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Suga considers state of emergency in Tokyo, vicinity; says Japan will start vaccinations in late Feb

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Suga is a politician being a politician.

He and the gov't know full well lockdowns won't solve a damn thing but he has to hold off the hysterical banshees with delaying tactics.

Keep considering until the virus with its 99.9%+ recovery rate burns itself out.

-25 ( +27 / -52 )

Suga also hinted that if a state of emergency is declared in Tokyo, it won't be as strict as before.

You mean still the trains are going to be jam packed

36 ( +42 / -6 )

no Hints of how much support money the government will hand out to people who will be financially affected.

11 ( +21 / -10 )

Asking people not to go out after 8 is not a SOE. It’s just... asking people not to go out after 8.

25 ( +32 / -7 )

Why is Japan so far behind the rest of the developed world in providing vaccines?

29 ( +42 / -13 )

And what about those of us who don't have millions in the bank and cannot "work" from home? Screw us, eh? This is all so ridiculous. A lockdown is pure stupidity.

-4 ( +23 / -27 )

Still at considering stage? .. LOL

20 ( +24 / -4 )

It won’t be as severe because they don’t want to have to help pay those who are affected.

19 ( +22 / -3 )

*''Suga also hinted that if a state of emergency is declared in Tokyo, it won't be as strict as before.''*

O.K. it's clear and at least we know now and can plan accordingly;

They are going to do absolutely nothing.

27 ( +30 / -3 )

Human life must be protected at all costs. Even if the Japanese SOE is different, it’s still better than doing nothing. Yes, businesses will get hurt, people will lose income, but life was never supposed to be easy. In Japan, there are those who commit suicide because they feel ashamed and they don’t want their families or society to look at them as failed individuals and “losers”. That’s different. Different from the millions of people suffering from mental health problems. Different from the actual danger hundreds of thousands of people face because of this deadly(!) virus. Extremely important: imo the government should provide more financial support.

-1 ( +12 / -13 )

''Suga also hinted that if a state of emergency is declared in Tokyo, it won't be as strict as before.''*

It wasn't strict at all.......

25 ( +29 / -4 )

The victims of the pandemic who die from it with underlining conditions are still killed by the virus and not the underlining conditions. Survivors of the virus may also have serious lung damage. People can have underlining conditions and not know it.

Two people I knew were born with weak hearts. Both didn't know that, and were in good health until they both died before 30.

5 ( +18 / -13 )

Here's an idea Suga-san:

Retire before things get much worse and be satisfied with your 38% approval rating.

Put all the other nonsense like olympics and GOTO aside and focus on vaccinating the population.

Do something about the huge surge of deaths in elderly care facilities. Hint: Those pour souls are no going out to Shibuya and getting infected at drinking parties.
19 ( +24 / -5 )

Finally realisation the borders of Tokyo city do not stop at the prefecture lines. In reality the 1000 cases was already exceeded for the real greater Tokyo city area back in November or early December, and I think 2000 cases already exceeded later last month.

7 ( +10 / -3 )

“Considering...”

That’s like looking at a burning building and saying “I’m considering calling the emergency services.”

17 ( +21 / -4 )

Flaccid speech, the look on his face when asked a pre approved question?

As for the me, me ,me. You do live in a society and you made choices, just hasn't panned out this year. You are not alone.

6 ( +10 / -4 )

I am Going To travel tomorrow. I had to cough out an extra ¥52,000. Oh well, at least I am out here supporting the people.

-24 ( +6 / -30 )

Suga also hinted that if a state of emergency is declared in Tokyo, it won't be as strict as before.

what a mess and what purpose does a SOE going to do... I’m shocked at Japanese government lack of responsibility. What a joke

8 ( +15 / -7 )

No rush. Take your time.

8 ( +15 / -7 )

The victims of the pandemic who die from it with underlining conditions are still killed by the virus and not the underlining conditions. Survivors of the virus may also have serious lung damage. People can have underlining conditions and not know it. 

Two people I knew were born with weak hearts. Both didn't know that, and were in good health until they both died before 30.

What does that have to do with the headline? Were you reading a different article?

-2 ( +9 / -11 )

That’s like looking at a burning building and saying “I’m considering calling the emergency services.”

"considering" is Japanese English for "there will be a state of emergency"

6 ( +10 / -4 )

Extremely important: imo the government should provide more financial support.

The government doesn't pay for that. Japanese taxpayers do. I do. Providing you live and work in Japan, you do.

Theres no magic money tree, and the bill for those handouts everyone received in early summer are coming due soon.

-7 ( +12 / -19 )

Suga is a politician being a politician.

He and the gov't know full well lockdowns won't solve a damn thing but he has to hold off the hysterical banshees with delaying tactics.

Keep considering until the virus with its 99.9%+ recovery rate burns itself out.

"Solving" something is not the only reason to put forward a measure, sometimes you may need to do something that helps even if it is not a complete solution. The real point is how much of an effect something that cannot be enforced would have, both positive and negative. If the strategy depends on completely voluntary compliance from people you cannot punish nor compensate, the measure has no meaning. If the people behind the spreading were capable of behaving responsibly we would not have the need for the state of emergency on the first place.

Also, the virus kills much more than the 0.1% people in denial of science love to repeat, specially once health services become swamped. Not a single organization of experts in health care in the whole world thinks letting the virus "burns itself out" is acceptable, if you have the data to prove them all wrong it would be good to see it, else that is just your mistaken opinion.

8 ( +19 / -11 )

I’ve yet to personally know of anyone dead due to the virus.The number of recoverers that I do know are rising though.

-5 ( +10 / -15 )

art of saying something and at the end say-nothing.

6 ( +8 / -2 )

Why is Japan so far behind the rest of the developed world in providing vaccines?

Because they don't have the money, the necessary infrastructure, and critical talents. Years of partying on pointless bubbles of 1990s destroyed all of Japan's future.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/12/11/business/japan-slow-corona-vaccine/

China used those credit creation to steal IPs, train new talents, and achieve technological semi-independence. Japan used them to invoke the images of Nihonjinron everywhere.

9 ( +24 / -15 )

So glad I don't live in Tokyo!

5 ( +10 / -5 )

kurisupisu

I’ve yet to personally know of anyone dead due to the virus.The number of recoverers that I do know are rising though.

I don't personally know anyone who caught the virus. Does that mean it never happened? My closest friend is a doctor in Hiroshima who is busy 6 days a week with pandemic cases.

Your wife is a nurse. What does she say?

10 ( +13 / -3 )

"Solving" something is not the only reason to put forward a measure, sometimes you may need to do something that helps even if it is not a complete solution. The real point is how much of an effect something that cannot be enforced would have, both positive and negative. If the strategy depends on completely voluntary compliance from people you cannot punish nor compensate, the measure has no meaning. If the people behind the spreading were capable of behaving responsibly we would not have the need for the state of emergency on the first place.

So you are in favor of a lockdown despite lockdowns being abject failures. Check.

Also, the virus kills much more than the 0.1% people in denial of science love to repeat, specially once health services become swamped. Not a single organization of experts in health care in the whole world thinks letting the virus "burns itself out" is acceptable, if you have the data to prove them all wrong it would be good to see it, else that is just your mistaken opinion.

As stated before, those are the WHO's own estimates. And as stated on previous threads, health services complain of being swamped every year at this time.

If you have definitive data that shows me to be wrong, you still haven't presented it.

-9 ( +8 / -17 )

Theres no magic money tree

Yes, there is. They just don’t wanna show it.

People did and do enough, every single day. The government can and should do more. More money, more strictness. And if we can have a more strict SOE, ( here comes the good part ) it can be more effective.

3 ( +6 / -3 )

I am Going To travel tomorrow. I had to cough

Unfortunate choice of words?

9 ( +11 / -2 )

Come the time, come the man. Thank you Suga-san! I know you are doing your best!

-7 ( +5 / -12 )

Yes, there is. They just don’t wanna show it.

ok. Ill bite. Wheres this magic money tree specifically? Why won't they show it?

Do you know what taxes are? Inflation?

-9 ( +7 / -16 )

So you are in favor of a lockdown despite lockdowns being abject failures. Check.

Read again, lockdowns CAN have effects, if it can be demonstrated they don't (bad execution, not adequate cost/benefits analysis, meaningless recommendations, etc.) they can be pointless. Don't believe me? try and quote where did I wrote anything that can be constructed as your strawman.

As stated before, those are the WHO's own estimates. And as stated on previous threads, health services complain of being swamped every year at this time.

Show your source, I have not seen anywhere that the WHO assure 0.1% mortality even including complete health services occupancy.

My point is that you have no data to support your mistaken understanding and that not even a single organization of experts in health shares your mistaken opinion. Making obvious you cannot prove your points is what proves mine.

8 ( +15 / -7 )

Read again, lockdowns CAN have effects, if it can be demonstrated they don't (bad execution, not adequate cost/benefits analysis, meaningless recommendations, etc.) they can be pointless. Don't believe me? try and quote where did I wrote anything that can be constructed as your strawman.

"Lockdowns 'CAN' have effects". Pretty mealy-mouthed. But why is it areas under the hardest lockdowns are doing worse than areas with relaxed rules?

(I know, I know, I won't get an answer for that one as usual, but one can dream)

Show your source, I have not seen anywhere that the WHO assure 0.1% mortality even including complete health services occupancy.

I provided that to you about 3 days ago or so. You ignored it.

My point is that you have no data to support your mistaken understanding and that not even a single organization of experts in health shares your mistaken opinion. Making obvious you cannot prove your points is what proves mine.

Ive provided data to back every claim i've made. "Mr. Virus", however, has not been able to counter me once,

For someone who claims to be such a science-based fella, its funny that you fall to pieces when presented with......science.

-5 ( +8 / -13 )

Suga said the state of emergency will chiefly focuses on eating and drinking businesses. He is saying they have to die.

-1 ( +5 / -6 )

Won't start vaccinations till late February? What's with the delay?

The UK have already completed over 1 million vaccinations, and are aiming to roll out 2 million vaccinations a week, starting this week!!

7 ( +11 / -4 )

"Lockdowns 'CAN' have effects". Pretty mealy-mouthed. But why is it areas under the hardest lockdowns are doing worse than areas with relaxed rules?

First of all, are they? is it something that has absolutely no exceptions? What if I find places with very strict lockdowns and doing better than average? would that prove you wrong?

Second, do you understand the difference between correlation and causation? have it crossed your mind that other factors can cause both things? How about some epidemiological data that controls for other variables to prove this? it should be easy to find a paper that supports this, and of course it should be impossible to find a valid report that contradicts you.

Third, did you understand the point about something being useful even without being a solution? what kind of medical interventions can you say are effective to a 100%? Where do you think there are more evident and energetic campaigns about (for example) how to prevent gastrointestinal infections in children? on a city where it is a common cause of death or where it is so rare that nobody even hears it happening anymore?

I provided that to you about 3 days ago or so. You ignored it.

You presented no such thing.

Well, it was very easy to prove your mistake, so much that you had to make up something false. You have presented no such thing, the WHO has never said such a thing.

Ive provided data to back every claim i've made. "Mr. Virus", however, has not been able to counter me once,

I literally said "Not a single organization of experts in health care in the whole world thinks letting the virus "burns itself out" is acceptable", you presented exactly 0 data to prove the contrary, so are you accepting that your advice runs contrary to the whole world of experts on the topic? Else quote where did you prove me wrong.

Once you have to pretend to have presented something that nobody else can see it should be obvious who is the one without proof.

3 ( +9 / -6 )

Suga said the state of emergency will chiefly focuses on eating and drinking businesses. He is saying they have to die.

I guess he was looking at all the super spreader incidents from Florida restaurants and bars and all of the subsequent lawsuits from servers there over the past few months.

Oh wait...

-8 ( +4 / -12 )

RecklessToday  01:26 pm JST

Come the time, come the man. Thank you Suga-san! I know you are doing your best!

Come again? That time has long since past- None amongst the elite has had or has the 'manhood' to take the necessary decisions before time or even in time.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

RecklessToday  01:26 pm JST

Come the time, come the man. Thank you Suga-san! I know you are doing your best!

Come again? That time has long since past- None amongst the elite has had or has the 'manhood' to take the necessary decisions before time or even in time.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

Suga also hinted that if a state of emergency is declared in Tokyo, it won't be as strict as before.

Meaning.....we will blame the restaurants/ izakayas as usual but will let them stay open during restricted hours till 8pm so we don't have to pay them full / fair compensation. The worker bees will still be required to pack the trains everyday because J- Inc cronies demand it. If it still doesn't work we will blame the people for not co- operating enough and evade responsibility by claiming Japanese law doesn't allow us to enforce a proper lockdown. Yes, it's true as politicians we are paid way too much to have the ability to change or propose new laws that are necessary but right now we,re too busy to come back from our extended Christmas/ NY break and besides when we do come back we,ll be busy considering how to keep pushing for our Olympic dream on behalf of our friends at Dentsu & com. We need all those amakudari special advisor positions when we eventually get pushed out from our taxpayer funded troughs so we need to focus on our priorities. Thanks for your understanding and don't forget to vote for LDP again this fall.

2 ( +5 / -3 )

Late February is still almost 2 months away. Doctors and nurses need to be vaccinated now! By the end of Feb, Japan will be way in the back of the line in receiving doses. Pfizer won't wait for you Japan.

0 ( +4 / -4 )

So much indecisiveness in one person. He's acting like an observer instead of a leader.

5 ( +8 / -3 )

carpslidy

My closest friend is a doctor in Hiroshima who is busy 6 days a week with pandemic cases.

If your friends job is to treat coronavirus patients of course he is busy treating patients six days a week

He would not normally be treating virus patients. He's a surgeon but in his hospital, "all hands on deck".

I am sure cancer specialists are busy treating cancer patients, pediatricians busying treating sick children and dentists are busy treating cavities

Some hospitals, are not treating other patients like cancer. I had my cancer op in February before the pandemic took hold by I wasn't allowed to visit the hospital again for a checkup until June and even then some tests were not available. The situation varies from hospital to hospital.

Doctors are paid handsomly to be busy six days a week treating sick people.

Yes experienced doctors with years receive a good salary. But part of that is the length of time it takes to become a doctor.

5 ( +5 / -0 )

OreiO - Indeed Suga is acting exactly like a man should. He's not panicking like someone less than a man would.

-10 ( +6 / -16 )

There can be no lockdowns like in Europe just SOE.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Several points, trying to put thins in perspective.

The increase in the number of confirmed cases was expected wth the beginning the cold season.

Even the increased number of confirmed cases is minuscule when seen as a percentage of the 14-million-strong population of Tokyo. Same when you hunk about the total confirmed cases and the population of Japan as a whole.

The trains will be packed again by Thursday but everybody on the train wears a mask, nobody talks, which puts the possibility of contagion on the train close to zero.

Though many here will deny it, most if not all people use hand-sanitizer when out and about.

The government is not there to save you as an individual or to protect your business or life. You pay taxes to them for general guidance and to ensure the maintenance/management of the systems which serve the society as a whole. Your business and life are your own responsibility.

Some comments, even though probably well-intended, feed the fear in people reading them (see this: “Also, the virus kills much more than the 0.1% people in denial of science love to repeat, specially once health services become swamped.”) Such users, although they don’t offer any viable solutions or back their comments with data sources, often resolve to name-calling and shaming those who have reasons to be of different opinion.
0 ( +4 / -4 )

Typical. How many meetings, declarations of considerations, consultations, endless talks do they need to make a decision? Their whole indecisiveness makes people distrust the government. No concrete actions, just talks. I hope they could come up with something atleast, not necessarily a lockdown but something more than just asking people to wash hands, wear masks but still keep going to crowded places for the economy. So tired of this...

2 ( +5 / -3 )

Re the vaccine; this is hardly a nation of trailblazers so We’ll be lucky to get it before the virus peeters out.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

bobToday  02:08 pm JST

OreiO - Indeed Suga is acting exactly like a man should. He's not panicking like someone less than a man would.

There's a big, big difference between 'not panicking' and constantly shilly-shallying.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Virusrex,

The medical world is also divided about the best way to deal with the pandemic. Pathologists, virologists, and immunologists from around the world have expressed reservations about the way the pandemic is being handled. Mainstream media do not do it but some news outlets have indeed published articles and opinions about this division.

The problem I see is the lack of open dialogue on the topic and the shadowing/silencing of the opinions which diverge from the main narrative.

3 ( +7 / -4 )

But why is it areas under the hardest lockdowns are doing worse than areas with relaxed rules?

You mean New Zealand and Australia are doing worse than Japan ? Thanks for the update. I did not know.

Confinement, sanitary binding, stay-at-home order, movement control order ... are effective in reaching the objective stated at their start, thus when situation improve or objective are reached they got relaxed and when situation get worse they got strengthened.

0 ( +4 / -4 )

Regardless of one's feelings on the virus and the differing opinion one must admit Suga is a very weak leader. I watched his speech this morning and he absolutely does not exude confidence. I would prefer he is decisive and explains in detail the rationale for his decisions....even if I may not agree with him. From all the people I know here I am surprised his approval rating is 38%. It seems too high.

I believe the virus is real, likely less lethal than what many think it is, however absolutely much worse than a flu. I personally know 4 people who had the virus and all of them are in their 30s. One is my daughter's partner who caught it, lost his taste, and smell, and ended up coughing up blood. He recovered and has no lasting affects but he said it was rough - my daughter did not catch it (remarkable actually). The other 3 are family friends who got the virus (2 in the 30s and their 2 year old). All had mild to no effects.

A friend of mine who is a doctor recommends waiting until the Johnson and Johnson Human adenovirus vaccine or the Novavax vaccine is available. My mom's doctor also told her the same (both of these people are strong proponents of vaccines). Their concern is the mRNA vaccine has been rushed.

As JaneM2 says there are lots of differing opinions and that is how science works.

Regardless I hope this year will be much better than 2020.....I am thinking of various and strange ways to destroy 2020 calendars...

3 ( +5 / -2 )

Some comments, even though probably well-intended, feed the fear in people reading them (see this: “Also, the virus kills much more than the 0.1% people in denial of science love to repeat, specially once health services become swamped.”) Such users, although they don’t offer any viable solutions or back their comments with data sources, often resolve to name-calling and shaming those who have reasons to be of different opinion.

There is no valid "different opinion" about things that can be corroborated as true or false. Accepting reality is a much more productive thing than trying to live in denial just to be more confortable. There are plenty of sources easily available that prove that COVID-19 death rates are not 0.1% It is unfortunate that you choose to "feed the fear" by refusing to accept things that can be proved true because of that fear.

https://fullfact.org/health/Covid-recovery-vaccine/

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/89750

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0241031

etc. etc.

The medical world is also divided about the best way to deal with the pandemic. Pathologists, virologists, and immunologists from around the world have expressed reservations about the way the pandemic is being handled. Mainstream media do not do it but some news outlets have indeed published articles and opinions about this division.

That has nothing to do with correcting false statements, dialog is open and very productive around the world, but that requires that lies are discarded out of the conversation from the beginning.

A political decision (such as the way to deal with the pandemic) is very complicated and has no single answer, but trying to misrepresent scientific information is not going to improve it, on the contrary it will only make it more likely to choose the best course of action.

For example

"For country X at this point a lockdown would not be productive" can be a completely correct statement, maybe the population is extremely obedient, maybe the culture makes it easier to keep social distancing without having to make things illegal, maybe the spreading is well controlled and economic damage is minimal, or as in the proposed SOE the "lockdown" lacks any teeth so there is hardly any benefit to be expected. This will be a political decision.

But

"Lockdowns have no effect on the prevention of cases or deaths from the pandemic" is not a correct statement according to the best available evidence. There are many studies that show lockdowns have effects in controlling the spreading and preventing negative consequences. This is not a political decision.

To decide what is the best course of action you need to accept the scientific data, only then the people in charge can see if the benefits justify the costs or not, there is no point in including false statements in the discussion, they should be discarded.

1 ( +6 / -5 )

My point is that you have no data to support your mistaken understanding and that not even a single organization of experts in health shares your mistaken opinion. Making obvious you cannot prove your points is what proves mine.

This kind of comment. I don’t show any data sources, but your not showing any, either, proves that what I say is right.

Where is the open, data-based, constructive dialogue?

-2 ( +5 / -7 )

Won't start vaccinations till late February? What's with the delay? 

Japan is not known for it's ability to adapt to change quickly. First of all, even though it's the 3rd largest economy and supposedly a leader in high tech, why do you not hear about Japanese companies leading the pack and coming out with their own vaccine? Because they can't adapt to change quickly here. When there's a recession in the USA that lasts 3 years, it will last 25 years here. What other country in the world thought it was a good idea to launch a travel campaign in the middle of a 100 year pandemic?

It's not their vaccine, they will do it their way, on their own time frame. As usual, they're WAY behind everyone else again.

9 ( +12 / -3 )

So many of you seem almost fanatical in your zeal to shut down one of the world's largest economies and submit to the same authoritarian control we're seeing exercised overseas. The Japanese for the most part are a highly responsible, civilised race, and deserve greater trust than is apparent in these comments. What is your end game? The death of the F&B industry? Can you not be self-reliant without the express direction of a higher authority? Or perhaps I wonder if you enjoy seeing others you perceive as being wrong chastised, punished, and controlled. Where was your voice when thousands were dying of influenza every year? You would find far greater comfort back home in the west no? I hear the UK has a very fun lockdown you could be part of.

-4 ( +10 / -14 )

@DatAss

So many of you seem almost fanatical in your zeal to shut down one of the world's largest economies and submit to the same authoritarian control we're seeing exercised overseas.

Your point is well taken. There are actually many of us do not want the authoritarian control which has been exercised in some other countries however I would like the State of Emergency enacted again similar to which was done last year. It worked and did not overly impose on civil liberties. During that SoE I was able to go to parks, ride my bike, we even picnicked a few times keeping a distance from others.

You are right the citizens and residents of Japan for the most part are responsible and would follow the recommendations for the SoE set forth by the government. This was proven before and can be seen from empirical data.

In turn the government should call of the Olympics and use funds to compensate the F&B industry and other business to the extent necessary and possible. There could even be allowances for restaurants to operate at reduced capacity.

My biggest concern in Japan is not the F&B industry (when operated responsibly) but the public transportation, especially the trains.

5 ( +6 / -1 )

A. In my opinion, not factually proven, I find VirusEx to be pretty much on with understanding the English versions of medical and scientific inquiries here. My opinion, so no need to get in a huff.

B. In my opinion I also find Zichi full of wisdom as having lived a long time and is logical and not argumentive. My opinion, so no need to get in a huff.

C. My third opinion: I am assuming the majority of readers and posters here are not Japanese readers, writers, but possibly can handle some Japanese conversation. To interpret Japanese into English is a bear and visa versa. So looking at the word considering probably had a nice nice "kamoshiranai...kedo sa...." etc. after it. Do not try to take the words in English as set in gold. They are not.

I constantly study new Japanese words, phrases and terms...and English ones daily as well. My opinion only here, so get in a huff.

-8 ( +4 / -12 )

This kind of comment. I don’t show any data sources, but your not showing any, either, proves that what I say is right.

So, what kind of data source would be necessary according to you to prove that it is impossible to find an organization of health care professionals in the whole world that says that letting the virus run rampart is the best course of action? A link to a google search with 0 results? To say it more simply, if my point is that there is no evidence of something existing (an organization of experts with that same opinion) then not being able to show it is precisely how this point is proven. On the other hand, it should be very easy to prove this point as false, specifically by showing examples of this that supposedly doesn't exist.

It is constructive to demonstrate false things as false, there is nothing to be obtained by basing an argument on fantasies. If that is what you want that is not right.

-4 ( +3 / -7 )

A. In my opinion, not factually proven, I find VirusEx to be pretty much on with understanding the English versions of medical and scientific inquiries here.

Absolutely. For the ones he agrees with, in any case.

He suddenly and mysteriously forgets how to read the inquiries of those he doesn't.

-6 ( +5 / -11 )

Virusrex

No lies. Calling medical professionals liers just because they express opinions different from yours only shows that there is no open dialogue, but only consent between same-minded people which is masked as a dialogue. You should not ignore the difference between crude mortality rate, infection death rate and case death rate, which are very different.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

You and most of the media talk about case death rate without specifying that it is the percentage of deaths in confirmed cases only. Needless to say, this rate is much higher than the infection death rate, and this should be made very clear by the media, too.

Saying that “the death rate of 0.1% is much higher because...” makes many of the readers think that contracting the virus means death, which is at least 98.6% far from the truth.

-2 ( +5 / -7 )

nope. Try again.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/covid-19-may-have-infected-10-percent-world-s-population-n1242118

How does that prove that COVID-19 survival rate even with full health services occupancy at 100% is 0.1%? do you think the world hospitals have been full the whole year? The whole point of the social distancing measures is to avoid having this situation, so people can get infected and treated in the best possible way.

You need to understand better what you are trying to prove, at this point your source do not prove what you said it did, it is still false. According to you the US will have negative fatality rates from now on, after all more than 0.1% of its population have died from COVID-19, the only way you would be right is if nobody else die from the disease from now (and a few tens of thousands come back from the grave).

Name one. But in the meantime, here's bunch that say otherwise

Your first article says nothing about lockdowns being worthless (which is your point) it says that countries can control the pandemic without needing it, and that the UK squandered the benefits from the lockdowns in completely inadequate measures to follow. It does not prove your point (and it not even a scientific paper)

The second says that countries that already had problems with health do not solve those preexisting conditions by issuing lockdowns, it never says that this is something that can be generalized to any country or that lockdowns would not be effective together with other health measures.

The third is not a scientific study either, and its from April! there are plenty of evidence produced since then that say unequivocally that lockdowns have effects in protecting people.

From your fourth reference "Australia’s first lockdown was one of the most successful in the world, bringing down cases to just a handful a day between March and when it ended in May. " So, how does this proves that lockdowns have no effects?

Your fifth reference is an opinion, and one very heavily criticized for its methodology, how come this was not peer reviewed? and specially, how this opinion proves that lockdowns around the world have no effect? he makes absolutely no effort on generalizing his conclusions?

In comparison

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32153-X/fulltext

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.549692/full

https://journals.lww.com/infectdis/Fulltext/2021/01000/Assessment_of_Lockdown_Effectiveness_in_the_Wake.3.aspx

etc.

I feel the need to clarify right now that the point has never that lockdowns are an indiscriminate and perfect measure that will work in every situation, the point is that lockdowns have an effect on the pandemic, and depending on many factors they may be justified and in some situations they have helped.

You see. It is entirely a political decision.

Of course it is a political decision, but your point is not, that is something that can be corroborated with science, lockdowns can be effective, that does not mean they have to be used indiscriminately, specially when it can be predicted (by science) to be more costly than beneficial.

Your point was not that lockdowns may not be adequate, your point was that they were useless, they are not.

0 ( +5 / -5 )

No lies. Calling medical professionals liers just because they express opinions different from yours only shows that there is no open dialogue

Which medial professionals? again, having an opinion that is different is not the problem, the problem is repeating an opinion that can be demonstrated as false. A layman have the excuse of not knowing better, a medical professional have the responsibility of having the best possible information, if he does not that means he is not doing his job as required.

You should not ignore the difference between crude mortality rate, infection death rate and case death rate, which are very different.

None of them are 0.1%, saying any of them are is still mistaken, false.

Saying that “the death rate of 0.1% is much higher because...” makes many of the readers think that contracting the virus means death, which is at least 98.6% far from the truth.

One, quote where did I say that.

Second, being 300% higher (according to you) is something that validly proves that the first percentage is false. If someone jumps from a 1% to 100% they have a terrible problem understanding and they have to work on that. That is not an argument, it would be like saying that using 0.4% to express the risk of death would make some people think that there is no risk at all even for their old diabetic relatives, so they would choose to visit them even if he got a fever and cannot smell a thing. Expressing real percentages is not misleading, and using as an excuse the few people that exaggerate out of proportions anything is not an excuse to use false ones.

0 ( +4 / -4 )

I think AU and NZ show that lockdowns can work but they have to be implemented early. It is way too late for the UK, US and Japan where the virus is now everywhere. We just have to muddle through it and pray to Buddha and Suga to save us.

9 ( +10 / -1 )

February, forget the silly Olympics.

I was watching some expert say the USA would need to vaccinate 1 million a day to get everyone done in this year in the USA.

Now I know not everyone will want to or get it but that would still not be half the population based on the 2 doses needed.

Japan has 126 million people so one would think half that time but it seems some have forgotten that nearly all the vaccines need 2 shots so at first 1 million a day then after about 2 weeks they will need to keep up the 1 million first dose and start adding in those needing a second dose bringing it to 2 million a day if we want to get everyone in Japan vaccinated by the fall of 2021. If they want to actually have the Olympics it is 200 days from now, Japan would have to be vaccinating a minimum of 3 to 4 million people a day once the vaccine arrives and if they can even get that much vaccine in time.

By any mathematical calculations the probability is extremely slim.

0 ( +3 / -3 )

You have simply no idea how that virus affects everything, step by step and exponentially, and therefore can only rely on waiting, high speed uncontrolled vaccines and continued business activities at most possible level, considering only half-hearted pseudo-lockdowns every some weeks when the numbers again exploded , that for an ‘eternity’ or until everyone is sick or dead. And I tell you again and a last time now that this cannot and won’t work at all. You need a time-limited very strict full lockdown for 70 days plus sigma to extinguish this virus and that’s the only way or ‘vaccine’ to get all our normal life back, or at least the rest of it.

-5 ( +0 / -5 )

These lockdowns or any actions that take money away from people/business are doing far more serious damage than the virus itself is doing.

1 ( +5 / -4 )

You need a time-limited very strict full lockdown for 70 days plus sigma to extinguish this virus and that’s the only way or ‘vaccine’ to get all our normal life back, or at least the rest of it.

No thanks and it is too late anyways. Two of my brothers in the States tested positive and had sore throat and headaches for a few days. I am not willing to ruin the livelihood of others to avoid my similar fate. High risk persons however should STAY HOME!

4 ( +7 / -3 )

Not a single organization of experts in health care in the whole world thinks letting the virus "burns itself out" is acceptable, if you have the data to prove them all wrong it would be good to see it, else that is just your mistaken opinion.

At some point the virus will burn it self out. this is known as herd immunity I think. You dont need data to understand this you need a brain.

Also pretending to protect vulnerable lives by preparing 100 ICU units while blaming kabukicho is just that . Letting the virus burns it self out.

-1 ( +4 / -5 )

what a "leader"....

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Poor Suga. Abe bailed as the car was flaming down a steep embankment with no brakes and about to enter a bottomless gorge. He has no chance of getting out of this looking good. Super Dave Osborne comes to mind with his deadly stunts.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

The medical world is also divided about the best way to deal with the pandemic. Pathologists, virologists, and immunologists from around the world have expressed reservations about the way the pandemic is being handled. 

Spot on ! This was and still is the biggest problem with Covid19. From WHO nonsense to political interpretation of statistics and ambiguous definitions. A complete mess.

5 ( +6 / -1 )

Reckless,as ever you are totally spot on.

Abe is on Easy Street while the 'Cold Tuna' is in the melting pot.

Wonder if we get any Suga-no-masks in the future?

1 ( +2 / -1 )

Theres no magic money tree, and the bill for those handouts everyone received in early summer are coming due soon.

Hear this argument whenever it comes to direct stimulus payments (our taxes returned) yet the magic money tree is magically conjured into existence when it comes to farm subsidies,GoTo travel subsidies, Olympic preparations and massive defense industry projects.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

Given that nothing before was at all strict and there were no enforced laws made, what would a State of Emergency mean at all? It’s no wonder Japan is the laughing stick of the world when it comes to COVID-19 measures.... well, Japan and the US.

-1 ( +5 / -6 )

The efficacy of SOE is questionable but nobody knows the right answer.... Well at least we have hope for vaccines

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

It doesn't matter where you are on the issue, either freaking out about the 'rona, not caring at all, or in between. But, if there's something we all can agree is that Suga is a joke of a PM, he is weak and doesn't command any authority. He is such a small man, figuratively speaking.

About the vaccine: お先にどうぞ!

-2 ( +3 / -5 )

Lockdowns saved 3 million lives in the US and 3 million lives in Europe. ( And let’s not forget the survivors with sequels in their lungs. ) But some people still say that a SOE or a lockdown does more harm than good.

You’re asking yourselves the wrong questions, thinking you have the right answers.

In the west, if something failed ( it failed a lot I know ), it wasn’t because of the decision to implement lockdowns. Lockdowns can be effective.

-3 ( +5 / -8 )

Lockdowns saved 3 million lives in the US and 3 million lives in Europe. 

Big if true.

(btw, still waiting to hear about that incredible money tree you were talking about)

-6 ( +3 / -9 )

It is time to lock-down.

-6 ( +3 / -9 )

Vaccinations, good, a step in the right direction, but something needs to be done to mitigate the spread of the virus now

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

What I meant is that they have the money. They just don’t wanna give it to you. So don’t worry about me. Worry about the stupidity and incompetence of this government.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

At some point the virus will burn it self out. this is known as herd immunity I think

You should learn about what herd immunity actually is, it doesn't work that way, didn't with nearly all other viruses such a so-called childhood diseases hasn't worked that way with the "Annual" Flu.

The problem is people think just because the 1918 flu did eventually mutate out that this will do the same.

Very different types of viruses.

-5 ( +2 / -7 )

But Suga hinted it won't be as strict as before and that social and economic activities are unlikely to be halted across the board this time, saying the state of emergency should be implemented "in a limited and focused manner."

Translation: We just say that we are going to have state of emergency, but actually nothing will change and everything will be the same as before. So don't worry you can still take packed train to work and drop in to your favorite Izakaya on the way home...

2 ( +3 / -1 )

You should learn about what herd immunity actually is, it doesn't work that way, didn't with nearly all other viruses such a so-called childhood diseases hasn't worked that way with the "Annual" Flu.

So what you are saying is herd immunity isn't possible with this virus ? Why ? Do you know something we don't ?

This virus will not burn it self out because it will mutate into something new and escape immunity but if we lock the world down until everybody and every mink is vaccinated which will can stop the mutation and the virus wont escape the vaccines ?

I really don't understand what your point is.

Immunity doesn't literally corelate to a dead virus. It means it is dead to us. it does nothing to us! like probably many other known and unknown pathogens.

-1 ( +3 / -4 )

Keep considering until the virus with its 99.9%+ recovery rate burns itself out.

More than 0.1% of the US population have died from Covid-19 yet it is still going strong there...hmmm...

-2 ( +3 / -5 )

So what you are saying is herd immunity isn't possible with this virus ? Why ? Do you know something we don't ?

Apparently I do! I listen to what the experts are saying,

Like with the flu either regular booster shots will be needed or if like the flu new strains vary to far from the one the vaccine now works on then a new version of the vaccine will be needed bro maintain immunity.

This as well as the flu are not like the measles, etc...the vaccine will most likely not be a life time protection after one or two times but will need some form of booster.

At this time no one knows how long immunity will last but it is more likely at most a year or so some says several months others say possibly a few years but not decades and as long as one person has the virus and can pass it on to another person unvaccinated it will live and come back.

That is why experts are all saying it is here to stay and will pop up seasonally like the flu does.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

If I wasn't clear. What I am saying is the false idea of naturally occurring herd immunity will never happen because immunity to this virus is not permanent.

The only way to achieve herd immunity is that a large proportion of the population gets vaccinated (most experts say around 80%) and that this population maintains this by receiving regular boosters shots as will be recommended once we know just how long vaccination immunity last. (At this time no one knows this but we will as things progress).

So if we want to avoid another disaster like we have had in 2020 please get vaccinated once it is available.

And no despite the false belief that this vaccine was to quick and new, it isn't there is 17 years of research based on SARS 1 and that is why this vaccine was possible in such a short time.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

Keep considering until the virus with its 99.9%+ recovery rate burns itself out.

More than 0.1% of the US population have died from Covid-19 yet it is still going strong there...hmmm...

Again false information.

Nowhere in the world is it 99.9% recovery rate, not a single place.

In the best most advanced countries it is at best 98.5% and even that is by most experts wrong as under reporting of deaths is high.

And many seem to confuse percentage of population vs percentage of those infected.

The virus keeps going strong because people are irresponsible, don't follow recommendations, and there are 360 million people in the USA that are all capable of catching the virus and few if any have immunity, so until the vaccine is available for the general public and a large portion of them get vaccinated this will not stop.

Not rocket science just simple common sense.

3 ( +5 / -2 )

@virurex

Thank you for your time to provide simple and factual explanations. I really feel sorry for the ones challenging you just for the sake of it.

6 ( +8 / -2 )

Those who recovered from SARSCoV 17 years ago are still immune to it today, and are also immune to SARSCoV2. Herd immunity in fast approaching.

Please state a source for this and please be a reputable source.

No such thing has been ever stated by any reputable research, and as it is now most evidence by reputable research is showing covid-19 immunity last about 6 months and at that point the level of immunity has dropped.

4 ( +5 / -1 )

What I am saying is the false idea of naturally occurring herd immunity will never happen because immunity to this virus is not permanent.

This isn't true. What is true is there are concerns the virus mutates in a way that might one day likely far in the future might escape immunity.

Naturally obtained immunity via infection and immunity obtained via vaccines really is the same thing. The first cost more lives the second more money.

Neither will prevent infections if the virus mutates to the point you worry about. This hypothetical mutation if ever happens will likely be classified like a different type of corona virus.

The only way to achieve herd immunity is that a large proportion of the population gets vaccinated

And here you are saying herd immunity is possible . What happened to the mutation ?

So if we want to avoid another disaster like we have had in 2020 please get vaccinated once it is available.

Understood! I will be the first in line.

But that unfortunately won't prevent disasters like 2020 from happening again. People just simply don't have the resource s to predict every possible future virus and its impact on our health and a vaccine for it.

What you can do is try and rethink the medical response in a way that is capable of handling epidemics / pandemics without bringing the whole country to a halt.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Thank you for your time to provide simple and factual explanations. I really feel sorry for the ones challenging you just for the sake of it.

Knowing a lot of facts doesn't mean you shouldn't be challenged,especially when your end game is always "lockdown", which has failed miserably in most countries. virusex has basically said the SOE is useless because it is voluntary, even though the details haven't been decided yet. However, the last SOE worked pretty well and was also voluntary, so personally I have some hope for it.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

@n1k1

Please read all what I wrote.

Immunity is not permanent, as all research is now showing, the follow-up on those that had covid-19 are showing the immunity is dropping off 6 months later.

And as I previously wrote this has the probability of ending up like influenza needing slight changes to the vaccine to remain functional each season or 2 as the virus mutate.

This hypothetical mutation if ever happens will likely be classified like a different type of corona virus.

This is already happening, the recent South Africa variant is not only more contagious but is affecting children more severely something the previous strains didn't.

We have all that is needed to have herd immunity even with seasonal influenza if people got their yearly vaccination but at best 50% get it and as consistently repeated by the experts a minimum 70% but more likely 80% vaccination is needed and that needs to be every year.

Just to make this point, in the USA a high influenza vaccination years is just under 50%. Japan is just slightly over 50% nowhere near the 80%.

So people need to stop all the wishing and start getting their regular vaccines yearly or as recommended by the medical community.

And I do get my flu shot early and I will follow the recommendations of medical Science once the Covid-19 vaccine is available.

-5 ( +1 / -6 )

@virusrex

I do not disagree with most of what you pointed out.

Where I do have questions is mutation. This is only one of a handful Corona virus to affect humans, so we do not know exactly how it will mutate.

Already as far as I can count in less than a year we have 8 variants with each one having different effects, the European strain was more deadly than the original one, the latest 2 new strains are more infectious and one is causing more serious illness in children.

So as with everything to do with this virus much is still to be known.

But as far as I can tell the mRNA method of vaccine can be easily modified to adapt to any real possible variant if one is found not to be covered by the present one.

As far as I see it the only way forward is vaccination. Another point is that this will not be the last new virus we are going to see in the near future.

More are being found in Africa, South America, even in Siberia and northern Canada as the permafrost thaws out.

We are heading into the unknown.

-6 ( +1 / -7 )

covid-19 are showing the immunity is dropping off 6 months later

Antibody production drops off at 6 months, that is typical. However, memory lymphocytes last longer, perhaps life long, and upon a second exposure to the virus these can quickly mount a strong defense.

Well, it is easy to get really nice numbers if you lie and replace data or sort every patient at risk of complications outside of your treatment, it is not for nothing that Raoult has been completely disgraced and is facing huge consequences for corroborated scientific malpractice and fraud.

You keep saying that without providing proof. All I could find is that people criticize him for not doing randomized studies (one of your links also said that), which he considers immoral. The numbers I provided are the overall survival rates of his institute. It's not a small clinic, it's a massive institute; they do about 3000 PCR tests daily providing results within hours, and all positive cases are immediately treated.

For months you have made every effort to make covid19 appear a bad as possible, and you just can't accept anyone that can effectively treat covid patients.

-4 ( +3 / -7 )

Logic is something no longer available for some.

Yes, very well said; I couldn't agree more!

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

The numbers I provided are the overall survival rates of his institute.

He himself reported close to 1% fatality rates, even with the sham treatment (maybe because of it PMC7315163), and its facing the end of his career and severe punishment for manipulating his data to make a treatment look much better that it really was, falsified ethical approval, changed the methods on the fly to hide biased selection of the patients, counted patients as successfully treated even if they were never diagnosed as infected, etc. In comparison evidence of the benefit of other drugs like dexamethasone, or the vaccines is much more clear.

The Japanese government has fumbled a lot of things, but fortunately in its exaggerated caution it avoided exposing the patients to a useless treatment that only increased risks to their health. Now, if it only can get rid of the unnecessary red tape with the vaccines on time to make a difference we can still avoid a lot of deaths.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

Readers, please keep the discussion focused on Japan.

He himself reported close to 1% fatality rates, even with the sham treatment

That was a retrospective study submitted in May! I am referring to the current survival rate. Treatments are constantly improving, or at least they should if the are not prevented from using safe and effective drugs. I just hope the Japanese people are treated equally well. But I still worry, especially after the death of the Japanese minister Hata, that the sick might only be treated after they are in serious condition (too late).

-4 ( +1 / -5 )

That was a retrospective study submitted in May! I am referring to the current survival rate.

How about a source? it would not be the first time you misunderstand something, it would be good to see how preventing him from using his false therapy actually reduced the patients mortality rates 10 times, unfortunately it could also be possible he is still treating uninfected people as a way to inflate his survival rates, or that the current survival rate is not as you presented.

Japanese people are treated at this moment according to the best available evidence, but that is only applicable as long as the health services have room to spare, minister Hata was in relative good condition until he was on his way to the hospital, not even noticed he had pneumonia until that point, he was not diagnosed, much less subjected to any treatment. Health professionals cannot do anything for people that do not ask for help, in the same way that they cannot offer safe and effective health measures like vaccines to people that refuse them based on irrational and false fears. Both kind of patients are choosing to risk their health or lives even when correct information is extremely abundant, Hata could not possibly ignore he had high risk of complicating and that he was infected.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

All eyes on Sweden to ultimately grasp first hand how cynical this entire spectrum (social science) is. Most of us are being subjected to a scenario of either freedom or fascism. We are no longer at a point where we can think about it. We are looking at fascism in the eye and we need to look back and not blink. Of course, there are great numbers of the population who will just do what they're told and insist that everyone else does what they're told. So those of us who can see it and start to realize what we're facing, it's down to us to respond.

-2 ( +2 / -4 )

You simply have no idea how the epidemic effects anything, step by step and exponentially, and can thus depend only on waiting, unchecked high-speed vaccinations and continuing commercial operations at the most possible pace, taking into consideration only half-hearted pseudo-lockdowns every few weeks when the numbers erupted again, that for 'eternity' or until everybody is sick or dead. And I'm reminding you again, and now for the last time, that this will and will not succeed at all. You need a very tight full lockdown with a time limit.

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

Ameila Leary

You simply have no idea how the epidemic effects anything, step by step and exponentially, and can thus depend only on waiting, unchecked high-speed vaccinations and continuing commercial operations at the most possible pace, taking into consideration only half-hearted pseudo-lockdowns every few weeks when the numbers erupted again, that for 'eternity' or until everybody is sick or dead.

What do you mean "everybody" is sick or dead? The vast majority does not even notice they have the infection, and the vast majority of those who do have symptoms get over it within a couple of days. The death rate for the thing is 0,03% for those under 70, which is pretty close to zero. So no, "everybody is sick or dead" really means nothing.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

Antiquesaving

In the best most advanced countries it is at best 98.5%

What age group does that refer to? You do realize that the death rate increases rapidly over the age of 70 but is practically zero for young people (which is why it is inexcusable to put Corona patients in old-age homes, as some politicians have done).

Or you citing an average, which is meaningless for the majority of the population?

and even that is by most experts wrong as under reporting of deaths is high.

Got a source for that? My impression is that there is vast incentive for over-reporting. (The NHS actually says so on its site).

1 ( +1 / -0 )

biggest damage to the economy is done by slow long lasting procrastination which most of the sceptics and deniers ask for. Those that are only worried about their loss of money are ones responsible for that loss. If you do not want to do a quick painful but short lasting total lockdown than do not bother doing any partial measures that everyone knows are useless and expensive.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

Koike has expressed concern over the greater burden on medical institutions.

I call bs.

She had time and money to get temporary hospitals built, exclusively for covid-19.

Now ambulances drive and drive, who will take them?

This problem would not be here, if these politicians had given some thought and put a plan in place.

Yammering about Olympics sponsors and games.

Then, the "Go To" fiasco, spreading the "wealth" far and wide, lowering people's guards because why would it be unsafe if the govt. sponsors it?

Lax immigration entry follow up, etc.

Now, when numbers climb, where does the pain and sacrifice fall?

Workers and their businesses.

If you want to close people down, you better consider with the same amount of importance

as placed on the Olympics, putting some monetary support where it needs to go,

to the people you want to shut down.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

Vaccinations to prevent Covid-19 will not start until late February? While almost all other countries are already administering vaccines? Does that make sense?

0 ( +0 / -0 )

How can people actually WANT a full lockdown?

1 ( +1 / -0 )

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