China pushes for rival trans-Pacific trade deal as TPP talks remain stuck

I just can't see a PRC centric FTA in work. To most it will be so loop sided that no nation would be interested in signing.

Let the trade wars begin!

SamuraiBlueAPR. 30, 2014 - 03:38PM JST I just can't see a PRC centric FTA in work. To most it will be so loop sided that no nation would be interested in signing.

Such pessimism. I think if they can be more agreeable than Japan America and the other TPP nations might just skip Japan altogether. Who wants to sign a free trade agreement with a nation with a shrinking population, production and market?

To most it will be so loop sided that no nation would be interested in signing.

just like japan trade agreements?

@igloobuyer - Yeah, it''s much more preferable to have a TPP with a nation that conducts business based upon party nepotism, bribery, and jailing anyone in business who gets in the way - and a refusal to hold itself to any international standards, currency manipulation, and scaring the bejesus out of everyone in the Western Pacific with hairy chested territorial and resource grabs. What could possibly go wrong?

Not to worry. Japan will not be invited.

SecularBeast

It is much more preferable to have a nation with explosive growth, promising market and ever rising demand for food and commodities. According New Zealand experience, NZ GDP has risen.Unemployment has fallen. Export has sky rocketed after signing TPP with PRC a few years ago.

Due to the enormous demand from PRC new born babies, NZ dairy industry has roared like wild beast and it has become the envy of Market hungry South Pacific nations. On the contrast, Japanese new born babies are so low for generating the meaningful trade and business for South Pacific. Australia is also enjoying the commodities export to PRC and hopeful for following NZ success.

China is the irresistible market, land of opportunity and engine of the growth for Asia. Japan is no longer in good old days of 1970s and 1980s.It is less important for trade concession, market and tourism with aging society on the contrast with hey days.

TPP with the U.S.A. or a Free Trade Agreement with China?

Hmmmm . . .

The Devil or the Deep Blue Sea?

igloobuyerApr. 30, 2014 - 05:27PM JST Such pessimism. I think if they can be more agreeable than Japan America and the other TPP nations might just skip >Japan altogether. Who wants to sign a free trade agreement with a nation with a shrinking population, production and >market?

Who wants to sign a free trade agreement with a country that uses trade as a political weapon? Or has no appreciation for he rule of international law?

But the US-led trade talks have become hung up on issues related to Japan’s tightly guarded auto and agricultural sectors.

Time to move on without Japan. Japan has had a chance to see the "big picture" here, and find a way to get past their traditional/parochial issues. But as usual, they have failed miserably -- refusing to change and instead trying to bully folks into a bad treaty. Can't slow down Asian progress because of some old, inefficient rice farmers.

I have to admit. THIS MADE ME LAUGH. As if anyone in the South China Sea would ever trust China? Or as if anyone in their right mind would ever trust CHINA PERIOD!!! LMFAO. Oh, the humor in this is amazing.

SecularBeast

@igloobuyer - Yeah, it''s much more preferable to have a TPP with a nation that conducts business based upon party nepotism, bribery, and jailing anyone in business who gets in the way - and a refusal to hold itself to any international standards, currency manipulation, and scaring the bejesus out of everyone in the Western Pacific with hairy chested territorial and resource grabs. What could possibly go wrong?

Nice post and thumbs up !

China cannot be trusted and free trade would mean bullying, the sale by them of illegal products used in manufacture as they are already doing in a lot of cases, and the use of force anytime it had a disagreement that it was too belligerent about to settle amicably

No thanks china buy everyone else's ore and resources but we don't need more crappy goods from you, we are already flooded with the rubbish you produce.

It would be nicer actually if trade was stopped with china until it matured and became a contributing member of the world community instead of an Ogre trying to push everyone else around.

OssanAmerica,

Who wants to sign a free trade agreement with a country that uses trade as a political weapon? Or has no appreciation for the rule of international law?

Exactly.

And this is why the TPP won't go through.

It's trying to fit a square peg into a round hole.

OssanAmerica: "Who wants to sign a free trade agreement with a country that uses trade as a political weapon? Or has no appreciation for the rule of international law?"

Who'd have thought you could speak of Japan so eloquently? Well done. You're right. Let China sign agreements and get on with it while Japan stands in the dust because they refuse to drop tariffs on rice and car parts. Well said, sir! Let Japan come begging in a decade after it's become the 6th world economy and with the biggest debt of any modern nation with 400% of it's GDP being debt.

smithinjapan,

I thought he was talking about the U.S.A.

But if the cap fits . . .

SecularBeastAPR. 30, 2014 - 06:57PM JST @igloobuyer - Yeah, it''s much more preferable to have a TPP with a nation that conducts business based upon party nepotism, bribery, and jailing anyone in business who gets in the way - and a refusal to hold itself to any international standards, currency manipulation, and scaring the bejesus out of everyone in the Western Pacific with hairy chested territorial and resource grabs. What could possibly go wrong?

Um, China already has a number of successful trade agreements and those countries (including Japan) are profiting quite nicely thank you. It's got nothing to do with you or anyone else's pre-conceived distrust and hatred of China. Its commerce and if you want to do well in it you've got to have growth. Japan does not have growth, it's on a path of shrinking. We might not like it, but that's the way it's going. Japan is becoming less and less important in many areas, not least in trade.

igloobuyerApr. 30, 2014 - 11:54PM JST Um, China already has a number of successful trade agreements and those countries (including Japan) are profiting >quite nicely thank you. It's got nothing to do with you or anyone else's pre-conceived distrust and hatred of China. Its >commerce and if you want to do well in it you've got to have growth. Japan does not have growth, it's on a path of >shrinking. We might not like it, but that's the way it's going. Japan is becoming less and less important in many areas, >not least in trade.

Political risk is a basic tenet of commerce when talking of International Business, It has been taught in business schools since Venezuela nationalized Esso's assets back in the 1950s. Today the "China Risk" exists because of he manner in which China has used trade as a weapon to support their political and diplomatic agendas. This is considered a big no-no in developed countries. When you stop to consider Japan, with 1/10th the population of China having been an OECD member for 50 years, and accounting for 10% of total global trade back in 1986, and China only having attained that level in 2010, Japan "losing" any importance is still far ahead of most countries on this planet. And while you gloat over Japan losing importance, China is headed towards a bubble burst itself, after having burned all the good will it established for two decades of the "peaceful rise" lie.

Well Japan is no longer as worthy trade partner as it used to be. As mentioned above, it is trying to protect its rice farmers and auto producers + it has shrinking population and low economic growth. China has corrupted politics. Other contries don't see China as a trustworthy partner. However it has more dynamic economy than Japan.

Both countries are unlikely to change their ways, however I hope perceived threat from China + US pressure make Japan to abide with other Pacific countries.

Let China sign agreements and get on with it while Japan stands in the dust because they refuse to drop tariffs on rice and car parts

Car parts smith??

In any case, Japan already has EPA with majority of the members of APEC so this is essentially a redudancy effort by China to present themselves as "relavant" as the focus is on the current TPP.

A trade agreement as in "if you don't like our trade wait until you meet our navy?"

Asia-Pacific Free Trade Agreement (FTAAP)...... So, Australia and New Zealand are not included?

Unfortunately Obama tries to bully Japan into putting the traditional rice farmers out of business, but of course things don't happpen in a unipolar vacuum anymore, PRC relishes the chance to step in an exclude the USA.

if USA pushes rice sales to Japan, I hope Japan will export Instant Cup Of Rice to USA. Instant Ramen are not from Japan. Nisshin in Irvine sells in USA. I doubt very much if USA can push exporting made-in-USA cars to Japan.

Remember China unilaterally cut off rare earth metals at a whim's notice. They can do things like that, business deals be damned.

When USA can not push Japan to its will at TPP talks, China came out of Asian economic cooperation excluding none Asian countries. If China can convince Japan and other Asian countries, China might succeed.

As I was reading this, really weird future material for South Park leaped out at me.

@BertieWoosterAPR. 30, 2014 - 08:39PM JST TPP with the U.S.A. or a Free Trade Agreement with China?

Hmmmm . . .

The Devil or the Deep Blue Sea?

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I think it is about time Japan disassociate with Devil and Deep Blue Sea. Always follow the ;leader.

In March 2014, WTO ordered China to lift it restriction on the export of it rare earth. What do you think China did? They going to appeal the WTO ruling, so what are they talking about the Trans pacific trade deal? At the same time, they not even play by the rule. Seriously!

@It"S MEMAY. 01, 2014 - 04:07AM JST Nissin is a Japanese company and invented cup ramen. Next thing you will tell us that PEZ, Swarovski and Glock are American too. Lol.

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Nissin does not export Ramen from Japan to USA. It has divisions in Gardena CA and Irvine CA. Top Ramen brand is manufactured in Gardena and Maruchan brand is in Irvine. Again, it does not export from Japan. Just like Japan Inc USA branches, it create the product in USA and market in USA. Walmart, Safeway owned grocery chains carry. Top Ramen is about 12 for $1. So, they are very popular in USA.

d

In either case – American version of trade bloc or Chineseversion, one thing is pretty much given: Japan is the pure net structure loser in the end.

Why, here the highlights. 1. Japan’s population is rapidly going gray and the birth rate continues going south. 2. Japan’s domestic consumption is dwindling because lack of risking taking consumers combined with hiked tax rate. 3. Abe & co will again to hike consumption tax in 2015, which may further cool the spending in private sectors. 4. Japan is losing innovation edge amid the fast pace of globalization (i.e American car companies are eating Japanese lunch in the US, and China) a. 5. Japan’s young generation is poorly prepared to compete in the international human talent markets. 6. Lack of natural resources makes Japan increasingly depend on outside world, any armed conflict in Mideast and Asia would put huge burden on Japan’s economy. 7. Hostile neighbors would affect the Japan’s trade volume. 8. Japan’s crushing debts will hamper Japanese economy, even with the tax hike, Japan’s debt may still grow in next decade as the more and more elder people needs adults care. 9. Japan’s protected domestic markets hurt direct foreign investment. 10. A war with Russia or China will surely bankrupt Japan.

PRC mentioning of Free Trade Agreement just doesn't make sense when they only allow introduction of certain products into the nation like automobile under a strict regulation to develop a joint venture between a nationally owned company for a foreign corporate entity to penetrate the market.

Under such regulations the only products that could be imported would be natural resources in which mainland china needs anyways.

PRC is still in many sense a developing country which does not have the technological lead in various field making it not possible to open up her market without losing a large portion to imports so a true FTA is just not possible with developed nations making it a very lop-sided agreement as I originally posted.

An FTA with China would be much more risky than one with Japan, technology grabs as well as destruction of domestic industry are probably ranked high up there on fears of trade with China. Although Japan's economy is slow, you have to remember that there is still vastly more wealth in Japan than in any Western European nation, individual consumption is still incredibly massive, the population is gigantic, and the lack of foreign penetration in key industries would make any exporter salivate over the potential business to be gained.

For those who said that China is not a trustful trading partner, please check the fact. China is biggest trading partner with USA, EU, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Russia and so on. You guys do not have a clue about trading. Please do not pretend as you understand if you do not.

China's economy is built on cheap labour - there is nothing else that China has to offer.

@Kevin

But the problem is, cheap is what we want... Nobody cares about the workers....

It's a proposal to set up a working group to study the feasibility of............ a Asia-Pacific Free Trade Agreement (FTAAP)......It sounds longer than Lords of the Rings.

Even after a decade of hmming and ahhing, United States and Japan can't agree if the world is round.

The combined GDP's of China, Japan, and South Korea account for some 20 percent of the world's total, imports and exports alone account for just under 18% of global trade. In 2012 bilateral trade between China - Japan was valued at over $332bn, over the same 2012 period Japan - South Korea trade was worth over $106bn.

A trilateral free trade, or any FTA at least needs to be built politically on trust and friendship to achieve success.

President Xi Jinping, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and President Park Geun-Hye are struggling to agreeing a summit. Won't be holding my breath on this one, more Alice in Wonderland than Wall Street or a combination of the two.

Ha Ha that's so funny. China doesn't know how to work with its neighbours and doesn't know how to uphold international standards.

When China was finally allowed to join the World Trade Organization (WTO) it didn't stem the flow of counterfeit goods in any significant way despite repeated protests from the WTO.

In a political dispute with Japan, after the captain of a Chinese fishing boat which deliberately rammed a Japan Coast Guard vessel was taken into custody, China responded by cutting off the supply of crucial rare earth materials to Japan.

China is clearly concerned by the implications of the TPP. But does anyone really believe it would play fair in its proposed FTAAP? China just wants to make other countries economically dependent on it in order to use such dependency as a bargaining chip in its political arena.

Fool us once, shame on you; fool us twice, shame on us.