Virus infections not rampant nationwide but Japan on brink: Abe

Can anyone clarify what is the threshold for the emergency to be declared? 200-300 cases per day? A few hundred deaths a week? What is the criteria that the Govt is applying in this critical decision making process?

What is this government waiting for?? every day we have to get on packed trains and walk around crowded stations. It doesn't matter how many masks they give out.

On Wednesday, a government panel of experts said the health care system in urban areas, including Tokyo, is under increased strain, and steps need to be taken

What kind of steps might those be? Oh, wait, here they are on NHK from Monday:

Experts want PM to declare a state of emergency

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200330_43/

Abe and his economics minister are the ones who are resisting this. Not experts.

But if we lower our guard now even a little

What guard?

@jimzo Exactly.

Can anyone clarify what is the threshold for the emergency to be declared? 200-300 cases per day?

This was on Zero News channel 4 last night. The professor from Juntendo University said continual increases of 70, 80 per day would not be sufficient cause for a state of emergency but the key word is “sudden” increase and he actually said 200 as an example.

The state of emergency will be when people start dying at work and on the streets.

The people will decide,not the government-it will be as plain as the mask ion Abe’s face...

This was on Zero News channel 4 last night. The professor from Juntendo University said continual increases of 70, 80 per day would not be sufficient cause for a state of emergency but the key word is “sudden” increase and he actually said 200 as an example.

But if these so-called experts have been following what's happening in other countries, by the time this "sudden increase" happens, it is too late... from that point on, the infection rates explode and it becomes impossible to catch up and bring them under control. Declaring the emergency would be aimed at preventing that sudden surge from happening. There's no logic to their wait and watch approach.

They are saying the threshold for declaring emergency is when the number of positive from the tests increase rapidly.

So it will never come as long as they keep the number of tests as low as they have it now.

And threshold will come as soon as they ramp up the number of tests.

Stupid.

Abe is asleep at the wheel everyone knows that.

The world has effectively shut the shop but abe wants to make everyone continue to go to work, literally throwing people into the fire in boiler room to keep his Japan Inc turning, he cares nothing for anyone except himself and his ilk it is plain and simple.

Didnt we read the other day that him and Aso would not attend the same meetings but the other post shows them both sitting together wearing masks W H A T ?

My guess is that the government will declare a state of emergency on a Friday, after everyone's put in a full work week.

Another record in Tokyo today. 90 more cases.

On NHK last night the medical advisers warned that Japan was on the same trajectory as Europe and the UK. No one seems to have heard them.

You need to

Make sure you have enough ventilators. The UK government predicts they will need 30,000 at the peak. The Japanese population is double the UK. Do you have enough?

Make sure you have enough hospital beds for infectious diseases. Field hospitals are being set up in London, Birmingham and Manchester providing 10,000 extra beds. On the TV last night they said Tokyo had only 500 beds for infectious diseases - all of which are now full. What are you doing about it??

Stop sleeping and take action now.

On the blink, surely?

Already up to 97 new cases today in Tokyo.

Declare a National Emergency. Why? Because it's a National Emergency. Is Japan prepared to face a collapse of their medical system like other nations?

Make sure you have enough ventilators. The UK government predicts they will need 30,000 at the peak. The Japanese population is double the UK. Do you have enough?

Make sure you have enough hospital beds for infectious diseases. Field hospitals are being set up in London, Birmingham and Manchester providing 10,000 extra beds. On the TV last night they said Tokyo had only 500 beds for infectious diseases - all of which are now full. What are you doing about it??

Stop sleeping and take action now.

I would be surprised if Abe and his cabinet thought real hard and deep about that, seems like they were heavily focused on the Olympics as that was there main priority. Should this thing explode wide open, I guarantee you the system will be overwhelmed and what’s really scary is, I don’t think Japan or the hospitals can stomach or deal with that kind of heavy stress on a massive scale like in the other countries. I just don’t see it.

What will tonight’s strong suggestion be? Please don’t have baseball practices? Please?

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Thursday new coronavirus infections have not reached the point across Japan to declare a state of emergency, but the country should remain vigilant against an explosive surge.

At what point will he get off his backside, wake up and start to put preventative measures in place, before this virus time bomb goes off?

The one thing that keeps puzzling me is why is Japan so reluctant to ramp up testing? You do not need to test everyone but you should test as many suspected cases as you can. Quarantine those infected. That will slow or stop the spread of the virus. Is this do hard to understand?

Abe is starting to remind me of Comrade Dyatlov from Chernobyl.

But if these so-called experts have been following what's happening in other countries, by the time this "sudden increase" happens, it is too late... from that point on, the infection rates explode and it becomes impossible to catch up and bring them under control.

This is exactly what happened to the UK, Italy and the U.S.

While Rome burned didnt some one fiddle? Some sleeps while Japan , well you guess the rest.

Lets test: teachers, health care workers, nursing home patients, police, restaurant workers, transit employees. Not to mention anyone with breathing difficulty and those with high fevers. Please. Now.

Still the masses trudge to the office oblivious.

Aren't live houses in Tokyo still open? My wife told me an artist she'd heard of came out as positive after having a gig 10 days ago. Its as if nothing was learnt from the mass infection at the Osaka live house.

https://www.news24.jp/articles/2020/04/02/07619083.html

I have much less problem with people going to work than going to fuzoku or mizushobai or bars or live houses or pachinko. There is no point closing the schools if all these other places are still open.

Do we really need to shut down and revamp all of society.

If you decide to gamble and wins, all is good. However, if you lose. You get what is like Italy, Spain, France, UK, USA. You do know how terrible in those countries are, right? Scores of doctors and nurses are infected and even died! Lots of people are dead for god's sake! I really cannot help it but ask what the hell is wrong with you?

2019: 3 months of influenza cause 3300 deaths

2020: 3 months of corona cause 57 deaths.

Do doctors and nurses die treating influenze patients? More than 8000 medical staff have been infected and 63 doctors have died in Italy because of corona virus!

@Tokyo-m

So your suggestion is, wait until we have loads more deaths and then go for the lockdown?

@Tokyo-m

I'm simply saying that there is no need for a lockdown when numbers are low. What is the point of destroying the economy and causing mass unemployment and the untold suffering that would bring over 57 deaths?

The problem is that you're not 'simply saying'.

Italy - lockdown - 13,155 deaths

UK - lockdown - 2,532 deaths

Sweden - no lockdown - 239 deaths

Japan - no lockdown - 57 deaths

And don't say "oh, but the numbers in Japan will rise" because people have been saying that on this site for weeks now, and they've all been proved wrong.

By stating this, you are making a false equivalency, suggesting that lockdown = more deaths. Perhaps this is actually the case, but if this is the claim you are making, point to evidence. The disparity in numbers could be due to any number of factors. The UK only went into lockdown after cases and deaths started to escalate. The govt was heavily criticised for not enforcing lockdown as a precautionary measure. The escalation happened very quickly, and before the UK looked very much like Japan. This could just as easily happen to Japan.

On your point of 'proved wrong'. In what way? Japanese media is less vocal on coronavirus than in other countries, at least per my experience. There is so little testing being done, how do we know the true extent of the virus situation? (I'm not saying there's a cover-up, as others have) Also, even if cases are low, there is no social distancing taking place. People are out in droves to see cherry blossoms, I've seen packed streets, Round 1/arcades/cinemas are still open, I see my friends posting pictures from bars and restaurants. It would not take much for the virus to spread.

What is the point of destroying the economy and causing mass unemployment and the untold suffering that would bring over 57 deaths?

I just wanted to pick you up on this. Maybe the economy would take a hit, but why the mass unemployment? What prevents the Japanese govt from stepping in and helping businesses/employees like other countries? To return to the example of the UK, most employees are working from home. If they can't and their employer can't afford to pay them, the govt is paying 80% of salaries so that the employer does not have to terminate contracts. Warehouses are still open doing online orders and deliveries. Those that are finding themselves without jobs, mainly those in service industry such as waiters etc., are taking jobs at supermarkets who need thousands of extra staff to cope with increase in online shopping. The govt is also preventing evictions of those who cannot afford rent at this time.

I'm not saying the economy won't suffer and that there won't be unemployment, but other countries have shown that people can be protected in this time.

Like the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has infected more than 870,000 people and killed over 43,000 globally. The China World Health Organization *CHO) err sorry correction the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the rapidly spreading coronavirus outbreak a pandemic on March 11 so too the Abe administration is too late with response and effective implemented measures.

He’s waiting for it to get to 800000 first

@Tokyo-m

Like I said it is a gamble, maybe Japanese government has some trump cards up its sleeves or maybe it believes at the end luck would be on my side and all is good. Also if you do not want to do lockdown at least carry out extra national containment measures like increased testing. Enforce social distance etc. Is it so hard to do a little more for your citizens health?

@wasao

My guess is that the government will declare a state of emergency on a Friday, after everyone's put in a full work week.

You may be correct. I have heard a rumour from a reliable source that an announcement will be made on Friday. We shall see. It's coming though --its just a matter of when.

I guess Abe will do the same as in the other countries. 

He will announce that, either on Friday night or Saturday. That the state of emergency will take effect next Monday. Giving the population 2 days to adapt to the new situation. Both in Italy and Spain they did it that way.

@Burning Bush only a fool would defend Abe’s woeful lack of leadership. Prevention before cure. No leave the gate open - the horse has already bolted !

Virus infections not rampant nationwide but Japan on brink: Abe

We simply do not know that, since so few are being tested.

Iceland has been testing more than any other country (and they aiming at actually testing everybody), and so far, the results from Icelad show that about half the infected people have no symptoms at all. I don´t expect that to be different here, so you can assume there are a lot of people walking around here feeling perfectly fine who in fact have Corona.

new coronavirus infections have not reached the point across Japan to declare a state of emergency

Should it be interpreted as, as long the daily surge is not in a bunch of prefecture across Japan, they have no plan to declare state of emergency no matter how many cases a day Tokyo / Osaka reach and the cumulative number ?

They understand that declaring state of emergency, doesn't mean every prefecture is to make strong urge to their people/business and point and shame the non-obedient ones ?

And don't say "oh, but the numbers in Japan will rise" because people have been saying that on this site for weeks now, and they've all been proved wrong.

Weeks? More like months. People have been making all kinds of febrile predictions here. We should have been stepping over bodies in the street by now according to some of our more panicky posters.

That said, that doesn’t mean things couldn’t take s dramatic turn for the worse and it’s better to err on the side of caution.

The ones downplaying this are just as unhelpful as the febrile types.

Japan is a stunning laggard when it comes to testing for COVID-19. Japan is currently testing at a rate of 215 test per million people. Thailand, Peru, Kazakhstan, Vietnam, Ecuador, and Costa Rica, to name a few, are all testing at a higher rate than Japan. None of the other G7 countries test at a lower rate than Japan.

In 2014, Professor Ikegaya of Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine wrote in the respected journal Nature: "Autopsies in Japan are performed on only 1.6% of all deaths, the lowest rate among developed countries. Cause of death is almost always determined by simple visual inspection, as it was 100 years ago."

No testing: no verified COVID-19 cases

No autopsies: no verified COVID-19 deaths

No data: no problem

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing

https://www.nature.com/articles/507306e

6million unemployed Americans,

Ill say that again

6　million unemployed Americans

And people want Japan to copy this(?_?)

Tounge in cheek

Maybe China saw the opportunity to lockdown a city over a fairly mild new virus(compared to sars, ebola etc) take a short term economic hit .And then thus through self generated media and governmental hysteria get the world to copy their strategy. End result self conbobulation of economies and social freedoms around the world.

Again tounge in cheek

Meanwhile, as for today the record high of 33 have been discharged to join the recovery number at 505. Three died.

What the world especially Japan) can learn from South Korea's response from the BBC:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3csythk

I have no interest in Japan bashing.

But I have a huge question mark on why/how the Japanese number of Coronavirus contaminations and deaths are so low TODAY vs. what is happening worlwide.

TOMORROW is scary.

What differentiates Tokyo vs. New York?

Not rampant is a fair statement I believe.

Unfortunately running is most likely the reality.

Can someone translate the USA newspaper to Abe-san, even Trump is admitting the unavoidable coming chaos in the USA! That should be enough, no?

Okay, so hang on a sec... being "on the brink" is not time to declare an emergency? What is, after you've fallen over the cliff? I mean, I know Abe is a typical Japanese politician and all, waiting and praying until it's too late, and pointing the finger everywhere else, but seriously... how can you say, "We are on the brink! It's now or never," and then say, "But it's not time yet!"?

Clearly Abe is playing the dilemma game..."Darn if you do and darn if you don't" My take in all this is...it will take one of them to be infected to then declare the state of emergency! Experts are already stating, "We are not ready if the spread continues consistently." Hate to be the bearer of bad news but the experts are warning us that many will face eminent death before being treated. Lets not forget, hospital personnel here are under-staffed. GOD help us all!

By all means, let’s wait until exponential spread (Hint: were already there but won’t know it till the ERs fill up) to declare an emergency.

Let’s listen to the advice of business leaders (who are being quite short-sighted btw) over the expert advice of public health professionals.

Let’s prioritize short term economic performance over human life.

Ladies and gentlemen, this is what governmental malpractice looks like.

"At this point, we have not seen infections spreading rapidly and widely across the country. We are barely holding the line," Abe said in parliament.

As long as they have extremely strict requirements in place before people are allowed to be tested for Covid-19, the Abe can continue spouting this rubbish. They are playing a simple game of limiting the tests, so they can limit the confirmed numbers.

The crucial number is how many tests are being conducted per day???????

The number that I have found was about 1200 per day for a country of 125million. New Zealand is about to do 5000 per day for a country of 5 million. Look at Sth Korea which has drive through testing for anyone who wants it.

Close to 100 infected in Tokyo Thursday. Edging closer to the brink.

WillieB

Yes I am aware about Iceland. That is the scary part. They are infected and not exhibiting any obvious symptoms. However, they can go someplace and spread the virus to a lot of others who may die from it.

Iceland realized that testing is important to control this dread virus