Brexit shock more bad news for Abe

@kurisupisu

Did you get that from the Daily Mail?

Great news that the UK will regain its independence.

Sorry that it gives you a problem, Abe-san.

Close the door on your way out.

Byeeeeeeeeeeeee

Bertiewooster for PM!!

Economists are notorious for having differing views. Shop around and you will find one or more who says something that agrees with your particular ideological prejudices.

I have shopped around. All the big names denounce abenomics and have denounced it from the beginning. Please name me one reputable economist who has said Abe's policies were going to work. I genuinely am curious to see the reasoning behind it.

I have looked at what heavy weight economists have said about the sales tax. Some have said Abe would be a fool if he did not raise the sales tax. Others equally prominent have said he would be a fool if he raised the sales tax

Please quote names as I have. Who exactly did you look at?

Serrano, have a look at this link and change the dollar to UK pounds and on the left hand side click on the 1w for 1 week and it will show you the exchange rate the day after the referendum http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=JPY&view=1W

"Britain’s vote to leave the European Union sent the yen soaring"

This is ridiculous that a relatively few people with the power to manioulate currency exchange rates can ruin things for the vast majority.

He also is an American professor at Temple University in Tokyo and an author. He has written a number of books and writes regularly for The Japan Times and other publications. He has an MA in international affairs and a PhD in history, both from Columbia University which is a VERY reputable institution.

All very true, but I too have a PhD in history from a very reputable institution, one that was ranked at the very top of US history departments when I was a grad student. That does not, however, qualify me to comment on brain surgery, astrophysics, or economic and monetary policy.

Most half decent economists have. Take Gerald Celente, Peter Schiff, Kyle Bass, and Edward Harris. All heavyweight economists, and they all have condemned Abe and his policies.

Economists are notorious for having differing views. Shop around and you will find one or more who says something that agrees with your particular ideological prejudices. I have looked at what heavy weight economists have said about the sales tax. Some have said Abe would be a fool if he did not raise the sales tax. Others equally prominent have said he would be a fool if he raised the sales tax.

The irony is people dumping the pound and buys out yen as a safe have have the negative effect as well......

Let's wait and see how it goes next week.

Cheers

Since UK never converted its currency, even if now leaves the EU I don't see how can Japan consider England responsible for an economic damage. Nothing at all will change for Japan.

Keika

Read the news recently? EU wants the official declaration ASAP like within next week and start the exit negotiations straight after. They are not going to wait till October for a new PM.

Also looks like there is a signature collection consisting of over 1 million people to redo the referendum as the turnout was below 75% and didn't reach a 60% majority result. Looks like some voters changed their minds about the votes they cast too.

EU is tired of the trouble child aka the UK and it's moods and demands.

Let's wait and see how it goes next week.

Your only tariff-free within the EU. the EU is a much larger entity than the UK now and when it comes to trade negotiations they'll have far more trading powers over the UK.

No country has left the EU , there's only been a vote to leave and that vote won.

The problem now is, who is going to negotiate the divorce. Absolutely nothing is going to happen until a new leader is sworn-in, in October. Cameron will not be in the room when the 27 meet to try punish him to make a move of exit NOW.Effectively it's a caretaker PM until October. The currency will continue to do what currencies do. Companies will have to restructure and jobs will be lost. The Leave (uneducated ~Voters) are stunded by what they have done and the losses they have incured. The open boarder between North Ireland & the South is going to be a major concern between Ireland & the EU and guess what any British person who has lived outside the UK for more than 2 years and is bringing a spouse & child home, the Visa entry fee to live in the UK is £72,500 and £6000 for any additional child.

And to all those Japanese factories in the UK. Congratulations! Your products are 20% more competitive!

Not if those factories are mainly assembling products from imported parts. Their costs have just soared.

Over the last past 6 months Ive watched the yen drop from 180 to the pound to 155 and drop to 135 yesterday, this is going to hurt me when I come on holiday, so what affect is it going to have on the Japanese tourism industry?

wtfjapan.

Why would the EU agree to 0 tariffs on a member that's just left and won't be paying their way within the EU anymore, I certainly wouldnt. This is the exact reason why the big manufacturers in the UK wanted to stay in the EU, now theyll be tariffed like any other non-EU country it may be much better for them to move UK manufacturing into the EU meaning the loss of 1000s of jobs.

One blunder after another, you just can't help it can you?

Duhhhh Norway.......Duhhh Iceland......Duhh Georgia....Duhh Liechtenstein.

All the 3 mentioned above are members of the European Economic Area (EEA) which are all governed by the free movement of goods, services, and capital.

What makes you think Britain be any different, especially since if it is excluded from the Euro markets, the EU will lose 20% of its existing GDP

And to all those Japanese factories in the UK.Congratulations! Your products are 20% more competitive! LOL yet no the UK is leaving they'll be tariffs on their goods just like any other non EU country. Your only tariff-free within the EU. the EU is a much larger entity than the UK now and when it comes to trade negotiations they'll have far more trading powers over the UK. To think the Uk will get the same free tariffs on their good going into the EU you'll be sadly shocked. Why would the EU agree to 0 tariffs on a member that's just left and won't be paying their way within the EU anymore, I certainly wouldnt. This is the exact reason why the big manufacturers in the UK wanted to stay in the EU, now theyll be tariffed like any other non-EU country it may be much better for them to move UK manufacturing into the EU meaning the loss of 1000s of jobs. The UK economy will need the EU economy far more now for trade than visa versa

bullfighterJun. 25, 2016 - 12:01PM JST

Not obvious why Jeff Kingston would be asked about this. He is a specialist on East Timor. There are scores of British bankers and stockbrokers in Japan who can be expected to have vastly more expertise in this area than Kingston.

And most of them say exactly the same as Kingston that Abenomics is a dead duck in the water.

I think we are saying the same thing john san. I said in my post that not long ago 'I was getting close to jpy100 for 1 aud now its down to jpy75." which is correct. Today 1aud gets you jpy76 whereas the same 1 aussie dollar coin was worth almost jpy95/100 a while ago.

All good, I think I confused you with my aud ;)

Not obvious why Jeff Kingston would be asked about this. He is a specialist on East Timor.

He also is an American professor at Temple University in Tokyo and an author. He has written a number of books and writes regularly for The Japan Times and other publications. He has an MA in international affairs and a PhD in history, both from Columbia University which is a VERY reputable institution. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Kingston

The only reason I can see for asking Kingston is because he is guaranteed to give an anti-Abe sound bite.

Most half decent economists have. Take Gerald Celente, Peter Schiff, Kyle Bass, and Edward Harris. All heavyweight economists, and they all have condemned Abe and his policies.

Have you considered the possibility that things might have been worse in the absence of his policies?

No.

Only for unskilled workers. And, the bar for being let in as a “skilled worker” is very low as exemplified by what we get in the way of Ingurishu teachers.

Pay peanuts Get monkeys

12 months ago it was Y77 = $1 USD

12 months ago, it was JPY123 = USD1.

AUD yesterday the Yen was Y130 = $1 AUD

Yesterday it was around JYP75 = AUD$1

goldorak: your reading your graphs backwards. The Yen close yesterday at Y98 = $1 US dollar. 12 months ago it was Y77 = $1 USD and with the AUD yesterday the Yen was Y130 = $1 AUD. July last years it was Y105 = $1 AUD. A 20% plus increase in the value of the Yen to the USD and the AUD over the last 12 months. This will hurt future exports and visiting budget tourism which in only 4% of the GDP.

Everyone seems to be working harder these days... but things just seem to get financially tighter every few years due to some event elsewhere in the world...

A new class: The working poor.

“In terms of Abenomics, it was already dead in the water. This will certainly sink it a bit further,” said Jeffrey Kingston, director of Asia studies at Temple University’s Japan campus.

Not obvious why Jeff Kingston would be asked about this. He is a specialist on East Timor. There are scores of British bankers and stockbrokers in Japan who can be expected to have vastly more expertise in this area than Kingston. The only reason I can see for asking Kingston is because he is guaranteed to give an anti-Abe sound bite.

Largely failed? Pray tell just what about Abenomics has been successful?

Have you considered the possibility that things might have been worse in the absence of his policies?

Abe San can't be surprised since Japan's immigration policy is tighter than a kamo's butt!

Only for unskilled workers. And, the bar for being let in as a “skilled worker” is very low as exemplified by what we get in the way of Ingurishu teachers.

The result of the referendum in Britain is not a fault of Abe. Do people who criticize Abe here think if DPJ rule had continued, Japan would have been better off?

Indeed.

Abenomics had already failed long bore the Brexit vote. He's just looking for something else to blame instead of blaming himself and his economists for their short-sighted and naive economic recovery plan.

Precisely where is Abe blaming anything on Brexit? I haven't heard him saying anything that British and American commentators have not been saying.

Great news that the UK will regain its independence. Sorry that it gives you a problem, Abe-san. Close the door on your way out. Byeeeeeeeeeeeee

Puerile comment by someone looking for an excuse to bash Abe. Did you happen to notice how close the vote was? 48.1% favored remain in the EU; 51.9% favored leaving. In Scotland the vote to remain was 62%. In Northern Ireland 55.7% voted to remain.

It may be Scotland that will say “Byeeeeeeeeeeeee” to the UK.

There are many good reasons for being critical of Abe. Your is, however, not one of those reasons.

Hope the voters can now get rid of that dead in the water politician (party) and give the country a wind of changes, but I am not holding my breath for it because unfortunately Japanese do not elect their PM directly therefore it does require a lot more energy locally at the base to see anything moving at the top of the pyramid.

Generally in parliamentary systems of the so-called Westminster type, the people do not directly elect the PM. Japan and the UK are both “Westminster systems.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westminster_system

Strictly speaking, the US president is not directly elected either.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ElectoralCollege(United_States)

There have been four US presidents who did not receive the majority of the popular vote.

The good news for Abe is that he can continue to avoid taking responsibility for anything; he can blame it all on Britain and say, "shouganai".

“In terms of Abenomics, it was already dead in the water. This will certainly sink it a bit further,”

Hope the voters can now get rid of that dead in the water politician (party) and give the country a wind of changes, but I am not holding my breath for it because unfortunately Japanese do not elect their PM directly therefore it does require a lot more energy locally at the base to see anything moving at the top of the pyramid.

Yes indeed, Bertie!

Japan can control the recession by creating demand for its product abroad. The safest way to invest abroad by setting up manufacturing base. This way it would also be able to take advantage of strong yen. Glaring example is Suzuki Motor ( SMC )who has set up big factories in India. Lot of machines and raw material have been and is being regularly being imported from Japan. Most of the vendors of SMC have also set up plants in India which has further increased the demand for Japanese products. Not only this, consequently thousands of Indians visit Japan for training, technical discussion and commercial negotiation and hence give boost to tourism Current valuation of investment which SMC made 25 Years ago is more than 400 times and today SMC which perhaps ranks Fifth or sixth among Japanese automotive industry is profitable because of its Indian operations alone

If Japan wants to get rid of decades old recession , it has to expand its manufacturing base abroad as fast as possible

Great news that the UK will regain its independence.

Sorry that it gives you a problem, Abe-san.

Close the door on your way out.

Byeeeeeeeeeeeee

"Japan’s policymakers worry the unwelcome rise in the Japanese currency will hurt exports and drive the economy back toward recession."

Will also hurt J tourism big time just when foreigners started to see Japan as an affordable holiday destination. Forget the 20M tourists/year if the yen remains strong. Not that long ago (feels like ages though) i was getting close to jpy100 for 1 aud now its down to jpy75. Unbelievable. We abroad who have ties in japan are in wait and see mode right now.

Obviously the exit affects the entire world, especially for those that are wealthy and powerful because it changes the entire "balance" which they orchestrated in the name of world economic stability and future prosperity. In essence the entire Euro placed much of the participating countries that were socialized for the benefit of the rich and wealthy siphoning and draining wealth from the productive nations to the less productive by "flow" of goods within the system structured so that the powerful and wealthy can continue to gain more wealth and power at the expense of the working population. The central control of money and finance so far had "assured" the preservation of that structure and system.

That structure as with the UN was designed for the benefit older population of the wealthy and powerful and the young, disregarded and the exploited have awakened to their situation and have decided to take back their personal and social responsibility for survival.

As for Abenomics, it has little to do with Brexit other than was affected by it as with every other nation in the world that worked the existing structure and system so far so "convenient." with the slight change in "balance" and "order" due to Brexit, Abenomics will change to "adjust" as with every other economy in the world.

There will be negative and positive affect from Brexit economically as well as politically.

For the media to attack Abenomics as being bad news, it is a matter of perspective.

For those that are not satisfied with the expected brwoth and prosperity they can blame and faul Abenomics as not having the results as desired and try to force another kind of system and plan.

For those that have some semblance of expectation and faith in Abenomics, they will demand change and adjustment.

The problem with our societies today is that everyone "expects" an economy to "change" or the effects of a special plan and programs in Abenomics to show results almost immediately. as with the rapid changes in technology Such was the case with Obamanomics and Obamacare.

However, most are aware that it takes "time" to implement as well as coordinate and work the system to get some recognizable results. Men are not robots and machines, so it takes time. To make matters more complicated, every person has his/her skill-sets and abilities that are different with sets of ideals, opinions, methods, techniques as well as attitude and priorities toward everything.

So it will takes some time for adjustment to Brexit by all people and economies. It took 40 years for European Union to come to this point and still it has major problems and hurdles to overcome. It took that long for English people to say that they had enough with Euro. Many may still follow the same route.

There is a difference between "equality" and "fairness". There are much more differences in what people view as "wellness", "happiness" and "a life worth living". It is not all fun and laughter with free money to spend.

The Yen has increase in value by 20% to the USD over the year without the fall out of Brexit. You can add another 5% by Monday when the markets opens. Like it has out perform gold over the year. The Yen was value at .77 USD in july last year, today .99 USD. So all the Japanese Panama accounts holders have had a great year. Yes the rich just keep getting filthy rich while the minimum wage earners has gone backwards.

If the powers that be here realized this as everyone else does, they might be able to move on and do somethinig possible instead of clinging desperately to the floatsam and trying to rebuild the ship.

They know this, but the worse things get, the more they will be able to spend to try to keep things going. They are like a sadistic doctor who makes his patient more ill so as to squeeze out more money for more severe treatments.

If they told people the truth, and explained just how bad things are, and how much of hardship genuine reforms would cause, the people woukd not hear of it. The powers-that-be would be tossed out of office, and lose the key to the public's purse. The people want to be lied to, and they always vote for those who tell them what they want to hear. As much as we criticise the likes of Abe, and their inability to improve things, the people have to realize that they put him in office, and failures of the government are caused by failures of the people, who can be made to believe that it is possible to get something for nothing, or less than it's true cost. Those costs are adding up, and it is the people who are responsible for the bill, not the liars they elect.

Because Abe's only policies have ever been currency manipulation to help big exporters, and yen-printing to gift money to his own support base. The Nikkei has fallen apart, costing a fortune to the government due to Abe increasing the exposure of pension funds. There is a huge cash shortfall due to that stupid idea, and the yen had been strengthening anyway, regardless of events in Europe. One poster (I think it was farmboy) called this several years ago, when many like me thought the yen would weaken forever. Brexit hasn't wrecked Abe's policies, Abe's policies were already a wreck. Here's hoping for Abexit sometime soon.

This only shows what a crazy financial system the world has excepted as normal! Countries economies should NOT collapse simply because the UK decided to leave the EU or the tiny islands of Greece has financial issues.

Looks like the British people is still the smartest people around... They see an out of control EU train heading for the cliff and decides it is time to get off...

Just like they decided to join China as a founding member of the "NEW BANK".... regardless of what USA or Japan does and now it reaping the rewards of being able to influence China from within....

Basically, they really understand the Psyche of the Chinese... "$$$$"...

“In terms of Abenomics, it was already dead in the water. This will certainly sink it a bit further,”

If the powers that be here realized this as everyone else does, they might be able to move on and do somethinig possible instead of clinging desperately to the floatsam and trying to rebuild the ship.

Shouldn't do anything stupid out of desperation. With other countries as Scotland, France,Denmark crying for referendum who knows when the Brexit dust will settle. Better to just wait and see until clearer direction is established. Currency intervention now is just throwing money down the drain.

“In Japan, while we can expect to see a temporary surge in the value of the yen, the UK’s decision could also bring a halt to the economic recovery that had been underway,"

What economic growth? There has been no private sector economic growth in Japan during Abenomics if you subtract deficit-spent, public sector spending (stimulus spending, "fiscal spending," record govenrment budgets and supplementary budgets) Japan has never really come out of recession.

All of us here already know that Abenomics was "dead in the water," and blaming the UK for stopping further lack of growth is disingenuous, to say the least.

@Blattamexiguus "Cue Abe blaming the complete failure of Abenomics on the Brexit vote." I agree - I was immediately thinking the same.

Brexit shock more bad news for Abe

Good

Abenomics had already failed long bore the Brexit vote. He's just looking for something else to blame instead of blaming himself and his economists for their short-sighted and naive economic recovery plan, which, after four years, has not achieved a flipping thing except, line the pockets of his cronies at the expense of the rest of the population. What happened to all your promises Abe? Increased child care and family payments, salary increases and many more campaign promises that have failed to come to the table. He's just a whimpy liar.

The result of the referendum in Britain is not a fault of Abe. Do people who criticize Abe here think if DPJ rule had continued, Japan would have been better off? Nope! I am not very much worried about the temporary surge of yen. A real threat is the surge of selling of yen which heightens interest rate and the government of Japan will have a trouble in paying the interest of the government bond.

Britain has only "voted" to leave the EU,they're NOT gone yet, they now have to negotiate the divorce which could take a couple of years or possibly longer before they trigger the actual clause to withdraw.

As a consumer here in Japan , I'm saying thank you Abe for the sales tax rise delay , i've lost on the swings but have gained on the roundabout

Perhaps the only silver lining of the ''Brexit'.

So what they are saying is more QE so that prices rise EVEN MORE and the population has to cut back on spending EVEN MORE leading to EVEN MORE deflation...Its a vicious cycle brought on by the LDP. Boot that Jackass Abe out and lets get someone in who actually knows something about economics. Now is not the time for austerity (which is what QE is a form of actually). Raise the minimum wage, put more saftey nets in for the working class and, you will see the public spend. We need a robust domestic economy to weather out the BRexit storm. Remember, this isn't over. When the other parts of the UK break up from England we will see even more volatility in the market. NOt to mention the volatility if Trump gets elected as well. Dark days coming people and we need to be prepared.

What we don't need is more of the same QE-BS from a limp noodle like Abe and the LDP

Hey Abe, take a cue from the Brits...leave! We don't need you and your policies.

The UK will try to reduce immigration from the EU, probably with a points-based system like Australia's. It means giving priority to high-skilled workers and blocking entry to low-skilled ones. Many jobseekers from the EU may be told to leave. The rules for family reunions may get tougher. What the UK can start doing immediately is tighten the rules for migrant benefits. Brexit will undoubtedly boost the anti-EU, anti-immigration parties in some other EU countries and it may also inspire some countries to hold their own referendums on EU membership.

Why did The UK's people vote to leave?

Ans: millions of immigrants

Surely, that hasn't escaped the attention of the Japanese people nor it's politicians?

Abe San can't be surprised since Japan's immigration policy is tighter than a kamo's butt!

And to all those Japanese factories in the UK.

Congratulations!

Your products are 20% more competitive!

I bought many stocks yesterday. Such a good chance does not come often for long time investors. Thank you very much.

Anything would have crumbled the Abenomics house of cards

Abenomics has been tried twice before, in the immediate wake of the Bubble back in the 90s, and with Koizumi in the early oughts.

And it will be tried again.

But the formula has largely failed. The central bank’s aggressive money-printing has failed to accelerate inflation, and anemic economic growth has discouraged firms from raising wages and households from spending.

Largely failed? Pray tell just what about Abenomics has been successful?

Cue Abe blaming the complete failure of Abenomics on the Brexit vote.

Anything would have crumbled the Abenomics house of cards

I can never get a break!

Leave.