politics

Abe unlikely to tackle hard reforms in next term: economists

18 Comments
By Linda Sieg and Kaori Kaneko

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18 Comments
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He can't tackle any hard reforms, he has used up political capital all over the place with regards to the security issue in the Diet now.

PLUS Abenutics is failing and he is scratching his head wondering why it's failing and has no ideas to change it either.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

The first two arrows were just designed to "shock the heart" if you will and keep the economy rolling while the reforms kicked in.

Without large scale reform, the current policy is akin to zapping a heart patient everytime his or her blockage starts to act up.

5 ( +5 / -0 )

There is the possibility that he never really intended to "reform" anything. It sounds good and keeps the wolves from the door but actions speak louder than words. A fascist, corporatist state and economy has no interest in individual initiative, opinion and rights. It requires everyone to belong to some kind of grouping which the government binds together at the top and dictates to. Many of the reforms outsiders expect would run counter to the tendencies of this totalitarian vision. Sure, without them the economy might falter in a functioning international market but I don't think Abe or indeed many Japanese have any confidence in that as a reliable future, perhaps with good reason in part because anyway Japan has done little in the past to maintain the international market ideal so it is always likely that freeloaders will prevail.

5 ( +5 / -0 )

arrows or boomerangs? How's that "third arrow" holding up anyway, senor tummychuckles?

5 ( +5 / -0 )

Most foreign economists and Japan expats were saying that if he doesn't implement the 3rd arrow, and he probably won't, nothing will change.

Nothing has, except for now the weaker yen has pushed prices up for an already struggling public. As a result, there will be less domestic consumption, and people will be even less apt to get married and have kids because they can't afford it.

Thanks Abe. Thank you for destroying this wonderful country.

5 ( +6 / -1 )

@Aly

Another Big Event Is Sometimes Admitting Certain Useless, Nefarious Tactics.

The current admin seems incapable of being anything BUT totalitarian.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

Abenomics was always an illusion built on two cornerstones: a weak yen policy and an easy money policy. Both policies have reached their limits.

If Abe truly wants to see progress, there will have to tough choices made that would impact many vested interests, including those that support the LDP. That is not something he has the will to do.

His goal is to focus on all of the political objectives that have long been on the wish list of the conservatives while the LDP has the numbers in the Lower and Upper House to allow this to happen. There is not a chance in heck that he will truly focus on any structural changes with regards to the economy at this point.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

Best reform is for Abe to resign.

5 ( +5 / -0 )

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe a rare second consecutive term on Tuesday but economists predict he won’t use that victory to push through bold reforms such as labor market changes that are considered vital for long-term growth.

Instead, Abe, who took office in December 2012 pledging to reboot the economy, will stick to politically palatable policies of government spending and easy money - the first and second “arrows” of his “Abenomics” recipe, economists polled by Reuters said.

And Japan will continue to fall further and futher behind in terms of internay=tional competitiveness. It is a true shame that Abe used the political capital he had coming out of the most recent national elections to push a military agenda, rather than an economic one. His grandfather may very well have been proud of him, but I doubt his grand children will be.

1 ( +5 / -4 )

You don't need to be "an economist" to know this, two-pint Taro down you local pub could tell you the same thing. The biggest problem with the LDP at the moment is that there is no friction among the different factions. Way back when, in the absence of any real opposition parties, the LDP used to split along factional lines and try and keep ahead of one another. However, at the moment there is no real leadership alternative to Mr. Poopy Pants. Indeed, even a token alternative (Seiko Noda) hasn't been able to scrap up enough signatures to complete the registration process to participate in the LDP election. A sad indeed.

5 ( +5 / -0 )

why tackle hard reforms when the status quo is all that is ever needed to stay in power? voters don't really want much change; slow, incremental "tweaks" is preferable to the pain caused by radical changes. and in reality, the LDP, or any political party can't really affect much change. powerful bureaucrats in the finance, meti and other ministries have much more sway on the actual running of gov't.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Fifteen economists who responded to a Reuters poll overwhelmingly said Abe in his next term should put priority on regulatory reform of the labor market and repairing a social security system burdened by a fast-aging population.

Who are these economists? Are they in support of neoliberal austerity policies? If so, this so-called third arrow will be just a shot to the heart of the most vulnerable in society.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Another Big Event Is Sometimes Admitting Certain Useless, Nefarious Tactics.

The current admin seems incapable of being anything BUT totalitarian

Best reform is for Abe to resign.

Preaching to the choir bros.

You don't need to be "an economist" to know this, two-pint Taro down you local pub could tell you the same thing

And that my friend is the heart of the problem. The LDP has NO connection to the average working person. They don't understand their problems. Nor do they care.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Many voters don't know how democracy is supposed to work, and keep voting for LDP because LDP is their team, even though like the economists they know Japan would benefit from structural reforms being enacted. (To be fair, with the DPJ, JCP etc in opposition, they don't have many better options.)

Many other voters are dependent on the LDP government for part of their income.

Probably the structural reforms will not come until the IMF steps into the picture. Until then, Japan will meander along aimlessly.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Another Big Event Is Sometimes Admitting Certain Useless, Nefarious Tactics.

As previously noted, Initially one would have to agree.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Im guessing more defense sales; I dont and cant see the private sector doing anything. The chinese flatliner is probably a short term scare, but really exposes Japans dependancy on the world for its growth. GDP at 1.5 %? zero inflation and the devil in the details China "screwing everything up" that is actually the 4th arrow they were probably counting on. Gambaru nippon does it again; shuts off the world, but so desparetly needs the world to survive and buy its stuff. Should of done what china is doing now; reform instead of using them as an a crutch. As Trump noted, japan buys very little from the U.S. so the U.S. really doesnt need japan but japan desparetly needs and gets access to the U.S. markets. In WW2, japan cleverly sourced allot of what it needed by occupation. In the 80s, she basically did the same thing with cross holding stocks and easy access to money for japan inc. That all failed so now what? The olympics? Tourism? defense sales? . What Ive noticed about japan is an extreme form of economic self isolation and protectionism, making everything in Japan and only buying Japanese. So, everrybody gets a job, just not the job they want. It takes allot of tedious effort to make this stuff, and no imagination needed. So you have a population of obdient servants, but no innovators. Where other countries import and use, without the added headache of nationalism.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Abenomics was always an illusion built on two cornerstones: a weak yen policy and an easy money policy. Both policies have reached their limits.

Yes, yen is weak but if Japan had started an expansionary policy along with other countries after the Great Recession, there would have been no weak yen (and no strong yen before abenomics). Yen is weak, anyway, because dollar is strong against practically all currencies. An easy money policy, yes, but every central bank is struggling as no one wants to borrow as much at this high real (not nominal) rate. That's the zero lower bound issue. If you find it not enough, then flooding more with easy money is the morally wrong but economically right answer on the monetary side. On the structural issues, pushing women into the labor market would be the single most important factor and he should build more nurseries and change gender skewed tax system.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

I'm getting tired of hearing about Abenomics the whole plan has came off its hinges and is old news like Abe and his party.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

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