Tokyo reports 309 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally tops 1,000

Stay safe. Stay home.

Suggestion to Japan Today...

Maybe a side graph showing the daily Tokyo cases would be better than writing an article about it each day.

The case number alone is only one variable and, although important, one cannot make any conclusions from it.

Still too low to make the news

Trending up. Here are the past six Tuesdays: 31, 54, 106, 143, 237, 266. And today: 309.

309 humans and 2 dogs

*don't forget about the dogs

they breathed with abe no mask.... everything normal, reducing the population is the goal.

ObjectiveToday  04:12 pm JST

Suggestion to Japan Today...

Maybe a side graph showing the daily Tokyo cases would be better than writing an article about it each day.

The case number alone is only one variable and, although important, one cannot make any conclusions from it.

https://covid19japan.com/

Tokyo has requested that karaoke venues and establishments serving alcohol close by 10 p.m., 

This is great! I am so happy to hear that COVID-19 doesn't spread before 10pm.

a lot of Westerners don't know how to take responsibilities for themselves, they need the iron hand of strong government far up their backsides

Thats funny. More than a few of them on here have openly admitted the prime reason they want everything to remain open, is that they recklessly don't have two coins to rub together in savings after living in Japan for years. These "nothing to see here, lets not change anything" types are the ones who cannot take responsibilty for themselves.

Tokyo has requested that karaoke venues and establishments serving alcohol close by 10 p.m., which came into effect on Monday and will continue through the end of August, to mitigate the spread of the virus.

This is just ridiculous. I'm not in favor of a general lockdown, but these ridiculous half-measures make no sense and give me zero confidence in the government's response. If karaoke presents a high risk of spreading the disease, it is going to do so at 9:59 PM just as much as it is at 10:01 PM. Just shut it down already. Same with bars.

Somebody needs to write an article about why almost every government policy in response to this has been so ludicrous on its face, yet still gets implemented.

Mask shortage in March? No problem, we'll send you Abenomasks in June when nobody needs them anymore!

Need to prevent the disease from spreading to the countryside from urban areas? Perfect time for the government to subsidize the trips of city dwellers to rural areas!

Nowhere near enough testing? No problem, we'll just add another layer to the procedure for getting tests to ensure that people can continue to not get tested.

O yeah the number is curing down! Time to party! Grab your Asahi super dies! than you need to hit beach and enjoy lonly life, hope you can find lady and have joy living til you get the virus ^ ^)

This is just ridiculous.

I agree with you.

The point of the measures is to reduce the probability of transmissions. If a significant number of transmissions are occurring in afterwork karaoke parties, then the probabilities of those can be reduced by closing early, allowing the businesses to receive income during the day.

Day karaoke is usually someone who wants to sing, or sing with a friend.

Night karaoke is a sort of after-work nomikai with large numbers of people who have to go even if they don't want to.

Nick RamsayToday  04:27 pm JST

Trending up. Here are the past six Tuesdays: 31, 54, 106, 143, 237, 266. And today: 309.

Is it? Here are the week-to-week increases based on your numbers...

74% Week 1-2

96% Week 2-3

35% Week 3-4

65% Week 4-5

12% Week 5-6

16% Week 6 - NOW

Sadly you really have to explain that point.

Thanks for the percentages @Objective,

Easier to visualize with the effective reproductive number graph

Trending down thanks to Abenomask no doubt!

Some folks just seem to be idiots when it comes to this pandemic.

Okinawa, per capita (100,000) people, has jumped over Tokyo, with 21.31 infections per 100,000. worst in all of Japan.

We have had nearly 500 cases in the last three weeks, and no slowing in sight, pretty much ALL because of the Go to campaign (Abe)

So when you start talking about "trending down" better to get your head outta the sand before talking outta your butt!

Is it? Here are the week-to-week increases based on your numbers...

74% Week 1-2

96% Week 2-3

35% Week 3-4

65% Week 4-5

12% Week 5-6

16% Week 6 - NOW

A positive percentage increase (or r0 1) is still an upward trend. A flat trend, or plateau, would be indicated by 0% increase (r0 of 1). So while your post presents the data in a different form, it doesn't invalidate the claim of an upward trend. Nice try though.

Sorry, html issue. Should read an upward trend is indicated by a r0 greater than 1.

Why curfew at 10:00.

Does the virus come after dark?

You may be talking about different things. If r0 is 5 on the first day, 4 on the 2nd, 3.5 on the 3rd and so on, that is a downward trend even if the r0 never goes below 1

R0 for Tokyo has been on the downward trend since first week of July unfortunately it ticking upward again sine july30 I think

@rainyday. Bloomberg report here https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-31/japan-acted-like-the-virus-had-gone-now-it-s-spread-everywhere

The number of infections without the number of pcr test performed is useless as one cannit judge whether the infection is spreading ir not. We are in for the long haul.

i@n

The r0 is itself a numerical representation of the trend in number of cases. For example, if the r0 is 1.5 it means for every current active case, there will be 1.5 new cases, i.e. cases will increase in number. So while it is correct to say the r0 is trending down, as long as it is above one it only represents a slowing upward trend in actual cases, not a downward trend in cases.

Tokyo has requested that karaoke venues and establishments serving alcohol close by 10 p.m.

This is wonderful news! Why were we not informed earlier that the Coronavirus is a nocturnal predator? Get those morning rush hour trains packed full again!

And can we please stop with the coquettish "establishments serving alcohol " code? We are talking bars and rub'n'tug parlours in Kabukicho. And if you couldn't persuade Taro Shinysuit-san to enjoy Premium Friday when it would have been safe to do so, good luck getting him to stop whoring it up with his buddies on a "nomunication" meeting down the hostess bar on Friday night.

R0 for Tokyo has been on the downward trend since first week of July unfortunately it ticking upward again sine july30 I think

At the embarrassingly low rate of pcr testing nobody but God knows whether the trend is downward or upwards.

It is very easy to keep testing low yielding low infection rate and claim the half-hearted measures led to the reduction and there are millions if people who would believe,

Why curfew at 10:00. Does the virus come after dark?

There is no "curfew", it's just places that serve alcohol, are supposed to close by 10 to apply for the government subsidy.

Again, there is no curfew.

Tobias J Gibson

The r0 is a measure of rate of transmission. The aim of mitigation measures is to drive the r0 lower, to eventually drive it below 1.

If r0 is going down, mitigation measures are working,if it is going up mitigation measures aren't working.

That slowing that you mentioned is the r0 downward trend .

When r0 is on a downward trend you can see the graph of new cases flattening, when it's at 1 graph would be flat and when it's below 1 graph of new cases goes down as well.

You don't have to look at r0 figures to see downward "trend" in number of cases, the number of cases themselves show it.

I thought it was obvious that Objective wants to show trend in change of rate of transmission because the percentages represent rates of increase of cases relative to the previous count

Trending up. Here are the past six Tuesdays: 31, 54, 106, 143, 237, 266. And today: 309.

This was the original post, which gives raw new case data for six consecutive Sundays, and notes that the is an upward trend.

Is it? Here are the week-to-week increases based on your numbers...

This is the response, which clearly refutes the claim of an upward trend in the number of cases by use of rhetoric question proceeded by demonstrating a downward trend in the rate of increase in case numbers, an entirely different metric.

I was pointing out, that even if the rate of increase is on a downward trend, it is still increasing. Of course, both metrics have value. As you point out, rate of infection (r0) is an important metric when considering whether measures are effective. However, raw data on the number of cases is also important to put that in context. For example, cases rose 96% when comparing data for weeks 2 and 3, however that only translates to 52 cases. Whereas, the 16% increase between weeks 5 and 6 translates to 43 cases.

Most importantly, I believe it is not helpful to, at best, omit, or, at worst, misrepresent data to try to indicate that the virus is not increasing in Tokyo and wider Japan, or vice versa. Both 'teams' here frequently cherry pick data, especially when trying to prove the other wrong. It's intellectually dishonest. I'm just fact checking what people actually submit.

Sorry:

This was the original post, which gives raw new case data for six consecutive [Tuesdays], and notes that the is an upward trend.

Over 1,200 provisional confirmed cases today. I would expect that number to climb to around 2,500 by Thursday looking at the trends of past weeks.

The official trend is quite linear.

Abe on TV flapping his mouth off with a mask in his hand, Put it your face!

Interesting point is that the total death number 1,018 which equates to death rate of 2% directly coordinates with the total infected number of 41,308 patients.

The death rate of 2% aligns with the global average.

Basically it means that there are no phantom patients or the death toll should shoot through the ceiling which we are not seeing and we are not seeing a anomaly in spike of reported death of unknown reasons either so the math lines up.

@tiring

Who announced yesterday they think the fatality rate is 0.6%.

So as testing has increased 2% fatality rate should fall further.

As of now deaths are level with june daily rates and icu levels are lower but increasing slowly.

Got to love the down voting of facts

Disagree all you want but at least add to the discussion

@carpslidy

When folks actually post facts, as opposed to opinion, they might get a few upvotes.

Not to see that, yet.

Who announced yesterday they think the fatality rate is 0.6%.　

fact not opinion.

So as testing has increased 2% fatality rate should fall further

Opinion based on the fact the fatality rate has fallen by 1%　in the last month.

As of now deaths are level with june daily rates and icu levels are lower but increasing slowly.

June 73 deaths 2.3 per day

July 1.6 deaths per day

August 10 deaths 2.5 per day

June 4 uci 96 patients

July 4 34 patients.

august 4 88 patients

I'm just fact checking what people actually submit.

Please carry on, Tobias.

I smiled at your distinction of "upward trend in the number of cases"  and "downward trend in the rate of increase". It reminded of my statistics lessons at university where the lecturer would rant about trends. "You can find trends anywhere, just look at your stupid clothes." (or words to that effect) He was a good teacher.

Hearing how hard it is to get a virus test, I figured out how easy it could be and without the risk of entering a hospital and or clinic go to a Red Cross Blood donor bus and donate blood. Yes, I am sure they must be giving the tests prior to taking someone's blood

I’m not sure I’d make that assumption. This is a respiratory virus. I’m not sure that you could catch it from a blood transfusion.

Does anyone else know?