Experts warn Japan's coronavirus fight in critical phase

It’s a fight they are losing badly.

Why didnt Japan build large dedicated and temporary hospitals, like the UK, China and other countries? Maybe because they were distracted by the Olympics? Instead, they've spent the last year and a half crying about a "shortage of hospital beds" while doing nearly nothing about it.

"...said the Tokyo Paralympics ...should be held without spectators..."

But not cancelled? OK, so the Covid crisis isn't actually a priority.

The situation now is clearly much worse than when they decided no spectators for the Olympics. Why haven’t they already announced no spectators for the Paralympics? Things aren’t going to magically clear up in the next two weeks.

In other news, after spending a ton of money on the sports day, the Japanese government are going to spend another ton of money on space food technology research.

Seriousiy? Priorities are all wrong. Forget a makeshift hospital for Covid cases, extra beds and machines for hospitals, extra nurses and doctors…..SPACE FOOD!!

Even with Japan's comparatively lows infection numbers, it's medical system cannot cope with even a 1 percent hospitalization rate - thats why thousands of people are suffering at home. In the almost 2 years since the pandemic began, what has Japan done to improve this situation - absolutely nothing! Have they built new hospitals? - no, passed legislation to force more private hospitals to accept patients? - no. Do they even have a plan to improve the situation? - no. They are totally incompetent.

the number of elderly people testing positive for the coronavirus has been rising recently despite most of them having been vaccinated

This is my concern.

The question is, how sick does these vaccinated people get?

Just mild symptoms or hospitalized?

If they got seriously sick and must be hospitalized and even you can spread the Virus in the same way like an unvaccinated person, because the viral amount is the same, doen't that mean that the vaccine is losing all its sense?

And doesn't that mean, that what all the scientists, experts and medical specialists told us, that the vaccine is the only way to get out of the pandemice, is complete nonsense?

I think we have to see what the next weeks and months will bring, if more and more people took the vaccine, if it is really the way out of the pandemic.

As more as I hear and read that more and more vaccinated people get infected and sick, the more I am thinking why did I take my two shots and struggeled with the side effects？

But like I said, the answer will come within the next weeks and months.

If they got seriously sick and must be hospitalized and even you can spread the Virus in the same way like an unvaccinated person, because the viral amount is the same, doen't that mean that the vaccine is losing all its sense?

Not really, it only means you apparently can only think on absolutes, which makes no sense.

If the vaccine has a failure rate of 5% for prevention of serious complications and death it would still be extremely beneficial, but if the number of patients increase 100 times (as in explosive spreading seen in other countries) that would still mean the huge number of patients would swamp the available medical systems.

You also need to read more carefully what you read, can you provide a reference where experts call vaccines the "only way to get out"? because the thing that is repeated constantly is that vaccination is just a part of the measures necessary to control the risks from the pandemic, never as a single thing that can defeat the disease by itself.

In this modern age of high computer tech, robotics, space travel….and…?

”Not enough hospital beds” ( for a year and a half)

Is this not sounding like a comedy show?

Experts: "The corona situation is reaching a critical juncture"

Government: "No it isn't, everything is wonderful. Vote for us"

If 85-90% of hospitalized patients due to V and 95% of severely ill patients due to V were among the 63% fully vaccinated with Y and Z, wouldn't that strongly suggest, if not empirically prove, vaccines Y and Z are not only useless but make one more susceptible to the V?

Vaccines against COVID in general? definitely not, because huge amounts of data from a billion vaccinated people all over the world clearly contradicts this conclusion, it would be at much a case where the vaccine being used in that specific place.

Still, the most likely scenario would be disinformation that completely misrepresent the percentage of people hospitalized and with severe disease from people trying to deceive others, just like recently happened with Israel, except it was not really effective because the governments data debunked that false claim.

The strain of the coronavirus pandemic on the health care system in Tokyo and other Japanese urban areas is reaching a critical phase, experts warned at a government meeting Wednesday, as the highly contagious Delta variant continued to drive the rise in the country's daily infections to a fresh record.

Pure alarmism and fear-mongering. The LDP, IOC and their supporters have told us holding an international sporting event last week was much more important and we could contain the virus by widening the scope of our go-to "close drinking establishments by 8 (or 7:30 now?). Vaccination can carry on at the usual snail's pace with no modifications.

By late August, nearly half of 400 beds secured for COVID-19 patients suffering severe symptoms would be taken up, Nishiura warned.

This moron is in charge??!

Did he not realize that they eclipsed that half-way point yesterday?

Here's the NHK article explaining that they just hit 50.3% severe bed capacity.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20210811/k10013195521000.html

The question is, how sick does these vaccinated people get?

Just mild symptoms or hospitalized?

The question is why dont you do some basic research on this question yourself, rather than writing a long post on here.

Plenty of stats and research on this as topic on the internet.

I see no issues here. PCR tests will increase dramatically at the Olympic venues for the para Olympics and thousands of medical workers will be removed from the public medical facilities and be on duty for the para Olympics. What could possibly go wrong? Oh yes, beds will be held for them too in case they need them.

There are plenty of hospital beds available, it's just that the government has done little to get others on board and assist them with procuring the necessary equipment to take care of patients!

""the number of elderly people testing positive for the coronavirus has been rising recently despite most of them having been vaccinated, suggesting the country's vaccination program "is reaching its limit" in slowing the pandemic"".

This is Bad NEWS not just for the elderly, but even the young are dying while vaccinated, people have to understand that this virus could bring and end to the life style we once enjoyed . I still see many people not following the rules, and even refusing to get vaccinated. SAD and IGNORANT.

Just total mismanagement, and utter abduction of responsibilities by the government. All the other bodge up aside (vaccine roll out etc), with all the time and warnings they had how can we be in this situation that people are already unable to get a hospital bed?

Almost certainly the worst organised response to covid of any developed country in the world. At very least the worst in Asia, that's without question as the numbers are far worse than any other rich Asian country here.

I just don't understand why there isn't more rage and anger from the Japanese demanding more from the politicians here. It's bizarre. Apparently shoganai has no limit. It's makes me crazy.

The whole experience, coupled with the initial treatment of how foreign residents were shown to be z-class citizens (we were unable to leave or return last year) has just basically destroyed my love for Japan and it's really sad. I just feel really angry and frustrated about it all.

Oh wait...we're back on Covid now? Guess now that the Olympics is over the GOJ can turn its laser focus back to the pandemic.

Let me reiterate. In this hypothetical scenario if the data (63% fully vaccinated with Y and Z, 85%~90% of hospitalized due to V being among the 63%,.95% of severely ill people with V among the 63%) were correct, wouldn't that strongly suggest if not empirically demonstrate vaccines Y and Z are not only useless but make one more susceptible to V?

If your hypothetical case is about a vaccine not used anywhere else in the world, and the data has been validated epidemiologically (as in checked that there is no other demographic difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated people for example) and (the most important thing) the number of hospitalizations did not change, then yes it would indicate so.

Without these very important caveats it would still be much more likely the data is faked or treated improperly.

For example, what if the 63% vaccinated includes 100% of the group of people hospitalized before (over 70, with multiple comorbidities) and the 37% not vaccinated are only people on their prime without any identified health problem? Before vaccination you got a 1000 hospitalizations a week from which 1 would be from the low risk group, but after vaccination now you got only 10 cases a week, of which 9.5 (in average) are from the high risk population. Vaccines would be hugely effective in this case (99% reduction of the hospitalizations and decrease of the percentage from the high risk group from 99.9% to 95%), but the data could be misrepresented by showing only the comparison between vaccinated and unvaccinated people without the necessary context.

As you can see the devil is in the details, it is very easy to put forward an hypothetical case where vaccines are extremely effective but can be presented as the opposite.

The hundred 300-bed hospitals could have been built. The article the other day about what the 15 trillion dollar Olympics could have bought is really becoming poignant, isn't it.

@Mark "elderly people testing positive for the coronavirus has been rising recently despite most of them having been vaccinated. This is Bad NEWS not just for the elderly, but even the young are dying while vaccinated".

This kinda makes the case for the doubters NOT to get vaccinated don't you think? I'm no anti-vaxxer nor am I suggesting that we should hide the truth about the vaccine's limitations but politicians and the media could do a better job of promoting the benefits of getting jabbed.

"the number of elderly people testing positive for the coronavirus has been rising recently despite most of them having been vaccinated" means that the vaccine is not as effective as purported(against this variant) .

And on the other side of the coin:

Discharged

Total 906,303

Daily: +10,611

As of 10 August

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

I wonder why the articles never mention the rate/number of those who have recovered?

Not really, it only means you apparently can only think on absolutes, which makes no sense.

If the vaccine has a failure rate of 5% for prevention of serious complications and death it would still be extremely beneficial, but if the number of patients increase 100 times (as in explosive spreading seen in other countries) that would still mean the huge number of patients would swamp the available medical systems.

You also need to read more carefully what you read, can you provide a reference where experts call vaccines the "only way to get out"? because the thing that is repeated constantly is that vaccination is just a part of the measures necessary to control the risks from the pandemic, never as a single thing that can defeat the disease by itself.

Firstly you should not be condescending towards a very well written and logical post by @Monty who, in my opinion, asked some very relevant questions based on exactly what I can see happening and have read.

You response had no links to back up what you are say with the numbers you are quoting and regardless of wether you could or not your reply was complete and utter drivel.

 see. So depending on various factors such as age and general health, it may mean vaccines Y and Z are somewhere between useless and outright malicious insofar as protecting people from virus V?

I clearly proved the opposite, depending on many factors vaccines it can be extremely effective, more than any other vaccine ever developed but mispresented as the contrary by only presenting a tiny fraction of the data, this contradicts completely your invalid conclusion, that nobody with even a hint of common sense would ever reach. So, how can you explain that a reduction of 99% of the hospitalizations make a vaccine useless?

Also, your link is precisely the piece of disinformation that has been debunked by the government official data, that I mentioned how come you choose to use it even when knowing it is false? do you consider deceiving others a valid way to "defend" your point? That would be evidence of failure, but not from the vaccines.

https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-644288348135

"the number of elderly people testing positive for the coronavirus has been rising recently despite most of them having been vaccinated" means that the vaccine is not as effective as purported(against this variant)

Since the efficacy of the vaccine is primarily intended for the prevention of the hospitalizations and deaths this is not a valid conclusion either, with a large number of unvaccinated people not taking care of preventing contagions an elevation of the number of positive cases can be a reflection of this even if the vaccine was as effective with delta as with the other variants.

You response had no links to back up what you are say with the numbers you are quoting and regardless of wether you could or not your reply was complete and utter drivel.

Do you understand the meaning of hypothetical? why do you think the sentences begin with "if". The point is to show how the conclusion is not valid since it was easy to come up with a scenario where vaccines are extremely effective with the total number of cases still increasing.

A few points.

2-) Any and all vaccines are dependent on the recipient's natural immune system. If their immune system is not at it's best then the response to the vaccine will not be optimal and possibly not last as long as others.

This is tends to apply far more to the elderly than those in their 20s~40s.

So for those over 50 is will and has been expected from the start a booster would be more than likely.

2-) most experts have say all along that the covid vaccine would be more like the yearly influenza vaccine than like Polio mumps, etc...the tend to produce life long protection. So nothing new or surprising.

3-) This is a new disease and new vaccine so like nearly all vaccines the first lager scale rollout is how then realise what the actual effectiveness and what needs to be adjusted ( the original Polio vaccine later had to be changed as did the original measles vaccine to improve their effectiveness) so nothing new or surprising.

Despite my suggestion of a virus extinguishing lockdown, you all preferred to ‘live with the virus’. So just do that and don’t always cry about critical phases or vaccine breakthroughs and all that. Enjoy your wrong decisions in silence!

Now here are a few problems going on in Japan related to numbers.

Japan says most elderly are vaccinated but their percentage don't really fit the numbers.

47% of Japanese have received at least one dose.

35% are fully vaccinated.

106 million doses have been administered.

Nearly 50 million of those to mostly non elderly employees of large corporations under a special program and that translates to nearly 25 million or 19% of the population fully vaccinated.

Lest put the corporate at 15% to give a margin of error for possible family over 65.

So at 35% fully vaccinated 15% are none elderly from corporations and universities, that leaves 20% fully vaccinated by the government.

Japan's elderly population is 28%

So if everyone of the 20% of the population vaccinated by public program are elderly then the numbers make sense but we know that it not possible as many places have long started vaccinating under 65 .

So I wonder what are the age breakdown is reality.

And now that the very quick and efficient corporate vaccine programs are administering their final few doses completing 50 million in far faster time than any government program.

How will this affect or slow down the public system.

Remember nearly half of all Vaccinations were administered by this 50 million dose corporate vaccination.

@Mark

""the number of elderly people testing positive for the coronavirus has been rising recently despite most of them having been vaccinated, suggesting the country's vaccination program "is reaching its limit" in slowing the pandemic"".

This is Bad NEWS not just for the elderly, but even the young are dying while vaccinated, people have to understand that this virus could bring and end to the life style we once enjoyed . I still see many people not following the rules, and even refusing to get vaccinated. SAD and IGNORANT.

This attitude of calling people who do not want to be vaccinated IGNORANT is becoming increasingly annoying and simply schoolyard name calling and rather shows how ignorant the person is who is saying as it does in a schoolyard. There was no proper long term human clinical trials on the long term effects of any of these vaccine types. In fact the ones done were tiny and very brief. There is overwhelming speculation and emerging evidence that there could be very serious autoimmune side effects from some very clever doctors who have been willing to risk their careers in speaking about their concerns to inform people. I have many links to publications which outline the facts and emerging trends of side affects which are being seen and documented post vaccination. This vaccination rollout across the world IS the human trial. The companies who developed them have been given blanket cover and immunity from prosecution by the government’s that ordered them in order to get the vaccines out as quickly as possible and billions were paid up front in order for those companies to get them online and mass produce them. What could go wrong with that scenario???

I have been vaccinated for everything a child could be vaccinated for and so are both my children so I am no anti vaxer by any stretch of the imagination. The difference is was that those vaccines have all been produced over the last century with a proven technique known to be safe in humans all of which had years if not decades of testing before becoming main stream and who’s track record of exterminating some very nasty diseases successfully is common knowledge. Just type mRNA into you google browser (using VPN with a uk based server) and the top 3 stories are government probes into the safety of the vaccine. Ignorant? Are you perhaps looking in the mirror? Think before simply labelling people who do not follow your way of thinking or reasoning.

The manager of one of the public health centers in Tokyo told the health ministry panel that the number of elderly people testing positive for the coronavirus has been rising recently despite most of them having been vaccinated, suggesting the country's vaccination program "is reaching its limit" in slowing the pandemic.

Japan tests only symptomatic cases so this means the Pfizer vaccine for them at least didn't work.

memoryfix:

Is this not sounding like a comedy show?

Unfortunately more like a dark comedy. This describes this situation perfectly:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkJmoIOr8QU

So depressing ! Now what ?

I wonder if this will be the never ending pandemic. Booster shots will be needed. Maybe every year. The news will report new numbers for the rest of our lives. i hope i am wrong.

The manager of one of the public health centers in Tokyo told the health ministry panel that the number of elderly people testing positive for the coronavirus has been rising recently despite most of them having been vaccinated, suggesting the country's vaccination program "is reaching its limit" in slowing the pandemic.

Being vaccinated doesn't mean you can't get coronavirus again, it just means that your immune system has learned how to fight it. So, it's normal for someone who is vaccinated to be able to get the virus, spread the virus to others while the immune system is ramping up its response, and have flu symptoms as a result.

That's why wearing a mask is still necessary even if you've been vaccinated.

The real benefit for being vaccinated is that when you are exposed to the coronavirus, you won't get as sick and you'll recover a lot faster.

There was no proper long term human clinical trials on the long term effects of any of these vaccine types.

That is no argument, mainly because there is no need for a long term effect trial to be able to say the vaccines decrease the risk compared with the COVID infection, but also because this artificial requirement (that the scientific community in general consider superfluous) would be unethical, letting a lot of people die or have long lasting problems just because of the small chance of vaccines producing some problem in the far future.

The technology from the vaccines has been used for much longer than the COVID have been infecting humans, this (and the ever increasing list of problems by the infection) makes it clear the risk is higher for COVID than the vaccines.

There is overwhelming speculation and emerging evidence that there could be very serious autoimmune side effects from some very clever doctors who have been willing to risk their careers in speaking about their concerns to inform people

The risk from their careers comes directly from not supporting their theories with any evidence, just speculations, and from not discussing the evidence that prove them wrong. In the scientific field that is enough to qualify a person as a terrible scientist, thus criticizing them for this is perfectly valid and desirable.

The companies who developed them have been given blanket cover and immunity from prosecution by the government’s

Still completely false, companies can be prosecuted for a wide variety of reasons.

Anybody can say they are not anti-vaccines, the problem is using false and misleading arguments to exaggerate the risk from vaccines and minimize the risk from COVID, as long as you use those arguments your position is not valid and should be clearly stated so.

Virusrex

It would have helped the situation greatly if it was not the scientists that created the virus as seems increasingly likely. The effectiveness of the vaccines and the ability of them to prevent transmission seems to be less than claimed. Many governments including from my home country Britain were claiming that the vaccines would be the end of Covid. People would be free by the summer.

The British government also pressured their scientists to state that Covid was more dangerous than it is to get public support for the first lockdown. Nothing is black and white, none of this is transparent.

Dont believe the hype, don’t believe anyone until you see the results of their actions

0.001% of vaccinated individuals contract SARSCoV-2 and require treatment. In fact, the vaccines: Pfizer and Moderna are 95% effective in preventing infection - and are equally effective against the variants. Vaccines offer high protection against severe illness with Covid-19, including infections caused by variants of concern. The shots also reduce the risk of infection.

Statements that claim immunization via inoculation is not effective or the primary means for addressing SARSCoV-2, directly contradict reality & proven science and are advancing a false premise.

Japan has the highest number of hospital beds per capita in the world.

Vaccination, masks, social distancing, disinfecting are the key means for reducing the instances of covid-19.

Holding the Olympics and now Paralympics during a pandemic is completely adverse to preventing the spread of SARSCov-2. Its variants will be introduced by outside sources (such as an individual entering Japan from Peru, to cite an exact case). The only profit is and was to the IOC, as has been stated ad nauseum. Locking down the borders is key. Without Chinese tourists or Japanese engaging in foreign travel, there would be no covid-19 in Japan.

As for the variants - the strategy of the virus is limited to the number of variants. Changes in the virus that make it better at avoiding vaccines could end up compromising its ability to transmit in an absolute sense. The Beta variant - which has a mutation called E484K that helps evade the immune system but hasn't managed to take off - is an example of this. However, the Delta does have mutations that both help it spread and partially dodge immunity.

One thing that is often claimed, but attracts scientific scorn, is that the virus must get milder in order to spread more easily. There is very little evolutionary pressure on the virus for that to happen. The virus is already off into the next person long before it kills the person it infected. And the people who do the most spreading (younger people) are those who don't get very ill. The optimal strategy for coronavirus is still hard to predict. Different viruses use different techniques to keep on infecting. Measles is explosive, but leaves behind lifelong immunity so it always has to find someone new. Influenza has a much lower R0, barely above 1, but constantly mutates to side-step immunity.

Viruses mutate all the time and most changes are inconsequential. Some even harm the virus. But others can make the disease more infectious or threatening - and these mutations tend to dominate.

Not sure why Japan now cares about the virus since the Olympics was first and foremost. Amazing that Japan cares about the citizens post Olympics.

There is no excuse for the government not fully preparing for this after a year and a half.

Whether it be a more efficient vaccine rollout or preparing specialist units to have on standby for surges due to new variants (we are on the 4th one now), no one can claim this is something new.

By late August, nearly half of 400 beds secured for COVID-19 patients suffering severe symptoms would be taken up, Nishiura warned.

Do you think that Japan should have constructed temporary hospitals like all other countries did about a year ago?

Don't quite understand. Last year when we were at about 80,000 active cases, the J-Gov was announcing that Japan was having major problems with hospital beds and not enough doctors and nurses. Now with 146,000+ active cases and an increase of critical cases they now state "Experts warn Japan's coronavirus fight in critical phase"? Emphases of the word WARN.

Also, last year when the active cases was heading past 40,000, everyone panicked, stayed home, when to online working, communicating etc. Now at 146,000+ everyone is living their lives like everything is going great. (first hand info by see Dangozaka S.A. fully packed with cars and the Fuji area full of people, restaurants back to waiting lists, and the Chuo expressway jammed with cars.)

So was last year? Just scaremongering or is it this year?

The hundred 300-bed hospitals could have been built.

Oops, I just noticed. The article actually stated that THREE hundred 300-bed hospitals could have been built.

Albert

People have realized the virus is less deadly than claimed at first. There were scare stories of people dying in the streets in China then saying life as we know it will ever be the same again. As we see in Japan it hasn’t happened yet a small group still carry on with this doom and gloom theory, it’s tiresome.

@Sven Asai: I'm sorry to break the news to you, but your 'virus extinguishing' lockdown would not have worked as has been proved elsewhere (and still not working in Sydney) We 'will' be living with the virus but not in silence.

What kind of infectious disease experts do we have in the country ? numbers are quoted in the article and never any mention of the word "Testing", Looks like the alarm is being sounded to the general public rather than officials responsible in enacting policy and resources to fight the virus. Sorry experts I don't think any of you understand the extend of the community spread of this virus. I am not an expert but I know that a high positivity rate means testing is inadequate and needs to be ramped up and that has never happened.

The experts as well have been very guilty of burying their heads in the sand and being happy with the low numbers from the low number of tests. What happened to genome testing of the virus , what are the percentages of the various variants ?, nobody knows and no effort being made to know, I am afraid, It is damn too late now, all due to the cumulative effect of doing nothing from the onset and waiting or relying on vaccines to curb the spread of the virus which from recent knowledge the vaccines are not capable of doing. More than 18months into the pandemic and one of the richest and densely populated cities in the world is still unable to carry out 20K tests a day, for a pop of 126M, the highest number of tests has never reached 175K, There is something fundamentally wrong with the approach taken against the virus. If testing was taken seriously we would have been in a far better position as regards containment of the virus. The foreign athletes and officials were tested daily so as to prevent them spreading the virus to the local population meaning the authorities understand the importance of Testing which beggars the question why testing is not and has never been expanded to the general population ? that is a question none but the experts and authorities can answer.

You need maybe a bucket to quench a fire immediately it starts and if you wait until it spreads the entire building, even firetrucks might not be of any help. There is no time or need to be comparing cases between countries, It isn't a contest. Boasting while the head is buried deep is nothing but self deceit. Better to know you truely have 10K cases and control the cases than to claim you have 1K and allow the remaining 9K to spread the virus unknowingly. Hundreds of Pre-school and elementary school kids are being infected everyday probably by their parents yet there is no alarm, they won't turn to serious cases or die but who knows the long term aftereffects on their yet to be strong systems ? It would be naive to think that only the obese, elderly or those with underlying illnesses can become serious cases or die. Feel free to downvote all you want.

I'm waiting to see how the protestors that stood outside stadiums a few weeks ago fearing the Olympic "Super Spreader Event" are responding to the announcement that Fuji Rock is going ahead with fans.

I've been expecting to see them outside the organizers headquarters with their placards, but so far not heard of anything....

LeoToday  09:46 am JST

I wonder if this will be the never ending pandemic. Booster shots will be needed. Maybe every year. The news will report new numbers for the rest of our lives. i hope i am wrong.

Well yes and no.

It gets a little complicated but the shy isn't falling nor is "everything all Better" not is covid not a danger or over or whatever the denier crowd and anti vaxxers would like us to believe.

This doctor puts things clearly in perspective:

The Likely Future of COVID-19? More Than Polio, Less Than Flu

Don't let the tittle mislead it is not what it seems.

It is just a clear explanation of what most experts expect the future of covid to be like once we pass the major parts we are now going through.

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/946609

Get vaccinated, folks! Winter is coming!

jansob1Today  10:50 am JST

If you listen to what this doctor explains you will see that this will not be never ending.

We will see clusters from time to time and yes vaccine or boosters will be needed at that time but as vaccines improve they will become less frequent and only when clusters happen and eventually masks will not be needed outside the situation were a cluster is fairly large.

Not unlike how the Japanese wear masks during flu season and get seasonal flu vaccine.

Listen to his easy to understand explanation.

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/946609

By late August, nearly half of 400 beds secured for COVID-19 patients suffering severe symptoms would be taken up, Nishiura warned.

The key word here is secured. As in already secured. Japan has plenty of more beds, they just have to use them. Japan will always be close to capacity because they never spend the money to grab things in bulk, always adding little by little instead.

Why didnt Japan build large dedicated and temporary hospitals, like the UK, China and other countries? Maybe because they were distracted by the Olympics?

The olympics was never a distraction, there has never been any effort to mitigate the virus from the beginning and there will never be. The system is not setup to fully fight this virus and the measures taken will be half-hearted at best. Unfortunately, everybody is happy with the low numbers rather than facing and tackling the reality. This will be never-ending as it is evident that the vaccinated can still spread the virus. Presently, there is no contact tracing and the situation is out of hand. A friends son works part time in a Macdo and one of the staff tested positive and a few days later a 2 more staff members tested positive and what did they do ?, they closed for 2 days to disinfect the place, the remaining more than 50 staffs were never tested and continuing working and serving the public, this is what is happening all over the country.

It would have helped the situation greatly if it was not the scientists that created the virus as seems increasingly likely. 

Only if by "increasingly likely" you mean "not likely at all" because that is still the opinion of the scientific community in general, that thinks the natural introduction that continuously happen is by a very wide margin the most likely reason of the pandemic.

UK Government scientists have said the virus shows signs of being man made.

How about a reference for this, because no evidence of such thing have ever been presented, for all we know what you call "government scientists" are no experts at all, are saying something completely different, or have already been demonstrated as wrong since last year.

The effectiveness of the vaccines and the ability of them to prevent transmission seems to be less than claimed.

By antivaxxers that love to exaggerate what the experts actually said? sure, but that has no importance, new variants have been always something the experts are warning about because they could escape the immunity, pretending not to listen to them is not a real argument.

If you have to choose between the experts that have been mostly right in everything about the pandemic, and conspiracy believers that have been continuously wrong about almost everything there is no need for things to be "black and white" to see which side is much more likely to be correct.

What kind of infectious disease experts do we have in the country ?

If the experts are saying one thing but the government do the opposite it is not justified to criticize the experts, they do not make the decisions, nor are in charge of organizing the response, government politicians and officials are.

Experts at a meeting of the health ministry's pandemic response panel said the situation in Tokyo, currently under a fourth state of emergency, could deteriorate despite progress in getting people vaccinated.

Translation: The jab is not the answer.

BTW, what experts? Do they have names, credentials?

Are people meant to listen to so-called "experts"

whose names and creds are not put on the line?

The manager of one of the public health centers in Tokyo told the health ministry panel that the number of elderly people testing positive for the coronavirus has been rising recently despite most of them having been vaccinated, suggesting the country's vaccination program "is reaching its limit" in slowing the pandemic.

Again, who is this manager, credentials?

This info will make it easier for the sleeping sheep to accept more elderly "covid related deaths", factored in, wether it's covid, or not.

Which shell is the nut under?

If the experts are saying one thing but the government do the opposite it is not justified to criticize the experts, they do not make the decisions, nor are in charge of organizing the response, government politicians and officials are.

I have seen many experts appear on TV and praise the low numbers and Japan's approach. whereas, hose that were critical never appeared again. Surprised that you yourself don't find the low testing a concern.

Stay Home or Go to Eat or Go to Travel?

Which is it?

TheJapanese people are tired of the mixed messages and wearing masks for two years plus!

All my acquaintances are on the road in Japan now and NOT staying home.

Is it really surprising?

So in other words, because the Olympics are over, Japan is no longer “hiding” the problems of COVID, and now the REAL situation is being told?

Yeah, we all knew this from last year. They are now just admitting it.

Since the Olympics fiasco is almost a memory, you gonna step up or not, Japanese “Leaders?”

Again, who is this manager, credentials?

It doesn't really matter . It doesn't. You don't need any credentials all you need is access to data and finished primary school to make the conclusion. It is more and more evident that the Delta variant has managed to escape the vaccines to a degree that is enough to flood the hospitals in Japan.

I think Japan should shift focus on hospitalization scalability. Hopefully soon and on time we will have access to a Delta patched version of the vaccines and give this another go.

Holding the Olympics and now Paralympics during a pandemic is completely adverse to preventing the spread of SARSCov-2. Its variants will be introduced by outside sources (such as an individual entering Japan from Peru, to cite an exact case). The only profit is and was to the IOC, as has been stated ad nauseum. Locking down the borders is key. Without Chinese tourists or Japanese engaging in foreign travel, there would be no covid-19 in Japan.

Data from the just concluded olympics states otherwise, measures taken inadvertedly prevented the athletes from being infected by the public rather than the intended purpose of preventing the athletes from infecting the public. How does the virus that is already in the country magically disappear just by closing the borders to intl travel ?

For Those Seeking Vaccination Sites in Japan,

https://v-sys.mhlw.go.jp/search/

Find an inoculation venue| Corona Vaccine Navi | Ministry of Health, (mhlw.go.jp)

The key word here is secured. As in already secured. Japan has plenty of more beds, they just have to use them. Japan will always be close to capacity because they never spend the money to grab things in bulk, always adding little by little instead.

No Japan hasn't plenty of beds appropriate for handling infectious diseases like covid-19. Besides, most of the beds you are probably thinking of are just normal beds in private hospitals and the gov't hasn't the powers to force private hospitals to convert beds to covid-19 use. It is not like a covid patient can just be driven to a hospital and put on any vacant bed, there are alot of regulations and criteria that need to be fulfilled before a hospital is cleared to handle infectious disease patients. True that extreme situations call for extreme measures but we all know the manual is strictly followed here and will take a whole lot of studies and meetings to deviate from the manual. You will be seriously reprimanded using your discretion doing the right thing by going against the manual.

Don't quite understand. Last year when we were at about 80,000 active cases, the J-Gov was announcing that Japan was having major problems with hospital beds and not enough doctors and nurses. Now with 146,000+ active cases and an increase of critical cases they now state "Experts warn Japan's coronavirus fight in critical phase"? Emphases of the word WARN.

Also, last year when the active cases was heading past 40,000, everyone panicked, stayed home, when to online working, communicating etc. Now at 146,000+ everyone is living their lives like everything is going great. (first hand info by see Dangozaka S.A. fully packed with cars and the Fuji area full of people, restaurants back to waiting lists, and the Chuo expressway jammed with cars.)

So was last year? Just scaremongering or is it this year?

Deaths are down despite overall cases being up, and critical cases supposedly being up (hard to tell the criteria for that). Pretty much expected since most elderly are vaccinated.

but your 'virus extinguishing' lockdown would not have worked as has been proved elsewhere (and still not working in Sydney)

@theResident You may not know, but that all aren’t lockdowns, deserving the description lockdown. In other words, what I mean hasn’t even been tried out once. So no one can judge it beforehand. It’s quite becoming time to do it, isn’t it? Worst case scenario, it would be proving me wrong too, like all other measures so far in sum.

Deaths are down despite overall cases being up, and critical cases supposedly being up (hard to tell the criteria for that). Pretty much expected since most elderly are vaccinated.

The question is will deaths remain down?

Severe cases are at a high now.

We know Tokyo uses a far more restrictive method of recognising severe cases and only uses those on assisted breathing.

We know that mortality rates of those receiving assisted mechanical breathing are between 26% and 40% depending on the type of mechanism being used ( intubation vs non intubated)

So by that simple fact we have a sad but real probability that we are going to see an increase in deaths in the very near future.

I hope the stats are wrong but up to now this has been the way, severe cases go up deaths go up not long after.

If on one side you have scientist and experts with detailed data saying one thing, while in the opposite side you have people that repeatedly bring false information that is easily debunked saying you should not trust the science because "bad things" will happen, I think is very clear which of those sides it is fine to ignore.

I'm equally intrigued by the motivation of the "opposite side" you refer to.

Do they want attention?

Do they see themselves as independent, free thinkers, who won't be held down by the man?

Do they actually want to see people suffer as a result of their disinformation?

Are they just bored and trolling?

Still, I'm closer to the "man is fundamentally bad" argument than the "man is fundamentally good" one (although I actually favour "man is fundamentally incredibly stupid"), so the presence of these people does not particularly surprise me.

You keep extolling the virtues of providing evidence and links for what they are talking about but you do not supply any of your own as proof of the argument you are countering with. 

When the argument is that the experts are not sharing whatever mistaken opinion is being expressed here precisely the lack of any reference is the proof the criticism is true. It also applies if you are the one saying you have references and I tell you there is no such thing. So, you never produced any references that you said you could bring, that can still be used to say you are mistaken.

To be more clear, my whole point is that if people come and pretend to say things that can be proved true they need to bring that proof, sometimes the evidence is false, other times is completely misunderstood, but most of the time there is no evidence at all.

0.000016% of the population has died from or with corona.

Pretending the alarm is about the current situation, as if this would be the worst that could happen is not going to work, the importance of the cases and deaths is that they point out to a lack of control, which could end up causing a huge lot more of unnecessary complications and death, and for which the experts are warning very seriously. Your personal opinion that they are wrong hold no weight in comparison.

And 80% of users on this forum fear for their lives.

Emotional and peevish. I don’t see this.

My take is I want to get back to normal. The government will not allow this to happen until we see factors such as a larger percentage of vaccinated people. You can bleat and whine about wearing masks and vaccinations, but anti-vaxxers are doing their bit to hold us all back. This is the real world.

Stop being part of the problem.

Pretending the alarm is about the current situation, as if this would be the worst that could happen

Well, yes, I was calculating with a population of 120M. The actual population is 126M. So the percentage would be 0.000015%

You are holding yourself back. The government has not and can not force you to live in a certain way.

Really? Have you taken many flights abroad recently?

That’s a large part of living my life normally. That’s actually the biggest reason I want to return to normal life.

Really? Have you taken many flights abroad recently

No. My last flight abroad is already a decade ago. But you can't blame the J government for it. Blame the fascist governments in other countries who don't allow you to visit.

the number of elderly people testing positive for the coronavirus has been rising recently despite most of them having been vaccinated

The number of covid positive people isn't the relevant number if we're drawing inferences concerning the vaccine. For that, we would need to know what percentage of people dying/in hospital are fully vaccinated.

From what I've read, the people who die or go to hospital are almost exclusively unvaccinated. Vaccines seem very effective in keeping people alive and out of hospital.

No. My last flight abroad is already a decade ago. But you can't blame the J government for it. 

Who do I blame for quarantines when entering Japan? The country I just left?

You haven’t thought this through, have you?

Why aren’t the 60k daily tests being used now? It’s a good question.

Not enough medical staff, simple way to explain the difficulties of Japan.

No thousands of Vietnamese or Philippina women to help.

Anyway, it takes years to get trained.

Japan's demography situation will for decades make it difficult (read impossible) to ensure a level of treatment at the one of best developed countries.

So the government just let nature follow its course, fiddling with numbers and asking cooperation for patients to stay at home.

All this was/is predictable.

And Japan has the particularity to foresee in a very limited future scale, developing only step by step and never with 50-100 years plan.

JeffLee

Why didnt Japan build large dedicated and temporary hospitals, like the UK, China and other countries?

Do you have an example of the "large dedicated and temporary hospitals" in the UK and other countries? The ones in China have been shown to be a hoax by the CCP run state media.

It is not easy to build and staff a large hospital, let alone a "temporary" one.

In the event, as per Tokyo government, 3600 people are hospitalized, with 5900 bed available. So yes, the system is under strain but it is not like people are waiting in hallways.

Meanwhile, the daily deaths with Corona been: Aug 3: 1, Aug 4: 0 (zero), Aug 5: 2, Aug 6: 2, Aug 7: 0 (zero), Aug 8: 1, Aug 9: 1.

In a metropolis of 20 Million people.

@Monthy

You did good by being vaccinated as a member of society. Thank you.

I understand the news can be disheartening. You should not forget to look at the bigger picture.

If the news that vaccinated people can carry as much virus as unvaccinated people is bad. It is not as bad as one can think and potentially even within expectation. From the start we know the vaccine will not be 100% efficient for 100% of the people so we need to think with group. To make things simple :

If 100 vaccinated people get the virus and produce 50 unities of virus but in the other hand 100 unvacinated people get the virus and produce 100 unities ; it is overall better to get vaccinated even thought, I agree, it will suck for the vaccinated one producing as much virus as an unvaccinated one when they hoped to not be a risk for other.

Same goes for severity of illness :

If we were to put a value on illness gravity from 0 to 6 and compare a group of vaccinated and a group of unvaccinated end up with a result which show the total is significantly lower for the vaccinated moreover in the level 6 (death), it is overall better to get vaccinated even thought, I agree, it will suck for the vaccinated one which will die.

Unfortunately, our current level of knowledge do not allow us to pinpoint the unfortunate one, neither to know how to best match people and vaccine. We do with the knowledge we have as individual and member of a group since we are a group.

Flute

Unfortunately, our current level of knowledge do not allow us to pinpoint the unfortunate one, neither to know how to best match people and vaccine.

That is true, yet suddenly so many commentators here are sudden virus experts. In the event, never has an infection with such a low death rate been used as a cover for such vast restrictions of human rights and expansion of government powers as this one. In CCP China that is par for the course, but to see that in Western countries is just sad.

Fight in critical phase

Man, this entire damn thing has been one huge critical phase.

So the government just let nature follow its course, fiddling with numbers and asking cooperation for patients to stay at home.

That is probably to be expected in a business environment where 'just in time practices' play such a big role.

Japan, Inc. does not seem to be able to shift out of 1its 970's /bubble years mentality. If it works for cars, it must work for sick people, too.

A just-in-time (JIT) inventory system is a management strategy that has a company receive goods as close as possible to when they are actually needed. So, if a car assembly plant needs to install airbags, it does not keep a stock of airbags on its shelves, but receives them as those cars come onto the assembly line.

@Antiquesaving

Nearly 50 million of those to mostly non elderly employees of large corporations under a special program and that translates to nearly 25 million or 19% of the population fully vaccinated.

i think you get your math wrong as you started from a wrong base.

50millions is not the number of doses given to corporations and universities, it is the number of Moderna doses bought by Japan. These are not only used by private sector but also by the government at least in the mass vaccination center : the JSDF ones, Osaka prefectoral one, ... and these 50millions are most likely not yet being receive as the order is for delivery by the end of September.

https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14389467

I have no idea of the current amount private sector actually got as of now neither will got in the end, so I can not help you fix your math.

Japan's PM Suga prioritizes Olympics than domestic healthcare, spends about 7000 medical workers to Olympics, and caused present critical phase. 

Number of virus tests at Tokyo was less than half of athletes village.

If you're still on the hunt for a place to get vaccinated, this *might*** **help:

https://www.findadoc.jp/

If you're still on the hunt for a place to get vaccinated, this *might*** **help:

The wait lists on those places are so long, I've been on there for 2 months for multiple clinics and never received a call from any clinic.

50millions is not the number of doses given to corporations and universities, it is the number of Moderna doses bought by Japan. 

Exactly, Japanese national government have been hoarding the vaccine doses instead of distributing them so that the market can be preserved for domestic vaccines next year. Despite rise in cases, appointment slots through non-wait-list and official routes remain impossible for residents without being employed in a politically-connected company.

It would a miracle for normal residents to get an vaccine appointment before Q1 or Q2 of 2022.

COVID19 Vaccination program are still slow and we don't know what to do?