Japan's primary deficit will triple from its earlier projection to 1.5 trillion yen in fiscal 2025, the target year when the government aims to turn a surplus, due to a substantial increase in defense spending, government projections showed Tuesday.
The revised projections are based on the assumption that Japan's economy will grow 2 percent in real terms, with the balance possibly deteriorating further if economic growth slows.
In its outlook, the government retained its assessment that Japan will achieve a surplus in the primary balance in fiscal 2026 of 2.5 trillion yen.
Under the less sanguine "baseline" scenario, which predicts the economy to grow only around 0.5 percent over the medium- to longer-term, Japan will not be able to bring the deficit to a surplus in fiscal 2025 or even by fiscal 2032, the final year covered by the projections.
Japan had aimed to attain the fiscal consolidation goal by fiscal 2020 but put it off until fiscal 2025. The forecasts were presented to a government panel on economic and fiscal policy on Tuesday.
The primary balance is the difference between tax revenue and expenses other than debt-servicing costs and an indicator of fiscal health. Japan's fiscal health is the worst among developed nations, with its government debt more than twice the size of the economy.
"We will continue to hold up the banner of fiscal reconstruction and aim for our goal of restoring fiscal health," Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told a parliamentary session on Tuesday. "We are not thinking about backpedaling on our stance."
Massive spending in recent years to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic and inflation accelerated by Russia's war in Ukraine has put fiscal rehabilitation on the back burner. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki warned in his speech to parliament on Monday that the nation's fiscal situation has been deteriorating on an "unprecedented" scale.
Japan plans to boost defense spending by 43 trillion yen over the next five years from fiscal 2023 to enhance its defense capabilities to better cope with threats from its neighbors China, North Korea and Russia.
Kishida has decided to secure necessary funding by cutting spending in non-defense areas and raising taxes, though he faces criticism from opposition lawmakers who see the process as too cursory. Some ruling party lawmakers take the view that the government should issue bonds for more defense spending.
The government has yet to decide how to secure 2.5 trillion yen of the planned 43 trillion, and this contributed to the worsening of the primary balance outlook, a government official said.
After the Bank of Japan stunned financial markets in late December by widening the trading band for 10-year Japanese government bond yields, the government raised its assumed long-term interest rates to 0.4 percent from 0.1 percent from fiscal 2023 onward. In fiscal 2026, the assumed rate rises to 0.6 percent, triple its July 2022 estimate.
Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, whose term as BOJ chief ends in April, has rejected the idea of further expanding the trade band. Market expectations have grown that the dovish central bank will shift to a tighter monetary policy, with eyes on who will succeed Kuroda, analysts say.
Higher interest rates mean more debt-servicing costs for the government.
In the current fiscal year to March, the primary deficit is forecast to widen to 49.3 trillion, instead of 40.6 trillion yen. It will shrink to 22.9 trillion in fiscal 2023, but that is still double the earlier projection.
© KYODO
29 Comments
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deanzaZZR
Please tell me the last time the Japanese economy averaged 2% or more real growth over a 3 year span.
sakurasuki
No money printing this time?
Cricky
Nothing says fiscal responsibility like the LDP.
TokyoLiving
Pathetic, pathetic, pathetic...
kurisupisu
..
The LDP will be holding banners whilst the citizens of Japan will be paying higher taxes.
What a dystopian future…
obladi
Yep, arms racing ain't cheap!
GBR48
How about renting all that military kit from the US instead of buying it?
Michael Machida
Japan has been renting the American military for decades now. It's time to make purchase. $$
elephant200
Japan's military building was unhelpful to change the strategic balance of Asia, China is well ahead of Japan in military spending.
The tax rasiising just made the Japanese people living standard deteriorated badly. How many years Japan has been idled? 30 years!
Does Abenomics helpful to raise the living standard of Japan? NO! His strategy was the worst. Japan better do not angered Communist China, you know your exports highly rely on the exports to China. Well some people might say: Hey, we can trade with India.
I wish you good luck and have a trip safe!
elephant200
Abe's strategy was simple: Keep printing Yen, keep the printing machine rolling. Ten years later, a weak Yen and a large population of low salary people. Japan's military equipments were very expensive, a weak means you need more money to buy and maintenance these weapons and that means more tax need to be collected. Very much like the Soviet Union and her armed forces in the late 1980s,the first two years of 1990s. Japan is having a big havoc with a frontline in her own country.
China doesn't worrying, Japan does !
Cricky
What is there to defend?, failed economy, old people, youth not interested in children? A tonne of military equipment defending a hollow shell that doesn’t make sense? Make it worth defending first.
Eastman
so here goes all of our taxes...because of "chinese/russian/you decide threat"
insane.its just insane.
JeffLee
What is the point of a "primary surplus"? What does it do? What happens after it's achieved?
OssanAmerica
All countries are now increasing their military budgets, mainly because Russia has awakened the world to the reality that "starting a war" is not some extinct 20th century concept. Japan is no exception, especially because China refuses to rule out taking Taiwan by military force. The two autocracies Russia and China have taken a joint position against the US and all it's European and Asian allies, forcing these nations to upgrade their defenses. If you want to crap on anyone, start with Putin and Xi.
Hercolobus
Profits for the US defense industries.
Hercolobus
Has nothing to do with Russia. Russia is just an alibi of the Money Masters who promote wars and conflicts to profit from arms sales and protection packages, while forcing governments to issue debt to pay for military outlays. Governments keep getting pushed between the sword and the wall. Watch the Money Masters in You TUBE.
fxgai
Vote me down if you would like to lend money to the government for 0.4% to 0.6%.
Vote me up if you would demand much, much more than that, or would not lend money to the government here at all.
I am in the latter camp, personally. If that is what the government is thinking then they will need to install a new money printer at the BOJ, and that means a weaker yen, and maybe even a weimar yen.
fxgai
Excessive government spending and presence is like a cancer growth, burdening and distorting the economy.
So, successfully killing off such a cancer would allow the patient to live prosperously thereafter.
Alternatively, the patient may be killed by the cancer, but there is always being reborn, in the case of a nation. It’d not be the first time it happened in Japan.
gintonic
"We will continue to hold up the banner of fiscal reconstruction and aim for our goal of restoring fiscal health," Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told a parliamentary session on Tuesday. "We are not thinking about backpedaling on our stance." ...&.....In its outlook, the government retained its assessment that Japan will achieve a surplus in the primary balance in fiscal 2026 of 2.5 trillion yen."
ROFL...these guys really are masters of lying with a straight face. Surplus achieved in 2026?....hahaha...good one Fumio.
Awa no Gaijin
Why worry about backpedaling when your already going round in circles anyway.
Ludicrous dithering party
Awa no Gaijin
Working together is the solution !
Throwing crap at each other is just childish cerebral incompetence and lack of creativity.
Your problem solving abilities are astounding.
Congratulations !
Raw Beer
By increasingly going along with America's proxy conflicts and increasing their "defense" spending, the only thing Japan accomplishes is to give reasons for those countries to threaten it.
The best thing Japan could do is kick out the US military and take care of its own defenses and alliances without being pressured (ordered) by the US.
That would save a ton of money and help calm things down.
OssanAmerica
This JT forum is a joke among news sites because of posters like you. And that having a brain isn't a requirement to post. Are you a Mod? Is that why you are still here?
dan
@OssanAmerica I just about to say the same about you ! Pot calling the kettle black !!
jadefeldtophelia
More money for the US arms dealers/makers. War or no war making guns etc.....always pays huge dividends.
theResident
hey! Eastman: What was that you said about the Germans NOT sending tanks ??? Seems like they are going to be on their way.....
kaimycahl
@Hercolobus Please keep me employed and continue paying my high salary nothing is free!!! No one is asking Japan to buy them, its funny, when I see the Japanese officials walking through the high bays looking at these things I see the expression on their faces of gratitude. As long as I see that I will continue to think CHA ching!! I hear the cash register ringing!
Profits for the US defense industries.
kaimycahl
@Awa no Gaijin All the other leaders are speaking the same language, Putin and Xi must have some terrible interpreters because they can't seem to understand world language! There goes your comment working together is the solution. I suggest you get a better dictionary because Putin and Xi are has no problem solving skills. Putin is now in Xi's back pocket and Xi is using him as a leaning post!!!
Working together is the solution !
Throwing crap at each other is just childish cerebral incompetence and lack of creativity. Your problem solving abilities are astounding. Congratulations !
kaimycahl
@Raw Beer I suggest you get better Barley for your raw beer, because it is interfering with your brain activity.
By increasingly going along with America's proxy conflicts and increasing their "defense" spending, the only thing Japan accomplishes is to give reasons for those countries to threaten it.
The best thing Japan could do is kick out the US military and take care of its own defenses and alliances without being pressured (ordered) by the US.
That would save a ton of money and help calm things down.