BOJ minutes: Economy, prices on track with forecasts


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Really? Did the 0.9% growth from last year meet forecasts? Actually, last year's forecast called for 2.9% growth. I guess any prediction will be corrrect if you use a 60% margin of error.

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Members also agreed that the sales tax hike next month in Japan will not derail the economy and that risks posed by overseas economies have receded.

brushing off data showing weak growth

As Brigadier General Jack D. Ripper said, "when they realize there is no possibility of recalling the Wing, there will be only one course of action open. Total commitment."

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" I guess any prediction will be corrrect if you use a 60% margin of error."

I think you're very generous. The margin of error is likely larger.

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Stay positive people, things are looking up, and if it is all a lie, we'll all be dead sooner or later anyway, no point in having sleepless nights over it.

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But, of course, everything tracks. What would the people say if the BOJ tells them the truth; that the economy will soon be crashing?

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Don't think people really understand the difference between forecasts and expectations, though it was definitely a miss.

Markets shrugged the data off since it is largely expected - everyone already knew what generally will happen once the sales tax hits, so it's largely been priced into markets. Further stimulus is expected, so there's always that soft cushion.

What's important to note is not the gdp growth number, which is still important, but the fact that both consumption AND investments picked up. That is why the forecasts were weak, but still on target since that was the goal. This coincides w/ the increased forecasts in capex.

Overall, would say that ppl should learn to understand what actually happened rather than say, oh, GDP slowed down, Japan is doomed.

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Does anyone realize that governments around the world lie about economic numbers - inflation, growth, employment, etc?

As a Canadian, I will cite how the Bank of Canada distorts real price increases. I am sure the Japanese Central Bank operates the same way.

From a 2008 speech by Bank of Canada Deputy Governor, John Murray, I will cite the following:

'Measures of core inflation are usually calculated in one of two ways. The "exclusion method" is the most straightforward and, as the name suggests, involves excluding the prices of those goods and services that typically display more than a predetermined amount of variability.'

Plain English translation: When we measure inflation, we take out any item that would increase the reported inflation rate more than we want it to.

John Murray then continues:

'The "reweighting method," in contrast, doesn't exclude the prices of any goods and services. Instead, it assigns a weight to each component that is inversely related to its volatility. In other words, more volatile price series are given a lower weight.

Plain English translation: When prices on certain items go up too much, we give it less importance, as a percentage, in our calculation of the inflation rate. Inflation will then stay in the range that we want it to.

The public is SO DUMB that even when these guys admit to what they are doing in their speeches, nobody objects. And journalists are so dishonest, they dont call out officials when they are up to these wrongs.

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Plain English translation: When we measure inflation, we take out any item that would increase the reported inflation rate more than we want it to.

Not even close.

The products excluded from CPI are excluded because their extreme volatility would make any figure calculated using them would be statistically meaningless. I don't expect armchair experts who make up 95% of the posters on this site to understand the legitimacy behind economic statistical calculations, but there it is.

The public is SO DUMB

I'm not convinced you're anything special.

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Banks don't control economies! The supply of labour,weather,technological innovations etc do. Already I have seen an imbalance in retail orders in Japan this month. I can the numbers being skewed this month. Next month will see a massive slump! The weaker yen is going to hit the Japanese in their pockets as they pay more for oil,food,clothes etc. The trouble with the BOJ is that the members create money out of thin air! They have nil experience of real world business.

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Research the US Treasury report which was just released, detailing foreign holdings of US Treasuries by various countries. The US treasury released numbers in the morning that detailed Chinese, Japanese, Russian, Belgium etc. holdings of US Treasuries, and then, just 3 hours later, they changed the numbers and re-reported what they claimed were the actual amounts. There is no way the numbers were 'mistakenly' reported incorrectly. This was done on purpose. The US government has Trillions of dollars to run itself, yet it cant even report the amount of debt that foreign nations purchased in a 30 day window. How can they possibly get these numbers wrong, by billions of dollars, per country?

Why dont you admit that governments around the world, including Japan, purposely play with economic indicators so as to benefit themselves and those that are connected to them?

What is in it for you to defend the world's central planners?

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