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Tokyo unscathed as weakening typhoon heads north

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So nothing happened in Tokyo. That is great to wake up to but it's becoming like the Boy Who Cried Wolf. This is the second typhoon in a row they got wrong. They need to get their weather reports more accurate or people will stop listening to them. Hope that never happens but ......

-5 ( +5 / -10 )

I went out at about midnight to secure the bicycles and it was really just like a windy day on the south coast of England. It was good to wake up to normality though!

3 ( +3 / -0 )

The problem is that there's always a certain amount of storm movement that can't actually be predicted all that well - and the Japanese tendency to err on the side of caution, which has really increased since 3/11. As NHK news has as its brief a certain amount of civil defense activity, they virtually have no choice but to get hysterical.

A good counterpoint to the JMA and NHK is this site: www.tropicalstormrisk.com - which shows, among other things, when a typhoon has actually weakened to what the rest of the world considers a tropical storm.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

This is the second typhoon in a row they got wrong

The current unusual weather pattern makes prediction more difficult than usual; the normal rules barely apply. At least they got it wrong in the right direction; better than saying 'Oh don't worry, it's going to veer off to the east and all we'll get is a bit of rain' when what actually happens is that Tokyo gets flattened.

They need to get their weather reports more accurate or people will stop listening to them

Do not stop listening. Pay attention, go home early, batten down the hatches (and bicycles) and feel happy next morning when nothing dire happened.

Be thankful it wasn't another Typhoon Vera.

8 ( +8 / -0 )

They need to get their weather reports more accurate

Oh really. And how do you propose they do that? Maybe you can go down to the weather office and point out what they're doing wrong? Sounds like they could use your expertise in chaos theory, mathematics, and modelling

7 ( +7 / -0 )

Storm in a teacup. But better safe than sorry. The current pattern of warnings is better than hearing about all the deaths from the lack thereof.

4 ( +5 / -1 )

Yep! Lucky escape for Tokyo. If this storm had swung across the coast as predicted it could have been quite devastating to the greater Tokyo region. It was clear by around 6-7pm last night that the storm had slowed and changed direction. However, there was nothing in the news to tell people. Only those who knew which websites to check were in the know. This situation should be rectified.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

The current unusual weather pattern makes prediction more difficult than usual

Weather prediction does not depend on whether the weather is usual or not. A state of the atmosphere and its evolution through time can be mathematically and pretty much accurately solved within few days using good initial conditions. What makes a model prediction accurate (among many other parameters) is whether those initial conditions are correct, not if they are usual.

I am looking right now at the simulation data from the European ECMWF weather forecast model (known to be the best global forecast model) and it got the typhoon path and intensity right. It is clear from the data that the wind bursts were going to be localized offshore and only the sea side of Japan (east of Chiba) was going to get the stronger wind but not the strongest bursts. I will look at the Japan Meteorological agency meso-scale model results, but I would be surprised if it got things totally wrong. It seems to me that all the noise about the typhoon was more based on governmental and media frenzy than real science.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

A spot of rain...don't see the issue. Going to make a cup of tea now.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Typhoon No.14 is now approaching from the SW and may slam into Amami Oshima. At present the J met office is giving neither size nor intensity figures, but they say it is starting to build up.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

The JMA doesn’t have size and intensity for 14 because it will be a tropical storm its whole life, at least given current international forecasts. And 14 is named “Yagi” internationally - yes, goat in Japanese.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Much ado about nothing?

0 ( +0 / -0 )

sf2k, great come back. U.S. doesn't seem to have problems with weather reports. And they don't brag about paying for very expensive computer systems to better the reports. And they don't dramatize the reports.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

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