politics

Kishida's longevity as PM hinges on November general election

38 Comments
By Ryotaro Nakamaru

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Japan public general election does it matter anymore now?

13 ( +17 / -4 )

Wishing “Good Luck” to the people of Japan, Mr. Kishida and Japan’s prospective, future leaders.

“With the current terms of House of Representatives members ending on Oct 21, a nationwide vote must be held by Nov 28. The result will decide whether the former foreign minister will govern with a strong mandate or risk a short tenure.” -

-7 ( +0 / -7 )

Fumio Kishida will not have much time to bask in his victory in the race for leader of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party and, hence, the next prime minister, as he will soon face a major test in the form of a general election.

The next lower house election will be held within the honeymoon period. The LDP under Kishida is likely to retain a majority despite overall criticism, despite some loss of seats.

A bigger challenge will come next summer with the upper house election (though risky virus-driven winter season). The House of Councilor holds some power as its members' tenure is fixed and longer in 6 years. If failing to gain a majority there, the ruling LDP wouldn't be able to pass legislation smoothly due to semi-hung parliament.

The best strategy for Kishida is to remain focused only on corona responses and post-corona restoration.

3 ( +6 / -3 )

As expected, the Henoko new base didn't come up as a point of issue in their campaign. Kishida pledged strengthening ties with the U.S., intimating that he will let the ongoing construction of the new base forge ahead as scheduled.

Strengthening ties with the U.S. means the U.S. military presence in Japan and in Okinawa in particular will go on forever. So, Henoko is not a minuscule local issue at all but genuinely a national one. It’s so tragic that Kishida, let alone other contenders, should have given short shrift to the U.S. base issue.

Today’s Ryukyu Shimpo reports that the four candidates didn’t respond to a question as to what they thought about using dirt from battle ground in southern Okinawa for filling out sea in Henoko. The questionnaire had been sent to each candidate by a group called “Gamahuyaa” who have been for years voluntarily digging for the remains of the war dead at the battle ground.

-2 ( +5 / -7 )

"We need to show the people that the LDP has been reborn,"

One of those slogans that rings hollow. Quite literally in this case, since the birth rate has been going down for years.

11 ( +12 / -1 )

Most regional branches of the LDP chose Kono, so the MPs who chose Kishida must be confident that they can do well in the election anyway. The main thing was just to get Suga's face off the posters.

1 ( +7 / -6 )

The fact that rank and file LDP members supported Kono, as well as his popularity in opinion polls, shows how easily people can be manipulated by media propaganda. Proof that a country’s leader should never be chosen by direct vote.

-7 ( +6 / -13 )

Most regional branches of the LDP chose Kono,

Untrue. Kono didn't even get half the all chapters' support (with the total 382 votes).

Kono: 168 [votes]

Kishida: 110

Takaichi: 74

Noda: 29

【自民党総裁選】党員票でも河野氏が伸び悩む/党員・党友票の内訳一覧

https://www.nikkansports.com/general/nikkan/news/202109290000420.html

-4 ( +4 / -8 )

Yet another product of nepotism.

Also, expect him to roll out the NK abduction issue again (without actually doing anything).

4 ( +8 / -4 )

His longevity depends on Shinzo Abe.

Apparently it appears that Kishida won't be raising the Moritomo/Sakura party/Vet school/endless corruption questions in return for the support he got from Takaichi that allowed him to win the "election".

So he might last longer than one year.

10 ( +12 / -2 )

Expect the same nationalistic tone and general discrimination against certain foreign elements that keeps the Japanese voters happy and its plain sailing through the election

6 ( +10 / -4 )

So Kishda is the caretaker PM. With the history of LDP leader replacement and it seems like they are starting to roll that dice again. Kishida is absolutely no better than Suga.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

His longevity has nothing to do with the upcoming election; that's already in the bag anyways. The election just serves as a pretense to the Japanese people that they live in a functioning democracy. Rather, his longevity rests on how long the people who put him in power decide to keep him in power.

12 ( +13 / -1 )

Expect the same nationalistic tone and general discrimination against certain foreign elements that keeps the Japanese voters happy and its plain sailing through the election

exactly.

So Kishda is the caretaker PM. With the history of LDP leader replacement and it seems like they are starting to roll that dice again. Kishida is absolutely no better than Suga.

agree

-2 ( +4 / -6 )

It's a pathetic political system where the future prime minister is already determined in primary (inner party) elections.

7 ( +10 / -3 )

It's the ECONOMY Stpd.

Over and Over again people vote for those who bring food to the dinner table, Not COVID 19, NOT China, and certainly NOT international relation issues.

When people get hungry, and struggle to make ends meet, that's when they retaliate and take you down.

-5 ( +1 / -6 )

That will be 17 prime ministers in 30 years.

The UK has had 6.

The US has had a couple of presidents and some other guys.

3 ( +6 / -3 )

They really need some advice on media appearances. Look at that picture and his height in that chair. And it's not about the height of his body per se, but how he looks in that picture. And his hands, too.

"We need to show the people that the LDP has been reborn,"

I've heard that so many times in the last 30 years that if I were to put a 1Yen coin in my piggy bank, I'd be a millionaire by now and buy you all.

And most importantly, releasing a phrase like that to the media... that's just not the way to say it. I don't think they really realize it. They're implying that the LDP has been in some kind of mess or worse and now they're out of it. Only now.

All this buffoonery just goes to show that Japan is a country with a one-party government. The other political parties are there just to be counted and to play along.

6 ( +9 / -3 )

Kishida's longevity as PM hinges on November general election

Obviously, that's how democracy works or, more realistically, should work.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

I give him 12 months

1 ( +4 / -3 )

The fact that rank and file LDP members supported Kono, as well as his popularity in opinion polls, shows how easily people can be manipulated by media propaganda. Proof that a country’s leader should never be chosen by direct vote.

Nonsense...all it shows is that as usual the will of the average taro and Keiko is ignored and decisions made by the shadow LDP puppet masters. Country,s leader as all elected officials is supposed to " serve the people " and hence should be chosen by direct vote for precisely that reason. You have it backwards.

7 ( +8 / -1 )

kohakuebisu - Most regional branches of the LDP chose Kono,

noriahojanen - Untrue. Kono didn't even get half the all chapters' support (with the total 382 votes).

Kono: 168 [votes], Kishida: 110, Takaichi: 74 ,Noda: 29

Your semantic point is pretty weak - Kono still got almost 50% more branches & rank and file support than second placed Kishida. Anyone can see thats what kohakuebisu,s point was.

MPs who chose Kishida must be confident that they can do well in the election anyway. The main thing was just to get Suga's face off the posters.*

Agreed - now that the zero charisma strawberry farmer,s face is " off the posters" LDP will probably suffer just a small loss of seats and most of the heavily entrenched LDP long term lawmakers bums will be safe. Some of the younger MP,s elected recently without a deeply entranched local support network might loose their seats which will suit the old farts just fine as they can say to he rest " I told you so, next time tow the party line ". LDP really needs a heavy seat loss , until that happens real reform will not be allowed to happen.

0 ( +4 / -4 )

Another seat warmer.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

Basically nothing will change.

It’s LDP and he’s also a member of the Nippon Kaigi.

Do the math and see how we keep stucking with these ultra nationalist right wingers.

And he won’t make life easier for exapts as well.

0 ( +5 / -5 )

Abe's Damenomics is back in play.His tainted stain are all over the party.And his mouthpiece female lackey will get a plum job for splitting the vote to enable Kishida to win.Kishida won't last long.He's just a seat warmer a la Suga.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

As expected, the Henoko new base didn't come up as a point of issue in their campaign. Kishida pledged strengthening ties with the U.S.,

Of course not, and anyone who expected differently should pull their head out of the sand. There are more important and pressing issues that Kishida has to deal with and Henoko is a non-issue!

Plus, it wouldnt have mattered who was elected as the president of the LDP

The health and wellbeing of the people (covid) is main priority!

Anyone who puts their own pet issues in front of Covid and the people of Japan, is dead wrong!

0 ( +3 / -3 )

Japan public general election does it matter anymore now?

No, it doesn’t matter at all

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Yet another product of nepotism.

If you don’t come from a political dynasty, chances of you becoming a PM are thinner than slim. Kono and Takaichi come from families with long history in politics, too.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Wonder if he read all those books?

0 ( +0 / -0 )

I don't have high hopes for Kishida but we dodged a bullet by rejecting Kono.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

It would be very fruitful for this JT comment boards how exactly you all want Japan to be changed.

The more concrete, the better

1 ( +2 / -1 )

kennyGToday  06:40 pm JST

It would be very fruitful for this JT comment boards how exactly you all want Japan to be changed.

The more concrete, the better

JT might want to make this a topic for Have Your Say

0 ( +1 / -1 )

kennyGToday  06:40 pm JST

It would be very fruitful for this JT comment boards how exactly you all want Japan to be changed.

The more concrete, the better

Why's that? Will the ideas go in the next LDP election manifesto and will we all get paid huge consultants' fees?

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

YubaruToday  08:01 pm JST

JT might want to make this a topic for Have Your Say

Lol! Never happen, the mod's enjoy their power to delete whatever you say!

Actually, there's things happened first and get reported next and people jump on either bashing on Japan (mostly) or defending Japan.

Have your say, it looks like a vent and we all had better use this part more often

As far as I am concerned, I can't help feeling those are just a bunch of " Anyone, anything but LDP"

If you like Japan to be more socialist country ruled by JCP Just say it.

If you like Japan to give suffrage to most of you ( I guess) who owns dual or triple citizenship, just say it

If you like Japan to be destroyed and ruled by China or Koreas to revenge, just say it.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Japanese politicians = Nobody at all

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

William BjornsonToday  05:35 am JST

I, somehow, get the 'feeling' that JT editorial policy is NOT pro-Kishida...

Kyodo wrote the article, not JT.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

kennyGSep. 30  06:40 pm JST

It would be very fruitful for this JT comment boards how exactly you all want Japan to be changed.

The more concrete, the better

Stop electing the grandchildren of war criminals.

Accept full responsibility, in words and actions, for the deeds of those war criminals.

Start teaching kids how to think critically instead of simply memorizing.

Start using insulation in buildings.

Raise the height of sinks and counters to a level that is appropriate for the average height in Japan.

Start using double-pained windows.

Adopt the thinking that worker efficiency is a good thing; looking busy is simply a waste of time.

Abolish cram schools. If schools aren’t sufficient for entrance exams, reform the schools or the entrance exams.

Implement a nationwide sex offenders registry.

Stop using so many disposable chopsticks.

That enough or should I keep on going?

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Seems to be a concise, workable manifesto @P.Smith 6:40pm. How soon can we reasonably expect most to be implemented?

*- @P.Smith 8:16 pm: responding to @kennyG Sep. 30 6:40pm: [It would be very fruitful for this JT comment boards how exactly you all want Japan to be changed. The more concrete, the better*]

“Stop electing the grandchildren of war criminals.

Accept full responsibility, in words and actions, for the deeds of those war criminals.

Start teaching kids how to think critically instead of simply memorizing.

Start using insulation in buildings.

Raise the height of sinks and counters to a level that is appropriate for the average height in Japan.

Start using double-pained windows.

Adopt the thinking that worker efficiency is a good thing; looking busy is simply a waste of time.

Abolish cram schools. If schools aren’t sufficient for entrance exams, reform the schools or the entrance exams.

Implement a nationwide sex offenders registry.

Stop using so many disposable chopsticks.

That enough or should I keep on going?

0 ( +0 / -0 )

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