U.S. study sees China using 'coercive power' on Japan

China has a long way to go to challenge the region militarily.

China would probably try more actively to pressure Japan, but would also seek economic cooperation and attempt to avoid “excessive alarm” in Tokyo and Washington.

Which is exactly what they are doing at the moment. The Chinese are testing their ability to coerce and pressure Japan whilst keeping a close eye on their response, as well as that of the US.

The problem is that, although the country is advancing economically at a rapid rate, it is still a Socialist State, with heavy authoritarian control of it's people built by one of the most paranoid, delusional and murderous leader/parties in history. And because that is fairly recent history, and the economic rise so dramatic, there is a bizarre mixture of distorted national pride coupled with nationalist ambition that makes China unpredictable.

There is also seems to be a lack of what is 'reasonable', by way of response. One of the biggest problems I have with what is happening at the Senkakus at present is that it is not a reasonable response. The pro-Chinese posters here cite Ishihara as the reason China have responded the way they have, but a mature, circumspect diplomatic player would not have reacted that way. That's the problem.

China is not afraid of bullying it's smaller Asian neighbors. But it is afraid of starting a war with the United States.

Both countries goverment and militaries have little understanding of each other's intentions and recent tensions have made this worse. In the event of an accident, they would blame the other side. China would have to choose between continuing to escalate conflicts or face the political risk of appearing weak against Japan. Top leaders on both countries mistrust each other and their foreign ministers have been incapable of dialogue beyond reading official statements. China and Japan have stated that they do not want to take up arms against each other. Avoiding one, however, requires careful planning. Unfortunately, this is just the kind of diplomacy that both China and Japan are both neglecting.

How much money did this study cost "military intelligence" to conclude? What a waste of USA taxpayers' money, again. China has been pushing a little here and a little there by sending ships and aircraft into areas owned by Japan. The areas are not disputed areas. That is exactly the strategy that China want to use. Plant a little idea that the are is disputed, keep pushing the idea, then wait for the Useless Nations to try to resolve a problem that did exist in the first place. Japan needs to change its constitution NOW in order to protect itself against the bullying by all its neighbors OR just give in to the change.

China have used the "U.S. threat" or "Japan threat" to justify severe measures that preserve internal stability. The most dependable weapon available to an authoritarian regime like China is an external security threat that can unify the people and justify domestic political repression. For U.S. and Japan, better relations with China would support political reform and liberalization. This would reduce the repressive internal forces that legitimize authoritarian rule as a means of protecting the country against foreign military threats.

“The likeliest challenge instead stems from Beijing’s growing coercive power—increasing Chinese military capabilities could enable Beijing to influence or attempt to resolve disputes with Tokyo in its favor short of military attack.”

Yawn. China has already finesse her moves and will just park herself there, you name it, Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, Huangyan Island, Paracel Islands, what else is new? China is not going to take another inch of soil, so the nonsense about simulating China's attack on Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands is just a ploy to win votes in Japan and buttress the Pentagon budget.

All China ever want is for the other party to come to the table to negotiate, one to one instead of a group bargaining power vs China which she find so offensive.

China is just waiting for some country to make silly moves and give them a smack down. Negotiate 'under the gun' from China or just vent your frustration harmlessly in the park, nobody cares. What is so different from gunboat diplomacy from the old days? Military intimidation is always the name of the game isn't it? Except here China do it very politely by not showing the 'gun' to appear offensive. ADD to that China DO have valid claims to the disputed islands, so it is more than just military intimidation and I congratulate China for developing more advance dangerous offensive weapons SO THERE IS MORE CHANCE FOR PEACE. Less chance for the smaller guys to miscalculate!

The only reason it come to all of this New Status Quo is the genius of the incompetent diplomacy of Hillary Clinton. She thought she could outdo Bill (remember 1996, Bill sent 7th fleet to Taiwan Straits and China have no answer back then) , but time have changed and China is not available to be kicked around any more.

Enter Kerry/Hagel, a fine team to manage a tacit joint partnership with China to keep the peace in the China Seas. The other smaller countries if they don't want to negotiate, China can wait you out! America have no time nor resources for the nonsense from the smaller countries. China guarantee freedom of trade navigation and that is what America care most about.

@OssanAmericaMay. 04, 2013 - 08:06AM JST

China is not afraid of bullying it's smaller Asian neighbors. But it is afraid of starting a war with the United States.

China is a highly principled and far sighted country and don't waste time doing foolish talk.

China had no problem with invading Vietnamese islands killing a few dozen Vietnamese marines in the process. Japan and the rest of Asia should take note of Chinese aggressiveness.

All China ever want is for the other party to come to the table to negotiate, one to one instead of a group bargaining power vs China which she find so offensive.

China wants 1-1 negotiations for the same reason a boss wants 1-1 negotiations with their employees instead of the "offensive" union.

China is a highly principled and far sighted country and don't waste time doing foolish talk.

Don't know what this guy has been smoking but it must have been good!

China's "divide and conquer" strategy for negotions with her neighbors, pushing the envelope with illegal intrusions, inciting nationalism in the masses, foolish rhetoric, etc, etc.... The world should watch closely and asia should stand together to counter this bullying and coersion!

Kazuaki ShimazakiMay. 04, 2013 - 09:05AM JST

All China ever want is for the other party to come to the table to negotiate, one to one instead of a group bargaining power vs China which she find so offensive.

China wants 1-1 negotiations for the same reason a boss wants 1-1 negotiations with their employees instead of the "offensive" union.

Isn't a sovereign nation suppose to have backbone? If not, just be a colony of say US or Japan, that will give that country negotiation clout. Otherwise why be a country at all? I wouldn't want to be a citizen of a spineless country.

@mumumeMay. 04, 2013 - 09:13AM JST

China is a highly principled and far sighted country and don't waste time doing foolish talk.

China have superior attitudes. You don't find China initiating aggression in the disputed islands. China is far more concern with economic development than military adventurism. She was just forced to react to stupid moves by other countries who wrongfully think US is there to be used by them to help puff up their chest to scare China. For this reason you should give China a little more respect!

Tony EwMay. 04, 2013 - 08:46AM JST "@OssanAmericaMay. 04, 2013 - 08:06AM JST "China is not afraid of bullying it's smaller Asian neighbors. But it is afraid of starting a war with the United States."

China is a highly principled and far sighted country and don't waste time doing foolish talk.

So far I haven't seen China say anything that WASN'T foolish talk.

Imagine that. I guess when the Quadrilateral Dialogue (Australia, India, Japan, U?S?), the TPP, and SoF agreements with the Phillipines and Vietnam are all in place, the PRC willcry that they never did anything wrong.

What is so different from gunboat diplomacy from the old days?

Actually, it is no different. What changed is the zeitgeist of the world. Considering the power balance, China's actions would be considered quite quaint in the 19th century. But we are in the 21st.

China shouldn't be wishing for the old days, though. If we were in the old days, Japan and America would probably have smacked China down a few times already with their own gunboat diplomacy and punitive expeditions. In any case, what's past is past.

Isn't a sovereign nation suppose to have backbone? If not, just be a colony of say US or Japan, that will give that country negotiation clout. Otherwise why be a country at all? I wouldn't want to be a citizen of a spineless country.

People are also supposed to have backbones. Doesn't mean they can't recognize a power difference and join together. People have been banding together to handle stronger opponents since the cavemen.

TonyEww

China is a highly principled and far sighted country and don't waste time doing foolish talk.

LOL This is a joke, yes?

Tony Ew

China have superior attitudes. You don't find China initiating aggression in the disputed islands.

Ha ha ha! That's gold! Are you serious?!

Tony, you have said, and I quote;

Remember China did not inflame the dispute to cause her to take this New Stance, her Opening Chess Move so to speak until being forced to do so by the ingenuity of Noda/Ishihara.

Ishihara is not an official Japanese representative, at that time he was the Governor of Tokyo. His attempts to purchase the Islands were recognised as a potential problem by the government for several reasons. 1. He is a nutty nationalist with a personal agenda. 2. In light of this, China will likely react poorly. 3. Ownership by Tokyo creates potentially serious problems for the government if it ever were inclined to negotiate joint use of resources or some similar agreement.

So, they did the responsible thing by purchasing the islands off the Japanese owners to prevent this eventuality, and to prevent the islands from becoming a beacon of Nationalism by the nutty right wing idiots. China should have congratulated them for being so sensible.

But Unfortunately, China has lost the plot instead. Incursions into Japanese territory by War ships, endless military planes, radar locks, encouraging fisherman to head there to further antagonise, threats, warnings etc etc.

Japan have their coast guard there, which they are entitled to do seeing it is their territory. They have had to scramble fighters in response to Chinese incursions.

Your version of events is a fiction.

By the way, I'm still interested in you explaining why you think China has such a good claim to the Senkakus. You keep dodging that one.

More powerful countries bullying smaller and less powerful countries... WOW what a shock!!!

You meant to tell me in the history of human kind, more powerful countries didn't OFTEN bully the less powerful ones?

And you meant to tell me that EVERY SINGLE powerful country in the power had not tested the limit and boundaries of their perceived competitors?

People must've been living under a rock or something.

Since the US brought this up, hmm... let me see... A superpower bullying the lesser by using coercive tactics... I wonder how the states of the union was formed in the US. How exactly did US acquire Texas and Hawaii again? And what's up with all these military bases around the world?

Or take Japan for a second here, you meant to tell me if Japan has the power or opportunity to invade, incorporate or colonize a weaker country that it wouldn't be hesitant to do it?

Its only natural for China wanting to stick it to its former and current foes. And I'll bet that when Japan stuck it to the Chinese before, if they were getting raped and massacred, and if there is an internet forum for them to post, they would be whining just as well.

How about the Japanese look themselves in the mirror and say, hey, let's elect actually competent leaders and legislators to have Japan get back on its feet. How about let's set aside sensitive issues and work toward a common goal and take advantage of the world's biggest consumer market for the next 50 years and work together so the Japanese people can benefit from it. That would be productive. I will bet that if there isn't a Yasukuni Issue or a sale of disputed island issue, Japan and its people's economic and future outlook would be exponentially better than what you have now.

Kazuaki Shimazaki

People are also supposed to have backbones. Doesn't mean they can't recognize a power difference and join together. People have been banding together to handle stronger opponents since the cavemen.

Just say I am all for people of all nations banding together for the coming alien invasion. That is the only exception I will accept, otherwise for each country that want to band together call it for eg Taiwan, Colony of Japan, Philippines, Colony of US, Vietnam (nobody wants you!) We have to spell out each country's name in full with the Colony descriptions so the world know they are just a semi sovereign nation, not yet mature okay?

If they have already band together and form a NATO equiv, that is understandable since that is a military entity pre established vs say ASEAN which is a pure trading bloc. To band together now militarily against China is the height of stupidity and obscene practice of a small country trying to drag a stronger country into war with China.

China is incredibly smart with her 'coercive power' because she just show her shadow instead of showing up at a neigboring country's door rudely with loud 'fire crackers' to terrify them. If these countries are smart, they will see China as a Protector like in the old days where tributary countries pay homage to China and China never invade them. Think Cambodia, China is her protector against the aggressive Vietnamese.

Think Cambodia, China is her protector against the aggressive Vietnamese.

And supported and funded one of the worst examples of genocide in history. Be careful what you defend/praise, Tony.

Tony, when approximately is this, as you put it, "alien invasion" going to take place pray tell?

highball7, this is the 21st century. Democratic nations don't invade other democratic nations. This is one of, if not the most, appealing arguments for advancing democracy as much as possible throughout the world. Not only is China not in the game but is actively resisting joining.

@OssanAmericaMay. 04, 2013 - 09:41AM JST

Tony EwMay. 04, 2013 - 08:46AM JST "@OssanAmericaMay. 04, 2013 - 08:06AM JST "China is not afraid of bullying it's smaller Asian neighbors. But it is afraid of starting a war with the United States."

China is a highly principled and far sighted country and don't waste time doing foolish talk.

So far I haven't seen China say anything that WASN'T foolish talk.

According to the 'theory of relativity' China if you call her foolish is Less Foolish than Japan's double talk full of foolish talk. When Abe talk, I can see the Good Cop, Bad Cop fancy footwork. One day show goodwill, next day another admin official make some deliberate nasty moves to poison the atmosphere. Make sense?

China is just a plain old straight speaking talk, nothing coercive, benign power. People just make her up to be a monster ( good for the industrial military complex, good business! ) but no proof China is as bad as people think. Just a little neighborhood quarrel that's all and she NEVER settle by force unless angered to respond.

China is a highly principled and far sighted country and don't waste time doing foolish talk.

Certainly, it is. When it comes to limiting the civil rights and freedoms of its nationals and maintaining the power of the communist party by any means, it really is highly principled and does not waist time on foolish talk.

The problem is, however, that your statement does not hold true when China talks to the world.

Its only natural for China wanting to stick it to its former and current foes. And I'll bet that when Japan stuck it to the Chinese before, if they were getting raped and massacred, and if there is an internet forum for them to post, they would be whining just as well.

A desire is natural. Acting on it is obsolete.

How about the Japanese look themselves in the mirror and say, hey, let's elect actually competent leaders and legislators to have Japan get back on its feet. How about let's set aside sensitive issues and work toward a common goal and take advantage of the world's biggest consumer market for the next 50 years and work together so the Japanese people can benefit from it. That would be productive. I will bet that if there isn't a Yasukuni Issue or a sale of disputed island issue, Japan and its people's economic and future outlook would be exponentially better than what you have now.

They tried that Set Aside strategy, and are realizing too late that a Set Aside strategy when the other side is gaining power relative to you means that they will stop setting it aside when they exceed your power or at least get close enough, and you are much less capable of foreclosing the issue then.

I know the US was eager in the 70s to get China as a demi-ally to counter the Soviet Union, and that means the rest of the West must follow to a degree. But if Japan was smart, it'll have exploited Tianammen and the end of the Cold War to foreclose these issues rather than being about the first to forgive China.

According to the "theory of relativity" China if you call her Foolish is Less foolish than Japan's double talk full of foolish talk.

WOW! Talk about foolish and double talk! eeewwww! AND China is not coercive????????

This study didn't even have to be done to reach the conclusions reached but now that it has why is China probably the only country in the world that can, with a straight face, argue against it?

This is why I support a stronger Japan as it will counter China and stands of closer-to-equal footing with both China and USA, militarily. Japan should at the very least be strong enough to defend the nation, it's people and properties rather than having to rely on a foreign power like the USA, who sometimes have conflicting interests with Japan. Japan should assert itself more on the International stage without the stigma as a puppet of USA. And also to deter China, North Korea and other hostile state against Japan. Bully picks on weaker nations then themselves, while acknowledging strong nations, like how China is to several nations it have disputes with, like Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia and India. Best way to stop a bully is to stand up to it, and Japan is, with the backing of the USA, but Japan needs to assert it's own authority over it's own territories and be an example for the bullied nations.

Japan increasing it's Defensive capabilities, independant of USM will more of less curb China's aggressive policy since it will mean that China is not the only soverign military power in East Asia.

Japan SDF is technologically superior to the China PLA, but it won't last long if Japan SDF sits idly by while PLA is rapidly growing.

Tony Ew

Me dodging nothing. Just refresh yourself to read whatever I had posted. No need repeating as this will be flagged as Off Topic and wasteful of my precious time.

Rubbish. The Senkakus are why were are even having this discussion in the first place - it's even mentioned in the article. But this is, what, the 4th time you have tried to dodge the question?

I risk this being off topic, but briefly check wikipedia article about Pol Pot. He said the genocide was caused by his underlings whom he delegated and have no truthful input from them the AND those underlings are in fact Vietnamese agents embedded inside his party. Now you understand the dirty politics at play?

I've been to Cambodia, done lots of reading and research on the Khmer Rouge years as well as spoken to a number of Cambodians about it. Your powers of revisionism are impressive, but we who know better are watching. Here is an article - the first I happened to find;

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/KB21Ad01.html

Note, if you will, the nice little backhander about the irony of China constantly demanding Japan to accept responsibility for it's past deeds....

Tony W

China wants 1-1 negotiations for the same reason a boss wants 1-1 negotiations with their employees instead of the "offensive" union.

And that's exactly the problem: China sees itself as the boss and every other Asian nation as its employees.

Sorry, am I missing something here? How is paying the neighbourhood protection racket so much more enlightened than participating in alliances for mutual assistance?

We have to spell out each country's name in full with the Colony descriptions so the world know they are just a semi sovereign nation, not yet mature okay?

If these countries are smart, they will see China as a Protector like in the old days where tributary countries pay homage to China

Fortunately I think China is a bit more reasonable than wanting to be basically worshiped and paid off like a neighbourhood mobster protection racket.

I do not see any major conflict between China with US or even with Japan. The issue of Diaoyu Islands/Senkaku will eventually be resolved through mediation and negotiation. Judging from recent posturing of US and some of its strong Allies for one like Australia, its recent White Paper on Defense has greatly dilute the confrontation with China and now saying that both US and China could co-exist as major power in the Asian Region. Australia has been one of US strongest Ally and at time is a mouth piece of US in the Asian Region

I feel something is missing in the mentioned study ... an analysis of what is driving China's policy towards Japan. Consider what China has to lose or gain by "coercing" Japan. What have they lost so far: Japanese investment in China, good relations with second largest economy in Asia, opportunity to set a precedent as a leader in Asia committed to peaceful conflict negotiations. What have they gained so far: Nationalistic fervor, and a position they cannot back down from. (And yes, I believe Japan is mirroring these mistakes). I do not see China's policy being based on a well thought out long term plan. It seems it is driven by reaction to popular sentiment, based on a currency of national face in a zero sum game with Japan. The study concludes that low China growth will lead to a less-"coercive" China, and higher growth a more-"coercive" China. But lower growth leads to popular discontent and is a more conducive environment for Populism and Nationalism than higher growth. More specifically, economic malfunction leads to decline in power of civilian governments, and a rise in power of the military. So if Populism and Nationalism are driving the conflict with Japan, economic stagnation or downturn in China are more likely to lead to an increase in that conflict. Moreover the report predicts fairly continuous national behavior which no sudden shifts or chaos (e.g., war). That's nice but looking back in human history I am not sure that's a safe prediction. If China and Japan can find any way out of their current mess, then yes, maybe the report is correct to predict peace. Otherwise, I wouldn't bet on it.

China is a developing country and has made many progression and yes I know, I know there are many problems from pollution, corruption, disputes, copying and so forth but surely other countries have their own major issues as well from the past till the present. It's ridiculous to expect a standard formula to solve all the problems where each has their own unique environment and culture.

Take a look at China and North Korea, non democratic but the gap between them is evident. India and Unites States, both democratic but why such huge differences?

I hope readers would open up their perspective and deeply understand the problems in China as well how its development goes along with its environment. We all make mistakes, but the matter is how we confront them and improve ourselves.

If we keep on bashing one another on every China related topic in Japan Today we can only see China's growing power from the outside.

The 395-page report was written by nine experts led by Michael Swaine, a veteran US specialist on Chinese security. It faulted previous studies for looking only at military factors or making worst-case assumptions on China.

Now for this topic, I think such studies should be taken more cautiously as false judgement would lead to bad decision resulting bad results. I have mentioned this before that China is using soft power to handle this issue. China would respond every action with similar forces on the dispute, if it's patrol boats then it would counter with its own, if it's fighter jets then it would counter with its own as well.

China right now has that advantage while Japan is struggling with its economy. I feel acknowledging the existence of dispute, look towards cooperation is the best way as China's market still welcome Japan but if the day comes when China able to produce what they need by their own, Japan might lose one of their best market.

China is not hurry to expulsion the US military out of the pacific rim but waiting until the downfall of US and her defeated military that is already in a very dire conditions! China is not using 'Coercive' power to force Japan or any countries but convincing them their alliance with the US is not their interest! It might takes one or two decades for many countries in the western pacific to witness America's withdrawn from the region and the Chinese military to take over the post!

The Senkaku issue wasnt just a struggle of islands or seabed minerals...etc. But a fighting for China to project her influences over the pacific ocean by gaining maritime momentum and naval jurisdiction over the west pacific! Here they raise their anchors to begin their campaign , America's downfall is predicted!

All of these conspiracy theories sound plausible, but I am not convinced China wants to instigate a war with Japan, or with the U.S. Maybe cause a little agitation. After all, China hold a seat on the U.N. Security Council, as with Russia - two potential allies if a war were to breakout. All this is a political postering to see how far committed Japan and the United are to the region.

Tony EwMay. 04, 2013 - 12:37PM JST @OssanAmericaMay. 04, 2013 - 08:06AM JST "China is not afraid of bullying it's smaller Asian neighbors. But it is afraid of starting a war with the United States." China is a highly principled and far sighted country and don't waste time doing foolish talk. "So far I haven't seen China say anything that WASN'T foolish talk".

According to the 'theory of relativity' China if you call her foolish is Less Foolish than Japan's double talk full of foolish >talk. When Abe talk, I can see the Good Cop, Bad Cop fancy footwork. One day show goodwill, next day another >admin official make some deliberate nasty moves to poison the atmosphere. Make sense?

The theory of relativity has nothing to do with this article. So no, it makes no sense whatsoever.

China is just a plain old straight speaking talk, nothing coercive, benign power.People just make her up to be a >monster ( good for the industrial military complex, good business! ) but no proof China is as bad as people think. Just >a little neighborhood quarrel that's all and she NEVER settle by force unless angered to respond

China is biggest threat to the region and world peace the world has seen since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Your views of fantasy and denial do not change this fact.

I suggest to all of the contributors , to take a look at the recent across the border aggression from China against India. Any suggestions in the above comments that China is a principled , decent, farsighted nation is so far from the truth, it is self evident .

One has to wonder, if the Central Chinese government has full control or has consolidated their control over the People's Liberation Army. If they didn't , that could some way in explaining the Senkaku spat, the incursions in to Indian Territory( not sure if incursion is the correct term , as the Chinese have erected army tents and look like they are there to stay until Indian patience is tested)

I do not see China's policy being based on a well thought out long term plan. It seems it is driven by reaction to popular sentiment

So if Populism and Nationalism are driving the conflict with Japan, economic stagnation or downturn in China are more likely to lead to an increase in that conflict.

CraigHicks - Thoughtful post, but rather than popular sentiment driving China's policy it is actually the other way round, with the Chinese government driving public sentiment.

Economic stagnation and downturn is more likely to turn the people against the government itself rather than the population becoming more nationalist. This is what terrifies China's leaders.

Therefore China needs to keep sourcing raw materials to fuel its economic growth, hence its acquisition of a disputed island in the South China Sea, the rape of African resources (with little given in return) and incursions into the waters around the Senkakus - and who knows what China is hoping to gain by having one of its army's platoons crossing 10km into India recently (currently refusing to leave). With one-party rule there are very few peaceful options if you can't satisfy your people but wish to remain in power.

UrqinchinaMay. 04, 2013 - 08:39PM JST

I suggest to all of the contributors , to take a look at the recent across the border aggression from China against India. Any suggestions in the above comments that China is a principled , decent, farsighted nation is so far from the truth, it is self evident .

If you insist, I am ready for you! India first build bridges and roads into the disputed areas causing Chinese military to move some forces there to check on their aggressions. Can you explain otherwise?

http://ibnlive. in. com/news/no-let-up-in-tensions-at-the-indiachina-border-over-ladakh-incursion/387402-3-245.html

Excerpts: CNN-IBN has learnt that the Chinese are objecting to the infrastructure build-up in Ladakh, especially roads and bridges. They also want Indian patrolling to stop before they move out.

This topic is so bias and wrong at many levels.

Tony EwMay. 04, 2013 - 12:37PM JST According to the 'theory of relativity' China if you call her foolish is Less Foolish than Japan's double talk full of foolish >talk. When Abe talk, I can see the Good Cop, Bad Cop fancy footwork. One day show goodwill, next day another >admin official make some deliberate nasty moves to poison the atmosphere. Make sense?

No t makes no sense at all. Please clarify. And I am certain that the The of Relativity has no bearing on this.

China is just a plain old straight speaking talk, nothing coercive, benign power. People just make her up to be a >monster ( good for the industrial military complex, good business! ) but no proof China is as bad as people

China is coercive and far from benign according to all of it's Asian neighbors. This article wouldn't exist if it weren't.

Ossan,

Democratic nations do invade other democratic nations. Example #1. Russia invaded Georgia. Example #2. India vs. Pakistan Example #3. UK vs. Argentina All of the above stated leaders were elected democratically.

And your entire statement is based on "democratic". Well China is not a democratic nation so it doesn't apply into the equation. And they are not invading anyone but is disputing sovereign rights where other nations in the region are also disputing.

The topic of Diaoyu/Senkaku sovereignty is disputed by both China, Taiwan and Japan and each side is asserted rightful ownership. Its not just China.

The topic of Dokdo/Takeshima is disputed by S. Korea and Japan.

The topic of the Northern Islands is disputed by Russia and Japan.

Do you see the common denominator here? And when, where, what, how these disputes arise from? The common theme is they are arise from the time of Japan's defeat in WWII and there were ambiguity on how the boundaries were defined. Japan wins some and loses some which it should be thankful that it didn't ended up like Germany with a carved up and divided country because if not for the dropping of the atomic bombs that resulted in the swift surrender, Soviet Union would've landed in Hokkaido and Tohoku and took half of Japan.

The point is, all of Japan's disputes involved with all of its neighbors and were remnants from WWII. That should tell you something. None of your neighbors like you one bit. Your entire survival is based on your geographical location and your subjugation to the US. So when you have a dispute that violates your own interest but also violates the US's interest in the long run, guess which side US is going to stand for?

All these chest puffing from forum contributors, bloggers, Japanese news media, and Japanese politicians about how US is standing of Japan's side is so near-sighted and frankly wrong.

Since US rightfully/wrongfully gave administrative control of the disputed islands to Japan ONLY means administrative control. And administrative control DOES NOT EQUATE OWNERSHIP. It just means you are here to take care of this place FOR somebody. That somebody could be you OR someone else. IN none of US's proclamations had it stated that Japan had sovereignty over the disputed islands.

What does that mean? It means the US rejected the sale of the islands and demanded Status Quo. And if you look back to what China originally demanded from Japan was to cease the sale of the islands, not hand over the islands. That also means Status Quo. Its Japan that is solely the one changing the status quo.

How is that not clear to anyone that can read and comprehend?

Interesting analysis Craig and hatsoff. I think you are both right. The interplay between internal and external factors is complex and its hard to try to understand Chinas aims and motives when there is little information coming out beside the propaganda. Heres a few more thoughts. Global political positioning is probably one aim that requires higher economic growth and stronger military. Matching and peacefully/politically make the US a historical note in the eastern pacific is also a likely aim. China has gained the capability to start moving in to this scenario now and this agenda (to change and strengthen the new identity) will require much more resources and income, probably to the extent that we may risk too see another "soviet collapse", that is if China is pressured by other countries. The only way China can keep up or increase the economic momentum over time will be to try to start positioning itself as a superpower that is strong enough to dictate terms to other countries (controlling resources and business). Japan, as it is today, is simply in the way. I also think China needs Senkaku and Okinawa in order to gain full control of Taiwan and then the eastern pacific. South Korea is of course also on the agenda. If you have a really big gun in one hand and then offer some money with the other hand you may go a long way.

To the posters who kept on saying that China is using Japan as an outlet in order to divert attention of its own domestic problem. That is what you wish to see. I will bet that the local Chinese will still focus on how their daily lives are being affected by the economic downturn or corruptions in China. This isn't like the US wagging the dog mentality here.

The current social-political climate in China is that the populace is more educated and well off. They are more in tune with world politics as well as where China should stand. Often times, the CCP had to tone down the protests against Japan due to concerns of social unrest. The CCP is simply incorporating the social movement into their ultimate goal of National Unification - which contains the CORE elements of re-integrating Diaoyu, South China Sea, reclamation of South Tibet/Arunachal Pradesh, and Taiwan as defined as the unified sovereign state of China. Japan is in the way of three of those elements. Which makes Japan a natural enemy of China. That's why the arrow is always pointed at Japan and by the proxy of Japan, the US. The point is to keep so much pressure on Japan and US that either one will break. B/c China knows that Japan isn't like Israel where US will protect at all cost. There isn't enough Japanese or influential people of entities of Japan within US to dictate terms. The Jews however run a good portion of the congress and major sectors of US. When push comes to shove, Japan at best is a rook. Easy to sacrifice in order to protect US's national interest.

There is nothing foolish or empty about China's talk and projection. China is one of the few nations that BENEFITS against a change in regime and policies where it can make reasonable forecast and adhere to executing its plans (of course that also runs up corruptions and unfair prejudice but not to foreign affairs or sovereignty disputes). If China says something, I would pay attention to what it says b/c it rarely changes its stance.

China's plan on protecting its national core interest is well thought out and had been strategically planned for decades. Its only now that they have the national resources and power to enforce it. Pay particular attention to the word CORE, and what it includes. That's why US is so reluctant to cross that line because the retribution can set multiple countries back a few decades.

SO long as China's influence grows, the pressure against Japan and US will not stop. I predict that at some point in time in the future, either Japan come to the table and negotiate some economic benefits off the 3 elements and back off or Japan will lose them right out. This isn't the 20th century where Japan still had clouts in the region. Honestly speaking, most non-Chinese foreign companies that are in Japan these days aren't solely concentrated on Japan anymore, its incorporating Japan into the greater East Asia Region where the focus is China. You really shouldn't need someone to spell it out in your face to make you understand where you stand as the world turns. Abe knows it. That's why he's going hard so when that time comes, he'll have more chips to bargain with. He knows he can't save Sensaku for Japan. He's barely holding on to the perception that Japan's economy might recovery with this fake manipulation of the yen. How long can it last for you? That should be question that Japanese pay attention to.

Senkaku was never part of China so I don't know how Japan is supposed to "return" it to them.

@highball7

I second your opinion sir! People who make it a career to 'jerk' China around is going to get smacked down. At some point smaller countries should wake up and realise if they don't negotiate honestly with China, they are going to be giving a nice treat, like UK did to Spain. Know what that means? Holding on to Gibraltar, that Rock of all ages! Now what are those smaller countries going to do about it? China is going to wait you out. View it coercive or whatever, throw all the adjectives you want against China but China is not impressed with word play. Be nice to China or be left with nothing!

Tony

Isn't a sovereign nation suppose to have backbone? If not, just be a colony of say US or Japan, that will give that country negotiation clout. Otherwise why be a country at all? I wouldn't want to be a citizen of a spineless country.

They do have their spine and the brain. They do group together, not to let the big greedy gangster bully. They don't want to fall into China's "divide and conquer" trap. Isn't it the way of someone has a brain act? Only brainless people think otherwise.

Moral of story: Pick some guy your size! Otherwise, it is shameful thug to bully the weaker! Nothing to be proud of! And don't blame others for your bad behaviors.

I wouldn't want to be a citizen of a spineless country.

Sure. I'm very proud that I'm not a citizen of China! Because I consider it is a shame given what the Chinese do in the cow tongue.

Tony:

According to the 'theory of relativity' China if you call her foolish is Less Foolish than Japan's double talk full of foolish talk. I think Albert Einstein theory says: Everything is relative but China behavior is absolute bad and it is a constant.

straight speaking talk but dare not face the smaller at international court

nothing coercive but had to sort out to harassment at other nation's EEZ which thousands miles away

benign power but neighbors are preparing for the worst

People just make her up to be a monster how come everyone else being the bad guys :)

( good for the industrial military complex, good business! ) 1) It is a much better business to sell weapons to mad-military-spending and a technology-hungry China rather than selling to those poor guys. 2) China weapon selling to Africa gets even more money. Pot calling kettle black.

Tony:

According to the 'theory of relativity' China if you call her foolish is Less Foolish than Japan's double talk full of foolish talk.

I think Albert Einstein theory says: Everything is relative but China behavior is absolute bad and it is a constant.

straight speaking talk

but dare not face the smaller at international court

nothing coercive

but had to sort out to harassment at other nation's EEZ which thousands miles away

benign power

but neighbors are preparing for the worst

People just make her up to be a monster

how come everyone else became the bad guys, except China :)

( good for the industrial military complex, good business! )

1) It is a much better business to sell weapons to mad-military-spending and a technology-hungry China rather than selling to those poor guys.

2) China weapon selling to Africa gets even more money because those "technocrats" are not under any constrain. Pot calling kettle black.

3) That's a good reference to Russia because it is selling weapons to both China and its neighbors.

Tony:

If these countries are smart, they will see China as a Protector like in the old days where tributary countries pay homage to China and China never invade them.

This phrase alone portraits China's face accurately. Yeah, neighbors can live "peacefully" under "civilized" Chinese Han's colony like Tibetans do now. It seems that the more Chinese mouth pieces talk, the more they get angry. The task to defend the lord China by words is really difficult one given its increasingly misbehave in this regions :)

Think Cambodia, China is her protector against the aggressive Vietnamese.

Correction: Khmer Rouge did get good protection from its master China after it killed its own 2 millions people and hundred Vietnamese at the border. It will be strange if Vietnam did not invade Cambodia after that. Think North Korea instead! This is off topic anyway.