politics

Japan's defense budget needs to be ¥10 tril: LDP policy chief

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Populations slipping further into poverty and all governments can do is stoke tensions and throw a load more money at covid white elephants and more weapons. Useless.

3 ( +10 / -7 )

The 2021 spending was 5.4 trillion yen so double is 10.8 Trillion or from 47.2 billion USD to 94.4 Billion USD.

As long as they dont waste it and get more planes, ships, missiles and troops on the ground, and provide all with more field training. Spend wisely on research for domestic weapons and systems that can bolster the alliance and perhaps earn some foreign sales to put money back in the kitty.

And add forward bases on the Senkaku's, outposts and other islands a distance away from the main Islands for early warning, and solid forward defenses against air and sea incursions.

If they do not get good value out of the increase, and it is needed, then it becomes a lost opportunity to encourage peace in the region.

-1 ( +3 / -4 )

I wonder if the shrinking yen is already priced in, otherwise you soon might easily need ¥15 trl.

-3 ( +3 / -6 )

Japan is so behind in military equipment, and can’t meet recruitment targets it’s an uphill battle just to be functional in a war situation. Housing, training on modern weaponry. You need more drones, more trained pilots. More artillery more crews. Better pay, better training,

-4 ( +1 / -5 )

@Peter14

Unfortunately, pretty much none of this is going to happen.

Spend wisely on research for domestic weapons and systems that can bolster the alliance and perhaps earn some foreign sales to put money back in the kitty.

The domestic industry is in no state to do so. Here a pretty dire assessment from last December (2021).

https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14512775

Expect all the money to be spent on, as usual, US military weaponry with the current drop in exchange-rates giving Japan much much less bang for their buck.

As long as they dont waste it and get more planes, ships, missiles and troops on the ground, and provide all with more field training.

Not too sure what good all these additional vehicles would do as the JSDF's fill-rate is not optimal.

Look under (2) which is the variations between budgeted (定員) and current effective (現員)

https://www.mod.go.jp/j/profile/mod_sdf/kousei/

Overall, we are at 92% of budgeted personnel capacity, in addition to which, here an article from Sankei Biz (Sankei being the main right-wing media group in Japan) pointing already back in 2019 to a consecutive 5-year-failure to fill the budgeted personnel.

https://www.sankeibiz.jp/macro/news/190816/mca1908160500002-n1.htm

Both the above meaning that there is little sense to increase the number of planes, ships and overall vehicles as long as the increase in personnel does not follow suit

Like the rest of the Japanese society is the JSDF suffering from super-aging, as well as more and more JSDF personnel switching to more lucrative jobs in the private sector. On this topic, 10 years ago, when my wife was working in an ophthalmology clinic group, was there one subsidiary where all (male) doctors were former JSDF personnel. HQ always referred to that particular clinic under the nickname of the "barracks" or the "base".

As a stop-gap did the JSDF raise the age limit from 26 to 32 back in 2018 as well as accepting more female personnel. Expect down the lane a delay in retirement age as well. Pretty much like the rest of the society.

And add forward bases on the Senkaku's, outposts and other islands a distance away from the main Islands for early warning, and solid forward defenses against air and sea incursions.

Agree, but the LDP is all about barking and not biting (remember that Japan is heavily dependent on Chinese money and "Don't 'Bite the Hand That Feeds You" as they say). As they have yet to, even remotely, mention anything along these lines, I would think that Takaichi's above yapping is the most you'll get out of them...

As for Takaichi's statement of intent...

*"We need to conduct substantial research and development in the fields of space, electromagnetic waves and cybersecurity," said Takaichi, who is known to share a hawkish stance on security similar to that of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.*

...it is pretty moot talk as Japan is at least 2 decades behind in IT, tech and cybersecurity as news on information hacks, leaks and tech-issues constantly keep reminding us. Japan is said to currently lack over 100,000 experts in the IT-field, a number which is deemed to continue to increase every year.

As far as scientists go, over the last decade, I've seen my share of documentaries explaining in gory details on how much their research run on fumes and a lot of them are looking to other shores where their knowledge will be more welcomed and the payoff more substantial.

Long story short: I would unfortunately expect more money being wasted than anything else, pretty much like they usually do.

-1 ( +6 / -7 )

Most likely will happen. True. And you know it.

A no-name politician makes a comment about a pseudo-taboo topic. Then another no-namer does the same, Then another and then another. It picks up speed then it's a political debate.

Then it''s on the nightly news for months on end.

Opposing political parties feign their best to show their 'opposition' to such audacity.

Ultimately it passes.

Japan should have implemeted taxes immediately after the war ended. If they had, we would be paying 5% instead of 8%.

-7 ( +0 / -7 )

@Peter14

 Spend wisely on research for domestic weapons and systems that can bolster the alliance and perhaps earn some foreign sales to put money back in the kitty.

Yea this pretty much indicates a naivety both about the reality of the situation as well a complete misread on the character of the LDP.

0 ( +4 / -4 )

I don't see any problem here, raise those damn taxes and create regular army as war is behind the corner.

-10 ( +0 / -10 )

Sure no problem in ratcheting up tensions which will then make war a forgone conclusion.

Makes sense.

-6 ( +1 / -7 )

adding it should be financed through the issuance of government bonds

Nope.

-4 ( +1 / -5 )

They are really desperate to push for this, even when there are much more serious and urgent priorities. By making this desperation so obvious they are getting the population against it.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

Gotta love the LDP's commitment to "fiscal consolidation." How's that "primary balance" target going? LOL. Waiting to see the steep rise in the police budget (in a very safe country with a declining population) as well.

-2 ( +3 / -5 )

we have foreign boots on the ground here.superheroes from USA aka best army in the world aka world police-you name it.these costs a lot of money from japanese tax payers,we still need to sponsor so called JSDF with another large sum of money-so two armies in one territory.

now we need more guns and they wants more money from us.any reason OK,chinese threat,DPRK threat,Russia threat,Ukraine war,covid of eclipse of Moon-you name it.

japanese taxpayers are having hard time,zero support from gov but yes all of us have to shut up and pay for their "businesses".you die but they will buy new guns-beautiful is not it?

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Is it China, North Korea or Russia that is stimulating Japan to increment its defense budget, or is it Japan that is making use of these countries to justify its call for a defense budget hike despite the war-renouncing constitution?

The U.S. government must be content with the Kishida government's decision to break away from the long-time tradition of capping of Japan's defense budget less than 1% of the GDP because Washington has been urging Tokyo to increase it more and more.  

But where does the money come from? 

It comes from government bonds, that is, through debts. Certainly, it will take a heavy toll on people's daily life. People’s welfare will be sacrificed to the core without any doubt.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

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