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Japan's grim population outlook makes immigration talk inevitable

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This conversation should have started decades ago. There have been several potentially good immigration models offered to the Diet over the last ten years; my understanding is that they refused to even discuss them, although I've heard that one member of that body suggested selling condoms with holes in them!

This is pure stupidity. Japan's population is NOT going to return to growth through increases in marriage and people having more babies. The government and the Japanese people have to realise that controlled immigration is the only sensible option at this point.

If the purblind old men who run the country continue to refuse to discuss this issue, they will eventually be forced to allow immigration and will probably be panicked into voting for an ill-conceived and inappropriate policy that will do more harm than good.

16 ( +19 / -3 )

Id hazard a guess that this younger generation would be more willing and likely to accept a rise in immigration, especially as they get used to living and working with us. The increase in foreign students at universities too will help ease old prejudices. Its the old guard that wish for yesteryear that are going to stand in the way. An interesting attempt to stoke fears of immigration could be seen on NHKs Document 72 the other night which is usually a very warm, charming show. This one they spent three days in Hong Kong documenting an area of predominantly foreign immigrants. It made them look like a lawless, brawling , crime committing overflowing nuisance to the overworked and vigilant Hong Kong police. There was some nice stuff in there too , but the underlying theme was to be weary of immigration. it would have pushed all the right buttons for its intended Japanese audience. Couldn't help think it was made with a bit of an agenda.

8 ( +10 / -2 )

All of this immigration talk makes three absurd assumptions. Assumption one is that many people want to come and live in Japan. Sure, if you're from a third-world hellhole then, yeah, Japan is pretty good. But look at Japan right now; a significant number of young people are not marrying and those that do are not having children. This is known as the "zoo effect" which means animals in captivity will not breed if the conditions are not adequate. Parents and children kill each other at an alarming rate, thousands of people locks themselves in their rooms and never come out and people start high-fiving each other when the number of suicide dips below 30,000 in a year. It seems like the Japanese people don't like Japanese life. Assumption two is that the people who do immigrate to Japan will immediately be able to contribute to and assimilate into society. It's politically incorrect to say this, but ask Sweden and Denmark how sudden mass immigration has worked out---and remember that those countries are about as welcoming as they come. Assumption three is that these immigrants will be willing to pay a boatload of taxes to support an armada of elderly and a bloated government but will also be willing to be treated as second-class citizens.

Not happening, folks.

7 ( +9 / -2 )

a source close to the institute said there was “an order from the prime minister’s office to show the figures so as to emphasize an improvement.”

Bodge the figures to fake an improvement so Abe can lie to the people and claim success. That's not just the birth rate or child care facilities, it's every single aspect of life in Japan. Who on earth would believe anything this government says?

5 ( +8 / -3 )

CH3 - thanks for your response.

But you still seem to think that immigration is a cheap stop-gap program to cover short term anomalies. Nowhere did I suggest such a thing and in fact stating such shows you are only thinking narrowly about the negatives.

What I envisage is an engaging program where people are welcomed to come and contribute long term to Japan & Japanese society. Thinking positively - their presence should enable Japanese industries to continue, progress and not collapse - as well as allowing whole communities (urban & rural ) to sustain & prosper.

And your comment "...Their consumption, in itself, does not benefit anyone else.." is quite incredulous. So families here for the long term, actively employed and spending on food, material goods, housing, cars etc etc has no benefits for Japanese society.???

You really are in the rut of negativity.

5 ( +6 / -1 )

Immigration is already a reality. The population of foreign residents in Japan is increasing at a rate of 4 or 5 percent annually. Like it or not, Japan is going to have to live with this. As Peter pointed out, nobody's going to start having more babies.

4 ( +7 / -3 )

CH3 - it seems from your comments that there are only negatives concerning immigrants - a load on the system.

There are some aspects that could actually be positive for japan.

You know like,

filling demand in labor starved industries and sectors such as nursing, manufacturing and agriculture.

invigorating regional communities that are now dying by keeping shops, schools, health services etc functioning

-incorporating color, bonds and friendship into the culture as the world inreasingly globalizes(and that won't stop)

-and the big number cruncher - workers pay taxes & workers consume, which are absolutely essential points for any society that wishes to grow and be economicallyhealthy. Aged citizens don't pay taxes(generally) and will consume far less than younger people. This is a no-brainer.

So CH3 - the one way street you mentioned should refer to the direction Japan is heading if it doesn't confront the reality and initiate an immigration program. Unfortunately staying on that one way street will find oneself in a dead-end.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

The country’s population is expected to shrink to 88.08 million by 2065, down roughly 30 percent from its 2015 level, according to a government estimate released Monday.

First of all, I've said it before and will say it again. Today, as we speak, OVER 25% of the population is over 65. 2065 is a LONG way away. ALOT more people than that are going to be gone by aging ALONE, not to mention suicides, car crashes, murder, accidents, and plain old emigration.

While the ministry has denied that “political circumstances” were behind the delay, a source close to the institute said there was “an order from the prime minister’s office to show the figures so as to emphasize an improvement.”

I rest my case.

Asked if the goal of maintaining 100 million people in 2064 is achievable, he answered, “Of course.”

Suga is a nippon kaigi idiot. I would take anything he says with a salt mine.

“Once we have considered in a comprehensive and concrete manner how to take on foreigners, focusing on the fields in which this is genuinely required, we will do the necessary studies, including on how to make an arrangement that would not be confused with an immigration policy, and build a national consensus,” Suga said.

Ok lets dissect Suga's BS here: “Once we have considered in a comprehensive and concrete manner how to take on foreigners,

Take on foreigners? What are you going to go to war with immigrants before they even arrive??

focusing on the fields in which this is genuinely required, we will do the necessary studies, including on how to make an arrangement that would not be confused with an immigration policy, and build a national consensus

Oh boy this is going to take forever, isn't it? Not to mention this muppet wants to make an arrangement that would not be confused with an immigration policy- whatever the HELL that is. Suga couldn't find his butt with both hands and an assistant.

a projected plunge in the working population, aged between 15 and 64.The latest figures estimate this population will decline more than 40 percent from its 2015 level to 45.29 million in 2065.

I'm guessing that this is going to be the population decline instead of the optimistic 30% drop listed above. I also think that the labor force will shrink MUCH more than that. I think the gov is fudging the data to not make the situation more terrifying, but it is. I'm also willing to be that as the working conditions get worse and taxes rise both as a result of a shrinking labor force that the people, especially those who have kids and want a better future for them will jump ship and find another country with a more promising future. People just haven't started to feel the pain yet, but when they do, it'll be emigration on steriods.

Keidanren Chairman Sadayuki Sakakibara told a press conference on Monday the acceptance of immigrants “needs to be considered as a long-term issue.”

Meaning immigration. Sorry Suga.

3 ( +8 / -5 )

I get that nearly all current social systems rely on an ever increasing population to support them. Populations around the world have grown basically forever. But pyramid schemes are bad, they all fail at some point.

Japan has a population of 337/sq km. Thats actually pretty high by comparison to other countries. The US has 1/10 that amount. What is the sustainable human carrying capacity of the land that is Japan? It could be argued its overpopulated from that point of view.

As a world population, we the living in the richest nations, are stealing from the future. Many of us consume resources faster than they can be replenished.

The way I see it, Japan, Russia and Germany are volentarilly doing their part to help curb world overpopulation. The solution isn't more people, its figuring out a new social system that solves the problems we face in the failing economic pyramids around the world.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

The only immigration that could possibly work here in japan would have to be a 'chosen' one similar to what's been done, very successfully, in Australia, for decades now. Well educated, from some countries and not others, ideally rich, with skills which are in high demand etc. Basically a cherry-picked, 'J-specific' immigration.

Then treat them well, give them the opportunities they deserve even if it means getting better jobs than locals themselves. Question is, are J gvt and J ppl as a whole willing to be managed, lead, outperformed etc by migrants in their own country? Would 55yo oyaji accept to be managed by a 38yo female boss with a Filipino/Slovak/Korean etc background? Would they accept to live alongside such ppl? Am not sure they are right now tbh.

J govt/ppl shouldn't complain nor think they can attract those 'ideal' migrants, treat them like sh*t and ask them to leave when they no longer need them. Doesn't work like that am afraid. I fully respect Japan's monocultural ideals but they have to realise there is a (heavy) price to pay for it.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

There seems to be a lot of 'they' don't want immigration on this thread. I don't doubt the government are out of touch on many issues, but I'm not so sure about on this one.

In my experience, Japanese people in general are at best lukewarm about the idea of immigration reform. Something similar to the Australian system as pointed out by goldorak might get a look in, but I think even that would cause consternation for many.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Here in Scotland we have the same issue of a falling population, which is why we need immigration. While the rest of the UK tries to chase them off we need them. Japan will need to be more open... and please drop the uni degree requirement... it's stopping me applying for a work visa!

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Abe: Big talk, no action. Why doesn't he have any kids?

2 ( +2 / -0 )

sorry but Japanese would prefer self-extinction than any large scale immigration, and it has to be on a large scale if it has any hope of stopping population decline

2 ( +3 / -1 )

I don't see a problem in population decline. The world has too many people as it is. The less people, the better in my opinion.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

people being marginalized, physical confrontations, and blatant racism and discrimination.

That happens here every day now.

1 ( +6 / -5 )

government could financially incentivize people to have kids. it is kind of working in Singapore. not like they don't waste money on all sorts of other useless public spending.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

loggedin - I think the number of vacant houses is considerably more than 80,000 and more like 8,000,000 - although many of these homes would not be inhabitable in their current conditions and require renovation.

And yes - some innovative communities have some excellent programs to re-populate, re-invent and re-invigorate their areas. Onan town in Shimane is an excellent example. A vibrant, friendly, welcoming, lovely environment that I believe is the fastest (or one of the fastest) growing areas in rural Japan.

From my many visits to there, plenty of positivity flowing around.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

I am pretty sure that people don't know what "inevitable" really means. And just as evidence, let me say that I think I saw this same headline over a decade ago. Maybe two.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

In Kochi Prefecture on the island of Shikoku, prefectural initiatives to encourage marriage have seen some success but have also attracted criticism that they amount to sexual harassment.

Yeah, good luck engaging heavy-drinking stubborn igosso Kochi men and heavy drinking assertive short-tempered self-centered hachikin Kochi women. Just going with observation and experience. But not only me - Fume Kumagai too (https://books.google.co.jp/books?id=v-7SBAAAQBAJ&pg=PA111&lpg=PA111&dq=kochi+prefecture+divorce+rate&source=bl&ots=WQpiFl7Q3r&sig=OhSrcgnILyRPGHZPxgnkoi_2q_0&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwihvvK7nqDTAhWBJpQKHSKXDKoQ6AEIIzAA#v=onepage&q=kochi%20prefecture%20divorce%20rate&f=false)

Probably better off just throwing money at couples.

But the problem is not simple population numbers, rather having a sustaining generational demographic balance. In other words, more babies is good for about 30 to 40 years hence but the next five to twenty five years requires an injection of a A LOT OF young adults.

ANd is substantial population decline in Japan over the longer term really such an awful thing?

0 ( +2 / -2 )

What's so funny ?

The fact that you probably bash all day but yet stick around is more comical to me.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

initially I have to say that although Kochi has had higher divorce rates than the national av. , it is not kind at all to suggest the issue is of only alcohol abuse. 'Hachikin'(stand up to 4 guys) is a term of respect for Kochi women to mean they are strong willed and won't bow to the whims of men('igosso' means obstinate) . This goes against the common prejudice of Asian meekness. Promoting marriage is an inevitable thing for underpopulated areas ( that's anywhere outside the 3 or 4 major cities in Japan). Also, the baby bonus is nation-wide...unless Kochi has doubled it; nothing new there. Matchmaking is my favorite fantasy solution (there are no happy solutions, folks). Promote mixed-marriages with like-minded Asians- preferably Buddhists- and settle them in Grandpa's hometown. That's right. Repopulate the countryside and promote slow-living. Then those Cambodian and Burmese farmers (peasant farmers actually) can ride in air-conditioned tractors all day, then study Japanese on TV all night. Japanese women who can't find husbands may agree to step up( Male farmers have been hitching up with Asian brides for decades...). Laughing at myself now, I realise 'like-minded' is hilarious! But here let us think of the poor women in Denmark and Sweden who may need to convert to get married, but can keep the city living...So, by comparison, Japan has a great potential ( no long freezing winters like Scandinavia, etc. ), and cheap land abounds...while immigrants to Northern Europe may find themselves marrying cousins.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Too little too late, and the only "talk" they'll do is form amakudari panels to talk about how to AVOID immigration, including Sci-Fi robot futures where the old men will drool over the idea of sex maids to take care of you, etc. or continunuing the labor trafficking (AKA work program) that brings in overseas labor to work under subcontractors like the yaks and fight for their lives to get out of debt after coming.

They'll do ANYTHING to avoid immigration... including watching their country die.

0 ( +3 / -3 )

For the past few years the government has been increasing immigration basically through stealth. There are actually no caps on immigration (visa) numbers (unlike refugee numbers which are strictly limited), so they have been able to increase the number of people admitted to Japan simply by approving more visa applications that they receive. The "stealth" comes from the fact that by doing it that way they haven't had to enact any new legislation on immigration and thus avoided the need to debate it publicly in the Diet, thus getting around the general opposition to large scale immigration amongst the Japanese public.

The problem with this approach is that though the number of foreign residents has skyrocketed in the past decade, these are all basically on short term visas and many will likely return to their home countries rather than settling here permanently. The revolving door approach doesn't really help Japan in the long run since immigrants who stay contribute a lot more - they re-invest their earnings in Japan while short term stayers take all their savings with them when they go. I think it would be better to have a system that provided a clear path to permanent residence for select immigrants with skills, etc that Japan needs rather than simply viewing them as short term plugs for temporary holes in the labor market. Doing so would require actual legislative change and a debate in the Diet though, which is politically impossible at the moment as the article says. Maybe someday.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

The business imports immigrants as cheap laborers, uses them as long as it can make profits, and discards them when the economy is bad.

You have described the 'international trainee' program currently abused by employers with encouragement from the government.

If the immigrants only pay tax and do not receive any benefits from the government, it would be the case. But they are entitled to receive benefits and social services. What is the net contribution?

Immigrant workers are younger and healthier than the population as a whole. So the net contribution is automatic and very significant. As well as being blindingly obvious.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Japan, and other mature economies, don't need an influx of people Japan's GDP per capita often outpaces other developed economies, and living standards have been rising steadily.

True, immigration raises GDP, but that's only because there's more people and GDP is merely an aggregate number. It doesnt measure economic health. Small population countries have the highest socio-economic indexes in the world, and that's not a coincidence. Bigger ain't usually better.

0 ( +3 / -3 )

In skilled fields like IT, it sounds like the only people who come to Japan are those interested in Japan. Pay and conditions are poor compared to elsewhere. So it might be fanciful to think that there is loads of talent out there knocking on Japan's door. For Asian countries, Japanese companies are also perfectly aware that they can employ talented people in say Thailand and pay them Thai rates. There may be no need to ship them in and pay them Japanese wages, which as mentioned above are not high by global standards anyway.

The birth rate in Japan will not go up significantly until there is more acceptance and accommodation of alternate family models. The dad as full-time plus overtime breadwinner, mum as nonstop domestic goddess and family gofer taking the kids here, there, and everywhere model is unsustainable. You have to make it easier for single parents, parents who both work full time, parents who aren't married, families with no grandparent support, parents who care full time for the grandparents, etc. etc. You have to let people be free to raise kids in all manner of ways. The way to do that I think is not to give parents more money, I expect the birthrate will be low among high earners too, but to drastically reduce all of the lifestyle-killing grind parents are expected to do. Rather than paying parents more, pay someone to do all the PTA, neighbourhood association, bukatsu duties placed on parents, or better still, organize such activities so that such duties are unnecessary. If schools are going to stop classes because five kids have the flu, let the other 20 non-sick kids in the class come to school and just do self study or non-syllabus things. Don't force their parents to drop everything to look after them. On the whole, make raising kids fun and not a grind, and something single parents can do without having choose between leaving their 3 and 6 year olds unattended or missing PTA and handing an open goal to the gossips.

The star performer among First World countries in raising the birthrate is France, but about 50% (maybe even the majority) of children there are now born to unmarried parents.

Regarding families in Japan, I get on well with my wife and we are happy together, but I know that if this situation changes, the likely outcome would be that she'd take our three kids and I'd never get to see them. I would have no rights whatsoever. Deviate from the accepted family model in Japan and the punishment is huge. It is a recipe for unhappiness.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

Immigration/emigration, residency, fixed/temporary work visas, permanent or indefinite leave to remain, the bottom line remain, home is where the heart is. In the area of top end IT specialists work visas short/long term are not an issue. Building communication skills present the challenge,and integration. Office culture can be another deal breaker.

Building a life in Japan has allot to offer, I moan and groan about government, but I have a beautiful home, family and friends, Kochi at least my area is crime free and there is a wonderful sense of community spirit.

Immigration/emigration is defined in many respects as a choice to move and settle in another country. Immigration will not plug unskilled labour shortages ,especially in Japan small/medium sized agricultural farming cooperatives. The practicalities in providing accommodation are economically cost prohibitive.

As for depopulation, Tae Amano, 42 “I want to get into day care, if you have a child, the economic burden from school fees and other costs grows, and for women there is the risk that their careers will be cut off, we need to change this climate in which giving birth means you lose out.”......

Tae Amano has defined the challenge for government.

Hi inkochi, I tend to avoid the Obiyamachi Ichibangai and the Hirome market on Friday/Saturday nights, the inebriated knuckle dragging herd mentality seem to gather round this area. I don't know what possessed the mind to have a speed dating service. If that is what the writer is referring too,.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

There are over eighty thousand vacant houses in Japan. Many prefectures have incentive programmes to attract families. Like in Shimane you can get a free house and free job training and get that job...Maybe even on a fishing boat. Ha ""The practicalities in providing accommodation are economically cost prohibitive."" What a interesting sentence! Anyway, some of those 80,000 homes are livable or soon could be ( the government wants to pressure derelict owners to DO something... ) And with high competition amongst regions over Japan, I am sure costs can be and would be absorbed for the newcomers. Japan is quite lucky to be in a really unique position, like Poland and some other countries that are very rare places indeed. Here now i'm fishing for down votes again (gotta love it!) , but Polish women are as gorgeous as Japanese women. And the language difficulty is about on par. I mean if you freely plan to abandon your homeland, it better be for a place where you can grow to love the people. Love is all we need (repeat ) ya!

0 ( +0 / -0 )

A large percentage of people I see daily shouldn't be having children. They're ill equipped mentally, emotionally and financially to do so.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Lived here a long time. Will never be fully accepted and don't see it happening even if they select foreigners from ''desirable'' countries who themselves forced their own form of '' diversity'' upon many places of the world, to devastating consequences for most natives. They made their own bed so let them sleep in it. As long as the wife's and my pension is set, I don't really care what happens here. Gotta learn the hard way so let it happen. I will hopefully be on a white sand beach, beer in hand, surrounded by island sounds, not giving a you-know-what.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

The OECD highlights key areas that need reform. It is in the these area and sectors a process of restructure will need to be focused. Until wide-ranging employment reforms have been implemented, wage growth will have a negative effect economically for migrants, effecting their ability to integrate into society. This issue will manifest for Lawson Inc exchange students, whose remuneration packages place them at the bottom end of the employment market.

OECD urges Japan to promote labor reforms amid ‘muted’ wage growth

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/04/13/business/oecd-urges-japan-promote-labor-reforms-amid-muted-wage-growth/

0 ( +0 / -0 )

CH3: Do you have a source showing that immigrants are a net drain on the Treasury? I know a lot of foreign residents here in Japan, all paying (high) Japanese taxes, and none on welfare or receiving government benefits. So I would prefer to see actual numbers, if you have them.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

So basically this is akin to holding candy in one hand behind your back and taunting a kid to enjoy the taste. SMH!!

-1 ( +3 / -4 )

G.MAL.O.QApr. 13, 2017 - 09:45AM JST Japan is setting an example

Baaahahahaaa! Although I agree human population needs to decrease (far more so in Japan than my country of origin), it's just funny to see those words strung together.

-1 ( +6 / -7 )

browny1APR. 13, 2017 - 10:41AM JST

filling demand in labor starved industries and sectors such as nursing,

In other words, cheap labor. You see? The business imports immigrants as cheap laborers, uses them as long as it can make profits, and discards them when the economy is bad. Cheap laborers do not have much savings to survive in bad economy so that the municipality has to take care of them. It is like heads business wins, tails taxpayers lose.

and the big number cruncher - workers pay taxes & workers consume, which are absolutely essential points for any society

If the immigrants only pay tax and do not receive any benefits from the government, it would be the case. But they are entitled to receive benefits and social services. What is the net contribution?

Their consumption, in itself, does not benefit anyone else. Here again, the question is their net contribution.

-1 ( +5 / -6 )

The Japanese government has been very actively trying to encourage immigration without calling it immigration. The truth of the matter is that, Japan is not that attractive for talented people as other countries are, Japan has a lot of competition. It will take a lot to attract a skilled person into Japan, the US is without a doubt the magnet for talent.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

I say Immigrant farmers will be the ultimate and eventual reality. Stop dumping on the country life. Japan has far and away the best combination of low-cost and high standards in the world. And the main difference with G7 nations being the absence of harsh winters ( meaning principally year-round growing ), and low real estate prices. Australia and New Zealand are now priced through the sky! Any other warm country has high theft and social problems ( although I do favor the prospect Kenya has to offer, most notably their marriage laws, Ha! (bring on the down votes, guys)). Immigration numbers for Japan will not help the economy. It will only boost Food security. And unless you abolish compulsory education, those costs will rise without much benefit for society at large. Unfortunately, the poor and elderly are screwed- the same for other struggling aged folk of any other country too, I believe. Bring back inter-generational family living and create artistic and culturally minded farm communities, AND stop the oppression of seeds...ALL seeds under the sun, mind you. Then we will see high numbers of west coast North American, Kiwi, Ozzy, and Scot flooding the landscape. Yep, just like the old boom day emigration to South Africa and Australia, only this time they will assimilate peacefully and fairly. And the only vetting they will need is a seminar on the demerits of road rage! The sound of a klacson is as rare as the dodo bird over here. Ha (I mean a car horn )

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

"makes immigration talk inevitable"

Sure, if you mean the great minds populating this website, they'll have plenty to babble about.

For the real people living in Japan, there is no talk to have: immigration is off the table. 50 years is a long way to go, automation will save the day.

We are too many on the planet for limited resources. Japan is setting an example, it's time for the human population to decrease.

-3 ( +3 / -6 )

@goldorak: The only immigration that could possibly work here in japan would have to be a 'chosen' one similar to what's been done, very successfully, in Australia, for decades now. Well educated, from some countries and not others, ideally rich, with skills which are in high demand etc. Basically a cherry-picked, 'J-specific' immigration.

But then you will have everybody here up in arms calling the country, its government and people racist, discriminative, and what not. As we have seen, choosing whom to let into your country is never your own busness when you are Japanese.

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

Well, lessons have to be learned from the debacle in Europe. Japan does semm pretty sensible when it comes to Muslims though.

-5 ( +6 / -11 )

Peter WhiteAPR. 13, 2017 - 07:30AM JST

This conversation should have started decades ago. There have been several potentially good immigration models offered to the Diet over the last ten years; my understanding is that they refused to even discuss them,

Read Japanese newspapers. Its has been discussed for decades. And the answer is "no immigration".

Immigration is a one way street. Once you let them in, you cannot kick them out. You have to take care of them and their descendants forever. The welfare payment to the foreign nationals is already costing the local governments.

-9 ( +3 / -12 )

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