Tokyo reports 119 new coronavirus cases; 1st time below 200 in 5 days

If only the Government demands to Hostess bars and other bars and schools in Tokyo were are strong as the ones to the bases in Okinawa.

Not to worry, Koike is just giving us a day or two before the Government shoots it back up to 250.

I hope that isn't just attributable to lower reporting over the weekend.

Monday dip. Let's see tomorrow.

Is this good,bad ? More/less than expected? Instead or just releasing the numbers how about explaining what the government policy is?

If corona isnt a concern as the go-to- campaign indicates why do we need a constant update on daily numbers

Not sure, but it seems likely that the figure of 119 reported today is actually for Sunday July 12th.

Pure PR and manipulation for Koike. The fearful are more acquiescent

So over 50 cases was alarming,and a cut off point but now a quantifiable statistic is as vagu as a unicorn. Having a system that doesn't actually investigate cause of death ( life insurance from 7-11) and the disbanding of the expert Pannel...not a proactive good look.

Because it’s Monday, figures are lower on Monday.

At this point of a pandemic, and laboratories still close on the weekends.

Japan has a very unique culture.

New Zealand often saw lower rates of testing on the weekends, so this is a possible cause of the lower numbers. Anyway - it is good to not see a number of 200 or more for a change.

How many tests were conducted is important, only positive infections count shows nothing. The day when cases shot up to 243, I heard the total tests conducted in Tokyo were about 2400 on that day, this means about 10% people are infected of the number who went for testing.

If this is a pattern then we all must be very scared, as research has shown that even young and healthy people with no previous ailments, and no symptoms can have blood clotting and heart problems after getting infected with this virus.

Coming back to the number of tests, US is doing about 100 times as many tests, total is 30 million, Japan it is 300,000 only. And the number of cases of Japan is 20k vs 2M for US. This is also 100 times. While the number of deaths are definitely lower, one thing is for sure that the number of infections is atleast 10 times higher.

She had nightlife workers tested in Tokyo just as she was getting re-elected. As she doubtless expected, huge cases were found.

The entire nation trembled at the idea of new cases being found, while her political capital rose.

Not buying any of her motives

Numbers have to look not to bad just in time for the upcoming Go To Travel campaign

Out of how many tested? 129?

The total numbers, while concerning, are not the most worrisome part of the news. Rather, it should be more of a concern that on some of the past days that about half of the cases were of “unknown” (and thus untraceable) origins.

I would be more concerned with some prefectures seeing now cases after a few weeks without.

A small countryside town close from my city in the middle of Chiba, Oamishirasato-Shi, had its first case reported

For how long is this charade going to continue. Well Osaka averaging 600 test a day instead of ramping up testing has decided to light up the tsutenkaku tower yellow light as if the virus will magically reduce or disappear. There is no explanation why pcr testing stubbornly continues to be embarrassing low except but to think that herd immunity has been the hidden officially chosen path but unlike Sweden the government has decided not to say so for fear of the outlash domestically and internationally and ending the dreams of hosting the olympics.

Cool beans... how tested? And no... i don't want to jump to another website to find out.

You had one job to do.

*How many tested?

Figures are lower during the work week because thats when people either go back to work or stay at home hoping their symptoms go away. If not, they might call a hospital and get tested on Saturday if given permission.

Two of my students have developed anxiety disorders within the last few weeks after returning to school. In my 15 years of teaching, this is the first time I've had students develop this disorder. No one knows if its due to the long time away from school or perhaps its Covid-19 related. I think they should get antibody tests.

When & where do they do these tests ?

Number of tests (July 12): 534

Source: https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/cards/number-of-tested

Average positivity rate for the 7 days ending July 12: 6.1 %

Source: https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/

Actual daily positive rate for July 12: 22.3%

Source: confirmed cases for July 13 / tests conducted for July 12

drlucifer:

There is no explanation why pcr testing stubbornly continues to be embarrassing low....

Number of testing has been increasing steadily over time. But unlike USA, for example, Japanese are not in a hurry.

Welcome to Japan model. They have explained clearly from the very beginning. More testing does not necessarily mean better. Dr. Omi, the vice chair of government panel of experts of Covid-19 pandemic, for example, explains that blanket testing for entire population is meaningless. The method was thrown out of window at the beginning. Instead, they introduced Japan model: Testing must be focused. Priority, not test numbers, is essential.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shigeru_Omi

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ir-cEBsYI0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iE_g_StinjI

That testing everybody is meaningless is quite well accepted in Japan. Various YouTubers have explained it reason: a mathematical (statistical) reason.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMIScCb04qs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=67FGN9RKmqw

Marcelito

Seriously, Monday and sometimes Tuesday figures are always lower as the labs are closed on Sundays...anyine who even vaguely follows the corona story here knkws that. Its like clockwork, about as set in stone as the fact Abe Inc will fight tooth and nail even kts own panel experts to ensure no more than few thousand tests are done here daily. 

At this stage, I don't think it matters any longer the day of the week nor numbers of infection as it is very clear the data is way way below the reality and irrelevant due to the astronomically low number of test being carried out. Why nobody. experts included is asking any critical questions to officials but wallow in the euphoria of the low numbers leaves me scratching my head in disbelief. It is as if the media and the so called experts are only interested in making citizens develop pride in the low numbers by showing the high numbers of infection in the states but conveniently not showing the number of test performed.

119 tests all came back positive, so they... ahem... stopped.

Conincidentally.... (maybe) 119 is the magic telephone number in case of Emergencies requiring Fire/Ambulance services too!

534 tests were carried out on July 12, resulting in a 22% positive rate for that date, assuming the 119 positive results reported above pertain entirely to tests on Sunday.

Source: https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/cards/number-of-tested/

It appears that the media is only focused on Tokyo and totally forgotten that virus also everywhere in Japan too not only Tokyo that being said I think the number is probably a lot higher than 200 as its possible the real numbers not being expose to prevent cronovirusmongering.

How many deaths? If the pure number of cases is the main concern, then we should be equally alarmed about the cases of flu and common cold. By most media accounts the number of deaths are declining. That's good news.

drlucifer:

the data is way way below the reality and irrelevant due to the astronomically low number of test being carried out...

Assume you are living in a community of

(1) Total population: 100,000

(2) Number of the infected: 100 (0.1% of total population)

(3) Accuracy of the testing method: 99% 

(4) Your test result: positive.

Now ask yourself this question:

If you tested positive, what is the probability of being infected?

WRONG ANSWER: Your probability of being infected is 99% since the testing accuracy is 99%.

Here is the reason why the answer is wrong.

From (2)(3),

(5) Among the people infected (100), the probable number of people testing (correctly) positive is 99 people (99% accuracy).

(6) Among the people infected (100), the probable number of people testing (wrongly) negative is 1 person (1% error).

From (1)(2)(3),

(7) Among the people not infected (99,900), the probable number of people testing (wrongly) positive is 999 people (1% error).

(8) Among the people not infected (99,900), the probable number of people testing (correctly) negative is 98,901 people (99% accuracy).

From (4)(5)(7),

(9) You are in the group of either 99 people who correctly tested positive or 999 people who wrongly tested positive (that is, you are one of 99+999).

Now it follows that

(10) Your probability of being infected is [correctly positive]/[total positive] = 99/(99+999) = 99/1,098 = 9%.

Conclusion:

Even testing accuracy is as high as 99%, if you tested positive in a community of 100,000, where 0.1% are infected, your probability of being infected is only 9%. Not a reliable test result.

One negative side effect is that we send to hospitals many people who are not infected (91% of all positives), occupying beds and using other resources, which are really needed for real patients.

How can we improve the situation so that our testing become meaningful and not wasting medical resources? The answer is to avoid blanket testing; instead, focus on testing in sub-communities where large number of people are likely infected, such as locations of clusters, people who have contacted with the already infected, etc. In short, Japan model.

Deaths plateaued in May. Only 34 serious to critical cases right now. These numbers given alone are simply shameless fear mongering.

149 on Tuesday. Sadly too many but better than last week.

Because they detect molecules that are specific to SARS-CoV-2, the specificity of nucleic acid tests for COVID-19 is very high, meaning that a positive result can generally be trusted. 

And that's how it works.

You cannot divide by the total samples because these statistic measuraments are independent. You won't get a different result if there are more samples tested in your country/state/club.

The accuracy of the test is 99%... Not 9% or 0.1% or whatever number that people that haven't studied Probability and statistics are trying to make you believe.

I laughed a lot when the guy on YouTube compared the flip of a coin (conditional probability), with the COVID19 test (exclusive probability).

@socrateos

explained it reason: a mathematical (statistical) reason

https//www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMIScCb04qs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=67FGN9RKmqw

Just reported the videos for misleading information.

They are confusing conditional and exclusive probability concepts.