politics

Gov't delays budget surplus forecast to FY2027 as fiscal reform struggles

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Japan pushed back projections on Wednesday for bringing its budget into surplus, in a sign Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government is struggling to rein in massive public debt as the economy comes under increasing pressure.

DOH! (Face-palm/head-slap) Reigning in the public debt was your (Abe) outdated idea to bring back the "glory" years of the bubble! Your free money policies, and wasteful spending, are what brought this economic disaster to a head, and on top of that you want to raise the consumption tax and make things worse, in your attempt to make things better????

6 ( +6 / -0 )

I was thinking the same thing his first promise among many pledges, promisises was to reduce debt? Yet he has managed to incress it? Good job....fail and still be in the No 1 position. I could be PM and do a better job. Free cardboard boxes for everyone.

6 ( +6 / -0 )

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government is struggling to rein in massive public debt as the economy comes under increasing pressure.

What's happened to Abenomics?

5 ( +5 / -0 )

"In its twice-yearly fiscal and economic projections, the government expected the primary budget, excluding new bond sales and debt servicing, to swing to a surplus of 0.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in fiscal 2027.".

Does anyone even believe that forecast is remotely possible and accurate,lol.

I wonder how much time and money that took to prepare.

5 ( +5 / -0 )

For every politician there is probably 100 or more beauracracts trying desperately to look busy, get 10 in a room and you get your forecast.....be it totally out of whack from reality they still get a summer bonus. Their dads did the same why can't they.

5 ( +5 / -0 )

The narcissist Abe and his so called "abenomics", my ass!

7 ( +7 / -0 )

Whether Japan runs a surplus or a deficit....it makes no difference. Inflation is low and Japan has a solid currency.

It's tragic to slow down economic activity due to a neo-liberal superstition.

-2 ( +2 / -4 )

For every politician there is probably 100 or more beauracracts trying desperately to look busy, get 10 in a room and you get your forecast.....be it totally out of whack from reality they still get a summer bonus. Their dads did the same why can't they."

Precisely....ridiculous but accurate description... thats how J- govts roll.

swing to a surplus of 0.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in fiscal 2027.".

Does anyone even believe that forecast is remotely possible and accurate,lol."

Of course not, its just the perfect perpetual kicking the can down the road example. Meaningless forecasts repeatedly pushed back so that those who make them are retired with nice parachutes and free of responsibility for failure by that time....this will be repeated until end of time - as per J-govt economic manual 101.

It now expects real and nominal GDP growth at 2% and above 3%, respectively, from fiscal 2023, which many private-sector economists see as rosy. The government on Monday cut its fiscal 2019 real GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 1.3%."

Yeah lol, OK so in 2019 when Olympic spending is at its height and another wasteful stimulus as the idiotic tax hike countermeasure is factored in the best the govt can achieve is 0.9%....but somehow we are supposed to believe that 3-4 years later after the tax hike / olympic hangover induced recesssion hits and population continues to decrease the GDP growth will be tripled to 3%?....lol....and the paperpushers producing this useless drivel expect anyone to take it seriously? As Cricky said...they still get their bonuses no matter how ridiculous their "forecasts " are. Bunch of JHS kids could do a better job as their summer break homework.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Guys it's Premiun Friday tomorrow, time to meditate at a shrine, save enough to offset the new tax and be tankfull that those in power actually have no idea about you. If they did you would be getting a huge tax rise double didjets. So much fiscal reforms stagger I say actually it's good for me.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

The government has now pledged to balance a primary budget by the fiscal year end to March 2026.

Lolololololololololoololololololol

What a joke!! But yet again not surprised in the kicking the can down the road country.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

Was always going to fail on this one.  Raise rates, cut spending and give the economy a good shakeout.  with a declining population no need for economic growth.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

I pledge, promise to have everybody own at least one cardboard box by 2020 or within my life span thankyou for the support I actually have two cardboard boxes so see you suckers. And that is the state of politics. Budget surplus you mean I could have three cardboard boxes? Surplus??? Didn't I spend enough, I'm not borrowing billions only to have it horded in government coffers, boxes for everyone I say.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Raise tax! A cardboard tax for all.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Its just as well the Japanese money printer produces 1s and 0s and doesn't actually print anything. It would have long worn out by now. It's far more reliable than any printer I've ever owned.

According to the projection, the % of over 65s will hit 30% by 2025. The working age population is down to 58% by then, but since that is over 15s, take out the highschoolers and university students and you've got 50% of the population supporting the rest. Nice planning!

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Whether Japan runs a surplus or a deficit....it makes no difference. Inflation is low and Japan has a solid currency.

It's tragic to slow down economic activity due to a neo-liberal superstition.

@ Jeff Lee - absolutely brilliantly argued. Nice to see another voice of reason here. You forgot to add almost zero foreign debt, unemployment edging toward zero, and an economy ticking along nicely.

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

The economy is fine. What law says inflation is necessary?

0 ( +1 / -1 )

 absolutely brilliantly argued. Nice to see another voice of reason here. You forgot to add almost zero foreign debt, unemployment edging toward zero, and an economy ticking along nicely.

"Argued?" It's an opinion, as just because there is no inflation does not make the economy strong. Japan has had at least a decade of deflation, which has stagnated growth, and wages have gone from being "world-class" to lower middle-class and no raises in sight!

Unemployment numbers here are a farce, and lies from the government, which you believe, because you are brainwashed. You seem to think that "employment" means full-time, salaried, like back in the "old days". Again that is brainwashed opinion talking!

And the economy is slowing down once again, even as it has been noted here on JT too!

And just because it's not "foreign" debt, Debt is debt and MUST be repaid!

Since you dont seem to care about it, why not give me all your money, you dont need it, and I am a Japanese citizen so you can hand it over to me, and I dont need to pay you back!

3 ( +5 / -2 )

@Yubaru

Argued?" It's an opinion, 

My comment was short, but more than just an "opinion." But let me elaborate: Inflation is about the only constraint to spending in Japan, as it has a safe-haven sovereign currency, and inflation is nowhere near danger levels. That means that a fiscal debt in yen can be covered with basically no risk.

I've "argued" this point on this forum ad naseum from several years back, and subsequent events have proven me correct, my adversaries wrong. Check the archive.

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

as it has a safe-haven sovereign currency, and inflation is nowhere near danger levels. That means that a fiscal debt in yen can be covered with basically no risk.

There is no inflation to speak of, in fact for nearly 10 years there has been deflationary pressure on the economy with stagnant to non-existent growth in actual wealth for at least the same period.

The risk of covering the "debt" means printing more money, and everyone knows what happens when that occurs. Prices have increased without inflation because of the rise in taxes and import costs, yet wages and STABLE employment is regressing.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

with stagnant to non-existent growth

That isn't true. Japan's GDP per capita ("real growth") has been increasing steadily, in line with OECD averages.

https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-per-capita

"...printing more money, and everyone knows what happens when that occurs."

Outside of Japan, the immediate example is what the US did in the years following the financial crisis. What "occurred" is that the economy grew and recovered, with moderate inflation and stable prices.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

JeffLeeToday  05:48 am JST

with stagnant to non-existent growth

That isn't true. Japan's GDP per capita ("real growth") has been increasing steadily, in line with OECD averages.

Are people's lives in general any better for it? It may look good to company owners, economists and policy wonks but what about the average member of the public?

1 ( +2 / -1 )

"... what about the average member of the public"

Housing and infrastructure are way, way, better now than 20 or so years ago. Um, those things are kinda' important.

The 10,000 yen in my pocket goes about as far as it did around 20 years ago, when then there were no 100 yen stores (because there was no merchandise that cost as little as 100 yen), the cheapest European wine cost around 3,000 yen a bottle (now 500 yen), a basic pair of jeans were 6,000 to 8,000 yen, air tickets were 30 to 40 percent more expensive, and so on.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

JeffLeeAug. 3  06:50 am JST

"... what about the average member of the public"

Housing and infrastructure are way, way, better now than 20 or so years ago. Um, those things are kinda' important.

An increasing number of houses are derelict. That wouldn't be the case if people could buy them or felt well-off enough to pay property tax on houses previously occupied by deceased relatives.

The 10,000 yen in my pocket goes about as far as it did around 20 years ago, when then there were no 100 yen stores (because there was no merchandise that cost as little as 100 yen), the cheapest European wine cost around 3,000 yen a bottle (now 500 yen), a basic pair of jeans were 6,000 to 8,000 yen, air tickets were 30 to 40 percent more expensive, and so on.

How many people are likely to spend Y10,000 in 100 yen stores, or on cheap wine, jeans or air fares? The general trend is still one of very limited wage increases and weak consumer spending, no matter how far that 10,000 yen in your pocket goes.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

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