Experts warn of health care collapse in Japan if virus keeps spreading

Two per household... remember... yesterday was April 1st... and they weren’t joking.

This: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/opinion/coronavirus-viral-dose.html

So in small doses. I think try and project the elderly and unwell, and then the rest of us, let's just carry on as per usual, but wear a mask, wash hands and social distance as much as much as we can, in the knowledge of we get it, it will be in a small enough dose to not

It's the only option we have.

If? IF?!?

Nobody in the government owns a tv or watches CNN? NYC, Italy, Iran? You really think it won’t happen here?

It’s here now. We need to shut down NOW.

This is what basic governmental incompetence looks like.

Use the Olympic stadium as a emergency hospital. Start a panel to organize what to do w h e n the numbers grow exponentially.

Why are these ‘experts’ so out of touch with reality and where were they and what were they doing a few months ago?

Oh yes, it wasn’t possible to be an ‘expert’ during the pre-Olympics-cancellation period....

Why would the regular hospitals be at breach point now?

If you had several months of seeing people dropping dead around the world, why have you have made no solid plan for an outbreak?

Isn’t that the role of a central government?

There should be already extra beds with ventilators and staff ready in case. This should be ongoing.

We are arguably one of the three richest nations on earth! I see empty building all over Osaka.

Business as usual mentality during a time of crisis. And all this time abe and his govt has done what to prepare? Nothing, because all focus was on the olympics. Convert the olympic village dorms into isolation and treatment wards, lease out hotels near hospitals and do the same. have JSDF engineers do what the Army Corps of Engineers did in NYC and convert the rooms....like now. Ramp up production of ventilators, masks, gowns, and get the JSDF medics prepared to assist. Every other country has bought abe time and he's blowing it.

Don't we all realize that Abe has little true concern for the ordinary Japanese.If he had there would be a comprehensive plan to help the many in Japan that have been damaged already!

Meanwhile, as of April 1st, Tokyo is testing at a rate 226 test per million people...

According to the Tokyo Metropolitan Government website, only 146 people were tested in Tokyo on March 31st, which sadly is better than the meager 41 that were tested on March 30th.

Tokyo ranks 98th out of 109 countries and regions in terms of its testing rate. Only slightly worse than Japan which ranks 95th, just behind 94th place Kazakhstan.

https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing

More than 600 of those have recovered.

A big rise from 400 something a few days ago. A hopeful number...

Beefing up the local healthcare system is the most urgent. Call in medical retirees or reserves. Protect first and foremost healthcare staff. Outsource assignments in non-vital areas.

@Kobe White Bar Owner

Use the Olympic stadium as a emergency hospital. Start a panel to organize what to do w h e n the numbers grow exponentially.

The Athletes' Village must have sufficient spaces accommodating people with mild symptoms for quarantine. Facilities are new and clean, with entry/exit access well-controlled.

Each country does what it does, The j gov is choosing to do things their way based on scientific advice, so let them get on with it.

Until companies promise to pay employees all or a significant proportion of their normal salaries during an enforced lock down, nobody will stop working. I can't afford to suddenly not receive a pay check. I'd be sick AND homeless.

Too little too late.

Unlike some individuals that seem to get their jollies in Japan's misfortunes, no decent person such as myself will do that.

However the government has screwed this up royally. It's not like Japanese are the only ones ignoring stay at home conventions, but the way crowded Japanese cities like Tokyo are set up, the infrastructure and day to day activities, there's no room for error. Total lockdown is needed.

I think this is scare mongering to try and finally get people to take this virus seriously. If they tell people the health system is on the verge of collapse maybe they will stay home and self isolate. But I can't believe it for a second. Unless, there are a lot more cases that have only been admitted as patients having regular pneumonia and are being treated in fact for Corona virus. That would not surprise me in the least.

dbsaiyaToday 07:14 am JST

Business as usual mentality during a time of crisis.

There's a very interesting explanation given for the government's sclerotic response to the crisis given by a business consultant on this short video:

https://twitter.com/ShingetsuNews/status/1245324945715916801

Simply put, many of the large companies that comprise Keidanren are dinosaurs totally unequipped to deal with modern technology and modern business practice, for various reasons. They literally cannot function without staff in offices. Keidanren have obviously been leaning on Abe not to insist on a lockdown or a mass move to teleworking etc, because they know many of their members are going to be royally dipped in deep doo-dah when it happens.

What amazes me is that no opinion leader or scientist in this has gone on public record with warnings that contradict the pablum that the government has been serving. (Or at least nothing that has gained traction in the media.) Surely some Japanese must understand what the country is in for. People were angered when Li Wenliang, that poor Chinese doctor who died in Wuhan, was intimidated by the authorities after trying to raise the alarm. It would seem the Japanese characteristic of tsutsushimi, not wanting to be the center of attention for fear of appearing as eccentric, is having a similar effect.

In London the army converted a conference center into a 4,000 bed hospital in 10 days. Others in more city's.

Zichi, also London turned down 800 ventilators from the EU, so one step forward, one step back.

A Japanese government panel of experts on Wednesday warned of a health care system collapse

It is not at all reassuring that an article which begins with this sentence does not later contain an explanation of all the robust countermeasures the government is taking to prevent this.

That is because the only government response is:

the government plans to unveil detailed guidelines on the reopening of schools across the country.

In other words, their response is to issue guidelines about how they are reversing their earlier response.

Are we really getting screwed over this badly by the government? I really hope there is more, a lot more, being done but I just am not seeing any evidence of that. Which is scary.

Ramp up the testing, it is the only way to give you some idea how widely spread the virus is. Quarantine those with no or mild symptoms in facilities or hotels (self quarantine just is not good enough cause people breaks rules and do not tell me it is hard to find empty hotels now) save the hospital beds for the serious cases. Promote social distancing etc.

Are we really getting screwed over this badly by the government? I really hope there is more, a lot more, being done but I just am not seeing any evidence of that. Which is scary.

THe LDP and Health Ministry have begun pressuring those in the media who criticize:

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/28/national/media-national/winning-media-battle-covid-19/

And in the Guardian it was reported that 2000 NHS staff (London) have Covid19, so just going to the hospital may kill you.

Come on your response time is lagging Coronavirus got u or something?

They need to be reporting on drugs and trial progress results. Once it goes to ARDS, its all but certain death. Some real nasty stuff here. Couple that with Japanese with black lungs due to chain smoking, and the old folks homes, not a good thing at all.

TheRat

...London turned down 800 ventilators from the EU..."

It didn't "turn down" anything. The UK didn't participate in an EU scheme to purchase ventilators. Instead, it ordered 10,000 ventilators from UK company Dyson.

I saw the Nightendale hospital in London on TV and it is magnificent, with aisles a kilometer long. Even laid off airline workers were apparently hired to build it.

Don’t go out on the weekends or at night. But please get on the crowded trains and report to work as usual during the weekdays.

The Japanese government care more about economic health than the health of its citizens.

And the sad part is, most Japanese go along with that cause they are all programmed from birth, “がんばれ！！！”

Pathetic.

Whether it was their intent or not, we're headed towards Boris Johnson's herd immunity.

If I have to read comments from the economy minister about the proper steps to combating a global pandemic one more time. The government's panel of experts, the opposition, Tokyo and Osaka's own conservative governors all agree that we should shut down. But Japan's oligarchs are whispering in Abe's ear, so we can't have that.

Abe and Aso should be dragged out of the diet and put on crowded trains at rush hour for a week. Pampered swine.

So Abe lied.

Didn't take much to collapse the health care system in the worlds 3rd largest economy. Might want to revise 3rd to 13th. Can't look after the people taxed to pay for it, might want to revise prioritys.

It didn't "turn down" anything. The UK didn't participate in an EU scheme to purchase ventilators. Instead, it ordered 10,000 ventilators from UK company Dyson.

The Guardian: "Last week Downing Street claimed that it failed to take part in an EU scheme to source life-saving ventilators and other kit to treat coronavirus because it accidentally missed the deadline. No 10 initially said it did not take part because the UK was no longer a member of the EU and was “making our own efforts”. After critics accused Boris Johnson of putting “Brexit over breathing”, Downing Street clarified that missing out was an error and it would consider participating in future. It is understood the UK claimed not to have received an email from the EU asking it to participate."

Another day of half measures.

It's pretty clear the Government won't lock down, the plan seems to be 'herd immunity' with the steps to request people stay home at evenings and weekends, and closure of facilities aimed at slowing the spread of the virus a little not containing it.

The headline says it all. This is the reason why the government is hesitant about calling for a lockdown and intense testing, of the numbers should rise, you’ll have panic and if you have panic, you’ll have unrest and you’ll lose the control of order, something Japan deeply worries about in a country where social order and conformity is a must. But having said that, prolonging the severity of this virus and not leveling with the public can have catastrophic consequences.

Yeah; Japan should strive for this level of perfect universal testing:

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/us/2020/04/01/new-york-nurse-works-while-infected-newday-cohen-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/coronavirus/

If the Japanese government weren't so concerned about the Olympics, they could have gotten ahead of the virus and implemented a plan to control the spread. Instead, the whole country will suffer.

Don’t go out on the weekends or at night. But please get on the crowded trains and report to work as usual during the weekdays. 

The Japanese government care more about economic health than the health of its citizens. 

And the sad part is, most Japanese go along with that cause they are all programmed from birth, “がんばれ！！！”

Pathetic.

Yup, can’t argue with that. Hit the nail right on the head.

bo

Each country does what it does, The j gov is choosing to do things their way based on scientific advice, so let them get on with it.

Except when the scientists are saying the opposite... which is the case here in Japan.

The Japanese government care more about economic health than the health of its citizens.

And the sad part is, most Japanese go along with that cause they are all programmed from birth, “がんばれ！！！”

Pathetic.

Funny that you mentioned this. My wife was saying the corporations in Japan basically dictate to the Japanese government what they can or cannot do. So basically Abe must "obey" them, since he doesn't want the economy to go down the drain any more than it has.

Experts? Is it still April fools?

The menacing corona icebergs were sighted months ago, yet Cap'n Abe, refusing to change course, sailed his ship, Japan Inc. Maru, blithely on . Even now at the 11th hour, Abe has still not given the order to turn the ship of state around to avoid a disastrous collision. He foolishly believes he is showing leadership by re-arranging the deck chairs while the people eye the lifeboats. Yesterday, he signaled his determination in the Diet by wearing a mask. Today, can we expect to see him in a hazmat suit?

Yesterday 266　new cases

42 recovered

0 died

Japan seems to be doing a good job

Why would this surprise anyone?

Plenty of times ambulances drive people around for hours not being able to find a hospital to take them.

You think they can handle hundreds if thousands of Corona patients?

if this doesn’t overwhelm the system a big earthquake will.

But even today, there will be plenty of people waiting for a “lucky day” to leave hospital and the average stay in hospital is too long anyway.

They could easily discharge 10% of hospital patients tomorrow. Probably 30%

Just imagine how it’s spreading in Kabukicho and areas that specialize in intimate contact?

This is a no-brainer, which means it’s right up the LDP’s “alley” so to speak. Shut it down. Shut it down now.

Yesterday 266　new cases

42 recovered

0 died 

Japan seems to be doing a good job

Start random testing and start doing mandatory autopsies until this virus is over and I’ll guarantee you those numbers will be a lot higher, A LOT HIGHER.

Just accept it and try to cope with it. No health care is able of curing more than a very tiny part of its nation population. That is the way is simply is and that is the nature of an an epidemic disease. There is no much to talk about it or to prepare. You could just try to keep numbers down a bit...

I’m on the train now and on the other side is a guy with a hacking cough-he is also recycling his phlegm!

All I can say is that I am glad he is wearing a mask....

Exactly, therefore we will never really know the actual number count, so to boast that the numbers are low is insidiously false and deceptive.

The medical panel also said Japan was on the same trajectory as Europe and the UK. They said we would experience the same number of deaths. (NHK9:00pm) This comment as been all but ignored. Japan are burying their head in the sand. 500 beds for a city of 13,000,000 is not enough. Get building new hospitals now.

Fellow readers, I don't about you but I don't trust the so called Japanese government panel of experts. If the GOJ not to pick on the Environmental Minister who is not even an environmentalist nor his area of professional expertise, then what does this say about these experts, book smarts carry you so far but it is the real boots on the ground field that gives you the knowledge and skillsets one needs at this time. Some may not like this post but it is fact. How many times did the so called experts say the NK was not nuclear nor close, well guess they were proven wrong. Recently the US experts provided the current administration with incorrect information. No I say count your sources on the ground who know best.

If things are on the verge of collapsing then surely they’ve got to close the universities rather than let them start the first semester in the next couple of weeks.

Thousands of students are going to be moving all over the country and then spending 6-8 hours a day in groups of 30-40 in a confined space.

It puts everyone who works in the schools at a significant risk along with their families.

Every university will be like a huge pile of tinder with someone flicking an old lighter next to it.

7 died in Hokkaido yesterday! What are you talking about.

My Japanese company director still thinks Japan is doing a great job at handling the virus. He says that foreigners don’t follow order and have no self discipline that’s why we see so many cases.

It is great to see the ignorance of Japanese. If postponement of Olympics and death of Shimura Ken don't wake the Japanese up, I don't know what will.

Autopsies need the the permission of the family which is usually refused.

Regarding autopsies in Japan, in 2014, Professor Ikegaya of Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine wrote in the respected journal Nature:

"Autopsies in Japan are performed on only 1.6% of all deaths, the lowest rate among developed countries. Cause of death is almost always determined by simple visual inspection, as it was 100 years ago."

https://www.nature.com/articles/507306e

Furtermore, in a 2011 Japan Today Kuchikomi article:

"Why can’t more bodies be autopsied? It boils down basically to a question of manpower. Experts are few and thinly scattered across the country. As of now, nationwide, only 170 are fully qualified to perform autopsies, and more than half of those are professors of forensic medicine for whom doing autopsies is a sideline. Some prefectures have only one qualified medical investigator."

https://japantoday.com/category/features/kuchikomi/japans-autopsy-rate-woefully-low

No testing: no verified COVID-19 cases

No autopsies: no verified COVID-19 deaths

No data: no problem

@MarkX

But I can't believe it for a second. 

Perhaps you don't know enough about this virus, or how health systems work. Health systems have limited resources so are generally only equipped for the usual, regular diseases which are well understood and fairly consistent. There isn't usually a need for much capacity beyond that. Except when you get an epidemic. The big problem with this virus is the large number of serious complications that require hospitalization and ventilators. Also, people who require ventilation or an ICU bed will be in there for 3 weeks or longer. That's why health systems can feel the strain even with relatively low numbers. Japan has had ample warning to prepare for this, but have they prepared? Nope.

Japan Anon, now is surely not a time to put in your notice, but at the earliest opportunity I'd be looking to change jobs. And quote that guy in your notice.

April 1st CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report: Presymptomatic Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 — Singapore, January 23–March 16, 2020

Investigation of all 243 cases of COVID-19 reported in Singapore during January 23–March 16 identified seven clusters of cases in which presymptomatic transmission is the most likely explanation for the occurrence of secondary cases.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6914e1.htm

What is the government doing other than fiddling while the country burns?

Ok so I’m a PR in Japan. I am told my favorite Aunt died 2 days ago because of this virus. She had no bedside visitors allowed and will have no mourners.

this is the 21st century - how is it possible for educated people to be so stupid Abe San ?

80000 cases in NY in one month. When some action Japan?

My Japanese company director still thinks Japan is doing a great job at handling the virus. He says that foreigners don’t follow order and have no self discipline that’s why we see so many cases.

Yes but watch them swoop up any new drug like there is no tomorrow that shows results developed in the UK or US, then claim they invented it.

Why open the schools now when the situation so much more worse than last month?

”Why open the schools now when the situation so much more worse than last month?”

Because of pure ignorance and stupidity.

My boss returned from England (actually fled because he realised that he may not make it back) and came to work after 7 days of quarantine.

The staff complained but all we got was abuse and bullying.

Where were the experts in February or March? When they could have taken precautions to stop it before it started,

Oh they were at the Tokyo 2020 or should it be called he Corona 2020 ignorance Olympic party with the rest of the government.

Prepardness and precautions save lives let that be the lesson of Corona 2020. Never forget

"A Japanese government panel of experts"

It's long been known by a few in Japan than experts actually means "Galah"

"A Japanese government panel of galahs" and it is easy to understand the decision making in Japan.

(the Australian slang for galah is perfect)

This nation is heading for some serious hurt, since they haven't learned from other nations and Abe is so concerned with making money for his vested interests that he won't lock down the big cities. And don't you love how the "financial assistance" for households in Japan ACTUALLY became TWO masks (which won't even last one mask wearer here even one, in all likelihood)? And I love how the "hospitals are on the verge of collapse" but I'm not even sure where you should go if you need testing because there aren't many places, and fewer still that house the infected.

And I thought they had decided to delay the reopening of schools. But silly me, I should have known better than to think a Japanese politician would have decided anything before spending weeks on panels.

My Japanese company director still thinks Japan is doing a great job at handling the virus. He says that foreigners don’t follow order and have no self discipline that’s why we see so many cases. 

It is great to see the ignorance of Japanese. If postponement of Olympics and death of Shimura Ken don't wake the Japanese up, I don't know what will.

Well. don’t worry, the government is handing out face masks. And free, so we should all be OK because the facemask will prevent further infections.

Yeah, seems logical in this country. So we’re all safe after all. Keep everything open, get all the schools ready, because face masks will stop at all.

Professor Christopher Murray, director of The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington: Every day that you have unchecked transmission (i.e. no stay at home order) in the community you are going to get a percentage increase, 10, 15 percent, depending on the area. Every day you wait you can multiply those numbers out.

What are the politicos doing other than providing us with vapid advice from B-list talentos like Tokyo Girls Collection? Pathetic.

Govt is inept it is so glaringly obvious, take our taxes and health care payments and take us for granted as well as take us for fools.

They will not provide the level of health care we all expect and have contributed to, personally i have been paying 72,000per month for years into their health system from my salary, so if I get sick I am gonna be kicking in the damn door demanding the care I have been paying for, you can bet on that.

All these politicians need to be held accountable for the decisions.

April 1st CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report: presymptomatic transmission is the most likely explanation for the occurrence of secondary cases.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6914e1.htm

Maintaining Air traffic ? WTF! (sorry) has that got to do with containing this Virus ? Abe clearly is not focused - maybe that's an early stage indication of infection ?

My friend is a nurse in a large London teaching hospital. She told me it's hell. She can't go home as her partner is a high risk person and has been self isolating now for two weeks and for god knows how much longer. Her life is working 13 hour shifts and sleeping in a hotel room. She is exhausted, stressed and unwell. Half the staff at the hospital are off sick. Patients who are sick with other things are not getting proper care, everything has been turned over to Covid19 patients.

This is coming Japan. Get ready. The masks won't save you.

Interestingly, the lack of government testing and the recent death of Ken Shimura are breeding fear in the Japanese population.

They are being told not to enjoy the cherry blossoms yet at the same time find themselves on crowded trains and buses unable to separate themselves from their (in many cases) obviously sick fellow passengers.

A few more high profile deaths without aptly directed government action will lead to some very aberrant behavior.

U mean Japanese health care system is not ready when we have been given so much time ahead ???.

This is a total mess.

One company is sending us cloth masks to be worn when working...cloth is not recommended by WHO, and medical masks need to be replaced regularly to be of help.

People are busily crafting cloth masks.

Another company requests we wear masks, but take them off during meetings as some clients don't like them.

Hahahaha!

The lack of leadership from the Government is the cause of all this. People are trying to do the right thing, but are just floundering without strong leadership to guide them.

Under what's likely a 2-3 month shutdown in Canada.

Ironically, my first intended visit to Japan was delayed due to the 2009 swine flu pandemic. When Canada recorded our first H1N1 case, my school's exchange program with Osaka Electro Communication University started changing. Homestay families quit, as is their right. NHK was showing pictures of downtown eastside Vancouver (which is kind of dodgy at the best of times) and suddenly that was Canada.

OECU got a hotel for us. All was good until Japan got their first case - an exchange student visiting Oakville, Ontario, Canada (where my school is), returning to Neyagawa, Osaka, Japan (where OECU is headquartered.) You couldn't have planned a better excuse to cancel the trip if you tried.

Just curious where that concern is now. COVID-19 is already far worse than H1N1 was. And it's nowhere near done.

Please, Japan, lock it down. We're locked down for a couple of months at least and only denting the curve a bit. NYC is going to go through hell this month. Idiot states will follow and it will be their own damn fault at this point. Why Japan is trending closer to red states than blue at this point is kind of beyond me.

The lack of leadership from the Government is the cause of all this. People are trying to do the right thing, but are just floundering without strong leadership to guide them.

This. Federalism has its strengths. When there's a void at the top, governors and other local officials still have enough power to act. In Japan, cities can choose what to do with their schools and that's about it. Anything else is a request (and asking politely doesn't flatten curves).

And the contradictory messaging is just beyond absurd. Avoid Kabukicho, karaoke or hanami but by all means board that train with thousands of people tomorrow morning, taking your asymptomatic self on a road trip.

Japanese are still thinking about it , will process it another 1-2 month and then take actions once cases are out of control. Japan should start testing proactive, no need to lock-down, as most people are socially DISTANT since birth.

In a recommendation released after their meeting, the experts said, even though the country has not seen an explosive increase in infections so far

Delusion grandeur.

How are they going to see a spike when they are in complete denial and don't want to see by completely refusing to test.

I guess it is too much expecting even a little honesty from these government mouthpiece called experts.

from 40 to 78 to 66

I don't call this "spreading"....

spreading would be 40, 85, 140, 230, 390 and so on

and the virus has come to Japan on January 14, not March 25 as you can think by reading this article....

Well BUT in Japan the "experts" are the life long bureaucrats.

LudditeToday 01:12 pm JST

My friend is a nurse in a large London teaching hospital. She told me it's hell. She can't go home as her partner is a high risk person and has been self isolating now for two weeks and for god knows how much longer. Her life is working 13 hour shifts and sleeping in a hotel room. She is exhausted, stressed and unwell. Half the staff at the hospital are off sick. Patients who are sick with other things are not getting proper care, everything has been turned over to Covid19 patients.

This is coming Japan. Get ready. The masks won't save you.

the virus arrived in Japan on January 14, two weeks earlier than UK

so why here hospitals are not like "hell" ?

Why deaths are 5x less than UK ?

It's every individual responsibility to take care of their health by staying themselves from this Coronavirus. Hope to see a safe Japan.

I looked at my crystal ball 2 weeks into the future and this is what I saw:

The official number of cases is around 3500, Many people are feeling ill but being refused a coronavirus test. The hospitals are completely overrun by "mysterious pneumonia" cases, panic takes over the Japanese society as a result of is happening. Meanwhile the government announcing that now is a very crucial time, and that the task force is considering measures. In a press conference, Abe is insisting that declaration of emergency is not needed at this point. Schools are open. The government starts to distribute one 100ml bottle of hand sanitizer per household.

Graham DeShazoToday 06:57 am JST

If? IF?!?

Nobody in the government owns a tv or watches CNN? NYC, Italy, Iran? You really think it won’t happen here?

It’s here now. We need to shut down NOW.

This is what basic governmental incompetence looks like.

First arrival on corona virus in specific country :

Japan - 14 Jan.

USA - 20 Jan.

Italy - 29 Jan.

Spain - 30 Jan.

Iran - 18 Feb.

can you tell me why if Japan is the first country of this list to get corona virus and 57 people died for it, why in Iran, Italy and Spain it arrived 2-4 weeks later and those countries count a total of 25,000 people already died ???

shut down solve NOTHING, look at Corea, sir.

First arrival on corona virus in specific country

First reported case of COVID-19 in a specific country

There. I fixed it for you.

Don’t worry.

Healthcare won’t collapse as long as you keep the testing numbers so low.

wtf am I even saying.

Also, according to the definition of overshoot by the “experts”, it will never come because they won’t ramp up the number of testings done everyday.

Remember.

On weekends and some other days, the number of infected found will go down drastically, because the hospitals doing the tests are not open.

By the way, the reason death count from corona is so low in Japan is because they only count the deaths of people who were already tested and was found positive.

The ministry recently changed how they are showing the tables, but looking at the tables from a few days ago, you can see that the above is how they are counting the deaths from corona virus.

https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/newpage_10521.html

Also, if the death ratio of corona virus was 2 to 3% in Japan, even if the infected number goes up to 100,000, the death count will be 2 to 3 thousands spread through out recent months.

Divide that with 90 days for Jan to March, and that would be 30 to 50 deaths per day, or at the most 100 per day.

Of course the numbers will be passed as a noise or error and not be considered as a significant.

It is only when it starts to rise people will notice the difference.

Also, about that bs about people related to bars and clubs taking up 30% of the infected, that's what happens if you only test those people who came in to close contact with the infected.

If the first infected was found in a club or a bar, you are bound to test those related to clubs and bars more than those who aren't.

Then you will find more infected among the people who are in some way related to those industries.

The sample would be so biased that I wouldn't use it for any kind of analysis.

"Why can’t more bodies be autopsied? It boils down basically to a question of manpower. Experts are few and thinly scattered across the country. As of now, nationwide, only 170 are fully qualified to perform autopsies, and more than half of those are professors of forensic medicine for whom doing autopsies is a sideline. Some prefectures have only one qualified medical investigator."

https://japantoday.com/category/features/kuchikomi/japans-autopsy-rate-woefully-low

Yes, I remember that article - can't believe that it is 9 years old. My comment on the shortage of pathologists still stands i.e. death is a taboo sin Japan and jobs associated with it have traditionally been the reserve of burakumin.

@MichaelJones

Please, Japan, lock it down. We're locked down for a couple of months at least and only denting the curve a bit. NYC is going to go through hell this month. Idiot states will follow and it will be their own damn fault at this point. Why Japan is trending closer to red states than blue at this point is kind of beyond me.

This is the kind of hysteria that isn't going to help anyone. You don't even live here! Everyone on this site should look at some COVID-19 tracker online, e.g. the one by Bing, it's pretty good. Zoom out on the map. You see the giant clusters in New York, Spain/Italy, China, right? Big population centres, right? Would expect to have explosive COVID-19 cases, indeed! OK so how about Japan, it's a very densely populated area right? OH LOOK, THE RED CIRCLE IS SUPER TINY.

People. Wake up. 95% of the crisis here is all in your MINDS. There is no explosive growth in Japan, period! Japan had the virus months before N. America/Europe. The hospitals in those countries are full, makeshift clinics are being made in New York/Europe/China etc. after only a few WEEKS of infection, but in Japan, there is just no equivalent crisis after MONTHS. Period! It is an objective fact! The hospitals have beds available! Regardless of what you think about the amount of testing, the simple fact is that if we were having tens of thousands of cases as in some of the other countries, since the virus arrived in Japan way, way before those countries, we would have gotten it really bad here, I mean deaths in the thousands as in China, overflowing hospitals, all that.

But we simply are not seeing any of it. And what is with this burning desire to close down society? Is this some kind of mass hysteric death cult you all have? You want to shut down civilization with no endgame plan or objective criterion for when to reopen it other than "get rid of the virus" (not going to happen)? Been watching too much Walking Dead have we? Been itching for some good old fashioned pre-modern society life?

Look, COVID-19 is a fact of life in our world now. There is no putting the genie back in the bottle. It is just too easily transmitted. If we all quarantine now, all it does is delay the time when the virus starts spreading again. It's not like by shutting down society we will have it magically disappear. It will linger, and when we reopen our doors, it will spread again to those who haven't yet been exposed to it. It's a simple fact. The sooner we realize this, the better. Sure, we can have some measures to prevent people from gathering in large groups and especially in crowded indoor areas, perhaps slow the overall rate of exposure and hence burden on the healthcare system at any given time, but We. Can. Never. Stop. It. It's our neighbour now, and the sooner we get that in our heads, the faster we'll eradicate the hysteria and sick apocalyptic yearning so many of you seem to have.

Abe's appearance do not convey confidence.

Abe's external appearance is repulsive, inside is the same thing.

This headline is being regurgitated every day, like clockwork. When will people wake up especially the powers that be, listen to reason and do something more than promise masks...

@Velious Agreed.

I still think my wife and I had it after we got back from Taiwan in December but nobody will take our blood to look for antibodies. What a shame. Our plasma can help those very sick at least temporarily as they did in the days before vaccines.

@Velious

Wrong.

We don't know if there is a crisis or not.

Is the right answer.

If they don't test, there is no way they or we can know if there is a crisis or not.

And people are not flooding the hospitals because if they don't meet the criteria (which is absurdly strict), they are just told to stay home.

We don't know how many of the infected are among us, we don't know how many of the people being treated for pneumonia have corona, we don't know how many are dying because of corona.

All this because they are restricting the tests.

The first thing on the list of things to do when dealing with infectious virus should be to contain it's spread, as it will increase the number of people who needs caring by medical staff, thus causing the collapse of health care.

Healing the infected, especially if there is no vaccine or cure, should be the second on the list.

Adding to Japan's woes on the medical front but I realise this is a problem in many countries.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/10/22/national/japan-shortage-270000-nurses-2025/#.XoXWGbfqbis

And that program to bring thousands of nurses from Indonesia and The Philippines over the past decade has been an utter failure with the only ones remaining now with Japanese.

that should read married to Japanese.

I will say these things seem highly plausible, but not definitive, so I wont post sources as facts, but to blame Trump for his is giving China a pass and being intellectually lazy, even as they are supposedly helping the world with this pandemic. Their economy is recovering while the US is in the tank. IMO, there should of been even more tighter immigration controls, because its reported thousands of Chinese traveled out of Wuhan and to the world after the findings. The world was under the illusion that all was ok, when in fact, the virus was being spread.

Im learning more about the virus source also, very disturbing if true.

What are you learning and what is the source?

Japan has 4 times more CT scanners than other advanced nations. Wuhan pneumonia is detected by CT scanner even at early stage. It's more reliable than PCR test which bears 30% of pseud-positive and pseud-negative. Point is death. The deceased who died of Wuhan virus isn't seen even by the bereaved like the popular comedian and sent to cremation directly because of the possibility of contagion. So the number doesn't tell a lie.

A Japanese government panel of experts on Wednesday warned of a health care system collapse if a sharp increase in coronavirus infections

This can happen in a country that has a national health care system? Preposterous!

IMO, there should of been even more tighter immigration controls, because its reported thousands of Chinese traveled out of Wuhan and to the world after the findings.

Three quarters of a million visitors from China from Dec to Feb.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/disaster-motion-34-million-travelers-poured-us-coronavirus/story?id=69933625

Kobe White Bar Owner:

Use the Olympic stadium as a emergency hospital.

I dont think this is just about physical space. Even if you fill up the entire stadium with beds, so what? An ICU is called that precisely, because it is intensive. What do you do when all the doctors and nurses are overworked, fewer in numbers because of some are infected, and working much slower than usual because of extra infection precaution?

The problem is capacity, not just space.

Velius:

Look, COVID-19 is a fact of life in our world now. There is no putting the genie back in the bottle. It is just too easily transmitted. If we all quarantine now, all it does is delay the time when the virus starts spreading again

Soon, there will be effective treatment options (Trumps "game changer", much maligned and misreported by the "mainstream" press, is now approved by the FDA as effective), and eventually a vaccine. Unlike the normal flu vaccination, this is one I want to get. Clearly this bug is worse than the normal flu.

Months of turmoil will follow the delaying tactics. Get tough, shot down everything all movement and contact that is not absolutely necessary for twenty one days, and do some serious spot check testing especially around the current hotspots, if needed keep it shot one extra week. By then almost all infected will get out of it, few will die but everything will be seen and registered. That would be the only workable and health and economy saving way. One month is better then six months and billions of bailouts.