyo.

0 ( +6 / -6 )

I do agree with you zichi - but the Tokyo number is normally (unless somewhere has a huge spike) reported first by NHK.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

I read the results are from Friday, however, I believe that to be an error as the tests are from the previous day and what was written today the same number was on Japan's COVID Tracker.

5 ( +7 / -2 )

Still lower than 50000 a day...

-6 ( +1 / -7 )

Reckless - What exactly is the definition of "severe symptoms"?

Being hospitalized and on a respirator with a severe fever. This virus effects everybody differently. Some people have very mild flu-like symptoms and others die a very horrible death with emphysema-like symptoms that destroy the lungs. Those who recover from severe symptoms have scarring on their lungs and greatly reduced life expectancy.

1 ( +4 / -3 )

As usual, I saw so many elderly people at train stations. Even in the present dangerous situation, they are still so brave.

But watching the attached video, we can find more brave people.

https://myfox8.com/news/viral-videos-showing-packed-bar-with-no-masks-stuns-nc-health-officials/

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

Again, and again, the same daily misunderstandings from everyone about the tests.

I posted this yesterday to explain the methods, and I'll post it again:

--

Every day to get the day's totals, all testing locations (clinics, hospitals, etc) in a prefecture are to report their most recent testing results to the prefectural health department by 9:00am. Until August this had to be done solely by FAX, but since then they now also allow e-mail forms. A single completed FAX or e-form must be submitted for each and every new positive case.

If a Fax/e-form is recieved after 9:00am, then it will be put into the next day's totals.

Starting at 9:01am, the prefectural health dept workers will compile, count, and report the results up the chain of command. Why it takes some prefectures until the evening to finally announce to the public is beyond me, but thats based on how each individual prefecture works.

So as far as reported results and when the testing for those results is specifically done, yeah it generally takes about 2 days for results to get completed and reported.

BUT, even though X-number of tests may have been done on (for example) Saturday and supposedly reported Monday (before 9am... or essentially between 9:01am Sunday and 9:00am Monday), in reality what is counted may include leftover results from Friday or even Thursday that were submitted after 9:01am on Sunday. Or some tests done on Saturday may get submitted after 9:01am on Monday (understandable since it was a weekend and staff is reduced or the place was closed) and won't get added in until Tuesday. Also with weekends, some clinics or testing locations may not submit any results on a Saturday or Sunday, or even do any testing at all on a weekend.

And of course, you can imagine the lag due to the need to individually submit report sheets for each positive case. Back when only Fax were allowed, it was apparently quite a log jam so they started with the e-forms, but even now many places still report with Fax.

So, yes, the number of tests conducted on a specific day may be known, but to say the any day's totals are based on the entirety of that specific day's results is wholly innaccurate.

0 ( +4 / -4 )

Any in the 20s think it’s a joke cause I’m younger than you old man. But you are the super virus spreader. Do or die. Listen youngsters. No joke.

0 ( +4 / -4 )

What exactly is the definition of "severe symptoms"?

For Tokyo Metro it is defined as requiring a ventilator or ECMO.

5 ( +5 / -0 )

"Still lower than 50000 a day..."

Because Japan don't even test 50,000 a day, so of course they won't have that number. If Japan actually tested at the numbers on par with other developed nations, Japan will have far higher reported numbers.

Keep in mind that Japan's, and especially Tokyo's criteria for "severe" is very strict. Even a patient in ICU is not necessarily qualified as severe.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

Not much sense to analyze day to day, better to look at a graph.

Graph of moving average shows cases are still on the climb, from below 200 4th week of October to below 500 now

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Updated data of people hospitalized, in Tokyo Prefecture.

https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/

Number of hospitalized patients 2,049 persons

Statistics for December 14(Day over-day change: +78 persons)

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Keep in mind that Japan's, and especially Tokyo's criteria for "severe" is very strict. Even a patient in ICU is not necessarily qualified as severe.

This. The patent has to be at death's door to be considered "severe" in Tokyo. With COVID-19, about 2/3 of people who are on ventilator never come off of it.

As blahblah222 mentioned, the patient can be in the ICU, but as long as they are not intubated, they are not "severe." Of course, this is a ludicrous criteria, because it goes against the common sense meaning of "severe."

1 ( +3 / -2 )

So, yes, the number of tests conducted on a specific day may be known, but to say the any day's totals are based on the entirety of that specific day's results is wholly innaccurate.

My question is why is Monday low if it includes Friday's results, which is a normal testing weekday?

0 ( +1 / -1 )

My question is why is Monday low if it includes Friday's results, which is a normal testing weekday?

My answer was that nobody really knows exactly how many test results from any specific day are really getting reported. If you've been following the supposed case/test numbers, it jumps between a 3% and 10% positive rate (and one day earlier this month it was 35%!!)

Especially on a Monday, where some results were probably from Friday tests, but this assumes the lab work was done on Saturday or Sunday so that the results could be handed in before 9:00am this morning (which is unlikely since the lab techs were probably Go To-ing somewhere over their weekend days off).

1 ( +1 / -0 )

In Niigata, positive confirmations are reported the same day or within 24 hours, in most cases. As for the number of tests conducted in Tokyo on December 11, the official number currently stands at 8789.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

 (and one day earlier this month it was 35%!!)

Actually, it was 2 days this month at 35%... the past two Wednesdays where those results were supposedly based on tests done the previous Sundays (but on Tues and Thurs it was only 5 or 6%).

Again, obviously such a positive rate disparity is due to results that do not come from any single specific day of testing.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Perhaps a better way to see the positive rate is to look at the weekly average.

In Tokyo, for the past week (Dec 6-13) there were about 3500 positive cases, and for the suggested corresponding testing days (Dec 3-10) there were about 45,000 total tests.

Thats a positive rate of about 7.7%, which isn't very high, but way higher than other countries which have things under control (and double the 3 to 4% rate in Tokyo from a couple months ago).

But then again, Japan doesn't willy-nilly test everyone since they try to "target" most of their testing on symptomatic or exposed people (so its hard to compare to other countries), yet this also means lots and lots of asymptomatic or low symptom cases are floating around... unknown.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

there were about 45,000 total tests.

Thats a positive rate of about 7.7%

The big unknown here is what % of those 45k tests are from recurring VIPs, professional athletes, tarento, etc. It's almost guaranteed, knowing how elitist this society is, that it's a far number. And those, of course, would likely test negative week after week. So I think the real positive rate is around 9-10%.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

My question is why is Monday low if it includes Friday's results, which is a normal testing weekday?

Will you be capable of finding the answer yourself? lol (hints: neighboring days, average, different infection time...)

0 ( +0 / -0 )

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