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Abe says way to peace treaty with Russia coming into sight

By Kiyoshi Takenaka

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That's great. Way to speed-up my transfer to the Empire. Frictionless this way.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Abe says way to peace treaty with Russia coming into sight

I guess that's what they were talking about in Trump Towers.

Maybe Trump really will part the waters and all that.

0 ( +4 / -4 )

What, so is Putin going to give away all those islands then?

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

Pukey2 no

0 ( +2 / -2 )

Pukey2 no

So what's the catch. I was under the impression that Japan would not accept anything less than getting ALL the islands.

3 ( +6 / -3 )

Cash for islands?

0 ( +1 / -1 )

"coming into sight" means not happen in the Japanese politics.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Russia does not easily give p land it has claimed. Japan can make a peace treaty with Russia only under one of two conditions: that it cede claims to the Northern Territories, or that it punt this to the future. In neither case is reversion possible.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Big thaw in relations between Japan&Russia is coming into sight in the near future. Good beginning , keep up the momentum to boost mutual ties.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

It is Very nice to read anything that furthers peace. And that gives us hope that we may get there after all.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Abe is going to set up business in Russia, and vice-versa, but the island issue won't be resolved at all. It's just a ruse so that Japan can go back on its word to stand behind the sanctions -- by making it into a bilateral issue. I guarantee Abe will say, "The islands will come into play later, after the money we give (sanctioned) Russia and the new business proposals have time to take effect. It takes time, people."

Evidently it doesn't take long to give Russia money and promise business -- it just takes time to fulfill the promises to the Japanese people, and then give up on them altogether.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

Why the sudden change of stance by Abe? Could it be the result of the meeting with the man who wrote "Art of the Deal" - The man who believes that compromise is the key to all deals?

3 ( +4 / -1 )

History will repeat itself. Doesn't Abe and his cronies remember what happened at the end of WWII when Stalin backstabbed Japan--and all the allies for that matter. Abe is trying to show off to the world that he's in sync with Trump. OMG, an alliance with U.S.-Japan-Russia? I have a feeling Abe will be the one left holding the bag.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Oh well. Did anybody read the recent blurb about all this in the Financial Times. The whole Trump thing makes this a little more tricky because Japan can't rely on the US administration to interpret Putin's offers appropriately. Putin might also feel that he can end isolation even without dealing with Japan seriously. These are the concerns that are going to make negotiations trickier. On the other hand, maybe Putin can make a serious gesture and win points with Japan AND incoming Trump at the same time.

In short, the FT article was making the point that the negotiation space might be stretched a little by the Trump election. That explains WHY Abe has picked up the pace at getting various deals lined up to induce Russia to DO THE RIGHT THING. The probability of Russia coming through with something meaningful is pretty low. I have repeated that opinion quite a bit. It is too bad because I think this is Russia's big chance. And if they blow it, there really will not be an excuse.

One thing I have noticed is a drumbeat of various deals Russia has made with Turkey, India, and China, and now with warming to the Ppines and the US. It is possible that they have stretched the negotiation space too much to the point that it is not constrained on the Russian side anymore. In other words, Russia won't make any deal because they just won't feel the need to do so. And again, if Russia uses that kind of calculation, then it is clear that they were looking at negotiations for the short-term, not the long term. Which means that Japan is better off avoiding a deal anyway.

Abe is making a great effort to make a great deal for a rusty 65 Buick filled with Hillbillies.... the Northern Territories. If Putin and pals do not appreciate that, it is their loss. Maybe they won't regret it now. But they will soon, and for generations thereafter.

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

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